The future of Australian property prices

[Ves]

I believe you are equating "not buying until it falls at least 40%" to "buy once it falls to 40%". Those are not the same.

I think you missed the word "to" in the sentence below. Hence my mis-interpretation.

Only if prices don't drop at least 40% real from peak.

 

[trainspotter]

you have the self proclaimed property elite talking about how much money they have made in RE in the past 20 years and you expect kincella not to announce(for perhaps the 5th time) her amazing RE accomplishments? please.

You misrepresented my post. "Misaproportioned" meaning that kincella has sold themselves short on the investment by Mum and Dad. ie the 5 million return on the property seemed a bit small for mine (if we are talking about the Gold Coast for instance)

My old man owned half of Caboolture when it was a cow paddock for instance. I think he paid 6000 pounds for 1000 acres or something equally stoopid. Sold it as he could not afford the rates !! LOL

 

[trainspotter]

both sides of the coin? exactly where do you see RE heading? i hope not to new heights...

*GOSH* you are being pugnacious tonight young-gun !! I have enucleated my position VERY STRONGLY and in about 2000 posts in this thread alone as to where I think it is going. DYOR.

 

[trainspotter]

Nice counter-arguments....not! Complete lack of substance from you two indicating a lack of knowledge of the subject matter.

I expect nothing more..

LOL Mr engineer .... go and read all about the direction of property from my point of view. I have been banging on in here for 3 years and got tired of doomsayers like yourself who hasn't a clue as you do not have any real experience. It's all in your head.

There are those that talk and then there are those that take action.

I know which one you are. Your superior knowledge of this subject matter at hand has me quaking in my boots ........ NOT !!

 

[Starcraftmazter]

I have been banging on in here for 3 years and got tired of doomsayers like yourself who hasn't a clue as you do not have any real experience. It's all in your head.

What experience do you have in situations where the biggest credit bubble in history worldwide suddenly goes bust? Please list them for me. Go right on ahead.

 

[young-gun]

You misrepresented my post. "Misaproportioned" meaning that kincella has sold themselves short on the investment by Mum and Dad. ie the 5 million return on the property seemed a bit small for mine (if we are talking about the Gold Coast for instance)

My old man owned half of Caboolture when it was a cow paddock for instance. I think he paid 6000 pounds for 1000 acres or something equally stoopid. Sold it as he could not afford the rates !! LOL

apologies, i did misread, not with it at all tonight, im out

 

[Trembling Hand]

What experience do you have in situations where the biggest credit bubble in history worldwide suddenly goes bust? Please list them for me. Go right on ahead.

Errr..... the last 4 years.

 

[DB008]

What experience do you have in situations where the biggest credit bubble in history worldwide suddenly goes bust? Please list them for me. Go right on ahead.

And as l said earlier, it's going to be sooooooooo big, well, according to SCM, that we'll all be living in cardboard boxes. Just like the GFC doomsday, Y2K nutters were predicting......

So, SCM, what's going to happen after this "biggest credit bubble in history worldwide suddenly goes bust"???

What exactly is going to happen?
Are people going to stay indoors and eat SPAM for the rest of their lives?

 

[explod]

We'll all be living in cardboard boxes by 2020, wait until 2030 and we'll all be hobo's on the street...

(Good for SCM for his outlook, but l'm looking the other way. China still has an appetite for our resources, India hasn't even started...)

Well they are turning into cardboard boxes down here at Martha Cove.

Built from Bessa Bricks, rendered styrene foam and composition board for 2 million dollars each only about four years back now.

Today the beams are sagging, the water has got into some of the walls so they have bursting seams and the many empty blocks between them make it look like a moonscape.

Many unhappy owners cannot get a bid over half a million for them today.

I note the last four or five posts have come down to arguments with little to do with the topic.

Not happy Jan.

But did try to warn you bulls, with many posts commencing five years ago.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Errr..... the last 4 years.

The question was not for you.

And as l said earlier, it's going to be sooooooooo big, well, according to SCM, that we'll all be living in cardboard boxes.

First of all, I never said anything about carboard boxes. You are basically putting words in my mouth trying to be a smartarse. This only makes you look a fool. Either contribute to the thread or don't post in it. If you have any counter-arguments, I'd love to hear them, but so far you have nothing, so perhaps you ought to consider saying less until you have something of substance to say.

So, SCM, what's going to happen after this "biggest credit bubble in history worldwide suddenly goes bust"???

It already happened, you are seeing it now.

 

[DB008]

...and then...???

 

[Starcraftmazter]

...and then...???

House prices fall?

 

[DB008]

House prices fall?

So, let me understand this.....

Your prediction is; by 2020, a 40% reduction in house prices from where they currently are? (Your words, not mine)

You believe that it has already started (Your words, not mine).

