NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

Have you been missing me?

I have.

It's also good to know your home survived intact. I also still think it's not a good idea to mix business and politics, but obviously what you do there is up to you.

Is your conclusion from the BS article above that it will take as long to roll out FTTN as it does FTTP ?

 

[sails]

?..The question I have for you conservatives, is whether you will be as critical of the Coalition for their poor management/fantasy timetable/lack of research/ignorance of professional opinion as you have been of the ALP? Or will all be forgiven?

Myths - glad to hear your house is standing...

I doubt the coalition would have started such an extravagant program in the first place but now they are left with the mess labor have given them to try and patch up.

It's difficult to criticise them for trying to bring a better budget outcome while still attempting to complete a project somewhat already botched.

Never forget this was labor's extremely expensive hare-brained idea scratched out on a napkin in an aeroplane with a shocking price tag and cost benefit analysis kept secret from the public.

So it is not a case of comparing apples with apples as much as you might want to paint it that way.

 

[drsmith]

I doubt the coalition would have started such an extravagant program in the first place but now they are left with the mess labor have given them to try and patch up.

It's difficult to criticise them for trying to bring a better budget outcome while still attempting to complete a project somewhat already botched.

This I suspect is what upsets Myths the most. He backed Labor's project to the hilt only to see it unravel.

Simply bagging the Coalition and those whom he regards as its supporters though isn't going to change that. In the end politically, it's not going to come down the exact parameters each party said they would deliver, but a comparison and on that, Labor's project has already stumbled at many hurdles.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Coalition's end of 2016 date for 25mbps is revised down, but how many downward revisions did we have on the rollout targets with Labor's FTTP since it was announced ?

There's also the question of how the precise detail of the Coalition's rollout will look post its various reviews. Given his long and deep interest in the overall subject, it would be interesting to know Myths's views on Simon Hackett's appointment to the NBN Co. board.

 

[So_Cynical]

This I suspect is what upsets Myths the most. He backed Labor's project to the hilt only to see it unravel.

Unravel? huh WTF you talkin about?

The Noalition is unravelling it, destroying it with their half ass ideas and agendas.

 

[drsmith]

With the broader rollout currently proceeding as FTTP, we might still get some idea of how quickly it could have been delivered in this form.

The past two weeks have seen brownfields premises passed at the rate of approximately 8,000 and 5,000 per week respectively. That's an average of about 6,500 per week or 338,000 per year.

The past two weeks have also seen brownfields premises become serviceable at the rate of approximately 6,000 and 2,000 per week respectively. That's an average of about 4,000 per week or 208,000 per year.

The difference is service class zero which is described as follows,

Service Class Zero refers to premises passed by the active network, but for which a service cannot currently be ordered from a telephone or internet service provider because additional work is required, for example because there is cabling required for an apartment block.

A question though is the extent to which apartment blocks passed in the above stats will ultimately get FTTP.

http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco/documents/nbnco-rollout-metrics-10112013.pdf

It will be interesting to see how these figures vary in the weeks ahead.

 

[NBNMyths]

I have.

It's also good to know your home survived intact. I also still think it's not a good idea to mix business and politics, but obviously what you do there is up to you.

Is your conclusion from the BS article above that it will take as long to roll out FTTN as it does FTTP ?

From a zero starting point, FTTN would be faster. But FTTP is already underway, and there will be considerable time lost to changing technologies, contracts etc. I suspect that from the current starting point, there would be little difference in time taken.

Myths - glad to hear your house is standing...

I doubt the coalition would have started such an extravagant program in the first place but now they are left with the mess labor have given them to try and patch up.

It's difficult to criticise them for trying to bring a better budget outcome while still attempting to complete a project somewhat already botched.

Never forget this was labor's extremely expensive hare-brained idea scratched out on a napkin in an aeroplane with a shocking price tag and cost benefit analysis kept secret from the public.

So it is not a case of comparing apples with apples as much as you might want to paint it that way.

