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looking at several time scales
looking for the first swing against the upmove to figure A GTFO or B to add or C to STO in the wide range
Gold Daytraders
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
- Start date
looking at several time scales
looking for the first swing against the upmove to figure A GTFO or B to add or C to STO in the wide range
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pause for effect as they say
US equities opened 19 mins ago ......no news on the blower
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none of this is any use unless it (re)frames the next (larger) phase of play
don't be the second mouse to the cheese only to find the cheese is poisoned...
please review the daily chart ratios and measures i placed here:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=2366&page=564&p=877286&viewfull=1#post877286
note the ratios have held firm when compared the current live $DX activity
the $DX has provided a solid background thus far for thinking that the upside holds less risk than the downside
or put another way, currently, in the lower time scales, there is greater risk to STO's than BTO's
size accordingly
keep clear that both $GOLD and $DX may rise together over long period of time and be confounding
correlation is not causation and often coincidental, your regime for trading must be robust enough that you are
alerted to when that correlation is no longer effective and what that might mean for your planning
this has been a live play by play summary that include some of the technique i have honed
I specifically do not use indicia of any kind on the gold trade (synthetic instrument) other than various ad-hoc auctioning instruments and price lengths .....it's a good idea to wear a helmet when riding a bike, but, when riding a bike in the 'running of the bulls' the helmet is kinda limited
if price breaks down thru 1091's i'll be out for the weekend .....the days trades give plenty of points in the bag after scaling...the main point is to get a handle on the larger picture, reduce risk and know where to add for the longer ride, to get clear markers
don't be the second mouse to the cheese only to find the cheese is poisoned...
please review the daily chart ratios and measures i placed here:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=2366&page=564&p=877286&viewfull=1#post877286
note the ratios have held firm when compared the current live $DX activity
the $DX has provided a solid background thus far for thinking that the upside holds less risk than the downside
or put another way, currently, in the lower time scales, there is greater risk to STO's than BTO's
size accordingly
keep clear that both $GOLD and $DX may rise together over long period of time and be confounding
correlation is not causation and often coincidental, your regime for trading must be robust enough that you are
alerted to when that correlation is no longer effective and what that might mean for your planning
this has been a live play by play summary that include some of the technique i have honed
I specifically do not use indicia of any kind on the gold trade (synthetic instrument) other than various ad-hoc auctioning instruments and price lengths .....it's a good idea to wear a helmet when riding a bike, but, when riding a bike in the 'running of the bulls' the helmet is kinda limited
if price breaks down thru 1091's i'll be out for the weekend .....the days trades give plenty of points in the bag after scaling...the main point is to get a handle on the larger picture, reduce risk and know where to add for the longer ride, to get clear markers
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marker?
www.finviz.com heatmap to the stars!
price held in a nice side channel into saturday,
while the weekly view gives no clear signal there are occasions,
even in a ripping uptrend, those signals were absent ....the contract size is the key marker, we may need another face-tearing slalom to resolve the current phase of psychology and liquidity
russian dolls
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sunday
this caught my eye
the question is, how far back does any technique have to travel to gain a reasonable framework for the technique to be effective, how far back to frame each part of a technique to each size of market play,
or, looking forward, how far forward can a technique focus, sharply enough, to play chop for the smaller time frame ?
to use an analogy, think of a an Olympic relay that occurs on one day
what kind of practice does a 800m sprinter need to do to become a 100m sprinter
what type of things does a 100m sprinter need to do to be a 800m sprinter
the market does not suit a 100m sprinter all the time, nor a 800m sprinter all the time
and you as a trader need to know the length of the race and whom you are racing with and against
before, during and after the race ....this is a limited analogy in that it supposes the auction is linear
and I have likened the auction to a rugby match where your opponent is coming at you with the ball, at speed,
twice your size, your job is to stop him, he drops the right shoulder and steps left...it's a no-win, you didnt get pummeled (that's nice!) and he scores the try (that's not!) notwithstanding that a rugby game has four corners and time limits, the dynamics of an auction has advantages that are themselves a disadvantage used incorrectly
summised incorrectly, engaged incorrectly, framed incorrectly, given incorrect context
rugby players have a specific-sized ball rule, traders screw up by constantly carrying the wrong sized ball,
a conversation all to itself......
