A1N - ARN Media

[So_Cynical]

One month on, are you still bullish on this stock So_Cynical?

Long term yes...however the flash crash of a few weeks ago really was a clear signal that there was weakness in the SP and that the most likely move was down, APN is a good example of how impatient ive become.

This time last year i would wait weeks sometimes for my low ball buys to get filled...now it seems like 1 or 2 days and the moneys burning a hole in my pocket, Perhaps 10 or 15 months down the road my buy in will look ok, certainly wasn't near enough to bottom for my liking.

 

[skc]

Flash crash mark II... what's wrong with this stock? And the spike down was caused by only 15,000 shares!

So_C, you should check the market depth before you dump your holding :nono:

 

[So_Cynical]

Flash crash mark II... what's wrong with this stock? And the spike down was caused by only 15,000 shares!

So_C, you should check the market depth before you dump your holding :nono:

LOL .. who would of thought :dunno: 2 flash crashes in 4 months, was this flash crash before the full year results announcement? cos it really wasn't that bad, not spectacular...but not bad.

• Revenue up 3%
• EBITDA up 6%
• Debt down Approx 15%
• Dividend back to pre GFC level

http://www.corporate-ir.net/Media_Files/IROL/14/144006/pres_2_25.pdf

 

[skc]

LOL .. who would of thought :dunno: 2 flash crashes in 4 months, was this flash crash before the full year results announcement? cos it really wasn't that bad, not spectacular...but not bad.

• Revenue up 3%
• EBITDA up 6%
• Debt down Approx 15%
• Dividend back to pre GFC level

http://www.corporate-ir.net/Media_Files/IROL/14/144006/pres_2_25.pdf

IT actually happened after the profit announcement. A few shares got panic dumped after results today... look at TSE and CWN.

 

[So_Cynical]

I took a little (long awaited) average down today @ 1.315 just a little one, so my CPS average didn't come down that much, its just that so often i regret not taking an average down that now its almost a must do..bottom for APN must be very close now, gross dividend yield approaching 10%.

Assuming the dividend amount holds of course. :dunno:

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I took a little (long awaited) average down today @ 1.315 just a little one, so my CPS average didn't come down that much, its just that so often i regret not taking an average down that now its almost a must do..bottom for APN must be very close now, gross dividend yield approaching 10%.

Assuming the dividend amount holds of course. :dunno:

Mate, I held this stock, some years ago when it was $3 or $4. It has good mastheads and radio and advertising, but it has gone nowhere. Good on you if you can pick the bottom, but set a stop loss. Technically it is cactus. I don't have today's price on this chart, but it's in a hell of a down trend.

gg

 

[So_Cynical]

As posted a few weeks ago in another thread...Orbis funds is continuing with their APN buying spree, according to today's 'substantial holder announcement' Orbis now holds over 14.1 % of APN.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110628/pdf/41zgkljg8hqcm7.pdf

 

[skc]

As posted a few weeks ago in another thread...Orbis funds is continuing with their APN buying spree, according to today's 'substantial holder announcement' Orbis now holds over 14.1 % of APN.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110628/pdf/41zgkljg8hqcm7.pdf

Buying spree met by selling spree...

Although it must be acknowledged that Orbis made a great call on SIP, and I regret not buying in when that was <30c.

 

[So_Cynical]

Buying spree met by selling spree...

Yeh the volume is still there...every day there are sellers. :dunno: has to stop at some point.....perhaps Orbis are in so deep now that they just have to keep buying and hope to capitalise on a take over, or maybe a board seat and a company break up, perhaps an asset sell off of some kind. :dunno:

 

[skc]

Yeh the volume is still there...every day there are sellers. :dunno: has to stop at some point.....perhaps Orbis are in so deep now that they just have to keep buying and hope to capitalise on a take over, or maybe a board seat and a company break up, perhaps an asset sell off of some kind. :dunno:

Pretty poor results. The share price has already fallen ~50% since the start of the year but evidently that was not enough...down another 10%. There is the cyclical issue of poor consumer spending / confidence, coupled with more structural issues threatening traditional media. It's one of those problems that no strategic reviews/managers/consultants/economists seems to be able to tackle effectively.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/apn-shares-dive-on-news-of-firsthalf-loss-20110818-1iyy9.html

 

[So_Cynical]

Pretty poor results. The share price has already fallen ~50% since the start of the year but evidently that was not enough...down another 10%. There is the cyclical issue of poor consumer spending / confidence, coupled with more structural issues threatening traditional media. It's one of those problems that no strategic reviews/managers/consultants/economists seems to be able to tackle effectively.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/apn-shares-dive-on-news-of-firsthalf-loss-20110818-1iyy9.html

My worst investment since CTO ~ a shocker...today was a bit of a yin and yang day for me with APN being the worst ASX200 performer and ABC being the best...both stocks i hold. :dunno: if the market gets hit tomorrow fair chance ill take my second and last average down into APN..or perhaps let sleeping dogs lie.

