Gold Daytraders

[Joules MM1]

very popular, in the non-trading media to have barfing lamas, puking camels and lumpy rhinos
just to name a few sketch-artist patterns.....but you can't beat that old stalwart cup n handle......

in the play book today on the low of the news was an inverted ratio of 1:127.2, you'll see it in a one min chart




lochness is fave tho

 

[Joules MM1]

scaling positions

1135's should offer first ripple (the handle?), silver is along for the ride also forming small flag



$SILVER volume says more of the same

 

[Joules MM1]

price action thus far since the base-build has been less than impressive, mostly due to finnagling in fx
even so, there are markers that suggest we'll keep ascending and giving some clear levels to protect

less than impressive also implies not a new uptrend, rather confirming a bounce of the monthly downtrend
....that doesnt mean price cannot break into an impulsive trend but i think it needs to happen soon, very soon

using silver as surrogate for support ideas ...by that i mean, if one is showing constructive signs and they begin to swap those constructive signs that bodes well for the current hourly to daily pricing (up)



hurdles that appear in the right place for a bounce should not appear in an impulsive uptrend
it's like seeing a sprinter in a marathon .....carrying a relay baton

 

[Joules MM1]

selling local equities causing XGD to close -4.2% today.... local stocks like GOR looking attractive again
the XGD's activity belies the struggling pullback both silver/xauusd

cleaned up the silver ratio....both patterns appear to have same qualities while the pullback in silver is far shallower
after i had posted the previous charts i shifted my view to 1107.5's as the level to sit out and wait
but i think the current hourly pricing is saying we have further upside to come

View attachment 63828

with $dx in retreat 2.4c ish over 4 days is making a considerable bias for more upside.....so far

 

[Joules MM1]

saturday

useful sites

http://www.timingcharts.com/

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS&p=d1

http://www.barchart.com/



Washington DC home of the CFTC
Washington DC is 14 hours behind AEST Melbourne
COT report is released 3.30pm fridays, eastern time

release addy: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm



note the blue boxes (BTO) less red boxes (STO) = last weeks positions sizes for the 3 most commonly reported groups

much simpler to visit TimingCharts.com and see contract size history for relative size and comparisons
Barchart.com is useful with the Swaps are seperated

:cup:

 

[Joules MM1]

sunday

silver can go as low as 14.98, hit the round number stops and still remain in an upward bias
that area is now a floor of previous higher acceptance zone, being 50% of the current swing
....sitting on the top of the 4 hour bars of two preceding fridays
if price fails to get upside momentum back thru 15.62's at that point that'll be another idea to sit out and watch
or switch to looking for STO opportunities, especially, I'd be looking for any fake move that gets pulled straight back into the current zone



silver was halted at the most recent swing high relationship (1:1 ratio), not a great sign for the bulls, you'd think
however, we're in a bounce, lottsa fakes, cftc report day, numbers get crunched, managers have mini marls etc etc
on previous charts you see i have that level marked in yellow as 16.32's it was a good marker to get sells on but it requires context, which game is on is the question....leading to the question is it a return to the larger downtrend or merely an opportunity to shake the tree .......get yerr cheap acorns



the two metals dont have to be parallel yet have similar structure and currently they are inverse to $DX
so if we keep that profile then that gives room to think more of the same (up)



events in AEST
Wednesday 10.30pm USD Core CPI m/m #'s
Friday 11:45am CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI
Friday 5:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Friday 10:30pm CAD Core CPI m/m

gold has held up at a smaller ratio on friday, that's a good sign for the same
direction (up) and I'm satisfied to play longside above 1107.5's:




old skool idea of the cup n handle is still a valid idea preferred on a larger time frame tho...

and we've travelled up 50+ points, no V reversal, lacking energy for a major swing low
....of the 50+ points so far the best move has been the 3 days 24th-27th for
31 points it also has provided best structure, so, we could summise that the following
incline has been weak discovery, again, stressing that time is now running out if
we're to get a genuine bullish phase underway.....
the cftc report for the 11th shows small increase in short sales for commercial
hedgers and a lift in longs for speculators, and while that favours the
downside, just, going back to the previous post, swaps have made a
quiet no riot cross that's worth remembering....tiny bully signals tiny bear signals



knowing the levels, playing the chop on small size, small points remains key
slice and not be sliced :samurai:

 

[Joules MM1]

Empire State index in August tumbles to worst level since recession

Published: Aug 17, 2015 8:30 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A reading of New York-area manufacturing conditions tumbled in August to the worst reading since the recession, the New York Fed said Monday. The Empire State general business conditions index nosedived to a reading of negative 14.9, from positive 3.9 in July. The index, on a scale where any positive number indicates improving conditions, was far worse than the positive 4.5 forecast in a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll. The new-orders component sank to negative 15.7 from negative 3.5, and the shipments index sank to negative 13.8 from positive 7.9. Oddly, perhaps, the index for future business activity climbed seven points to 33.6.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/em...-level-since-recession-2015-08-17?siteid=bnbh

deflationary #'s dont imply immediate direction.....only immediate set-up for the next move

woop! there it is .....

