The future of Australian property prices

[Starcraftmazter]

in real terms its never been cheaper

Drugs are bad, mmmmk?

 

[numbercruncher]

Ha - thought that same thing when I read that spruiker comment ....

RE industry is just way under regulated , if a Licenced Stockbroker said the equivalent unfounded and misleading comment about a stock he would be dragged across the coals ....

 

[trainspotter]

I bet they pray to their satanic prophet of easy credit every night for some sort of a miracle

Just LOL at this gem of a moronic erudition. I am breaking my own rules and replying to you SCM.

I had lunch with the manager of the local Westpac branch today and I quote him verbatim ..... "We are no longer in the business of lending money, we are deposit takers only" ..... So where is the easy credit?

I wrote over 2 years ago that the banks are tightening their securitisation policy. I went into great detail as to why property is trancing sideways and trigger points that will cause this to quicken and explained as to the percentages required to deal in property.

Anyhoooooooo ....... No ! no ! no ..... property does not double in price every 7 years

Currently looking at a 4700m2 CBD block that I can get 12 units on. $127,000 per block strata titled completed. Building contract of 3 million. Proven sales evidence of 450k per unit. You do the math. Rental of $430 per week. Get purchaser to settle on vacant strata block and cashflow construction all with bank guarantees.

But, but, but I am being a greedy naughty property developer now aren't I by employing over 60 trades and putting money into the local council, utility services (think water, sewerage and power authorities) as well as the suppliers and local businessmans pocket (engineers, drafting services, floor coverings, landscaping, retaining walls, driveway contractors etc ad infinitum) and keeping the economy going by creating WORK !!!!!!!!!!!!

Aaaaaaaaahhhhh more to it than meets the eye now isn't there. OR I could put my money in the bank and earn 6% and watch the local business and trades slowly go under due to lack of work and as I watch the local council steadily increase their land rates to cover the services of the proletariat as no NEW houses or land is being developed.

Guess what ??? No work for the engineers either. You are the worlds greatest engineer and smarter than 99% of ALL engineers (as per your own statement) right? So if I do not spend my money employing YOU how do YOU survive???

 

[Starcraftmazter]

But, but, but I am being a greedy naughty property developer now aren't I by employing over 60 trades and putting money into the local council, utility services (think water, sewerage and power authorities) as well as the suppliers and local businessmans pocket (engineers, drafting services, floor coverings, landscaping, retaining walls, driveway contractors etc ad infinitum) and keeping the economy going by creating WORK !!!!!!!!!!!!

I have no qualm with developers adding to the overcapacity of housing. Please continue to build on!

Aaaaaaaaahhhhh more to it than meets the eye now isn't there. OR I could put my money in the bank and earn 6%

Only simpletons think in absolutes.

Guess what ??? No work for the engineers either. You are the worlds greatest engineer and smarter than 99% of ALL engineers (as per your own statement) right? So if I do not spend my money employing YOU how do YOU survive???

Luckily construction is not the only industry in Australia. If it was, I would be quite worried indeed!

 

[im sparticus]

Nonsense. Claims like this demand substantiation, please provide your justification and a chart. Considering the ABS released it's latest housing data recently, this is an especially nonsensical claim to make that 10% off the highs is 'never been cheaper'. It was this cheap last time we were here!

When it comes to residential housing, there is no more real measure than affordability. If you feel that average prices which have increased several orders of magnitude against average incomes in the last 10-20-30 years, I have a few Gold Coast properties to sell you.



Who cares about 'everyone'? House prices are set at the margin, almost entirely on the back of new bank credit creation.

you simply cannot nor will you ever be able produce a house for the sorts of prices you guys think is fair value or the prices people are charging for established.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

you simply cannot nor will you ever be able produce a house for the sorts of prices you guys think is fair value or the prices people are charging for established.

You realise that most of the cost of a land + property package is the land, right?
You realise this cost is a matter of credit - and has nothing to do with supply and demand anymore, right?
You realise that even the cost of constructing a property (which is already modest compared to the cost of land) will drop further once the commodity bubble bursts, and wages deflate, right?

Right?

 

[trainspotter]

I have no qualm with developers adding to the overcapacity of housing. Please continue to build on!

The development in question is undersupplied in the market place/proximity at the moment. Hence why I have gone to extreme measures to elucidate "CERTAIN AREAS" in many of my posts.

Only simpletons think in absolutes.

ERGO you are a simpleton as I am merely spewing forth your own views as per your previous diatribe.

Luckily construction is not the only industry in Australia. If it was, I would be quite worried indeed!

So the engineers that have specialised in this area are to fold right? By your own admittance you are ahead of 99% of the competition.

I wrote several posts on the "VELOCITY OF CASHFLOW THROUGH THE ECONOMY" but you are completely aware of all of these symposiums and the adverse effects on everyone literally sitting on their hands and doing nothing aren't you?

Once again I have responded to the troll

 

[Starcraftmazter]

The development in question is undersupplied in the market place/proximity at the moment. Hence why I have gone to extreme measures to elucidate "CERTAIN AREAS" in many of my posts.

