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Actively managed portfolio journey

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More ramblings;

AUDUSD pull back today will be shortlived, I dont believe we will see real AUD destruction until Trump takes office (how much of what he says is empty words?). Hence I am still bullish on the AUD in the very short term.

Looking to rotate out of AUDUSD in the next 2 weeks and will rotate it into a core holding of ASX:WIRE

Following this a subsequent 10% allocation will be loaded into the equal weighted SP500 (I believe we will see the rise of the S&P493)

Onwards and upwards
 
empty words , or building a position before starting negotiations , at least Xi hasn't openly ( to his face ) told Trump all he speaks are deceptions ( like he did to Biden )

now the AUD is liable to be collateral damage in the coming currency/trade war , a potential black swan will be a Japanese yen carry-trade debacle , that might really rattle the ( US ) dollar

i suggest staying agile ( ready to move in any direction as needed )

good luck
 
EOW Update

What a good week for the ASX!

Profit/Loss (Including closed positions YTD)





Slightly under performing the index! But what a contribution by ASX:AAL
Weightings



Thoughts & Feelings

Sharesight is artificially showing my speculative position as excessively overweight (AUDS is actually a trade I will update the tags to accommodate the 10% for trading.

As mentioned previously, I am thinking pretty consistently about whether ASX:VDBA fits the growth strategy I am aiming for. I think these funds would be better allocated into either a vanguard high growth or into other indexes. Income is not my target.

Its likely next week I will liquidate my AUDS position and rotate it into ASX:WIRE will update the blog accordingly.

So close to out performing the ASX200 (largely off the back of ASX:AAL) which has had an absolute gun run. I am still waiting for the ~10% dividend yield (at the initial entry price set for March).

Small caps also performing well however gains have been offset by the depreciation in the Australian Dollar (the position isnt currency hedged). Still keen on the equal weight as the subsequent 10% position to be entered in the backend of December / Mid January.

Set to receive a bonus from work that should enable this injection of capital.

I am also so proud of my exit from ASX:DUG which has had the ass fall out of itself. If we go back to a version of myself just 9 months ago I would of been inclined to not sell and to instead double down. My ability to cut emotions out has been invaluable over these last 3 months preventing some absolute value destruction.

Onwards & Upwards.
 
Position Update

Forgot to post yesterday.

On the 04/12/2024 I sold my AUDS at the open as I lost faith on the short term positive outlook of the AUDS. Simply put Trump is to active in his messaging, to much whipsawing and there appeared to be consistent resistance slamming it down at 0.651-0.653 thankfully I exited prior to the GDP data release (this was one of the reasons I sold at the open).

Sold out for an approx ~$10 loss on the position so very minimal in the grand scheme of things.

Funds were rotated into ASX:WIRE I entered yesterday morning with an average price of $13.203 after taking into account brokerage. This accounts for ~8.5% of my portfolio holdings bringing our resource position to a total weighting of 23.11%

A big part of the justification is the copper dream (I see long term merit in the play irrespective of what happens in China in the short term. We may see some pain but ultimately copper will be needed in the global economy irrespectively of global policy). Rio Tintos recent discussions is also a positive line as well as the huge lob BHP took at anglo america.

Additionally this provides really good international copper exposure:

38.8% Canadian
12.1% Australian
9.1% USA
8.4% China
5.1% Japan
xxxx various other global economies.

This cements my long term resource positions.

General Life;

I moved into a share house in October. I will be looking to lob a packet weighting of ~15% into an SP500 equal weighted fund within the next 2 months. This will likely be one of the final injections for a short period of time.

I am planning to travel Europe/USA for 6 weeks in July. Set to graduate my Bachelors degree in November 2025 completing a 3yr bachelors in 4yrs while working full time in Data Analytics at a major big four bank.

Hoping to establish myself very well financially prior to graduating. Am set to hit a pretty major milestone in the next 9 months which I will share if I reach it. Its unusual I find myself enjoying the workplace, I dont disdain it or see it is a liability for me my employment is more of a vocation then a job to pay my bills/fund my investments.

Lets hope it stays that way.

Until the EOW update

Onwards & Upwards.
 
EOW Update
One day late.

as mentioned above rotated out of my AUDS trade into WIRE.

Planning to add to the diversified growth (through an equal weight SP500 fund).

From here it appears we will likely be over our underweight threshold for the property sector and may top up in the new year/through the use of dividends. Lots to consider, lots to think about.

VDBA to be reviewed following it being held for 12 months (to get the capital gains discount). Not sure if it makes sense for this portfolio and my objectives (or dependent on the weightings at that point in time I may be able to rotate it into my "trading" categorisation).

Weightings



Profit/Loss



Under performing the index. ~3 months to fight back.

Onwards & Upwards.
 
yes a LOT to consider , in the current market/economy

good luck negotiating your way ( i am struggling sorting through the possibilities and potential strategies

BTW the big benchmark to beat is capital gains/losses

you might find winners in unlikely places , but they just take a while to be loved
 
EOW Update

Missed last week. So this is a fortnightly update.

Blood bath on equities. It has done substantial damage to our YTD returns. With the most pain being seen in the Resource and Property Sector for my portfolio.

I anticipate this sell off will be short-lived and is just awaiting the Chinese stimulus measures. I fully anticipate a rotation out of Financials in to Resources (as many have already speculated).

Stocks will trade ex-div in the next couple of weeks and these funds will be targeted towards the SP500 Equal Weight investment. With a target weighting of ~12.5% bringing our direct American Equity exposure to ~22.5%

2025 will represent the year of the value stocks and small caps in my opinion. The stars are aligning and I am very worried about the top heavy straight SP500. I don't think we will see the AI productivity gains that have been promised actually flow through for a few years.