so these are basic questions, to frame the current phase of play, about how to deal with intent, stop-runs,
news whips, completing set-ups, creating a play, true breaks, false break, when to scale most vigorously, when to add, when price is impulsively traveling, when price is being moved with intent, when money is
moving in or out, moving in and out for an upcoming release, when to say I don't know,
when to sit on your hands during games within games, phases within phases, building ideas on what has priority,
etc etc
again, i ask how far back do we need to look
the reason is size of money
i keep hammering about relative size and context
part of the reason some technicians had success, huge success, in some phases of play is simply due to bringing the greatest leverage they could to one specific stage of play, for example, Hurst understood that the further out in his Sigma bands price traveled, the higher the probabilities that major money would bring itself to the table to take a major stake in the buy-side game when price slumped, regardless of the immediacy of causality that money would come into play, hence, someones account is buying all that panic selling, someones selling to all that bargain buying, at sigma 1 the most likely bids are retail with the reactive time span of a latte,
at sigma 5 deep pockets with a time span of a decade, probably, maybe longer.....
so, if that has truth on that larger time scale, how can that be focused on intraday, what are the markers that give a clue to holding positions into the next time scale....once these are identified, they need to be dissected backwards, to bring balance
relative size + context + balance
understand the relative size of a previous set of phases, focusing each level phase of price (price width)
find context for each phase and price width
when is context different, how is it different for each size of price width
width is different to length, in that, price can travel the same distance twice and hint that that is a completion
but if the context is different and not interpreted correctly then your balance is lost, that is, you have become emotively attached to a previous phase of play without realising you are now in that emotive logic
every single execution has context as it has its own size, bid v offer, every single execution has its own intent to do business in a certain zone, whether its framed as value or framed as a function of price, or simply emotive logic ....being aware that not every single bid is met by a single offer, that multiple bids can be met by a single offer, that a single bid (size) can be filled by multiple offers (same size in total) and this alone clearly tells us of the dynamics of many ideas of price fulfilling one single idea of price...in an auction process where many traders are going to make their daily bread, lose a truck load, oversize, get divorced, lose the house, be in debt
there is no such thing as laziness, there is only such a thing as personal accountability
you cannot define for a person what laziness is, you can define for someone what personal accountability is
I can prove that beyond opinion, in that, your brain can grasp a firm idea by rules and guidelines what accountability actually is in a tangible, present-day, in-the-moment, actionable and realisable way that can bring effective results
lazyness conversely is a summation of something abstract, it lends to judgement and does not allow one to progress, rather regress, it does not seek to do anything constructive
traders are mostly one of two things ignorant or slightly ignorant = price discovery
it is neither good nor bad, right nor wrong only extent
applying my own accountability i do all the parts I have placed here for you to read
balance is the practice of asking the question of what-if in any given phase of play, within each size of play, the context for that play
there must be a tool that allows balance to fruition, for me the basic tool is employing a wide array of ratios
however, again, not applied in ad-hoc way, not in a mechanical way, not in any rigidity
rather, in a structural way that pushes to understand the auction in terms of the time of the day, week, month
to assist in affirming or disseminating what kind type of liquidity is at work, at what point is retail money stepping in, manager money at work, deep pockets at work.....keeping alive the idea that these things are not absolute, in other words, framing probabilities is mostly yet not always about understanding the auction activity, sometimes the trade is a memory set-up of experience, experience being a sum of memory, like an unconscious competence (a different conversation to this one) this array of ratios allow for balance, what should be happening, what is happening, what would typically happen, phases within phases, allowing time to think without having the tool do the thinking for me
tools don't fail traders do, patterns don't fail traders do, trend-lines are just lines on a chart, they dont fail, the trader who drew them fails, bars don't open or close too early traders do, moving averages dont mislead, trader misunderstand, traders oversize and fail, triangles on a chart are only triangle until they're no longer that shape
like head and shoulders, they're an attempt to force price into an idea, a rush to a conclusion and those conclusions do more damage when they're bear out in a traders favour as the next time, when the trader gets beaten up does it become apparent that the previous occasion was coincidental
it is as much to get into your head about failure in trade execution as it is to have fear of smoking to cause you cancer, to have fear that stepping off a 100 storied building without a rope is to over-sizing your positions
your accountability lays within how you understand and internalize each part of your knowledge
to just know something is not enough
as much as it is the current activity that can cause damage, non-activity needs it's own context and understanding....what is stopping activity...what do they see that I don't, what's causing hesitation, what's affecting momentum.....ideally these things are read in the bars and not thru a derivative of price
rigidity of any format, or technique, breaks down where the dynamics of price transitions or rotates to a new phase within a larger phase
a challenge in posting ideas in forums is correct language, as language regardless of how subtle or pedantic it may seem, elicits specific focus that we each have whether inate or practiced, you may interpret me to mean one thing and go on a journey from there.....in that instance there is a vacuum at play
the consequences of vacuum, or vacuous conversation cannot be underestimated
it is the responsibility of the writer to be absolutely clear, concise and indepth to the point of nauseating boredom for the reader, as much as it is the responsibility to play his/her own part on narrating what they think is being conveyed
I am flippant and rude of any piece that i think to be shallow and dangerous for readers if that piece clearly purports itself to be knowledgeable in the trading game
again, language, as any surgeon or barrister shall attest, plays such a vital role in posting as it does in self-talk during a trading session,
a trader may not need to elocute outloud what is unfurling, yet, one requires a definitive dialogue when conveying to another person what their ideas are, this alone is the area where well-intentioned conversations have led to basic failings for the recipient, not withstanding, in many instances, the recipient may build a whole framework of thinking based on those conversations or a single idea, especially where the starting details or ending details are not apparent
most traders are asking questions to arrive at most-meaningful answers
most students of the auction process are asking questions of when something is the most-meaningless
FT71's 3 phases of a trader:
those 3 phases are true of a student of the markets too, long before any bet is placed, long before any trade is placed, those 3 phases are true in any endeavor, they are endogenous to us as human beings
the rush to be right and look good are part of what most of us bring to the auction process, our rubbish baggage.
