NBN Rollout Scrapped

[NBNMyths]

Myths,

From where we stand now, what's your judgement on Labor's performance in this area ?

I'd think I'd give them a B.

Going back to where this all began in 2007....

They went in with a policy of FTTN. But that was scuttled by Telstra's left-over management, leaving them few options to go forward with. They could go with FTTP, or stick to FTTN at what probably would have been around the same cost ($35bn), based on the $20bn figure to buy the copper (quoted in the 4 corners report).

So FTTP it was, along with wireless and satellite.

On the implementation of the NBN....


The choice of technologies:

Fibre is still the undisputed king of capability for urban/suburban areas, and is the preferred choice worldwide for greenfields, and in many countries for brownfields too (with FTTN being chosen in other countries by incumbent carriers for cost reasons). Let's not forget that NBN Co is not an incumbent carrier, and does not own a copper network with which to build FTTN. I'm pretty sure that there's nowhere in the World where a non-incumbant is rolling out FTTN. It remains to be seen how much (an admittedly friendlier) Telstra will charge NBN Co for access to their copper network. I would have liked Labor/NBN Co to be more open to FTTB for frustrated MDUs. Despite the wireless fanbois vocal opposition to fibre, there's still no country on the planet proposing to deploy wireless in lieu of fixed in metro areas.

LTE has won the global 'war' with WiMax (The coalition's previous selection) for wireless broadband deployments in semi-rural areas. Their choice of Ericsson LTE has been successful, with download speeds now double those promised in 2009, and uploads 5x higher than promised.

The decision to order new high capacity Ka-band satellites has been proven wise, with the Coalition's policy of using space on existing sats already shown to be near impossible, with the interim sat service almost full after just two years of operation.​

On the build:

It's disappointing that the fibre rollout is behind schedule. The Telstra deal was responsible for a decent chunk of the delay, but once that was done and delays became apparent, I would have liked to see NBN Co take steps to speed up the rollout, such as implementing their own workforce and/or bringing in additional construction contractors. On the upside, it appears that the capital cost of the rollout is on-budget, and the network performance/reliability is excellent. Takeup is well ahead of forecast, especially top-end speeds, leading to higher than forecast ARPU.

The transit network is ahead of schedule and on budget.

As far as I know, the wireless portion is going fine, with the exception of the odd council failing to approve wireless towers, which is beyond the control of NBN Co or any carrier. As mentioned, the delivered speeds are above those promised.

The satellite portion is going well. The interim service has proven slightly too popular, with capacity set to be reached a year ahead of schedule. The new sats are ordered and on-schedule. The launch program is ordered and the orbit slot application is proceeding on schedule with the ITU. The ground stations are progressing on schedule. The sats will also offer speeds above those initially promised. If Turnbull had his way, NBN Co would not have ordered the launches until the slots were finalised, despite it being standard international practise. This would have delayed the launches by ~2 years, leading to people being stuck on the (full) interim sat for 2 more years, and others missing out all-together for 2 years.​

 

[drsmith]

I'd think I'd give them a B.

The strategic review to be released this week I suspect won't be quiet so kind.

 

[NBNMyths]

The strategic review to be released this week I suspect won't be quite so kind.

Probably not, but considering it's being prepared by Turnbull's political appointees with his policy in mind, such an outcome it won't come as any surprise, will it?

Interesting to read Delimiter's article from later today, which mirrors many of my own comments about the successes of the NBN:
http://delimiter.com.au/2013/12/09/captain-titanic-turnbull-mocks-quigleys-nbn-tenure/

Malcolm Turnbull is probably my favourite Coalition MP, but his attitude towards Mr Quigley over the last few years has sullied my opinion of him, and apparently those of many in the Australian tech sector. I'll paste Delim's summary, which is well worth reading, and which I agree with wholeheartedly:

The difference between Mike Quigley and Malcolm Turnbull could not have been be more starkly displayed last week.

The politely spoken and dignified Quigley laid out, in extreme technical detail, what he thought NBN Co had accomplished over his time leading the company. He did so to a technical audience, who he no doubt hoped to pass on some lessons to. He acknowledged NBN Co’s mistakes. And he exhorted NBN Co’s team to support the Coalition’s Fibre to the Node-based policy.

In response, Minister Turnbull mocked Quigley in Federal Parliament, using the highest-profile venue available to him, comparing the respected executive to the Captain of the Titanic and accusing him of naivity when it came to the NBN project. Turnbull further did not acknowledge any of Quigley’s accomplishments in virtually single-handedly setting up the NBN Co that exists today. You know. The NBN Co which will be delivering Turnbull’s NBN policy.