So, for the next ~7.7, house prices will decrease....
(Now, my maths ain't the best, so please feel free to correct)

At the moment, lets say an average house in Sydney is 500k
500,000 * .40 = 200,000
500,000 - 200,000 = 300,000

200,000 / 7 = 28,571 <- Average amount RE prices have to decease, each year, from now, to get to that 300k figure you are predicting.

 

[Beej]

It's pretty much impossible to not make money in trading, I fail to see why everyone doesn't do it. It's not even hard. The real challenge is getting something like 1000% pa returns. Fortunately there is leverage

Wow! Ever heard of hubris? It's been the undoing of many-a-cocky undergrad engineering student such as yourself. I think you have some VERY expensive lessons in life ahead of you........

 

[trainspotter]

What experience do you have in situations where the biggest credit bubble in history worldwide suddenly goes bust? Please list them for me. Go right on ahead.

What TH said !! Just LOL you are a TROGLODYTE.

Commit suicide now and avoid the rush why dontcha. Walk to Kosciusko with Keen for Chrissake !!! OR BETTER YET ......... go and get some experience under your belt Mr "I am an engineer".

Last post for you as I am wasting my valuable time. :horse:

P.S. You never answered my question. WHAT EXPERIENCE DO YOU HAVE ???

 

[trainspotter]

Wow! Ever heard of hubris? It's been the undoing of many-a-cocky undergrad engineering student such as yourself. I think you have some VERY expensive lessons in life ahead of you........

I want him to post up some of his never losing trades Beej !! "Its not even hard" LOLOL

 

[lenny]

So, let me understand this.....

Your prediction is; by 2020, a 40% reduction in house prices from where they currently are? (Your words, not mine)

You believe that it has already started (Your words, not mine).

SCM

What exactly are you trying to achieve by spending multiple hours a day postings on a thread about Australian property when you have no intent of buying Australian property until 2020 if at all.

It looks like its consuming your life!

Whats the point?

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Your prediction is; by 2020, a 40% reduction in house prices from where they currently are? (Your words, not mine)

40% from peak, real. As I have stated at least 20 times now.

So, for the next ~7.7, house prices will decrease....
(Now, my maths ain't the best, so please feel free to correct)

It would be more correct to say that in 7.7 years time, they will be less than they are now, and less than at the 2010 peak by 40% real terms.

At the moment, lets say an average house in Sydney is 500k
500,000 * .40 = 200,000
500,000 - 200,000 = 300,000

200,000 / 7 = 28,571 <- Average amount RE prices have to decease, each year, from now, to get to that 300k figure you are predicting.

Right. But that's $300,000 in 2010's dollars, if the average was $500k in 2010. What the nominal figure in 2020 will be depends on the inflation between now and then. Since 2010 we have had some pretty high inflation which has definitely helped increase the falls.

Wow! Ever heard of hubris? It's been the undoing of many-a-cocky undergrad engineering student such as yourself. I think you have some VERY expensive lessons in life ahead of you........

Name three?

SCM

What exactly are you trying to achieve by spending multiple hours a day postings on a thread about Australian property when you have no intent of buying Australian property until 2020 if at all.

It looks like its consuming your life!

Whats the point?

Well you know, it's a thread on house prices, so I thought I'd lay out a clear and coherent argument for why house prices are going to fall long into the future. In the event that anyone looks to such a thread in trying to decide whether now is the right time to buy property, I was hoping it would deter them from doing so, and thus save their lives from debt slavery on a rapidly depreciating asset.

I am just fascinated by the mind of the Australian property bull. I don't think I've studied such amazing creatures ever in my life. Against all evidence and analysis to the contrary, against all odds they seem to think our property will do fine.

My aim has been to try and understand their thought process. How they work. But so far, they have mostly responded with insults and trolling - so I'm not sure if they have any reason behind their mindset, or if they are in fact just a little bit not right in the head.

You are right though, far too much time is wasted here - and it's the same tossers posting crap. I would be nice if other people could contribute to the discussion, but I guess there aren't too many smart chaps around here.

 

[DB008]

Don't re-quote me and nit-pick my post without providing numbers.

Your an engineer, much smarter than me in the field of maths.

Give me numbers, per year, from 2012 to 2020.

Do a spreadsheet if you have to, and go into detail.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I am just fascinated by the mind of the Australian property bull. I don't think I've studied such amazing creatures ever in my life. Against all evidence and analysis to the contrary, against all odds they seem to think our property will do fine.

You know what that very same statement can be applied to your stupid comment about how easily you can make money trading.

Against all evidence and analysis to the contrary, against all odds SCM seem to think his trading will do fine.

From comments about trading I've seen you display i think you would be better off losing 40% in RE.

Seriously!!

It's pretty much impossible to not make money in trading, I fail to see why everyone doesn't do it. It's not even hard. The real challenge is getting something like 1000% pa returns. Fortunately there is leverage

Spoken like a true novice.