The future of Australian property prices

[numbercruncher]

Hi Sparticus -


Your wee attacks on SCM are detracting from the Property Price debate -

Maybe this is intentional as you have no prices are rising substance to add anymore ?

Maybe you could belittle him via inbox rather than in open forum format ?

He does seem to have the advantage of being able to articulate himself better than your good self I notice though

 

[prawn_86]

Back on topic please. A lot of posts here that are not discussing "The future of Australian Property Prices".

Final warning. Off topic posts will be removed and infractions issued

 

[numbercruncher]

Ooooh -


Some more property crash evidence of my own.

Was just speaking to my RE agent and the property Im currently living in just appraised up at 20pc below what the "owner" was asking 6 months ago - - got to love property bubbles .... So in 6 months the owner has got like 10k in rent and over 100k in equity loss .....

Might have to offer them a rent deduction to keep my good self here - or perhaps its change of view time ..... plenty of property available these days ....

 

[prawn_86]

plenty of property available these days ....

Melbourne has a huge over supply over apartments. We looked at heaps and didnt apply to one we thought was perfect, and we got that straight away

 

[im sparticus]

Ooooh -


Some more property crash evidence of my own.

Was just speaking to my RE agent and the property Im currently living in just appraised up at 20pc below what the "owner" was asking 6 months ago - - got to love property bubbles .... So in 6 months the owner has got like 10k in rent and over 100k in equity loss .....

Might have to offer them a rent deduction to keep my good self here - or perhaps its change of view time ..... plenty of property available these days ....

Not debating direction, just debating magnitude how someone can call crash to property when its off by less than most asset classes and is still returning same yeilds is a bit strange why the need to blow on asset class out of proportion whilst rooting for the other that is off by more and has no yeild is bazzar, all the best with your rental decrease let us know how you go and how much money time and effort you waste moving...into the hands of your next land LORD. whilst you ex gets new tennants in at a higher price (my experiance with tennants anyway).

Howmaytimes do you need to get caught out blowing things out of proportion better look up th definition of a crash (hit it doesnt go on a single transaction)

 

[im sparticus]

But i do get where your comming from if i was a tennant ide be rooting for a housing colapse too but as scm has illuded to most will be unemployed by then unable to take advantage of the low low prices anyway you loose again. must be frustrating.

 

[numbercruncher]

...into the hands of your next land LORD.

Haha your such a lover of perceived power ...... Im sure a psychologist could tell us interesting things about you from posts ?

anyways .....

If I did decide to move the Money renting property specualtor is still paying 6pc interest whilst trying to attract a tenant that will pay less than 5pc in a falling market - awesome investment !!!

Your right with falling prices I guess the yield rises on current market value and thats if they find another tenant who pays on time everytime

 

[Starcraftmazter]

But i do get where your comming from if i was a tennant ide be rooting for a housing colapse too but as scm has illuded to most will be unemployed by then unable to take advantage of the low low prices anyway you loose again. must be frustrating.

I fail to see how I lose or what is so frustrating, nor of what importance other people are and their ability to "take advantage" of anything.

The issue is simple, we are experiencing a property crash, and prices will plummet much further - the bust has only just began. Who will buy what when is irrelevant. I don't plan to "take advantage" of it either - there is nothing to take advantage of, nor any big opportunity coming. Rather, housing is merely returning to it's traditional utility of providing shelter as speculators get squeezed out of the market, and prices will return to normal and stay there for the foreseeable future.

It has been 100 years between the last great housing bubble of the 1890s and the current, so using that as historic precedent, we will not get another bubble for at least 100 years, though I highly doubt it will happen ever again for a variety of reasons.


There is nothing to look forward to, housing prices will simply return to normality. Those people wishing to buy a house or unit to live in, will then be able to do so with a fair amount of money - that being, three times their annual salary. They will then be able to live their life in peace, being able to pay off their property in a few years, without having to slave away for their debt their entire lives.

In other words, things will simply return to normal.

