API - Australian Pharmaceutical Industries

[craft]

So once it became apparent the guarantee was not going to be called, why the need to transfer the entire amount being guaranteed to provision impairment loss? It should just disappear off the balance sheet shouldn't it?

It’s been a while since I looked at API but from memory the deal is that guarantees to third parties are only issued with a corresponding agreement that any guarantee expenses are recoverable from the pharmacists.

So the other side of the Initial guarantee provision is to receivables to simultaneously recognise the pharmacist’s obligation.

Over time and to the extent that guarantee expenses look like not actually arising –neither does the pharmacists obligation. So the transaction becomes a decrease to the guarantee provision and increase in provision against receivables.

When the guarantee finally lapses – Just contra off the receivables against its associated provision which should already have a net zero balance. (from the above entry)

Happy Easter.

 

[McLovin]

It’s been a while since I looked at API but from memory the deal is that guarantees to third parties are only issued with a corresponding agreement that any guarantee expenses are recoverable from the pharmacists.

So the other side of the Initial guarantee provision is to receivables to simultaneously recognise the pharmacist’s obligation.

Over time and to the extent that guarantee expenses look like not actually arising –neither does the pharmacists obligation. So the transaction becomes a decrease to the guarantee provision and increase in provision against receivables.

When the guarantee finally lapses – Just contra off the receivables against its associated provision which should already have a net zero balance. (from the above entry)

Happy Easter.

Ahh. Now it makes sense. The recourse to the pharmacist was the missing piece.

Cheers, craft. And nice to see you back from the dead!

 

[Nortorious]

I bought into API this morning after running a relative strength scan to the market. API came up in the top eight and I took a look at the charts. Last week's action showed a continuation breakout. Given this, and the fact volume had greatly increased and the RSI is strong and the final point, it is above its 30 week weighted moving average, I went in.

Taking a look at the chart, there is some resistance in the background at around the 90s but that is going back almost four years so not sure if it is still relevant. Time will tell and we'll see where this thing goes...

 

[IrishDigger]

I bought in on Friday after some research.

 

[Nortorious]

Nice work Irishdigger. What price did you get it for?

I got in at 0.76 today, anything above 0.74 seemed like a good buy to me.

 

[IrishDigger]

0.73 with fingers crossed.

Cheers.

 

[Nortorious]

Nice work, anything above 0.72 was a good price but given I missed seeing this until this morning, anything above the closing price (within reason) would be a good entry point.

I'm happy with the 0.76 entry but yes, 0.73 was probably ideal entry point. Well done.

Let supply and demand do its thing now!

 

[UMike]

Interesting to read of all this interest in API.

They are going ex Div in a couple of weeks.

I had a massive holding, buying as they went down in price in 2010.
While I have been selling down as they recovered in 2013 I was considering letting go of another parcel after the Dividend.

Around the 90s..... I'll definately be part of the resistance.

@90c (if it gets there) the Dividend rate would be under 5% (excl franking)
Long way to go imo.

 

[Nortorious]

Hey UMike,

I wasn't even aware of the dividend coming up!!! Haha

Bit of a bonus to cash that in addition to some capital gains if that's how it pans out.

Chart still looks good to me, hopefully it will test the new high of 0.82 this week and head up to the 90s. We'll see what happens and hopefully we can all achieve our objectives.

Out of interest, what's your average price?

I'm not a supporter of the averaging down strategy as it is counter to my strategy but am aware of the rationale many have to do so. It was one of my first questions on here and I almost got ran out of town haha

Many years ago now but always interested in other traders experiences and their path.

 

[Nortorious]

Nice close at 0.83 today so hitting those new recent highs I was looking for.

Still aiming for that mid 90s area and looking at what happens once it gets there to see where the SL can be adjusted to etc.

Do you know when the ex-div date is?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Bought inside the pennant formation and sold wayyy too soon at 75 - 75.5 cents. Reasoning was my view of market uncertainty with Q.E. ending. Also got my calculations wrong on the breakout target. Price now at 83 cents. Surely gonna pop soon.

 

[Nortorious]

Bought inside the pennant formation and sold wayyy too soon at 75 - 75.5 cents. Reasoning was my view of market uncertainty with Q.E. ending. Also got my calculations wrong on the breakout target. Price now at 83 cents. Surely gonna pop soon.