$dx swoops down, PM's whooshka .....$DAX drops a load

 

[Joules MM1]

are PM's manipulated ?

no one cares, mate!

i bought some longs on silver today......if the play is as-usual these should last a few days

i like those ratios; $DX at 70.7 $SILVER at 70.7


blue arrows=BTO, redlines=stops

a shake out at silverado cafe ?

 

[AverageJoe]

are PM's manipulated ?

no one cares, mate!

i bought some longs on silver today......if the play is as-usual these should last a few days

i like those ratios; $DX at 70.7 $SILVER at 70.7

View attachment 63894
blue arrows=BTO, redlines=stops

a shake out at silverado cafe ?

View attachment 63895

Interested your reason for buying Silver. I have only skimmed though some of your post but it would appear Fibs play an important role? I closed out my Silver short I took on Monday 17.8.15 last night but never could I imagine the drop was so severe. I did not get out at the low of yesterday and wish I did like any trader would. LOL

The trend on the daily is anything but bearish including the momentum. Price seems to have rested temporarily on a block of range traffic to the left. If there is a reversal to the upside from here than you have the potential for a higher trough. I still rather play the downside so just waiting for the next opportunity. Good luck.

 

[Joules MM1]

AJ

yeah, levels ...each one needs inspection and context...

 

[AverageJoe]

AJ

yeah, levels ...each one needs inspection and context...

Could you explain the Silver ratio 70.7?

I got out at just above 15bucks RN. Didn't bother scaling this time which I usually do and would still be in the trade. Murphy's law.

 

[Joules MM1]

Could you explain the Silver ratio 70.7?

I got out at just above 15bucks RN. Didn't bother scaling this time which I usually do and would still be in the trade. Murphy's law.

the remark is facetious...$dx inverse to silver at same length....one of those whack numbers you know if you mention the origin all manner of wafflers begin ....waffling

gold is def getting a bully on from what i can see and i think silver is getting shaken easily with low participation
and $dx had an interesting storyline into the recent failed dimple thing, question is how far can $dx rotate down...low 90's would be nice

murphy...yeah, waited till 2am for dax to roll over had to close ...... and what happens?.....pfft !!

 

[AverageJoe]

the remark is facetious...$dx inverse to silver at same length....one of those whack numbers you know if you mention the origin all manner of wafflers begin ....waffling

gold is def getting a bully on from what i can see and i think silver is getting shaken easily with low participation
and $dx had an interesting storyline into the recent failed dimple thing, question is how far can $dx rotate down...low 90's would be nice

murphy...yeah, waited till 2am for dax to roll over had to close ...... and what happens?.....pfft !!

Ok regarding Silver ratio. I don't look much at ratios but that Gold-oil ratio seems to give some leading signals.

I don't trade much silver/gold so not that familiar with the mechanics and time zones. I went short both Cable and Fiber London Open and scaled some off Cable but Fiber was so close to my first TP, missed by literally the spread. That's the market for yah!

FOMC post bedtime here so I hope to be out of everything. I have a position long EURJPY I took which was counter my fiber but this has a bigger target. Not so sure it is a good idea if it can survive Yellen's spike in prices across the board.

 

[Joules MM1]

....and todays train ride is brought to you by short-sell managers and the letters WTF



and if your'e pre-empting something southward, a word from an old stalwart:

 

[Joules MM1]

12th-August-2015, 08:04 PM

....

1135's should offer first ripple

good activity at this level today......but looks like the yellow ducks got teeth chewing out the red ducks...someone decided it's decision time....silver has not confirmed needs to brk 15.64's ...both have a sample impulsive activity and standard-fare pullbacks thus far

 

[Joules MM1]

gold made the move thru 1135/6's zone

silver completed it cup n handle bully pattern? ....looks likely to me and once we get the 15.64's it's also likely we'll get extra "ah-ha!" momo

the panic to BTO and panic to BTC should become obvious ....:eek3::car:

should

yep, it's a crud word, but, hey....

 

[Joules MM1]

...there's two types of liquidity; buy-side and sell-side

washing machine is running hot today....when it goes into soak mode, the stains are out....

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=d1

1135/6's level goes

 

[Joules MM1]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=12971&page=13&p=879062&viewfull=1#post879062

note the times of cftc release for COT report and think on likely activity surrounding the release

keep in mind that if youre long PM's they are prone to quick sells too when equities are in a strong sell mode
maybe due to liquidity requirements sets up quick whips, even so, current cycle up should remain intact

ideas

 

[Joules MM1]

it's friday, cftc dance around day

nice smack down into weak longs....are we all done now?

awaiting this weeks winning lottery numbers compliments of swaps n producers
will the big cheeses make tony hadlee sing one more round of

always.believe.in.your.soah-hole...you've.got.the.power.to.burn....you're-in-dees-stucta-buuurrrllll....

please make the bad man stop....

 

[AverageJoe]

....and todays train ride is brought to you by short-sell managers and the letters WTF

View attachment 63909

and if your'e pre-empting something southward, a word from an old stalwart:

View attachment 63910

Did he also advice never to take things for granted? Silver just hit that resistance and rotated back down. I sure hope Gold do not follow its poor cousin as I bought some more gold stocks today!

1162.68 gold could be a tough level to close above