 

[im sparticus]

My experiance with tennants by im sparticus:

12 months have passes and the lease has expired(i could have served them notice 60days prior but im a gentleman). I serve them notice for what seems to be fair market rent....tennants refuse i offer to meet half way....tennants want to meet half of halfway....no deal notice served at halfway... tennants give lots of excuses but eventually move out and into a lesser place they can more easily afford.....new tennants agree to price either at or above my initial offer.....place is untennanted for less than 3days i loose a weeks rent and tennant looses a weeks rent in moving costs which is sometimes all the rental increase was to begin with.... so be it

every single dealing with a tennant has gone this way since 2005.

 

[moXJO]

Are the majority of posters here from Melbourne?

 

[im sparticus]

Haha your such a lover of perceived power ...... Im sure a psychologist could tell us interesting things about you from posts ?

anyways .....

If I did decide to move the Money renting property specualtor is still paying 6pc interest whilst trying to attract a tenant that will pay less than 5pc in a falling market - awesome investment !!!

Your right with falling prices I guess the yield rises on current market value and thats if they find another tenant who pays on time everytime

And of the ones that by outright are they better off than the gold bug.

Never had a late payment btw but i try not to cater to the lower socioeconomic types.

 

[numbercruncher]

Are the majority of posters here from Melbourne?

Property Crash Ground Zero - Gold Coast

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Are the majority of posters here from Melbourne?

Sydney myself; the reason Melbourne is being discussed so much is probably because it is by far the worst looking of all cities as far as future drops are concerned.

 

[moXJO]

Property Crash Ground Zero - Gold Coast

lol no wonder you are so bearish. I think Vic will be the undoing of the nation if it comes to pass though.

My worry is deflation as sparticus mentioned and the current IR laws / expenses creating a noose for business. Will it be setting up a domino effect in the not too distant future?

For the meanwhile I'm enjoying a mini boom in my home town

 

[moXJO]

Sydney myself; the reason Melbourne is being discussed so much is probably because it is by far the worst looking of all cities as far as future drops are concerned.

Yeah I agree with the above (but from a standing on the outside looking in viewpoint). Other factors are at play in Vic as well though. I think business will be stuffed down there due to the current IR environment and union lobbying

 

[numbercruncher]

lol no wonder you are so bearish. I think Vic will be the undoing of the nation if it comes to pass though.

My worry is deflation as sparticus mentioned and the current IR laws / expenses creating a noose for business. Will it be setting up a domino effect in the not too distant future?

For the meanwhile I'm enjoying a mini boom in my home town

Mini Boom ? Mining Town ?

 

[im sparticus]

Sydney myself; the reason Melbourne is being discussed so much is probably because it is by far the worst looking of all cities as far as future drops are concerned.

Ding ding ding we have a winner johnny.........confirmation bias is why you concerntrate on mel.

 

[im sparticus]

Haha your such a lover of perceived power ...... Im sure a psychologist could tell us interesting things about you from posts ?

anyways .....

If I did decide to move the Money renting property specualtor is still paying 6pc interest whilst trying to attract a tenant that will pay less than 5pc in a falling market - awesome investment !!!

Your right with falling prices I guess the yield rises on current market value and thats if they find another tenant who pays on time everytime

Pretty naive to assume your lords are running 100% lvr. kaboom number blows another out of proportion!

 

[medicowallet]

My experiance with tennants by im sparticus:

12 months have passes and the lease has expired(i could have served them notice 60days prior but im a gentleman). I serve them notice for what seems to be fair market rent....tennants refuse i offer to meet half way....tennants want to meet half of halfway....no deal notice served at halfway... tennants give lots of excuses but eventually move out and into a lesser place they can more easily afford.....new tennants agree to price either at or above my initial offer.....place is untennanted for less than 3days i loose a weeks rent and tennant looses a weeks rent in moving costs which is sometimes all the rental increase was to begin with.... so be it

every single dealing with a tennant has gone this way since 2005.

IDC if you lose a week's rent, or a month's rent or a year's rent...

just, lose an O

MW

 

[satanoperca]

I'm Sparticus,

What do you consider a property correction, % drop from peak?
What do you consider a crash, % drop from peak?

Ie correction 10-15%
Crash 15% >

Might help some reader understand what you are trying to discuss.

Cheers

Still waiting for that beer.