You're missing the point. One of the coalition's key planks was that they would deliver the NBN faster, specifically 25mbps by 2016. Anyone with even the vaguest idea of the tech knew well before the election that such a promise was undeliverable, and said so. Why let him off that hook?

The ridiculous claims about the "plane flight" origin of the FTTP plan from conservatives must just sound good, because they are easily (and regularly) debunked. There have been many reports and studies presented to Government about going with FTTP. Even dating back to the Howard years. Once Telstra refused to play ball with FTTN in 2007, the govt were left with little choice but to go with the FTTP recommendations of all those experts and panels.

And despite what you may have read in The Australian, the NBN is hardly botched. The only real thing that's off-plan is the fibre rollout rate. The cost, performance, takeup, arpu are all going very well.

 

[NBNMyths]

This I suspect is what upsets Myths the most. He backed Labor's project to the hilt only to see it unravel.

Simply bagging the Coalition and those whom he regards as its supporters though isn't going to change that. In the end politically, it's not going to come down the exact parameters each party said they would deliver, but a comparison and on that, Labor's project has already stumbled at many hurdles.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Coalition's end of 2016 date for 25mbps is revised down, but how many downward revisions did we have on the rollout targets with Labor's FTTP since it was announced ?

There's also the question of how the precise detail of the Coalition's rollout will look post its various reviews. Given his long and deep interest in the overall subject, it would be interesting to know Myths's views on Simon Hackett's appointment to the NBN Co. board.

My point is that the Coalition and its supporters have loudly criticised the NBN for not meeting targets, yet the coalition's targets are even more unrealistic. Rather hypocritical.

I have said before that I didn't think the NBN was perfect. I believe I even provided a list of things that could be changed. The big one of those currently is FTTB for MDUs. I'm quite happy for that, and NBN co should have embraced it faster, because the distance issues of FTTN don't apply. But for detached houses, FTTP should continue. Installing 60,000 ugly, fridge size cabinets on footpaths, to install an obsolete, slow, power-hungry FTTN network is a Very Bad Idea, which we will regret in coming years.

I think Simon will be a good addition to the NBN board.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

My point is that the Coalition and its supporters have loudly criticised the NBN for not meeting targets, yet the coalition's targets are even more unrealistic. Rather hypocritical.

I have said before that I didn't think the NBN was perfect. I believe I even provided a list of things that could be changed. The big one of those currently is FTTB for MDUs. I'm quite happy for that, and NBN co should have embraced it faster, because the distance issues of FTTN don't apply. But for detached houses, FTTP should continue. Installing 60,000 ugly, fridge size cabinets on footpaths, to install an obsolete, slow, power-hungry FTTN network is a Very Bad Idea, which we will regret in coming years.

I think Simon will be a good addition to the NBN board.

I have little expertise in what you presently discuss.

Read the Australian today for a forensic account of this brainfart by Rudd and one of his ministers on the birth of the NBN.

It lacked startegic planning and proper governance and an adequate risk/benefit analysis from it's birth.

I see you as an apologist, attemting to confound members of ASF with technical jargon, when it is the business case that is moot.

gg

 

[NBNMyths]

I have little expertise in what you presently discuss.

Read the Australian today for a forensic account of this brainfart by Rudd and one of his ministers on the birth of the NBN.

It lacked startegic planning and proper governance and an adequate risk/benefit analysis from it's birth.

I see you as an apologist, attemting to confound members of ASF with technical jargon, when it is the business case that is moot.

gg

It's a highly technical project. "Technical jargon" is at the crux of the debate. That's why it should be technical people making the decisions, not Australian journos. If you don't know the difference between FTTP, FTTB and FTTN, and you have no desire to learn the differences, advantages and disadvantages of each, then this is not a debate you should be participating in, any more than you'd participate in a debate of what type of asphalt the RTA are using to resurface the freeway.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It's a highly technical project. "Technical jargon" is at the crux of the debate. That's why it should be technical people making the decisions, not Australian journos. If you don't know the difference between FTTP, FTTB and FTTN, and you have no desire to learn the differences, advantages and disadvantages of each, then this is not a debate you should be participating in, any more than you'd participate in a debate of what type of asphalt the RTA are using to resurface the freeway.