you should not assume, reading any text on trading, that you understand what is being said in its entirety, with all the parts, nuances, practiced (or otherwise) skill-sets the writer has or has placed in front of you,
it is your responsibility to ask at what point a trading idea breaks down to its weakest point
first, define how many moving parts are in the text, then begin to dissect each part, thinking thru each part, taking time to suppose possibilities for each part so you can move to the probabilities of weakness/strength that exists within each part,
at that point you have your own cognitive logic to forward test, you are creating your own balance, you are creating your own context, you are building your own unconscious competence and building the rules for your own accountability
I am not a tutor.
re-commend this thought process:
FT71's 3 phases of a trader:
sources:
Dr Brett Steenbarger
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/getting-past-frustration-of-trading.html
FT71
https://twitter.com/futurestrader71
this caught my eye
Brett Steenbarger said:
the question is, how far back does any technique have to travel to gain a reasonable framework for the technique to be effective, how far back to frame each part of a technique to each size of market play,
or, looking forward, how far forward can a technique focus, sharply enough, to play chop for the smaller time frame ?
to use an analogy, think of a an Olympic relay that occurs on one day
what kind of practice does a 800m sprinter need to do to become a 100m sprinter
what type of things does a 100m sprinter need to do to be a 800m sprinter
the market does not suit a 100m sprinter all the time, nor a 800m sprinter all the time
and you as a trader need to know the length of the race and whom you are racing with and against
before, during and after the race ....this is a limited analogy in that it supposes the auction is linear
and I have likened the auction to a rugby match where your opponent is coming at you with the ball, at speed,
twice your size, your job is to stop him, he drops the right shoulder and steps left...it's a no-win, you didnt get pummeled (that's nice!) and he scores the try (that's not!) notwithstanding that a rugby game has four corners and time limits, the dynamics of an auction has advantages that are themselves a disadvantage used incorrectly
summised incorrectly, engaged incorrectly, framed incorrectly, given incorrect context
rugby players have a specific-sized ball rule, traders screw up by constantly carrying the wrong sized ball,
a conversation all to itself......
so these are basic questions, to frame the current phase of play, about how to deal with intent, stop-runs,
news whips, completing set-ups, creating a play, true breaks, false break, when to scale most vigorously, when to add, when price is impulsively traveling, when price is being moved with intent, when money is
moving in or out, moving in and out for an upcoming release, when to say I don't know,
when to sit on your hands during games within games, phases within phases, building ideas on what has priority,
etc etc
again, i ask how far back do we need to look
the reason is size of money
i keep hammering about relative size and context
part of the reason some technicians had success, huge success, in some phases of play is simply due to bringing the greatest leverage they could to one specific stage of play, for example, Hurst understood that the further out in his Sigma bands price traveled, the higher the probabilities that major money would bring itself to the table to take a major stake in the buy-side game when price slumped, regardless of the immediacy of causality that money would come into play, hence, someones account is buying all that panic selling, someones selling to all that bargain buying, at sigma 1 the most likely bids are retail with the reactive time span of a latte,
at sigma 5 deep pockets with a time span of a decade, probably, maybe longer.....