None of this is a surprise. Turnbull’s behaviour towards Quigley over the past three years has been nothing short of appalling. He has slandered the executive at every opportunity, tried to embarrass and discredit him, put him under extreme amounts of pressure, and even threatened to have him removed, should he not resign of his own accord under a Coalition Government. It’s probably a good thing Quigley retired when he did.

In response, Quigley has gotten on with the job and offered Turnbull nothing but politeness. Never once, that I’ve seen, has he grown angry towards the Member for Wentworth or lost his temper. Instead, he offered Turnbull private briefings on the NBN (which Turnbull never took up) and even pushed NBN Co’s staff to support Turnbull’s rival policy in Government.

Well, the proof is in the pudding. Let’s see who can deploy the NBN better. Quigley had four years to set up the project. He failed on some fronts but succeeded on many others. In the process, he kept his dignity intact and earned the undying respect of most of Australia’s technology community. Whether you agree that it’s justified or not, Quigley’s name is always spoken in my hearing by technical people with respect. Almost universally, those same people speak Turnbull’s name with frustration and anger … sometimes contempt.

Let’s see whether Turnbull can do better than Quigley over the next four years and earn that respect back. He better get hopping. As NBN Co’s own internal evaluation of the Coalition’s NBN policy has shown, the Minister has a job of work ahead of him. And there will be many of us who will be writing mini-report cards for the Duke of Double Bay along the way. Karma’s a bitch; I hope Turnbull expects much of the same vitriol coming his way that he dealt out to Quigley, if he fails to live up to his NBN promises in turn.

 

[drsmith]

Probably not, but considering it's being prepared by Turnbull's political appointees with his policy in mind, such an outcome it won't come as any surprise, will it?

I thought you might say that and to some extent that's likely to be true. It won't necessarily be without value though in its judgement on the state of the current rollout.

Let's also not forget though that the rollout targets in NBN Co's strategic plans under Labor were ultimately clearly much more political than they were practical.

 

[sydboy007]

Let's also not forget though that the rollout targets in NBN Co's strategic plans under Labor were ultimately clearly much more political than they were practical.

But Malcolm's 2016 and 2019 targets were based purely on technical analysis

 

[drsmith]

But Malcolm's 2016 and 2019 targets were based purely on technical analysis

That's Malcolm's first crack.

How many did Labor and NBN Co have while Labor was in office, only to ultimately have the last one (draft 2013 corporate plan) sat upon till after the election and then only released somewhat unofficially ?

As a side note to the above, it was amusing to watch Stephen Conroy in a Senate hearing today try and fail to nail NBN Co's current executives on that draft 2013 corporate plan that itself wasn't "officially" made public.

Tomorrow is Strategic Review day.

 

[sydboy007]

That's Malcolm's first crack.

How many did Labor and NBN Co have while Labor was in office, only to ultimately have the last one (draft 2013 corporate plan) sat upon till after the election and then only released somewhat unofficially ?

As a side note to the above, it was amusing to watch Stephen Conroy in a Senate hearing today try and fail to nail NBN Co's current executives on that draft 2013 corporate plan that itself wasn't "officially" made public.

Tomorrow is Strategic Review day.

Well, the review certainly did no favours to either party.

I'm waiting for how the no excuses Govt is going to spin breaking their non core promise of the 2016 upgrade to 25Mbs.

I'm expecting them to use many excuses about issues that were highlighted to them months before the election.

 

[Bill M]

Here I am on the Central Coast unable to get broadband.... oh ok except for wireless. So Aldi comes along and makes a deal with Telstra to use their 3G network. It's called ALDImobile, provided by MEDIONmobile.

Wow what a great deal for ALDI customers. Only one problem, people are jumping on big time and the service for current Telstra customers is declining. Why? Because of overload from the ALDI customers, I think.

So here it is, Central Coast, big population, no NBN where I am, and competing for quick broadband with everyone else (including those pesky ALDI customers).

I don't give a rats ar$e who's in charge or who stuffed up what. We were on the path of high speed broadband and now my service is declining.

I don't expect any of the current clowns to fix this, sorry. The NBN was a good idea, the current government seems intent on destroying this, another I can't believe it.:dunno:

Oh, forgot to mention, 3 reboots today, must be all that congestion. Arrhh yes an Australia with real internet is what I dream for.