Your argument is similar to Coles deciding to sell exotic fruit, devoting 15% of sales area to exotic fruit, no ifs nor buts, without looking at the business case, risk, reward, dangers, opportunities.

You are arguing the succulence of Davondus Fruit versus Pinkallilly Pear.

It just ain't a goer, dollar wise.

OK.

gg

 

[drsmith]

I have said before that I didn't think the NBN was perfect. I believe I even provided a list of things that could be changed. The big one of those currently is FTTB for MDUs.

With that and your approval of Simon Hackett on the board, there's perhaps a growing common ground between the Coalition and yourself.

As for FTTB, you might want to change the commentary on your site to better reflect where you now stand.

Why not FTTN?

Following the failure of the coalition broadband policy at the 2010 Federal Election, opposition spokesperson Malcolm Turnbull has begun strongly advocating a Fibre To The Node (FTTN) / Fibre To The Cabinet (FTTC) / Fibre To The Basement (FTTB) alternative, which he claims would be cheaper than the Fibre To The Premises (FTTP) NBN, but just as good. So, why not?

http://nbnmyths.wordpress.com/why-not-fttn/

My bolds.

 

[NBNMyths]

With that and your approval of Simon Hackett on the board, there's perhaps a growing common ground between the Coalition and yourself.

As for FTTB, you might want to change the commentary on your site to better reflect where you now stand.



http://nbnmyths.wordpress.com/why-not-fttn/

My bolds.

Perhaps I need to be clearer. My stance hasn't changed. I have always said that frustrated MDUs should get FTTB, because a stubborn body corporate shouldn't stand in the way of tennants getting decent broadband. But FTTP should be the primary objective, and made available if the body corporate doesn't stand in the way. While FTTB isn't as much of an issue as FTTN, it will still one day be the bottleneck. But giving them FTTN is better than nothing. The body corporate issue isn't an issue outside MDUs though, so there's no need to 'settle' for an inferior system. There's no legal impediment to connecting FTTP to detached dwellings, just as there's no legal impediment to running fibre into the basement of an mdu.

The "why not FTTN" page speaks about the plans as a whole, and I think I'll leave it as is.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Your argument is similar to Coles deciding to sell exotic fruit, devoting 15% of sales area to exotic fruit, no ifs nor buts, without looking at the business case, risk, reward, dangers, opportunities.

You are arguing the succulence of Davondus Fruit versus Pinkallilly Pear.

It just ain't a goer, dollar wise.

OK.

gg

I note NBNMyths you are unable, or choose not, to reply to my post.

You are too close to the Pinkallilly Pear.

Too far from the lack of a business case.

Suck on, brother.

gg

 

[NBNMyths]

Your argument is similar to Coles deciding to sell exotic fruit, devoting 15% of sales area to exotic fruit, no ifs nor buts, without looking at the business case, risk, reward, dangers, opportunities.

You are arguing the succulence of Davondus Fruit versus Pinkallilly Pear.

It just ain't a goer, dollar wise.

OK.

gg

I note NBNMyths you are unable, or choose not, to reply to my post.

You are too close to the Pinkallilly Pear.

Too far from the lack of a business case.

Suck on, brother.

gg

I didn't think it deserved a reply, but since you seem upset by that, here you go:

It's a ridiculous analogy.

The NBN has a business case.

Australia is near the bottom of the OECD broadband table. Numerous studies showed (and show) that Australians want better broadband, and support the NBN.

There are numerous studies from around the World as to the economic benefits of a super fast broadband network.

The takeup of the NBN is ahead of expectations, ahead of any similar project here or overseas. 10x higher than the takeup of ADSL was after a similar period of availability.

Takeup of the high-end NBN plans is about 3x higher than forecast, leading to the NBN having a higher ARPU (average revenue per user) than predicted, or required by the business case.