so, if that has truth on that larger time scale, how can that be focused on intraday, what are the markers that give a clue to holding positions into the next time scale....once these are identified, they need to be dissected backwards, to bring balance
relative size + context + balance
understand the relative size of a previous set of phases, focusing each level phase of price (price width)
find context for each phase and price width
when is context different, how is it different for each size of price width
width is different to length, in that, price can travel the same distance twice and hint that that is a completion
but if the context is different and not interpreted correctly then your balance is lost, that is, you have become emotively attached to a previous phase of play without realising you are now in that emotive logic
every single execution has context as it has its own size, bid v offer, every single execution has its own intent to do business in a certain zone, whether its framed as value or framed as a function of price, or simply emotive logic ....being aware that not every single bid is met by a single offer, that multiple bids can be met by a single offer, that a single bid (size) can be filled by multiple offers (same size in total) and this alone clearly tells us of the dynamics of many ideas of price fulfilling one single idea of price...in an auction process where many traders are going to make their daily bread, lose a truck load, oversize, get divorced, lose the house, be in debt
there is no such thing as laziness, there is only such a thing as personal accountability
you cannot define for a person what laziness is, you can define for someone what personal accountability is
I can prove that beyond opinion, in that, your brain can grasp a firm idea by rules and guidelines what accountability actually is in a tangible, present-day, in-the-moment, actionable and realisable way that can bring effective results
lazyness conversely is a summation of something abstract, it lends to judgement and does not allow one to progress, rather regress, it does not seek to do anything constructive
traders are mostly one of two things ignorant or slightly ignorant = price discovery
it is neither good nor bad, right nor wrong only extent
applying my own accountability i do all the parts I have placed here for you to read
balance is the practice of asking the question of what-if in any given phase of play, within each size of play, the context for that play
there must be a tool that allows balance to fruition, for me the basic tool is employing a wide array of ratios
however, again, not applied in ad-hoc way, not in a mechanical way, not in any rigidity
rather, in a structural way that pushes to understand the auction in terms of the time of the day, week, month
to assist in affirming or disseminating what kind type of liquidity is at work, at what point is retail money stepping in, manager money at work, deep pockets at work.....keeping alive the idea that these things are not absolute, in other words, framing probabilities is mostly yet not always about understanding the auction activity, sometimes the trade is a memory set-up of experience, experience being a sum of memory, like an unconscious competence (a different conversation to this one) this array of ratios allow for balance, what should be happening, what is happening, what would typically happen, phases within phases, allowing time to think without having the tool do the thinking for me
tools don't fail traders do, patterns don't fail traders do, trend-lines are just lines on a chart, they dont fail, the trader who drew them fails, bars don't open or close too early traders do, moving averages dont mislead, trader misunderstand, traders oversize and fail, triangles on a chart are only triangle until they're no longer that shape
like head and shoulders, they're an attempt to force price into an idea, a rush to a conclusion and those conclusions do more damage when they're bear out in a traders favour as the next time, when the trader gets beaten up does it become apparent that the previous occasion was coincidental
it is as much to get into your head about failure in trade execution as it is to have fear of smoking to cause you cancer, to have fear that stepping off a 100 storied building without a rope is to over-sizing your positions
your accountability lays within how you understand and internalize each part of your knowledge
to just know something is not enough
as much as it is the current activity that can cause damage, non-activity needs it's own context and understanding....what is stopping activity...what do they see that I don't, what's causing hesitation, what's affecting momentum.....ideally these things are read in the bars and not thru a derivative of price
rigidity of any format, or technique, breaks down where the dynamics of price transitions or rotates to a new phase within a larger phase
a challenge in posting ideas in forums is correct language, as language regardless of how subtle or pedantic it may seem, elicits specific focus that we each have whether inate or practiced, you may interpret me to mean one thing and go on a journey from there.....in that instance there is a vacuum at play
the consequences of vacuum, or vacuous conversation cannot be underestimated
it is the responsibility of the writer to be absolutely clear, concise and indepth to the point of nauseating boredom for the reader, as much as it is the responsibility to play his/her own part on narrating what they think is being conveyed
I am flippant and rude of any piece that i think to be shallow and dangerous for readers if that piece clearly purports itself to be knowledgeable in the trading game
again, language, as any surgeon or barrister shall attest, plays such a vital role in posting as it does in self-talk during a trading session,
a trader may not need to elocute outloud what is unfurling, yet, one requires a definitive dialogue when conveying to another person what their ideas are, this alone is the area where well-intentioned conversations have led to basic failings for the recipient, not withstanding, in many instances, the recipient may build a whole framework of thinking based on those conversations or a single idea, especially where the starting details or ending details are not apparent
most traders are asking questions to arrive at most-meaningful answers
most students of the auction process are asking questions of when something is the most-meaningless
FT71's 3 phases of a trader:
Trader FT71 said:
those 3 phases are true of a student of the markets too, long before any bet is placed, long before any trade is placed, those 3 phases are true in any endeavor, they are endogenous to us as human beings
the rush to be right and look good are part of what most of us bring to the auction process, our rubbish baggage.