 

[sydboy007]

I don't give a rats ar$e who's in charge or who stuffed up what. We were on the path of high speed broadband and now my service is declining.

I don't expect any of the current clowns to fix this, sorry. The NBN was a good idea, the current government seems intent on destroying this, another I can't believe it.:dunno:

Oh, forgot to mention, 3 reboots today, must be all that congestion. Arrhh yes an Australia with real internet is what I dream for.

I just can't believe after all the problems to be overcome for an FTTN, and most are reasonably sorted now, the current Govt wants to totally change the architecture of the network, and required skills to roll it out, and spend 2 or 3 years overcoming a host of costly new issues.

It's just amazing that in September members of the current Govt saw nothing that would impede an FTTN network from providing 25Mbs in 2016. Roughly 3 months later and they're backtracking on a what a lot of voters would consider a core election promise. If that's supposed to be rock solid commitment in Government, i hate to see what a wobbly will be like.

 

[overhang]

Quite an interesting day, the report read quite as expected as Turnbull stacked the deck to ensure Ziggy would find FTTN suitable. What a mess this looks to be as we are now building a national infrastructure network with a mixture of technology and speeds. I can't believe that this is a selling point "The NBN would not need to upgraded sooner than five years of construction of the first access technology," Ziggy, oh great so we wont need to upgrade quite as soon as many update their cars.

Tonight the report Turnbull was given by NBN Strategic Review in his first few weeks of government was leaked. This is the same review that was denied a FOI request.
Key points



1. Building the NBN in two stages to achieve minimum speeds of 25mbps by 2016 and 50mbps by 2019 is the wrong approach and "not recommended". It says that taking this approach will cost more and take longer.

2. Achieving the Coalition's election commitment that all Australians will have access to minimum speeds of 25mbps by 2016 is "unlikely".

3. A fibre-to-the-node network will result in lower revenues of up to 30 percent and this will impact on the ability of NBN Co to raise debt.

4. The cost of fixing Telstra's old copper network is unknown to NBN Co, the Government and perhaps even Telstra.

5. The cost of operating and maintaining the copper network is estimated to between $600 million and $900 million per year.

6. A managed lease arrangement with Telstra for access to the copper could create structural separation issues.

7. Fibre-to-the-premise should continue to rollout at current volumes until the second rate fibre-to-the-node can be rolled out at full capacity.

8. A minimum speed of 50 megabits per second can't be guaranteed using copper.

9. A fibre-to-the-node network will need to be upgraded in the future (by deploying fibre closer to the end user premises) to meet demand for higher speeds. This will drive higher capital expenditure costs in the future.

10. NBN Co will not be able to offer the same products on a fibre-to-the-node network that they were offering on the fibre-to-the-premises network. Lower upload speeds and lack of guaranteed bandwidth will impact business, healthcare and education. Videoconferencing and cloud services will be reduced.

11. There may be community concerns over placement of the nodes. The cabinets are larger than any equipment required for a fibre-to-the-premises rollout and they need to be connected to a power supply. Community concern over the placement of these nodes may impact council approvals and impact the timeframe of a fibre-to-the-node rollout.

12. Some medium-sized businesses and all large enterprises will need to buy their own fibre internet connections as the fibre-to-the-node network will be unable to support many business-class features offered under a fibre-to-the-premise model.

 

[overhang]

I've said this before on here but at this point I'd rather us either build FTTP now or not build anything at all and wait until its obvious that we require the expensive upgrade, it just seems such a waste of money to only do half the job when you're spending that sort of outlay anyway (41 billion). What we know is that at some point in time it will need to be upgraded and at that time it will cost a lot more than 30 billion to do assuming we upgrade to FTTP. So either spend the 71 billion now or not at all.

 

[sptrawler]

Here I am on the Central Coast unable to get broadband.... oh ok except for wireless. So Aldi comes along and makes a deal with Telstra to use their 3G network. It's called ALDImobile, provided by MEDIONmobile.

Wow what a great deal for ALDI customers. Only one problem, people are jumping on big time and the service for current Telstra customers is declining. Why? Because of overload from the ALDI customers, I think.

So here it is, Central Coast, big population, no NBN where I am, and competing for quick broadband with everyone else (including those pesky ALDI customers).

I don't give a rats ar$e who's in charge or who stuffed up what. We were on the path of high speed broadband and now my service is declining.

