The future of Australian property prices

[ROE]

property investors need an incentive, with tax breaks, just like any other investor...
it is cheaper for the taxpayer, then the old method from the pre 70's era

land tax is a fairer system..hong kong has this model works beautifully
they lower almost all tax and abolish most tax ...

you can own as many properties as you like as long as you can afford land tax payment
so not many ppl do so they all start buiness and employ people as it is more effective use of the capital and hence hong kong is star in Asia, booming economy and business.

company and people income dont pay much tax...max tax rate there is 17%
but you have to earn big 6 figures to attract this 17%

 

[CanOz]

hong kong is star in Asia, booming economy and business.

Hong Kong was recently voted as being the 'Best Business City in the World'...again. Its a wonderful city, and although I've been there for a couple of years, Singapore is not far behind.

Its extremely expensive to rent or buy in HK.. if you have not already owned property or are on an expat package then it would be tough.

But to eat there is really cheap for the quality of food you get. I was there on a visa run with my wife on Monday and Tuesday and we would eat in these little HK cafes and get a bowl won ton soup for like, 20 HK $. I was eating a full breakfast for 45 HK$....because if their SARS experience they are almost as crazy about hygiene as the Singaporeans.

I was the only foreigner in the place for the whole two days and they were so friendly to me.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Macquack]

Voyager Homes just so happens to be the builder in question !! Thanks for the gratuitous plug of my building company.

To give you some direction .... the building company is to be called HOME BUILDING CORPORATION Pty Ltd T/as "Voyager Homes"

Trainspotter, care to enlighten us on your involvement in the collapse of home builder HBC trading as "Voyager Homes"?

Voyager hits wall
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/regional/gascoyne/a/-/news/9965336/voyager-hits-wall/

 

[moXJO]

What was the date of those posts?

 

[tech/a]

Trainspotter, care to enlighten us on your involvement in the collapse of home builder HBC trading as "Voyager Homes"?

Voyager hits wall
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/regional/gascoyne/a/-/news/9965336/voyager-hits-wall/

The guys in Portugal so if I was him wouldn't be rushing to ASF.

Secondly he said they were his builder.
What makes you think that the use of a builder
Is a prerequisite to having anything to do with the running
Of that building company

The builder that built my home 2 yrs ago is no longer trading.

Witch hunt I detect!

 

[Macquack]

The guys in Portugal so if I was him wouldn't be rushing to ASF.

He posted yesterday?

Secondly he said they were his builder.
What makes you think that the use of a builder
Is a prerequisite to having anything to do with the running
Of that building company

tech/a, have a look at trainspotters thread titled "Advertising techniques" and see what you think. The whole thread is about marketing of Voyager Homes.

Witch hunt I detect!

Hardly a witch hunt, just a fair and reasonable question.

 

[McLovin]

tech/a, have a look at trainspotters thread titled "Advertising techniques" and see what you think. The whole thread is about marketing of Voyager Homes.



Hardly a witch hunt, just a fair and reasonable question.

Here's the thread in question...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17247&page=5

Seems a very reasonable question.

 

[tech/a]

He posted yesterday?



tech/a, have a look at trainspotters thread titled "Advertising techniques" and see what you think. The whole thread is about marketing of Voyager Homes.



Hardly a witch hunt, just a fair and reasonable question.

Well he either over exaggerated his position with regard to Voyager.
Or he's one of those mentioned with a liquidation headache.

600k with 3 houses under construction doesn't sound totally devastating.
But hey it happens.
I'm down 50% in profits this year and it's damned tough.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

RP Data rejects 'housing bubble' claims



http://www.theadviser.com.au/breaking-news/6112-rp-data-rejects-housing-bubble-claims

So the only two pieces of "evidence" are that;

1. Most mortgage holders are upfront on their payments - which holds no relation whatsoever to whether there is a property bubble or not.

2. There is a population boom - which is entirely false, as the "population boom" - which was very small to begin with, ended when the GFC began. Regardless - that too is irrelevant to whether there is a property bubble or not.

 

[Knobby22]

2. There is a population boom - which is entirely false, as the "population boom" - which was very small to begin with, ended when the GFC began. Regardless - that too is irrelevant to whether there is a property bubble or not.

We have the highest immigration rate in our recent history. That is what is causing the population boom.
Come to Melbourne, Chinatown has expanded well beyond the one street in the CBD that used to exist and every shop is run by new Australians with accents.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

We have the highest immigration rate in our recent history. That is what is causing the population boom.
Come to Melbourne, Chinatown has expanded well beyond the one street in the CBD that used to exist and every shop is run by new Australians with accents.

I live in Sydney and believe me it's much the same. Melbourne has the most spare capacity of any city in the country, and so it doesn't matter how many people are settling there.

However to refute the point - our population growth is in fact well below our recent highest growth rate.




Given that a lot of people have moved here from Europe in recent years seeking employment - and we are now facing a situation where jobs are actually disappearing - that trend too is in the process of reversing. So all in all, we will see even less population growth going into the future now.

Couple that with the fact that a slowdown in China is forcing our biggest miners to rethink future investments, that will be an end of foreign mine worker immigration - a double wammy for population growth.