Heres how we stand;

Weightings



Profit / Loss




Final Remarks

As seen above I have returned -9.33% for the resource sector and it is the biggest lag on my portfolio. I fully intend to rotate additional funds into the resource sector in January to bring my average down. Australian miners are always going to be necessary so this top up will be for (ASX:MVR)

Also pretty proud of my exits (exiting AUDS before an absolute blood bath, ASXUG, and a few of my other speculative holdings). My ability to risk manage has improved (or maybe im just getting lucky!)

Onwards & Upwards.
 
i will give you a hint

drops of under 10% ( from record highs ) are NOT a bloodbath ( unless you choose the highly-leveraged path )

in fact you can expect a 20% retrace every four or five years ( not counting the lesson common 40% plus crashes )

the good part is ... unless you buy at a peak ( at the time ) you will have had some gains to give back before that drop ( so your 40% downturn is liable to only do 20% to 15% damage to your investment capital )

you will have to learn which is luck , and which is instinct/judgment for yourself
 
EOW Update

Happy New Year!

I have seen some strength into the New Year. Just waiting on the inevitable Chinese stimulus. Assets went Ex-Div yielding me a fairly substantial amount of income to reinvest (well substantial in the context of this p/f).

As mentioned in other threads the next step is to enter into ASX:QUS this position will be entered in the coming weeks and it should account for ~10% of my portfolio. My thoughts are clear 2025 is a rate cut environment, the SP500 is to concentrated on big tech.

Lots of questions around Trump and how he will ensure a "weaker dollar" while using tariffs (don't know how he will achieve this)

Weightings




Profit / Loss



Forward Looking;

ASX:AAL is serving me well. Will be really keen to see there quarterly report. Tightly held registrar and a 57.37% return! Very happy with this one.

I think Trump brings further appeal back to the coal sector (however not enough for mines to want to invest in equipment outright). This specialization gives them an edge. Looking to hold this stock for the duration of the Trump presidency in the absence of other external factors (domestically).

I am also putting out some feelers around ASXRO not sure if I will buy any but some articles in Bloomberg have sparked my interest they outlined that 90% of drone production is coming from two companies in China.

Doing more research in to the company (have never held this company before).



Onwards & Upwards, until next week.
 
Positioning Update

As mentioned last week, and for the last 6 or so weeks I have been keen to enter the Equal Weighted SP500. This has now been entered;

Stock Code: ASX:HQUS
Average Buy Price: $42.780
Approx. P/F Weighting: 8.04%

I have opted to buy slightly less then I originally was. The cash will be used to deploy at a later date. The rationale behind my decision is above. The one variance is the decision to go currency hedged, I am worried about the AUD which could go either direction +/- 5% over the next 6 months.

Would rather not run the risk of a currency based loss on this holding. Happy to face higher fees as a result.

Updated Weighting




Comment

We are now underweight property by ~3%, may look to add a direct interest into a REIT later this year. Pondering and thinking on it. Will read the papers over the next few weeks and do more research before I finalize my opinions on this.

Onwards & Upwards

Bossmans
 
Captain_Chaza said:
What do you mean by Actively traded?
Any reason why you don't post Buying Dates?
Click to expand...
Most positions entered have a date - ASX : HQUS was entered today, I left it off by accident.

Really the title is no longer representative of the portfolio, its about 90% long and I trade with ~10% of capital. It is more of a growth portfolio.

When I refer to trading I mean short term positions based on recent news events/macro trends (I currently have no open trades that utilise the 10%), however I do have the cash sitting in my account, ill make sure to clearly distinguish a trade v.s. a long position going forward.
 
All good @BossMan. We just want to see that equity curve going up. Adding on dips is really going to compound nicely in ten years time. Keep it up when you can. Resources are definitely not the sector to be in at the moment due to strong USD and lower commodity prices. However they're essential for building infrastructure. The worm will turn one day a punch the early bird's lights out.
 
but who do you buy when the resources sector is weak .. that is the question

what won for me , by buying in 2011 to 2013 are over-priced currently ( with one exception )
 
EOW Update
Keeping it breath. HQUS purchased weightings are back. Just sitting on some cash still to be deployed at a correction at some stage. Otherwise long term we will be looking to add to a property holdings.

I like REIT(s) will likely take a direct exposure for ~5% of total portfolio to bring us overweight in the coming months. Will compile a short list over the coming weeks and watch closely.

None the less, here is how we stand.

Profit / Loss

Only Open Positions (LONG): 8.25% to date return (since the 3rd of March)
Including Closed Positions (incl. Trades): 8.96% to date return (since the 3rd of March)

Weightings can be found above.

Onwards & Upwards
 
divs4ever said:
but who do you buy when the resources sector is weak .. that is the question

what won for me , by buying in 2011 to 2013 are over-priced currently ( with one exception )
Click to expand...
sorry for better clarification ... are over-priced currently OR have been taken-over ( with one exception )
 
Just a note;

Was just looking at my portfolio and wanted an exact figure on the ~% that is invested in equities outside of Australia.

That figure after breaking down the components of VDBA and WIRE and adding the other straight international exposures sat at 33.77%

While I assess the strategy of this portfolio looking forward, I believe it to be prudent to get this international equity position to at least 40% in the first quarter of 2024. I do have a domestic bias and am resource heavy, comfortable to be at a 40/60 split.

Cheers,

Bossmans.
 
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