you should not assume, reading any text on trading, that you understand what is being said in its entirety, with all the parts, nuances, practiced (or otherwise) skill-sets the writer has or has placed in front of you,
it is your responsibility to ask at what point a trading idea breaks down to its weakest point
first, define how many moving parts are in the text, then begin to dissect each part, thinking thru each part, taking time to suppose possibilities for each part so you can move to the probabilities of weakness/strength that exists within each part,
at that point you have your own cognitive logic to forward test, you are creating your own balance, you are creating your own context, you are building your own unconscious competence and building the rules for your own accountability
I am not a tutor.
re-commend this thought process:
FT71's 3 phases of a trader:
Trader FT71 said:
sources:
Dr Brett Steenbarger
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/getting-past-frustration-of-trading.html
FT71
https://twitter.com/futurestrader71
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Lots of interesting stuff in there Joules ......... +1 on anything by Brett Steenbarger
Good to have you posting again
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up'natum, Barney 
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what's the cost of entry?
giving up a few points is the cost of education.....holding the 50% swing of friday is good sign for longs
giving up a few points is the cost of education.....holding the 50% swing of friday is good sign for longs
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some of the upmoves have excellent qualities ......stuck in this tight range the energy keeps building
$DX broke its ratio and we maybe about to go thru a few months where both $GOLD and $DX run parallel
NFP produced more yawns than volaitility
$DX broke its ratio and we maybe about to go thru a few months where both $GOLD and $DX run parallel
NFP produced more yawns than volaitility
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don't usually stay up this late....suffice to say last cupla day giving more clues we're heading back up for a weekly/monthly swing....todays is also a turn-date so worth the extra time to get set if possible
or.....more of this......
silver is playing along.....could be Morecambe and Wise...suspect we'll know monday
or.....more of this......
silver is playing along.....could be Morecambe and Wise...suspect we'll know monday
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sunday
last week both thursday/friday nights i traded into early hours, friday as a turn-date for PM's
and that the Non-Farm Pays #'s were due it seemed a good time to watch how the plays were setting up
....not everything is a play but given the time and event of the NFP #'s this was worth the watch
I had a BTO on friday on the SPX that had a nice/rare set-up that called for an up-swing,
price hit the level and immediately begun to move up, not ideally, still, moving up...
i had small size, waited to see how well it would develop,
a STC immediately below the entry and a view to BTO (the prob of a fake are low based on this technique)
my technique also says this play calls for a STO if price reverses thru the BTO entry
at this point i am running 30 second bars
the action going up from the entry developed in such a way that memory said be ready for this to reverse
as it lost energy very quickly and begun to find the bid being clearly swamped
at the first sign of this i began to scale, in auto mode rather than anything else,
the entry level was broken, i reversed - STO
(i'll come back to the point for the above)
gold has not made good on its anecdotal promise to lift......at least not yet
the NFP #'s produced a whizzer of nothing, but, interestingly, that didnt mean that liquidity wasnt being put to work
and i had to wait a while to see new bids come into gold, price began to look constructive again
a small series of lower highs with each lift looking constructive and each fall overlapping
as if it was easier to tell a story of price being bought up and allowed to rotate down
this lends itself to an idea that strength remains with the bid (commercials) and allowed to rotate down (small speculators)
I tend to think of liquidity entering as much to do with when rather than just where and how much
not really so much interested in why on every occasion, suffice to say, positive money flows that dont happen when it has
on previous occasions maybe telling as much as when it does rip in on news
in essence, as news does not drive a trend, rather, news is subjugative of trend, while a news rip is often the set-up for the real intent
(in many instances on gold) when it does not rip up setting up a sell, then, it is a whole different story,
just as valid just as worth inspecting, especially so, asking, how does it set up context, what's making this buy-side liquidity
come in now instead of on the news
when the NFP's came out there was muted reaction, so, no sell-side liquidity of any notable size
....conspicuous by your absence etc etc
what's interesting is not about the reaction to NFP's looking great or looking lousy, it is the non-reaction at all
that maybe saying one group is no longer committed to buying while the other side is no longer committed to selling strength
if I look back to june/july 2014 that swing low is the only recent previous occasion when small speculators are
nett short (-10.4k) contracts
the last 7 weeks of reporting from timingcharts.com for COT report goes like this:
commercial hedgers
-100k
-72k
-54k
-48.4k
-21.5k
-15.5k
-14.8k
the last 7 weeks of reporting from timingcharts.com for COT report goes like this:
small speculators
5.7K
7.6k
2.1k
.6k
-6.7k
-9.2k
-15k
out of the 7 week sample (pointless going further back, regardless of technique, one should see the trend within trend)
it is clear to see intent from a contract point of view
does that mean an imminent (monday 10th) swing north is coming, no, absolutely not.....
