API - Australian Pharmaceutical Industries

[Fartichoke]

Announcement yesterday upgrading forecast of 1H15 NPAT (up 30%).

Continued with good volume today as well, hit $1.42 intraday.

Any speculation as to possible targets or resistance levels for this bad boy?

 

[UMike]

No rush UMike, this still looks good..... (says he who sold before it ran!! )

Was sitting impatiently watching this and sold 3/5s at $1.32 as I thought the buyers were starting to drop off.
Thought I was pretty smart as it back tracked at the close yesterday.

Then it bounces to $1.42 today.

Fartichoke, I have no idea where this will go. I was sure I'd sell out anywhere over $1.40 but the buying to selling ratio remains at about 4:1 so it will be a hour to hour look at and reassess imo.

 

[UMike]

Totally out now at $1.85.

Wow This has been a great ride.

Really steadily up with very little retractment.

Good luck too all holders.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Good report from API showing profit growth while the share price is at the lower end of the yearly range. Start of a new trend maybe.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Bit of hindsight from last post up to present.
Gap closing move up then pullback. Higher turnover in the last three trading days with the second day appearing to have bought up the sell off. Bought at 1.63 and holding.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Disappointing higher volume sell off today. Looked promising for a new trend but both parties disagree.

 

[Triple B]

Disappointing higher volume sell off today. Looked promising for a new trend but both parties disagree.

Paper trading API
I Reckon Supply is coming From holders caught in last Gap Down.
Notice med vol push of supply 10 Days ago when price got above $1.65. weak holders seeing opportunity to get out of their losing trade.
May need time to absorb them.
May be over supply and down further ,Look for Short Pos?
What u think?

 

[Wysiwyg]

According to VAP between 1.44 and 1.45 was where most of the action over this base took place. RSI went over bought for the first time since May at precisely the recent peak. I don't place too much emphasis on oscillators though. You could be right with another flush out of excess supply. The path of least resistance. No short.

 

[Wysiwyg]

May be over supply and down further ,Look for Short Pos?
What u think?

Base held as did I and a swing up in progress. I think this reach will end before the recent 1.70 'ish high and find support at 1.55 - 1.60 before trending higher again. Fundamentally looks OK so one of the reasons I rode my (in hindsight lol) ill-timed entry at 1.63. Noticed large parcels were claimed at 1.53 and 1.60.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Oh and just noticed a franked dividend as a bonus for holding.

 

[Wysiwyg]

So killed my trade at 1.625 today for .5 cents less than I bought and less brokerage and less tax and plus a dividend. So up a small amount. Only loss was time. Memory implant is to avoid post trend entities.

 

[greggles]

So killed my trade at 1.625 today for .5 cents less than I bought and less brokerage and less tax and plus a dividend. So up a small amount. Only loss was time. Memory implant is to avoid post trend entities.

Lucky you got out of that trade. API's half year results released on 19 April were a disappointment and it's now languishing at lows not seen since early 2015. Currently trading at $1.23 and looking very unloved.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Lucky you got out of that trade. API's half year results released on 19 April were a disappointment and it's now languishing at lows not seen since early 2015. Currently trading at $1.23 and looking very unloved.

Yes there is no recompense in this game. Kill or be killed.

 

[notting]

Whilst we are on the subject of Pharmaceuticals, API had a cracking week last week, not so much today (7% down1.58)! Possibly, I dunno, somehow related to SIGs announcement today?
Maybe the market thought they were gonna get the Chemist Warehouse contract.

 

[Country Lad]

Possibly, I dunno, somehow related to SIGs announcement today?
Maybe the market thought they were gonna get the Chemist Warehouse contract.

More likely it was this part of Sigma's statement.

Mark Hooper commented “Trading conditions in May and June have been particularly weak. In addition, the introduction of the June PBS price adjustment had a much more significant impact than expected and was equal to the full year impact of PBS adjustments in April and October, which in the current operating environment cannot be offset. This continues to reinforce the need for government reform to introduce a margin floor for PBS wholesalers in line with the arrangements already enjoyed by pharmacists.”

Probably interpreted as also affecting API

 

[greggles]

API bottomed out around $1.30 in late April where it languished for about two months before recovering fairly rapidly after announcing that it was acquiring the assets of Clearskincare Clinics for $127.4 million, payable in installments over three years. Within three months API was back at $1.95.

Today it was down 9.8% after Credit Suisse downgraded API to an underperform rating from neutral and cut the price target on them from $1.63 to $1.55.

Looks like API may have further to fall from here.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Today it was down 9.8% after Credit Suisse downgraded API to an underperform rating from neutral and cut the price target on them from $1.63 to $1.55.

I think stock analysts have too much influence over price movements. By the way, what is their actual target buy price .... .

 

[Trav.]

This one came up in my scan the other day and looks interesting. I see that Sigma (SIG) rejected the merger offer a couple of weeks ago after API acquired ~13% of SIG and will be interesting to see what happens in the next month or so with these two. Maybe API will dump SIG shares and/or instigate a hostile takeover. I have no idea really but a interesting case to watch.

Weekly chart below and not held at the moment.

 

[The Triangle]

Well. I was wrong. Thought this would be a good buy in the current economic climate. Another company cancelling the dividend for no good reason other than the BS 'prudent capital management' excuse. Director and executive pay should be cut before the dividend is cut. It took to slide 12 in the presentation to say the dividend was cancelled.

Sold, and I think this will be well below $1 in the coming months. API board and directors obviously feel something bad is coming and if they feel they need to conserve cash. Their earnings were average - and the period reporting ended in February - before all the corona virus restrictions took place. Not looking good. The $60 million owing to the skincare clinics is going to kill API. They should cut their losses and divest this garbage now. The business is not making a penny and will probably be the last thing the government let's re-open. Hope they had business interruption insurances.

The only thing looking good is net debt. But sentiment is now shot for API. Should be a good opportunity to get in at significantly lower prices.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

WES must have worked something out with SOL (or vv)

Highlights
• Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) has submitted a non-binding, indicative offer to the Board of Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (API) to acquire 100 per cent of API’s shares outstanding for $1.38 cash per share by way of a scheme of arrangement.
• Proposal price represents a 21 per cent premium to API’s last close price of $1.145 per share.
• API’s major shareholder Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited (SOL), which owns 19.3 per cent of API’s shares outstanding, has agreed to vote in favour of the Proposal and has granted a call option in respect of its API shares in favour of Wesfarmers.
• API operates a portfolio of complementary wholesale and retail businesses in the growing health, wellbeing and beauty sector.
• Wesfarmers is well-positioned to bring capital and unique capabilities to support investment that will strengthen the competitive position of API and its community pharmacy partners.