NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

NBN strategic review to be released by year end.

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/coalition_to_release_nbn_review_Ikw4y5dtQ4olVOhwfE06SN

 

[drsmith]

Malcolm Turnbull has advised in Parliament today that the strategic review will be released next week. He also advised that the fibre rollout by June 30 2014 will be approximately 20% of that forecast in the 2010 corporate plan.

The 2010 Corporate plan forecast a total 2,711,000 premises passed with fibre by the above date.

 

[So_Cynical]

More industry opinion that the combination of Telstra, Nodes, Copper, Fibre and the NBN = a dogs breakfast.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/12/03/junior_telcos_tie_knot_in_nbn_co_copper_plan/

 

[sptrawler]

More evidence that most don't give a rats ar$e about it.

http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/nbn-connections-available-but-take-up-slow-20131205-hv4kg.html

 

[sydboy007]

More evidence that most don't give a rats ar$e about it.

http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/nbn-connections-available-but-take-up-slow-20131205-hv4kg.html

Considering a lot of internet customers are on 2 year contracts you might have to wait 12 months from active promotion of NBN in a particular area before you start to see people being able to sign up for an NBN plan.

The take up rates in the early areas seem to have been quite high. My parents were in the first release of Kiama Downs / Minnamurra and the take up rate is well over 50% now. Wilunga has a similar profile. The avg is around a third of premises in each live NBN that's been active for at least 12 months. Seems a reasonable rate of consciously choosing to get onto the NBN.

 

[NBNMyths]

More evidence that most don't give a rats ar$e about it.

http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/nbn-connections-available-but-take-up-slow-20131205-hv4kg.html

Evidence of what?

 

[sptrawler]

Considering a lot of internet customers are on 2 year contracts you might have to wait 12 months from active promotion of NBN in a particular area before you start to see people being able to sign up for an NBN plan.

The take up rates in the early areas seem to have been quite high. My parents were in the first release of Kiama Downs / Minnamurra and the take up rate is well over 50% now. Wilunga has a similar profile. The avg is around a third of premises in each live NBN that's been active for at least 12 months. Seems a reasonable rate of consciously choosing to get onto the NBN.

Even at a 50% uptake it shows that the general public aren't breaking their necks to get it on.
You can talk it up as much as you like, however most will only put it on if it is cost neutral and or there is no alternative, i.e greenfield sites.
If the general population were desperate to get the NBN, they would pay for the connection. But as can be seen by the takeup, the majority aren't putting it on even when it is a free connection.
Meanwhile we scratch around to find money for health, education and infrastructure.

 

[overhang]

Even at a 50% uptake it shows that the general public aren't breaking their necks to get it on.
You can talk it up as much as you like, however most will only put it on if it is cost neutral and or there is no alternative, i.e greenfield sites.
If the general population were desperate to get the NBN, they would pay for the connection. But as can be seen by the takeup, the majority aren't putting it on even when it is a free connection.
Meanwhile we scratch around to find money for health, education and infrastructure.

Well we're not building the NBN for today we are building it for the 10+ years when it will be required. And the 50% figure seems quite a subjective matter of judgement, bit of a glass half full half empty. If you consider the amount of people that would be under existing contracts then it seems a respectable figure.

 

[NBNMyths]

Even at a 50% uptake it shows that the general public aren't breaking their necks to get it on.
You can talk it up as much as you like, however most will only put it on if it is cost neutral and or there is no alternative, i.e greenfield sites.
If the general population were desperate to get the NBN, they would pay for the connection. But as can be seen by the takeup, the majority aren't putting it on even when it is a free connection.
Meanwhile we scratch around to find money for health, education and infrastructure.

The takeup of the NBN is higher than any similar project worldwide, including the takeup of the internet (dialup), ADSL and cable broadband. It's faster than the take-up of iPods, smart phones, 3G broadband, 4G broadband.

Like absolutely every technology, the takeup of the NBN follows the standard bell curve, and it's currently well ahead of that curve.

So I'm not sure how you think that story is evidence of any sort of NBN failure. There is nothing in the history of industry that has enjoyed instant take-up, from the automobile to the computer. There is always a curve.

I'm curious..... If you'd been the boss of Telstra spending a few billion rolling out ADSL nationwide in the early 2000's, would you have continued the rollout upon being told that less than 2% of eligible customers had taken up a service after 12 months? Because that's what the takeup was back then. Makes the NBN look rather spectacular by comparison. Yet where would we be today if the Telstra people hadn't understood the adoption curve?

The test of the NBN will be the takeup in ~10 years. And just like the internet, broadband and smart phones, I suspect that you'll be wondering in 10 years time how you ever did without 50Mbps+ broadband speeds.

 

[sptrawler]

The takeup of the NBN is higher than any similar project worldwide, including the takeup of the internet (dialup), ADSL and cable broadband. It's faster than the take-up of iPods, smart phones, 3G broadband, 4G broadband.

Like absolutely every technology, the takeup of the NBN follows the standard bell curve, and it's currently well ahead of that curve.

So I'm not sure how you think that story is evidence of any sort of NBN failure. There is nothing in the history of industry that has enjoyed instant take-up, from the automobile to the computer. There is always a curve.

I'm curious..... If you'd been the boss of Telstra spending a few billion rolling out ADSL nationwide in the early 2000's, would you have continued the rollout upon being told that less than 2% of eligible customers had taken up a service after 12 months? Because that's what the takeup was back then. Makes the NBN look rather spectacular by comparison. Yet where would we be today if the Telstra people hadn't understood the adoption curve?

The test of the NBN will be the takeup in ~10 years. And just like the internet, broadband and smart phones, I suspect that you'll be wondering in 10 years time how you ever did without 50Mbps+ broadband speeds.