That's your impression.

ERGO you are a simpleton as I am merely spewing forth your own views as per your previous diatribe.

My views are not that the only two places to put ones' money is property speculation and a bank savings account.

So the engineers that have specialised in this area are to fold right?

Fold what? Shirts?

Once again I have responded to the troll

Responding to yourself you mean? Suggesting the your construction activity employs all software engineers in the country is either trolling or stupidity. You pick.

 

[DB008]

Just had a mate fix up his house and put it on the rental market here in Sydney.

He thought to himself, market is a bit soft, l'll go fishing on 'Gumtree' (of all places) to test the water. Within 4 hours it was snapped up with a signed tenant @$550, and offers of $700 were rolling in just after he signed that tenant. This is out in Greater Western Sydney, not Inner City or Lower North Shore. Yield will be around 8%-10%.

SCM - I see that you have left my question 'unanswered' in the Singapore thread that you started. My My, how convenient. Eager to rant and rave on the property thread, but unable to answer 1 of 4 (or is it 5) questions in another threat. LOL.

 

[numbercruncher]

Which Western suburb Danny ?

 

[DB008]

Which Western suburb Danny ?

Can't give you 100% name, but l think it's Revesby. I will confirm it this coming week.
Decent sized house, 4 x 2 l think, again, l'll find out for you.

 

[numbercruncher]

Intersting that your friend was getting offers of $700 a week through Gumtree for that type of property -

Realestate.com.au has 110 places in that suburb for rent - dearest is 725 and very schmick - For around that 500 still huge houses available ie - for 550 There is a 5 bedder plus granny flat .....

Maybe everyone should seek out tenants through gumtree to gain that premium price hey ?

 

[trainspotter]

8 Capital City outcome will be closer to 5% DOWN per annum for the 2012/2013 irrespecive of Reserve Bank dropping of monetary policy and or global predictions.

Using ABS figures or whoever you like this WILL be the outcome due to job losses as well as restrictive lending practices of the banks to contain their losses and to subdue shareholders.

BUT ....... and it is a big BUT ....... in saying this it means that money is cheap to lend if you are securitised with presales. Once again I reiterate in "CERTAIN AREAS" it is still possible to make a profit in RE. See previous posts for a complex dealing that may or may not come along down the gravy train.

Same as buying shares ...... DYOR

 

[im sparticus]

You realise that most of the cost of a land + property package is the land, right?
You realise this cost is a matter of credit - and has nothing to do with supply and demand anymore, right?
You realise that even the cost of constructing a property (which is already modest compared to the cost of land) will drop further once the commodity bubble bursts, and wages deflate, right?

Right?

you do realise we are 4 odd years to the otherside of the greatest financial crisis of our time, right?

 

[im sparticus]

reposted for somewhere else

"You’re never going to make BIG money betting against the market. That is a fact. There will be pockets of weakness, in between rip your face off rallies. To believe that “this time is different” is always a suckers bet. By betting against progress and prosperity, via clamoring for market disaster, that’s exactly what you are doing.

I will bet against that bubble every single time."

 

[moXJO]

Mate just sold his house $5k more than he expected and about $80k more than I expected. It backs onto a major motorway as well. The house next door sold as well for a price I thought was impossible not long after. I'm a bit surprised, imo someone paid too much

 

[Starcraftmazter]

you do realise we are 4 odd years to the otherside of the greatest financial crisis of our time, right?

You realise that Swanny merely postponed the crisis in Australia - and the chickens are coming home to roost right?

You realise a crisis is not a singular point in the space time continuum right?

China growth plummeting, USA over 100% debt to GDP, Greece about to default on a further $200Bn+. Oh no, GFC was just the proverbial on-tray.

Maybe you should pay more attention to economic analysis, everybody is finally getting on-board in relation to the fact that Australia is about to crash and burn.

Australia headed for the 'Mother of all Hard Landings' - SocGen

“(In Australia) We see a credit bubble built on a commodity bull market based on a much bigger Chinese credit bubble,” Edwards said in a report. “Of all the bubbles I have seen over the last 30 years in this industry, this one is even more obvious.”

 

[Glen48]

Getting and keep every one in debt is enslaving the world's population once you are caught tn the debt trap it is impossible for you to react to government decisions.

The IMF is attempting to take over the worlds assets such as power, water, rail and national treasures.
In Greece a large Aluminum company got a government agreement to sell power back to the feds and buy power from the feds for 60% less.
Any attempt to privatise any national complex has resulted in failure and ended up costing the taxpayers more.

 

[im sparticus]

Lol, are you guys capitalists or conspiracy theorists?

You do realise the market priced in everything your privy to and some long before you realised it...right?

 

[numbercruncher]

Lol, are you guys capitalists or conspiracy theorists?

You do realise the market priced in everything your privy to and some long before you realised it...right?

How could you possibly know what he or anyone is privy to or in realisation of .... you speak like some kind of crystal ball reading soothsayer .... perhaps you are !