View attachment 60167

View attachment 60168

It's always hard to pick the right time to exit and I'm usually not leaving with the highest profit % but I try and let the profit run as far as it can before bailing once my stop gets hit or evidence shows up on the chart that makes me want out...

Still from a % point of view, you still managed a nice little trade.

Will be interesting to see where it ends up, I'm hoping higher obviously!!

How do you calculate your breakout target?

 

[Wysiwyg]

How do you calculate your breakout target?

I used Bulkowski chart pattern site measure rule. Start point of pole = A to end point of pole/start of pennant = B. The difference between A & B is 15 cents. Multiply 15 cents by the success rate of 60% for up breaks = 9 cents. Add 9 cents to the low of the pennant end point of 67 cents = 76 cents.

 

[Nortorious]

I used Bulkowski chart pattern site measure rule. Start point of pole = A to end point of pole/start of pennant = B. The difference between A & B is 15 cents. Multiply 15 cents by the success rate of 60% for up breaks = 9 cents. Add 9 cents to the low of the pennant end point of 67 cents = 76 cents.

Haven't heard of that method so will have to read up about it (always open to learning about other approaches).

I don't have a method for projecting price other than looking at the background and deciding where the likely sellers are going to be waiting... In instances without and chart history with evidence of overhead supply, it's merely a game of riding the trend until it starts to curve.

No science to my method at the moment but have read about projecting use point and figure charts etc through the Wyckoff approach but didn't make much sense to me and I couldn't really understand the rationale behind it.

 

[Wysiwyg]

No science to my method at the moment but have read about projecting use point and figure charts etc through the Wyckoff approach but didn't make much sense to me and I couldn't really understand the rationale behind it.

Yeah theses things can run along way but I don't wait for confirmation. By then the goose is already cooked. I am also particularly unsure in this present market. There are a number of reasons for the market to tank and I really don't wanna be overly exposed. But, as I am gladly reminded, the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Do you know when the ex-div date is?

Tuesday 12th November so Monday is the last trading day to buy into the 2 cent div.

 

[Nortorious]

Well a small dividend will be a bonus. My price target is 0.93-0.94 based on the chart below. If it can push through 0.94 it will be happy days but we'll wait and see what happens...

 

[Nortorious]

Well managed to be still in the position on the ex-dividend date so will gain a nice little 2c bonus payment for holding at the right time. Price closed out the week at 0.84 which was a good result. It did hit an intra-week high of 0.872 and I would expect this to be achieved again and exceeded in the coming week/s.

Based on the chart below, I'll still be looking at the activity at 0.93 to 0.94 price area to see if there is still some fuel in the tank to push it higher.

Should it get there, taking into account the dividend's 2c value, the trade would be shaping up as a 26% profit result. Not too shabby. If it can get past 0.94, next stop could possibly be $1.34.

 

[Nortorious]

Well UMike, I hope you are getting that finger ready for the sell button my friend. A nice intraday high today of $0.89 and a new high close at $0.875. Volume activity was pretty good and RSI still looking good.

Still expecting this to nudge into the 90s and we'll see what happens at the 94s.... I actually think this might cruise past the 94s after an initial delay to test supply and then will shoot north to $1.34+

The trade for me is currently representing 17% profit (taking into account the dividend that will be paid). Happy with that result thus far given the short amount of time the stock has been held.

Onwards and upwards lil fella!

 

[Nortorious]

Well UMike, I hope you are getting that finger ready for the sell button my friend. A nice intraday high today of $0.89 and a new high close at $0.875. Volume activity was pretty good and RSI still looking good.

Still expecting this to nudge into the 90s and we'll see what happens at the 94s.... I actually think this might cruise past the 94s after an initial delay to test supply and then will shoot north to $1.34+

The trade for me is currently representing 17% profit (taking into account the dividend that will be paid). Happy with that result thus far given the short amount of time the stock has been held.

Onwards and upwards lil fella!

Hit 96c intraday today before falling away. Weekly volume already beating last week with one session to go to close out the week. Despite not holding above 94c today, I'd suspect it will have another run at it and shoot through the $1 mark.