although I was/am clearly expecting a time-window to close soon
this is like the example of the friday trade on the spx, except that I'm looking to get set for the much larger swing north
on a weekly to monthly basis, but, insistantly, regardless the anecdotal bias, levels be levels!!
do the numbers mean we are going to see a repeat of the lift of june/july 2014, no, not necessarily, not right away
and if not right away does that mean more downside and if so what kind of downside?
probably swift, very swift series of small jabs, quicker than the flush that recently brought gold to its current zone
levels are clear and as the commercials basically hold all the fire power at this point and are making the trend
I need to stick to the only two levels that mean anything right now while playing smaller internal jabs of 2-4 points
so, if we suddenly move out of the zone, adjusting the technique to allow for much wider price length
from bifocals to binoculars, fork to shovel, knife to chainsaw
but the chop is telling a story.....it's always telling a story.....gold is one of those beasts that doesnt "just" bring liquidity
it's a (contemporary pun alert) game of throttles!! #sorrynotsorry
.....liquidity flowing (buy-side or sell-side)is a set-up for the next move
we have two groups,
not inc the managers who are mandated to trend-follow
commercials are more inclined to actions of cognitive logic,
small speculators are more inclined to reactions emotive logic
we have two groups,
one more likely to buy (await) cheap supply and buy-to-close shorts
one more likely to sell-to-open lows in chop
we have two groups
one looking for much wider time scale, sit and wait once in position
one itchy to look good and be right,
we have two groups,
one that makes trend
one that gets trapped in positions that force them to exit at a loss
we have two groups on two different time scales and size of money
the point is if the commercials aren't getting enough supply, they can easily open fire and down we go,
the small speculators will then be adamantly tied to sell side (STO and STC)
currently daily basis chart displays a pennant hinting at more of the same direction but it's not that much different to the play
coming out of the June 2014 low anecdotally, plus, we have extended sells in CL, copper and platinum with a raging USD in the background
deflation is ripe and equities keep their extreme credit-debt-driven trends intact ....not our grandfathers markets, for sure
I have two levels on the downside that have standard measures, 1045 and 1054 (favouring 1045's)
these are basic ratios and gold is one instrument that lends itself to ratios
technically, if youre inclined to it, there's now a small penanty thing formed,
a lot of energy is now trapped inside this zone, if it can lift on its own then that bodes well for longs
but if we fail the recent low it's I expect the pace to be pretty quick, with or without news
given the extent of the commercials and speculators face-ripping moves should be considered normal
going back the opening paragraph, the levels are clearly defined at the moment, all other things aside,
if commercials are going to take price lower, then, lower we go and no price travels in one direction forever
executing cognitive logic less exhausting than emotive logic
"There's only one thing certain in life, Blondini, and that's doubt .. I think." GoodBye PorkPie
last week both thursday/friday nights i traded into early hours, friday as a turn-date for PM's
and that the Non-Farm Pays #'s were due it seemed a good time to watch how the plays were setting up
....not everything is a play but given the time and event of the NFP #'s this was worth the watch
I had a BTO on friday on the SPX that had a nice/rare set-up that called for an up-swing,
price hit the level and immediately begun to move up, not ideally, still, moving up...
