Hey guys I am after some constructive critism regarding my trade with VGH.
I have posted this thead really late, as there is a strong chance that i will sell all my shares in this stock tomorrow wed, 17/03. If I do sell constructive critism regarding my entry strategy will be appreciated.
This stock has been in a sharp decline since nov/dec, has fallen 50%.
From the start of december to the end of feburary this stock traded with low volumes in a downtrend. From the middle of feb to recently the stock has been trading in high volumes ( by high volume i mean days which volume is in the largest 20% of volumes traded daily for the last year) with a sharp declining price. This appeared to be a firm dumping its holdings. on monday 15/03 the stock price took a jump of 3% at the start of the and proceeded to fall on high volume and spent the last couple hrs of the day on 0.83% above fridays close. Which is what I decided as a good price to buy, at 61c.
Why did I buy the stock. Last couple of weeks it looked to me as shares were being dumped. Then we have a high volume day and an increase in the share price, which indicated the firm/s had stopped dumping and demand was growing.
Often i see stocks in down trend, become cheap and suddenly jump as a big parcel is bought, thats what i thought started monday. i am trying to get on that sudden jump here.
stop loss, no actual stop loss set. but if the share price falls 3% from my purchase price i will reconsider the need to own the shares. if it falls 5%, i am wrong-sell at market quick. SET IN STONE. time stop of 3 days.
For this trade i am betting that the stock has been oversold, underpriced and the market will quickly realise this. Seems like a bold bet, gulp. if i am wrong and the share dumper was right and the down trend continues then i sell at a loss of 3%-7%. Most probably closer to 3% as it can be quickly verified in a day or two if entry reason is wrong.
If i am right i could win up to 25%, strongly consider selling at 10% up though (see how it looks if i get there), if i am wrong prob lose 4.5%ish.
so geting like 2:1 or better, so if i am right >35% (brokerage) i am a winner, seems bold once i have written it, hmmmmm
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Today the share price opened at 61.5c and proceeded to fall to 59.5c, 2.5% down from mondays close. stock traded at a high volume. This concerns me as there does not appear to be the demand i was betting on. I plan to sell tomorrow and cut my losses if there is any indication that demand is not strong.
Today, after market close, there was an anouncement saying a firm had been dumping shares for the last couple of weeks and had disposed of the last on monday,15/03.
That being the day which i thought the dumping had stopped as the share price had risen. Bad sign- reason for entering was incorrect. But the demand could still be there, why did it go up.
If the share price falls on wed 17/03 i am out, my reason for entering the trade was wrong.
So why did the share price rise on monday?
It had 4 days in the black in the past 5 weeks.
40% of the shares dumped over the last 2 weeks were dumped on this day.
I have posted this thead really late, as there is a strong chance that i will sell all my shares in this stock tomorrow wed, 17/03. If I do sell constructive critism regarding my entry strategy will be appreciated.
This stock has been in a sharp decline since nov/dec, has fallen 50%.
From the start of december to the end of feburary this stock traded with low volumes in a downtrend. From the middle of feb to recently the stock has been trading in high volumes ( by high volume i mean days which volume is in the largest 20% of volumes traded daily for the last year) with a sharp declining price. This appeared to be a firm dumping its holdings. on monday 15/03 the stock price took a jump of 3% at the start of the and proceeded to fall on high volume and spent the last couple hrs of the day on 0.83% above fridays close. Which is what I decided as a good price to buy, at 61c.
Why did I buy the stock. Last couple of weeks it looked to me as shares were being dumped. Then we have a high volume day and an increase in the share price, which indicated the firm/s had stopped dumping and demand was growing.
Often i see stocks in down trend, become cheap and suddenly jump as a big parcel is bought, thats what i thought started monday. i am trying to get on that sudden jump here.
stop loss, no actual stop loss set. but if the share price falls 3% from my purchase price i will reconsider the need to own the shares. if it falls 5%, i am wrong-sell at market quick. SET IN STONE. time stop of 3 days.
For this trade i am betting that the stock has been oversold, underpriced and the market will quickly realise this. Seems like a bold bet, gulp. if i am wrong and the share dumper was right and the down trend continues then i sell at a loss of 3%-7%. Most probably closer to 3% as it can be quickly verified in a day or two if entry reason is wrong.
If i am right i could win up to 25%, strongly consider selling at 10% up though (see how it looks if i get there), if i am wrong prob lose 4.5%ish.
so geting like 2:1 or better, so if i am right >35% (brokerage) i am a winner, seems bold once i have written it, hmmmmm
------------------------------------------------
Today the share price opened at 61.5c and proceeded to fall to 59.5c, 2.5% down from mondays close. stock traded at a high volume. This concerns me as there does not appear to be the demand i was betting on. I plan to sell tomorrow and cut my losses if there is any indication that demand is not strong.
Today, after market close, there was an anouncement saying a firm had been dumping shares for the last couple of weeks and had disposed of the last on monday,15/03.
That being the day which i thought the dumping had stopped as the share price had risen. Bad sign- reason for entering was incorrect. But the demand could still be there, why did it go up.
If the share price falls on wed 17/03 i am out, my reason for entering the trade was wrong.
So why did the share price rise on monday?
It had 4 days in the black in the past 5 weeks.
40% of the shares dumped over the last 2 weeks were dumped on this day.
. There is always just as many on the other side, clearly PPT have been the ones effecting it recently. You can tie yourself up in knots trying to rationalise who causes the next move & why. I guess thats why price action is helpful, its there and its a fact. No need to go deeper than that?