As I've said endlessly, there is nothing wrong with the ideology of the NBN, however in my humble opinion there are more pressing infrastructure projects that require the money.
Obviously you feel the introduction of ultra high speed internet to the home, is in some way going to transition our economy to a new era.
I feel we are going to be caught between a rock and a hard place, as resource based construction slows and manufacturing declines, our lifestyle is going to be difficult to fund.
You throw up the examples of the ipad, smart phone 3g 4g, how wonderfull, yet it is just a consumable that requires the user to pay for usage. It doesn't add anything to the economy, it produces nothing, just uses up a section of the consumer pie.
Unless we start and think about making money with what we have to sell, we are going to find ourselves a third world economy with a great internet system.
Somewhat like the Phillipines, one of our members says they have a great internet system. I would rather have our living standard , than their internet speed.
I also don't see their living standard improving, despite having a high speed internet in place.
By the way, you would probably find our take up of fast food has been faster than anywhere else in the world also.lol

 

[So_Cynical]

Speedtest.net results show Australia in 48th and 96th spot for download and upload speed, respectively

Internet metrics company, Ookla, has ranked Australia 48th for download speed and 96th for upload speed in its most recent Net Index which covers tests recorded on Speedtest.net from June 3, 2011, to December 2, 2013.

Based on the tests, the average Australian download speed is 14.36 megabits per second (Mbps), equivalent to 1.795 megabytes per second (MBps). This places Australia on par with Slovenia and the Isle of Man.

http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/533403/ookla_net_index_delivers_verdict_australian_internet_speed/

Pathetic.

 

[drsmith]

Pathetic.

That's what you get from 6 years of Labor in office.

 

[So_Cynical]

That's what you get from 6 years of Labor in office.

Seriously a decade of Howard's nothingness...and you know it, like everyone knows it...a decade of dithering followed by 6 years of Labor catchup that led to an over reach.

 

[drsmith]

Seriously a decade of Howard's nothingness...and you know it, like everyone knows it...a decade of dithering followed by 6 years of Labor catchup that led to an over reach.

As much as you would like to, you can't blame the Howard government for the problems Labor had in office. They covered the full spectrum, from warped ideology, broad scale policy failure and of course the internal problems within the party itself that led to two leadership changes while on office.

 

[IFocus]

Seriously a decade of Howard's nothingness...and you know it, like everyone knows it...a decade of dithering followed by 6 years of Labor catchup that led to an over reach.

I think with a bit of effort the Coalition should get us down to carrier pigeons, sure to attract business capital with those.

 

[drsmith]

Rollout update for the week to December 1,

A total of 8270 additional lots/premises were passed/covered by the network during the week, of which 5278 were in Brownfield and 860 were in Greenfield areas. Fixed wireless coverage increased by 2132 premises. During the week an additional 2887 premises had services activated on the network, including 2147 on fixed line services and 740 using satellite and fixed wireless technologies.

In the past 5 weeks, a total of 25,855 brownfield premises were passed (ave 5,171/week). The past two weeks have each been steady at around 5,250 per week.

Since June 30 2013 (22 weeks), a total of 91,738 brownfield premises were passed (ave 4,170/week).

The rollout has passed approximately 255,253 brownfield premises. At 5,171 brownfields per week from now, it will pass approximately 410,000 by June 30 2014.

Greenfields passed is 27,516 since June 30 for an average of 1,251 per week. Total greenfields is now 71,544 and the total fibre passed footprint is now 326,797. At 6,500 per week, the fibre passed footprint will reach approximately 522,000 by June 30 2014.

http://www.nbnco.com.au/about-us/weekly-progress-report.html

http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco/documents/nbnco-rollout-metrics-01122013.pdf

 

[drsmith]

Malcolm Turnbull has advised in Parliament today that the strategic review will be released next week. He also advised that the fibre rollout by June 30 2014 will be approximately 20% of that forecast in the 2010 corporate plan.

The 2010 Corporate plan forecast a total 2,711,000 premises passed with fibre by the above date.

For comparison with above figures, that 20% would represent 542,200 premises.

In its FTTN plan earlier this year, the Coalition forecast 565,000 brownfields and 134,000 greenfields passed by June 30 2014 so the outcome looks like being even worse than that forecast.

 

[sptrawler]

For comparison with above figures, that 20% would represent 542,200 premises.

In its FTTN plan earlier this year, the Coalition forecast 565,000 brownfields and 134,000 greenfields passed by June 30 2014 so the outcome looks like being even worse than that forecast.

My property and the two next door still aren't connected. Actually the person next door asked "what is the new box on my house" lol
I said "it's the nbn"
She said "I don't want gas, it's dangerous".lol
Really this is as GG would say, a thought bubble.
Not everyone, is as enarmoured with the internet as some would have us believe. At this point in time.

 

[NBNMyths]

As much as you would like to, you can't blame the Howard government for the problems Labor had in office. They covered the full spectrum, from warped ideology, broad scale policy failure and of course the internal problems within the party itself that led to two leadership changes while on office.

No, but that's not what he was blaming on Howard. He was blaming him for the pathetic state of our broadband, and on that he's 100% correct.

From the inept privatisation of Telstra as a vertical monopoly, through the appointment of the "three amigos" and letting them get away with their ADSL2 rort and attempted FTTN rorts, through to the umpteen failed broadband policies over their time in office. The Howard Govt is totally responsible for the current atrocious state of the country's broadband networks, which Labor had to try and fix.

From the late 90's and through the 2000's as developed countries around the World rolled out FTTP and FTTN networks, we did absolutely nothing. If the Howard Govt had done the right thing in office, then we'd already have FTTN (or better), and we'd be looking towards an FTTP upgrade like so many in the OECD.

 

[drsmith]

Myths,

From where we stand now, what's your judgement on Labor's performance in this area ?