....suck on, brother....

 

[drsmith]

Perhaps I need to be clearer. My stance hasn't changed. I have always said that frustrated MDUs should get FTTB, because a stubborn body corporate shouldn't stand in the way of tennants getting decent broadband. But FTTP should be the primary objective, and made available if the body corporate doesn't stand in the way. While FTTB isn't as much of an issue as FTTN, it will still one day be the bottleneck. But giving them FTTN is better than nothing. The body corporate issue isn't an issue outside MDUs though, so there's no need to 'settle' for an inferior system. There's no legal impediment to connecting FTTP to detached dwellings, just as there's no legal impediment to running fibre into the basement of an mdu.

The "why not FTTN" page speaks about the plans as a whole, and I think I'll leave it as is.

Sitting on the fence with one leg either side doesn't become a valid stance after you've been seen in both paddocks.

There's nothing wrong with adjusting your point of view as new information comes to light. It might also help to understand that the view can be different in the absence of the prism of political bias.

 

[sydboy007]

Your argument is similar to Coles deciding to sell exotic fruit, devoting 15% of sales area to exotic fruit, no ifs nor buts, without looking at the business case, risk, reward, dangers, opportunities.

You are arguing the succulence of Davondus Fruit versus Pinkallilly Pear.

It just ain't a goer, dollar wise.

OK.

gg

Sounds more comparable to the Coalition 88 pages of relatively useless information on their proposed FTTN.

No mention of maximum cable distance to support proposed speeds, no estimate of how many nodes would be required, no details on if nodes will need active cooling, heck not even a proposed audit of the copper network to see if it's actually feasible to use it for FTTN in the majority of locations.

I don't understand how you can say the Coalition plan is better when you freely admit you have no idea about the whole technology being proposed.

 

[sydboy007]

Sitting on the fence with one leg either side doesn't become a valid stance after you've been seen in both paddocks.

There's nothing wrong with adjusting your point of view as new information comes to light. It might also help to understand that the view can be different in the absence of the prism of political bias.

I think he's explained himself well enough. He's always said fibre is the best way forward, but acknowledges that a majority of body corps are unable / unwilling to get their act together to enable fibre to be installed into the apartments, so FTTB is a reasonable compromise as it will likely be able to provide 100Mbs due to the short copper run. Once NBN have the node installed in the basement, any delays are the body corps, not NBNs. Gets them out of the stupid politics that seems to rule a lot of body corps these days.

I've come to the same conclusion. You can lead a horse to water...

 

[drsmith]

In relation to MDU's, the following is perhaps worthy of review and in particular, Simon Hackett's response to a question at the end.

http://simonhackett.com/2013/07/17/nbn-fibre-on-a-copper-budget/

 

[drsmith]

NBN Co interim satellite service nearing capacity,

NBN Co’s interim satellites are reaching full capacity and the government-owned company has started turning away new customers in rural Victoria. These customers must rely on existing broadband infrastructure until NBN Co launches two custom-made satellites in 2015.

Satellite beams covering NSW, Tasmania and Queensland were also close to capacity, while those covering central and western Australia had some space left.

NBN Co only has enough space for 48,000 customers nationally on its interim satellite and has already connected 42,044 premises, according to figures released this week.

http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/government-it/nbn-satellites-near-full-capacity-20131115-hv2m5.html

 

[NBNMyths]

NBN Co interim satellite service nearing capacity,



http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/government-it/nbn-satellites-near-full-capacity-20131115-hv2m5.html

That was always going to be the case, I think. NBN said long ago that they'd purchased as much capacity as they could do economically.

The interesting thing is that it was only 18 months ago that Turnbull was whinging about NBN co buying/launching their own satellites, because "there was no need", saying they could lease enough space on existing sats. Now here we are less than half way to the new sat launches, and the capacity he thought would be adequate for decades is almost gone.

Who could have predicted that people would make more use of the internet.....