The future of Australian property prices

[satanoperca]

The future is down down, prices are down.

From RPdata.

Melbourne qtr -1.49% yr/yr -7.17%

5 capital city aggregate qtr -1.03% yr/yr -5.00%

And they are still going down down down

Melbourne Qtr -2.89% Yr -7.62%

5 capital city aggregate: Qtr -1.54% Yr -5.12%

Oh what a difference a couple of weeks makes.

Trending down, gaining momentum.

What will another 50bps drop in IR's dow, just slow it down a little.

Cheers and keeping it real for all those Greeks soldiers out there.

 

[MrBurns]

Looks like RP Data can't fudge the figures any more.

 

[satanoperca]

Looks like RP Data can't fudge the figures any more.

Exactly, it is for all to see, but don't worry Mr Burns it is not as bad as the share market apparently. Really depends on your choice of cancer.

 

[MrBurns]

Exactly, it is for all to see, but don't worry Mr Burns it is not as bad as the share market apparently. Really depends on your choice of cancer.

It's about time the market (property) corrected, or crashed again it always does, then it will recover again one day.....a long way off this time I think.

Share market here looks like it's bouncing back but it's 3 steps down and one back up, I think it's on it's way right down, no matter how much Obama orders Europe to tcome good. it just wont happen unless his cheque book is massive and he's broke anyway.

So where are the positive signs going forward in any market ??? there are non.

 

[DB008]

Sales Of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Probably Climbed In April

Sales of existing U.S. homes probably rose in April for the first time in three months, indicating the industry is stabilizing, economists said before a report today.
Purchases climbed 2.9 percent to a 4.61 million annual rate last month, according to the median forecast of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The pace would be just shy of the 4.63 million reached in January that was the strongest in more than a year.

 

[medicowallet]

Sales Of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Probably Climbed In April

it would want to with such low interest rates and money printing.. with china slowing, how long will it last though

 

[Logique]

Well I've rarely been so confused on an investment decision. I am not hinting for advice.

To remain in a direct (i.e. unlisted - retail/commercial/industrial) property fund, or seek partial redemption on a (rare) opportunity. Thing is, their analysis of the commercial market points to a steady recovery, and the distributions are better than bank interest.

They say that with financing tight, supply is constrained, so the balance is tipping to demand over supply. I think I've talked myself into staying put.

 

[numbercruncher]

Funny thing was looking on Realestate.com.au last night and saw a house that recently sold on the same street as I sold my house in 2003 (on Gold Coast )- and it sold for less !!

Given my house was a better house but certainly not 9 years of inflation/interest/insurance/rates/stamp duties etc worth !!

ANd prices are still appear to be Tumbling - thats some serious Wedge property speculators are losing if selling ....

 

[Glen48]

Know how you feel only I had to sell due to divorce lost 1m. in 2003 the bubble was only 1/2 pumped up and still had 10 yrs to go before the crash.
Look for the next bubble to cash in on.

 

[Glen48]

A slowdown in China should have a big impact on its '51st state' - Australia. While China's massive demand for resources has shielded Australia from the global financial crash to a great extent, this is now set to go into reverse.

This would be bad enough even if Australia was in a hugely sound economic state. But it's not. It has suffered a rampant housing bubble that has made it one of the most expensive places to live in the world. That bubble is already collapsing. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, average house prices have now fallen for five straight quarters.

Meanwhile, the latest economic surveys show that both the manufacturing and service sectors are in deep trouble, with activity in both shrinking rapidly. No wonder the Aussie dollar has toppled back through parity with the US dollar.

Matthew Partridge
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

 

[numbercruncher]

One of the Australian property permabulls in this thread was lipping on about how India's middle class is about to come online and send demand for resources through the roof along with His house price ...... aside from the BHP boss dissagreeing with the said thread contributor here is some more evidence to the contrary ....

India faces mass default and restructuring as devaluation looms | Reuters

By Jonathan Rogers

Tue May 22, 2012 8:57am EDT

SINGAPORE, May 22 (IFR) - India's mounting economic and political woes are prompting market players to raise the specter of a Greek-style crisis in Asia's third largest economy.