i had small size, waited to see how well it would develop,
a STC immediately below the entry and a view to BTO (the prob of a fake are low based on this technique)
my technique also says this play calls for a STO if price reverses thru the BTO entry
at this point i am running 30 second bars
the action going up from the entry developed in such a way that memory said be ready for this to reverse
as it lost energy very quickly and begun to find the bid being clearly swamped
at the first sign of this i began to scale, in auto mode rather than anything else,
the entry level was broken, i reversed - STO
(i'll come back to the point for the above)
gold has not made good on its anecdotal promise to lift......at least not yet
the NFP #'s produced a whizzer of nothing, but, interestingly, that didnt mean that liquidity wasnt being put to work
and i had to wait a while to see new bids come into gold, price began to look constructive again
a small series of lower highs with each lift looking constructive and each fall overlapping
as if it was easier to tell a story of price being bought up and allowed to rotate down
this lends itself to an idea that strength remains with the bid (commercials) and allowed to rotate down (small speculators)
I tend to think of liquidity entering as much to do with when rather than just where and how much
not really so much interested in why on every occasion, suffice to say, positive money flows that dont happen when it has
on previous occasions maybe telling as much as when it does rip in on news
in essence, as news does not drive a trend, rather, news is subjugative of trend, while a news rip is often the set-up for the real intent
(in many instances on gold) when it does not rip up setting up a sell, then, it is a whole different story,
just as valid just as worth inspecting, especially so, asking, how does it set up context, what's making this buy-side liquidity
come in now instead of on the news
when the NFP's came out there was muted reaction, so, no sell-side liquidity of any notable size
....conspicuous by your absence etc etc
what's interesting is not about the reaction to NFP's looking great or looking lousy, it is the non-reaction at all
that maybe saying one group is no longer committed to buying while the other side is no longer committed to selling strength
if I look back to june/july 2014 that swing low is the only recent previous occasion when small speculators are
nett short (-10.4k) contracts
the last 7 weeks of reporting from timingcharts.com for COT report goes like this:
commercial hedgers
-100k
-72k
-54k
-48.4k
-21.5k
-15.5k
-14.8k
the last 7 weeks of reporting from timingcharts.com for COT report goes like this:
small speculators
5.7K
7.6k
2.1k
.6k
-6.7k
-9.2k
-15k
out of the 7 week sample (pointless going further back, regardless of technique, one should see the trend within trend)
it is clear to see intent from a contract point of view
does that mean an imminent (monday 10th) swing north is coming, no, absolutely not.....
although I was/am clearly expecting a time-window to close soon
this is like the example of the friday trade on the spx, except that I'm looking to get set for the much larger swing north
on a weekly to monthly basis, but, insistantly, regardless the anecdotal bias, levels be levels!!
do the numbers mean we are going to see a repeat of the lift of june/july 2014, no, not necessarily, not right away
and if not right away does that mean more downside and if so what kind of downside?
probably swift, very swift series of small jabs, quicker than the flush that recently brought gold to its current zone
levels are clear and as the commercials basically hold all the fire power at this point and are making the trend
I need to stick to the only two levels that mean anything right now while playing smaller internal jabs of 2-4 points
so, if we suddenly move out of the zone, adjusting the technique to allow for much wider price length
from bifocals to binoculars, fork to shovel, knife to chainsaw
but the chop is telling a story.....it's always telling a story.....gold is one of those beasts that doesnt "just" bring liquidity
it's a (contemporary pun alert) game of throttles!! #sorrynotsorry
.....liquidity flowing (buy-side or sell-side)is a set-up for the next move
we have two groups,
not inc the managers who are mandated to trend-follow
commercials are more inclined to actions of cognitive logic,
small speculators are more inclined to reactions emotive logic
we have two groups,
one more likely to buy (await) cheap supply and buy-to-close shorts
one more likely to sell-to-open lows in chop
we have two groups
one looking for much wider time scale, sit and wait once in position
one itchy to look good and be right,
we have two groups,
one that makes trend
one that gets trapped in positions that force them to exit at a loss
we have two groups on two different time scales and size of money
the point is if the commercials aren't getting enough supply, they can easily open fire and down we go,
the small speculators will then be adamantly tied to sell side (STO and STC)
currently daily basis chart displays a pennant hinting at more of the same direction but it's not that much different to the play
coming out of the June 2014 low anecdotally, plus, we have extended sells in CL, copper and platinum with a raging USD in the background
deflation is ripe and equities keep their extreme credit-debt-driven trends intact ....not our grandfathers markets, for sure
I have two levels on the downside that have standard measures, 1045 and 1054 (favouring 1045's)
these are basic ratios and gold is one instrument that lends itself to ratios
technically, if youre inclined to it, there's now a small penanty thing formed,
a lot of energy is now trapped inside this zone, if it can lift on its own then that bodes well for longs
but if we fail the recent low it's I expect the pace to be pretty quick, with or without news
given the extent of the commercials and speculators face-ripping moves should be considered normal
going back the opening paragraph, the levels are clearly defined at the moment, all other things aside,
if commercials are going to take price lower, then, lower we go and no price travels in one direction forever
executing cognitive logic less exhausting than emotive logic
"There's only one thing certain in life, Blondini, and that's doubt .. I think." GoodBye PorkPie
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i have stop/buys firing off as $DX takes its second steps south in its abc correction of its longer term bull phase
which creates an opportunity for longs on PM's in the larger bear cycle
this thread is not being interacted, which probably says a lot about this vehicle as a trading instrument
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Whilst I'm not actively trading PMs at present, I am enjoying this thread and am confident that others are also.