The radio and outdoor divisions had revenue growth and were profitable...APN still has substantial cash flows that are sustainable going forward.

 

[So_Cynical]

if the market gets hit tomorrow fair chance ill take my second and last average down into APN..or perhaps let sleeping dogs lie.

Bit the bullet and took my second and last small average down into APN today, waited for the afternoon sell off and got in at 0.755 bringing my average price down to $1.55. :crap:

So i have either made my worst trade in the last 12 months even worse, or made my overall APN position a little better...time is my greatest advantage over the market and of course time will tell all.

Big picture wise APN did grow their outdoor and radio revenues and still have total revenue of over 500 mill, a market cap of around 480 mill and debt of 650 mill, so the headline numbers aren't that bad...APN have a solid base to grow an on-line presence via the new acquisitions, the NZ Herald and there local papers and radio stations...i would argue a perfect base to leverage low cost on-line content off.

 

[So_Cynical]

Bit the bullet and took my second and last small average down into APN today, waited for the afternoon sell off and got in at 0.755 bringing my average price down to $1.55. :crap:

So i have either made my worst trade in the last 12 months even worse, or made my overall APN position a little better...time is my greatest advantage over the market and of course time will tell all.

The SP has held up ok...all in all and so far it looks like my last average down did catch bottom and so my situation with APN is slightly improved (a little better)

(28th-June-2011) As posted a few weeks ago in another thread...Orbis funds is continuing with their APN buying spree, according to today's 'substantial holder announcement' Orbis now holds over 14.1 % of APN.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110628/pdf/41zgkljg8hqcm7.pdf

Was good to see today's change in substantial holder announcement from Orbis funds showing that they are still believers, have continued to buy and now hold 15.24% of APN.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110912/pdf/42113mt1skgc3y.pdf

 

[sinner]

This stock, now 0.26.

How you going here So_Cynical?

 

[McLovin]

APN is not a bad busines, infact on an EBIT level it's holding up pretty well considering what's happening to print media and the wider economy. If you take out newspapers the other three divisions are all growing even at this point of the cycle. The regional papers business has held up really well, all things considered. This seems to be a trend, monopoly newspapers are not getting hit like papers in the Eastern capitals (The West Australian was the only paper to grow circulation last year). The APN share price is a function of the debt. Wouldn't interest me until they addressed that issue.

 

[So_Cynical]

This stock, now 0.26.

How you going here So_Cynical?

I have been absolutely spanked with this one...to demonstrate just how bad this stock has been for me, right now my portfolio has about 11% open profit, if i take APN out of the portfolio (pretend i never held it) that open profit would be over 19%

For me APN is the difference between an ok average result and a pretty darn good above average result.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have been absolutely spanked with this one...to demonstrate just how bad this stock has been for me, right now my portfolio has about 11% open profit, if i take APN out of the portfolio (pretend i never held it) that open profit would be over 19%

For me APN is the difference between an ok average result and a pretty darn good above average result.

totally agree sc

Many would have had similar experience with APN.

It has good assets, good workers, diversification, but the board are a pack of incompetents.

Best for it to go belly up, and the assets dispersed so that someone else can manage them better.

Possibly Fairfax, once Gina and Singleton take over.

gg

 

[sinner]

I have been absolutely spanked with this one...to demonstrate just how bad this stock has been for me, right now my portfolio has about 11% open profit, if i take APN out of the portfolio (pretend i never held it) that open profit would be over 19%

For me APN is the difference between an ok average result and a pretty darn good above average result.

At what point will you finally exit for a loss?

Surely it's unlikely at this point to do the 500% gain you need to get back to "breakeven" after N average downs?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

At what point will you finally exit for a loss?

Surely it's unlikely at this point to do the 500% gain you need to get back to "breakeven" after N average downs?

It may get a gee up if there is a takeover offer.

However it is controlled I believe from Eire, by a media conglomerate in deep trouble over there, and an asset sale and protection of directors' interests may predominate.

gg

 

[So_Cynical]

At what point will you finally exit for a loss?

Surely it's unlikely at this point to do the 500% gain you need to get back to "breakeven" after N average downs?

Cant sell now, not this cheap, it just wouldn't be right....a take over or break up is inevitable, the radio and outdoor businesses are doing ok, there's a time to sell and its not now...i must add that i have absolutely no expectation of recovering anything more than half my investment, its already a mental write off.

Anyway due to a recent real estate purchase i simply don't have the spare cash to trade at the moment so i wont have a tax bill for this financial year...so wont need to realise a capital loss that large this year, next year would be better.