 

[MrBurns]

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/8448289/negative-gearing-debate-needed-robertson

NSW Opposition Leader John Robertson has called for a debate on whether negative gearing is harming housing affordability.

 

[Miss Hale]

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/8448289/negative-gearing-debate-needed-robertson

Interesting, this topic was broached on Meet the Press this morning too. The guest was Dr Cassandra Goldie head of the Australian Council of Social Service. The question posed to her by Hugh rimmington was, "negative gearing, its time has come, it has to go?"

Dr Goldie's response was "We had a report out just yesterday saying, negative gearing is at the heart of problem with inflating housing prices and it's not playing out leading to increased supply of housing. We’ve got a crisis here so let's have a bit of courage to deal with it."


Transcript here http://ten.com.au/media/MEET_THE_PRESS_Transcript_BRANDIS_GOLDIE.pdf (right at the bottom).

 

[So_Cynical]

Trainspotter, care to enlighten us on your involvement in the collapse of home builder HBC trading as "Voyager Homes"?

Voyager hits wall
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/regional/gascoyne/a/-/news/9965336/voyager-hits-wall/

Is it wrong that this news gives me a twinge of pleasure. :dunno: well if TS is worth even a quarter of what he talks then the loss of a couple of 100K is hardly gona hurt him.

 

[young-gun]

Do some business as opposed to work.
I feel my assumption stands.



Thanks for your concern
Yes some holdings have been liquidated to freehold others.
In downturns cash is king a debt is the devil. The other long term lurker is possible inflation. With it interest rate rises. Something highly geared investors don't want to be caught with. So yes risk mitigation--- for me at least is a top priority--- with all investing.



Strange comment--- on the one hand you " could jump " at any minute but onthe other your warning me of a 30% downturn in my holdings?

This has by the way happened on some holdings.
Not a game breaker due to time of entry.
However if you were late on the scene or hadn't calculated it in your development
It would be painful.
My latest is less than perfect.
The drop in R/E prices has left me with a lot less profit than I could have had in the past.
But like a trade--- you'll get some great trades and some not so great.
Business ---- pure and simple.

you're assumption remains incorrect.

and no its not a strange comment at all. you see, like i said, i am prepared for every outcome. if i should think there actually is an opportunity and housing should actually look like its on the up and up then i am ready for it, but if i think that RE isnt a great investment at this point in time, i can wait it out for 6 months.

i know i know, there is an opportunity around every corner!! im more than happy to let you have those for now.....

 

[young-gun]

Well he either over exaggerated his position with regard to Voyager.
Or he's one of those mentioned with a liquidation headache.

600k with 3 houses under construction doesn't sound totally devastating.
But hey it happens.
I'm down 50% in profits this year and it's damned tough.

tell me tech, have there been any other points in all of your experience that profits have been down 50%? not from your mistakes(presuming you made some) but from a slowing market?

Is it wrong that this news gives me a twinge of pleasure. :dunno: well if TS is worth even a quarter of what he talks then the loss of a couple of 100K is hardly gona hurt him.

hell wait it out until everyone has forgotten about it, or will come up with a brilliant cover story.

 

[young-gun]

I did not know he had been away? Had you noticed I had been away as well? Maybe I am a sock puppet from tech/a's twisted and warped mind? So I have no credibility?

ohhh come on dowdy, credit where credits due! dont you know how successful TS is?

the problem with you and all your experience TS is that you have none for the upcoming market. should we be back in 2002 i would be more than happy to sit and listen to all your wisdom, but what you have experienced and learnt, will no longer be applicable should this crash actually play out.

what you have experience in is a perma-bull market, where every step you took made you money, and every step you took while leveraged made you alot more money. now im not saying that was easy, and you still had to be switched on and make smart moves to capitalise on purchases, but if you can please lay out either your exit strategy or how you plan to make money in a full blown crash i would very much like to hear it.

keep in mind selling all your RE before its too late might not be so easy, as there would be plenty on the market for me to choose from.

 

[tech/a]

tell me tech, have there been any other points in all of your experience that profits have been down 50%? not from your mistakes(presuming you made some) but from a slowing market?



hell wait it out until everyone has forgotten about it, or will come up with a brilliant cover story.

Yeh in 87 it was more.
I really think that was worse.
Interest was 18% and my penalty interest was another 6%.

It was just a hopeless situation,
Business was just terrible I had no hope of paying interest.
No hope of selling at Any price.

Banks just sold at stupid figures.
Talk about riches to rags!

Imagine 18% interest today!
Now in this market.
Carnage.

 

[wayneL]

Imagine 18% interest today!
Now in this market.
Carnage.

What does that say about current values?

Can only be supported by low interest rates?

 

[Dowdy]

ohhh come on dowdy, credit where credits due! dont you know how successful TS is?

Don't worry. Tech is one of the few members I respect and admire - not in a creepy, poster on the wall, way though....

Imagine 18% interest today!
Now in this market.
Carnage.

If there was no manipulation with the money supply and bond market then Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and maybe even USA would be seeing those rates too.


Question: What's everyone's thought on the Industrial market? I believe the RE and Commercial market are heading downwards but not too sure on Industrial property