I don't expect any of the current clowns to fix this, sorry. The NBN was a good idea, the current government seems intent on destroying this, another I can't believe it.:dunno:

Oh, forgot to mention, 3 reboots today, must be all that congestion. Arrhh yes an Australia with real internet is what I dream for.

Yeh, Bill M, you want the taxpayer to pay for the NBN, so you have better internet.
Holden workers want the taxpayer to susidies G.M, so they keep their jobs.
Ford workers want the tax payer to subsidies Ford.
Steel and Iron furnace workers want taxpayers to subsidies their product to save jobs.
Farmers want subsidies to stay in business.
Everyone wants the National Dissability scheme.
Everyone wants Gonski spending increases.
Everyone wants the unemployment benefit lifted.
Everyone wants the pension lifted.
Wow 3 reboots today. I bet when you were a young bloke, most people would have thought you had changed your shoes three times.lol
How did you manage back then.

 

[sptrawler]

I've said this before on here but at this point I'd rather us either build FTTP now or not build anything at all and wait until its obvious that we require the expensive upgrade, it just seems such a waste of money to only do half the job when you're spending that sort of outlay anyway (41 billion). What we know is that at some point in time it will need to be upgraded and at that time it will cost a lot more than 30 billion to do assuming we upgrade to FTTP. So either spend the 71 billion now or not at all.

I would rather see the government spend the money on port and rail infrastructure, to offload the resources more efficiently.
Then use the money generated to put in social infrastructure, like fibre to the house.
Better to use taxpayers money, to install infrastructure that generates external income. Not just install infrastructure that becomes another household cost, with minimal benefit to the net wealth.

 

[sydboy007]

I would rather see the government spend the money on port and rail infrastructure, to offload the resources more efficiently.
Then use the money generated to put in social infrastructure, like fibre to the house.
Better to use taxpayers money, to install infrastructure that generates external income. Not just install infrastructure that becomes another household cost, with minimal benefit to the net wealth.

Exporting our "knowledge" may be the best way to source foreign revenue to pay for the lifestyle we feel entitled to. fast and reliable broadband certainly makes that easier than what we currently have.

Businesses will certainly be stuck paying a lot more for high speed business grade broadband.

No FTTN in HFC areas, but no mention of the people in MDUs who can't access it. They'll just have to hope the likes of TPG / IINet decide to do FTTB into the apartment block, or just accept being stuck on current ADSL technologies for at least another decade.

Denmark and Norway are showing what's possible via broadband and telemedicine to cut health care costs, while improving health outcomes, especially in their rural areas that have high levels of older people. Even the stacked report clearly shows most telemedicine options will not be feasible with FTTN.

 

[sptrawler]

Exporting our "knowledge" may be the best way to source foreign revenue to pay for the lifestyle we feel entitled to. fast and reliable broadband certainly makes that easier than what we currently have.

Businesses will certainly be stuck paying a lot more for high speed business grade broadband.

No FTTN in HFC areas, but no mention of the people in MDUs who can't access it. They'll just have to hope the likes of TPG / IINet decide to do FTTB into the apartment block, or just accept being stuck on current ADSL technologies for at least another decade.

Denmark and Norway are showing what's possible via broadband and telemedicine to cut health care costs, while improving health outcomes, especially in their rural areas that have high levels of older people. Even the stacked report clearly shows most telemedicine options will not be feasible with FTTN.

Like I've said endlesly, the idea is great, but we are facing globalisation, were we compete to maintain our lifestyle. I'm not happy about it but it is a fact of life.
Currently our advantage is resources, not IT, if we pour money into IT at the expense of resources, we are missing an opportunity.
I know resources are finite, but at this stage of our economic development, they are producing the money.
If taxes are used to maximise this income, it can then be used to develop sustainable industries, including IT.
To me, we are buying all the furniture before we have the house, actually before we have a job.:1zhelp:
We are on the same song sheet, just a case of timing, who knows who has it right.

 

[NBNMyths]

"In the government's first major broken promise on the NBN since the election, NBN Co has said that it will be unable to deliver 25Mbps to all Australians by the end of 2016, instead stating that approximately 43 percent of premises will have access to 25Mbps download speeds at the end of 2016, and 91 percent of premises will have access to 50Mbps by the end of 2019"

http://www.zdnet.com/turnbull-breaks-nbn-promise-less-than-half-to-get-25mbps-in-2016-7000024202/

I'm not one to say I told you so. But, well, I told you so:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...21778&page=101&p=765320&viewfull=1#post765320

....and it's actually slightly worse than it looks, because it's 43% of premises within the fixed line footprint, not 43% of all premises.