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cynic
a lot of whakamole on that 1.9% yuan event
provided an entry and boundaries to work with tho
forexample
a lot of whakamole on that 1.9% yuan event
provided an entry and boundaries to work with tho
forexample
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Chris ......there's that impulsive move
first impeded by the yuan reset....no bars held now...commercials at work, small speccie shorts getting crushed
first impeded by the yuan reset....no bars held now...commercials at work, small speccie shorts getting crushed
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this is an oversized call, maybe enough merit for a swing for a few weeks, maybe enough of a prompt for Asia to lift prices when London/NewYork are asleep?
8h8 hours ago
8h8 hours ago
John LaForge @Phomax said:
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quick review
while this is a day trading thread, i'm kinda walking the line on time frames so even tho there are "fix" times this isnt a session like equities and liquidity washing in an out in different sizes is a lot less like equities
the main task has been to refine a break out with a bias to the upside based on ratios that have been hit, the cycles at hand, the extreme sentiment displayed in the media, propensity of small specs to flip from one emotive logic to the next, the extreme low level of participation, the lowest level of short sales by commercial hedgers, orthodox patterning of the wedge, the 50%(ish) level of the Aug 1999 low to 2011 (144 month cycle) price high
50% is a generic number, not a Fibonacci number (there are no records from Pisano Fibonacci (son of Bonacci) that states he ever employed 50%) however, the mid level is a popular level for deep pockets to meet and peel a few bananas and make the dogs spin around in one spot make dizzy and walk sideways, ruh-roh!
the Yuan peg/fix/rate thing cause a headspin in many instruments and is going to have some sloshing around when north america opens but none of it is going to alter the basic course en mode now, at least, I dont think it should and now we've had that hiccup we appear to be on our way..it's kinda micro the market, nothing is bigger than the market itself.......
I dont think this is the trip where pricing is ideal to just fade pulls, I think this trip will see faders get faded, a messy affair and the need to keep a constant eye on context and relative size of moves, volatility increasing, keeping sizes small
.....when youre right you get some of the points when youre wrong you get all the points!
I am making the case that price must not go below 1097 for the upside to keep its journey intact
we have had 4 that say enough constructive pricing has taken shape and that (interestingly) the 4th lift was on a 1:1 ratio of the move that led to the 3rd lift (see earlier chart) so, constructively, even if not day-trade basis, I can make the case that it's now or never for longs to get and keep traction, albeit in a sloppy manner the further we get from the base zone
what is not happening is as valid as what is happening
ideally, the level for upside break-out is now the support level to test
3 mins
View attachment 63794
60 mins
View attachment 63795
while this is a day trading thread, i'm kinda walking the line on time frames so even tho there are "fix" times this isnt a session like equities and liquidity washing in an out in different sizes is a lot less like equities
the main task has been to refine a break out with a bias to the upside based on ratios that have been hit, the cycles at hand, the extreme sentiment displayed in the media, propensity of small specs to flip from one emotive logic to the next, the extreme low level of participation, the lowest level of short sales by commercial hedgers, orthodox patterning of the wedge, the 50%(ish) level of the Aug 1999 low to 2011 (144 month cycle) price high
50% is a generic number, not a Fibonacci number (there are no records from Pisano Fibonacci (son of Bonacci) that states he ever employed 50%) however, the mid level is a popular level for deep pockets to meet and peel a few bananas and make the dogs spin around in one spot make dizzy and walk sideways, ruh-roh!
the Yuan peg/fix/rate thing cause a headspin in many instruments and is going to have some sloshing around when north america opens but none of it is going to alter the basic course en mode now, at least, I dont think it should and now we've had that hiccup we appear to be on our way..it's kinda micro the market, nothing is bigger than the market itself.......
I dont think this is the trip where pricing is ideal to just fade pulls, I think this trip will see faders get faded, a messy affair and the need to keep a constant eye on context and relative size of moves, volatility increasing, keeping sizes small
.....when youre right you get some of the points when youre wrong you get all the points!
I am making the case that price must not go below 1097 for the upside to keep its journey intact
we have had 4 that say enough constructive pricing has taken shape and that (interestingly) the 4th lift was on a 1:1 ratio of the move that led to the 3rd lift (see earlier chart) so, constructively, even if not day-trade basis, I can make the case that it's now or never for longs to get and keep traction, albeit in a sloppy manner the further we get from the base zone
what is not happening is as valid as what is happening
ideally, the level for upside break-out is now the support level to test
3 mins
View attachment 63794
60 mins
View attachment 63795
Attachments
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more building blocks
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no doubt more humina humina to come ...but the market is bigger than mechanics and nothing in the mechanics has essentially changed, temporary shift in how values are achieved does not necessarily mean the trending sense of value has shifted
magnifying glass or binoculars ?
magnifying glass or binoculars ?