This is not simply idle speculation. Last Friday, the rupee crashed to an all-time low against the dollar of 54.9 and it was stuck most of Tuesday at the psychologically significant Rs55/USD level, where the currency is seen as having no obvious technical support. And the implications of a rupee collapse would be immense.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-india-devaluation-idUSBRE84L0N920120522

I think some people just assume that Large populations equal large economy - but the opposite can be very much more the reality. Kind of like if your own Home had 10 dependant mouths to feed instead of four -

 

[Aussiejeff]

One of the Australian property permabulls in this thread was lipping on about how India's middle class is about to come online and send demand for resources through the roof along with His house price ...... aside from the BHP boss dissagreeing with the said thread contributor here is some more evidence to the contrary ....




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-india-devaluation-idUSBRE84L0N920120522

I think some people just assume that Large populations equal large economy - but the opposite can be very much more the reality. Kind of like if your own Home had 10 dependant mouths to feed instead of four -

Well, India's economy is pretty damn big! In 2011 India's economy was ranked 11th with GDP of US$1.676143 Trillion, ahead of Spain (1.493513 Trillion) & Australia (13th with 1.488221 Trillion).

Lowly Greece was 35th with a GDP of a mere .303065 Trillion - around 1/5th of India's!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

If we are in such doo-doos with piddling little Greece, I shudder to think what an Indian crash might lead to with regard to the world and our economy/housing sector et all ....

Oh well, who cares - as long as the Gwhizz8+20 are in total control, nothing bad can possibly happen.

SPEND like there's no tomorrow!

 

[Glen48]

Guess go short on curry powder sales as well???

 

[numbercruncher]

Well, India's economy is pretty damn big! In 2011 India's economy was ranked 11th with GDP of US$1.676143 Trillion, ahead of Spain (1.493513 Trillion) & Australia (13th with 1.488221 Trillion).

Lowly Greece was 35th with a GDP of a mere .303065 Trillion - around 1/5th of India's!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

If we are in such doo-doos with piddling little Greece, I shudder to think what an Indian crash might lead to with regard to the world and our economy/housing sector et all ....

Oh well, who cares - as long as the Gwhizz8+20 are in total control, nothing bad can possibly happen.

SPEND like there's no tomorrow!

I should of said Healthy rather than large

Too right she is a huge economy !

 

[young-gun]

I should of said Healthy rather than large

Too right she is a huge economy !

I personally would look to India for growth in the future. Certainly not right now though. They will eventually go through a boom phase equal to or greater than China's. I can't see it beginning in the next decade though. That will be the next huge bubble to ride.

 

[Julia]

Meanwhile, the latest economic surveys show that both the manufacturing and service sectors are in deep trouble, with activity in both shrinking rapidly. No wonder the Aussie dollar has toppled back through parity with the US dollar.

Matthew Partridge
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

I've never heard of Mr Partridge. I did, however, have a free trial of "Money Morning" some years ago and found it contained some of the most awful rubbish I've ever read.

The OECD apparently disagree with Mr Partridge's conclusions, nominating Australia as one of the world's most healthy economies. The following is one of many references to this:
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3508780.htm

 

[numbercruncher]

The OECD predicting that Oz will outperform the rest of the developed World , says more about the rest of the World than it does about Oz Im thinking.....

Lets see what they have to say when they see next years figures.....

No one seriously believes we will run a surplus do they?

 

[Glen48]

Next step will be a tax on Oz taxpayers to bailout the mining companies.
Any one who thinks Swan is the Man and OZ business are not in trouble should visit before OZ before making any statements.

 

[Julia]

The OECD predicting that Oz will outperform the rest of the developed World , says more about the rest of the World than it does about Oz Im thinking.....

Yep, agree.

 

[young-gun]

The OECD predicting that Oz will outperform the rest of the developed World , says more about the rest of the World than it does about Oz Im thinking.....

Lets see what they have to say when they see next years figures.....

No one seriously believes we will run a surplus do they?

I hope your not second guessing swannys master plan NC.......