I'm just reading through the review at present. It seems rather vague and optimistic, and there is some very suspicious redacting.

For example, it states that there has not been any testing of vectored VDSL in Australia, and that the 50Mbps figure is just an estimate based on the 25% thicker copper used in the UK.

It also says that they have no data on how much copper remediation will be required, as Telstra have not provided them with any information for the review. They have redacted the number of lines they guestimate will have to be remediated in the first year, and in subsequent years (why?). They have also redacted the estimated cost of that remediation, although is is in the $billions.

There's no mention of budgeting for any cost to access the copper network in order to build FTTN, or any budgeted cost for accessing the HFC networks....Although perhaps they have, but redacted that section.

 

[overhang]

Page 100 of the review is really the icing on the cake. It states that after 30 years to upgrade to FTTP from FTTN will save 4 billion than building FTTP now. Now i imagine this figure will be taken from the completion of FTTN which is 2021 and that it would be 2051 until we begin the upgrade, any sooner would work the other way because they rely on the revenue from FTTN to hedge the difference. So lets just say some how the network lasts out till then, all this to save just 4 billion.... one hell of a gamble to assume the network will last till 2051 before an upgrade.

The review s here for anyone interested
http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco/documents/NBN-Co-Strategic-Review-Report.pdf

 

[drsmith]

The review s here for anyone interested
http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco/documents/NBN-Co-Strategic-Review-Report.pdf

Definitely lots of reading in there for the interested.

Having a quick look at your point above, I suspect CY30 in that table on page 100 is a reference to calendar year 2030, not 30 years from now or from some future date.

Something that someone's bound to latch on at some going is the heavy reliance on the HFC network under scenario 6, both at the end of 2016 and 2020 (Exhibit 4.2 on page 98). Of particular interest is the total FTTN (FTTN/FTTdip/B) coverage by the end of 2016. At that point, it's only 5% of the overall network.

 

[sptrawler]

"In the government's first major broken promise on the NBN since the election, NBN Co has said that it will be unable to deliver 25Mbps to all Australians by the end of 2016, instead stating that approximately 43 percent of premises will have access to 25Mbps download speeds at the end of 2016, and 91 percent of premises will have access to 50Mbps by the end of 2019"

http://www.zdnet.com/turnbull-breaks-nbn-promise-less-than-half-to-get-25mbps-in-2016-7000024202/

I'm not one to say I told you so. But, well, I told you so:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...21778&page=101&p=765320&viewfull=1#post765320

....and it's actually slightly worse than it looks, because it's 43% of premises within the fixed line footprint, not 43% of all premises.



I'm just reading through the review at present. It seems rather vague and optimistic, and there is some very suspicious redacting.

For example, it states that there has not been any testing of vectored VDSL in Australia, and that the 50Mbps figure is just an estimate based on the 25% thicker copper used in the UK.

It also says that they have no data on how much copper remediation will be required, as Telstra have not provided them with any information for the review. They have redacted the number of lines they guestimate will have to be remediated in the first year, and in subsequent years (why?). They have also redacted the estimated cost of that remediation, although is is in the $billions.

There's no mention of budgeting for any cost to access the copper network in order to build FTTN, or any budgeted cost for accessing the HFC networks....Although perhaps they have, but redacted that section.

One would think that if FTTP is shown to be a more appropriate installation to adopt the government would pursue it.
For god sake it couldn't cause any more flack than they are already copping, just read any Fairfax paper, apparently they are backflipping on everything anyway.
It all appears like a child like fascination with another lost Labor government and their dream.
Everything I've read just makes reference to the FTTN anyone got any links to how the FTTP was working out.
Meanwhile they are trucking B quads on public roads 300klms to port facilities in WA.
Then when they get there, 30 ships are at anchor offshore.
At the same time my holiday house and the two next door have NBN fibre, but no one has connected.lol
I'll let you know when one of the three gets connected, it should be interesting.
Like that's money well spent.
Keep spending money to fix up the roads that the trucks destroy and throw money at fibre to the home where people don't use it.lol

 

[Bill M]

Yeh, Bill M, you want the taxpayer to pay for the NBN, so you have better internet.

Yes I and millions of others do as well. And as it is a key infrastructure project I do expect taxpayers to pay for it. I am quite happy to pay my share in Monthly broadband bills if I could get it.