The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

Quoting Return On Margin isn't entirely accurate though is it TS. Its how all the dodgy CFD/option operators etc say "how to make 5000% in a year". Simply leverage up $1000 at 500:1 with an FX provider and a positive one cent movement returns $5k. Where do i sign up...

Only need one deal a year to cover expenses prawn86

 

[Mr Z]

IF ONLY the world was filled with explods brother in laws !!

or hot blonds that say yes after you have had 16 beers, are legendary in your own mind and can barely speak.

Not my reality but never say never.

 

[trainspotter]

or hot blonds that say yes after you have had 16 beers, are legendary in your own mind and can barely speak.

Not my reality but never say never.

What ??? That has never happened to you Mr Z?

 

[sptrawler]

or hot blonds that say yes after you have had 16 beers, are legendary in your own mind and can barely speak.

Not my reality but never say never.

Exactly, after 16 beers they are all hot blondes. The only question is your performance.:

 

[Mr Z]

What ??? That has never happened to you Mr Z?

The thing is... I don't remember.

 

[Mr Z]

Exactly, after 16 beers they are all hot blondes.

Nope... your perception is that they are all hot blondes... reality however is waking up in a house that you paid too much for.

The only question is your performance.:

Hey I only wanted it for a year or so... after that some greater fool was gunna buy it! Whadda ya mean the music stopped? I gotta keep this up for how many years? Seeeeesh!?

 

[explod]

Nope... your perception is that they are all hot blondes... reality however is waking up in a house that you paid too much for.

And you cant' afford 16 beers.

Does it come down to the blonde or the house ?

err, you'd get kicked out of the house I spose anyway.

 

[Mr Z]

Does it come down to the blonde or the house ?

What planet do you live on? The blonde got the house and I got the payments, where was the OR choice ... or was it she got the mine and I got the shaft... I always get

Now where is that beer that I can't afford?

 

[trainspotter]

What planet do you live on? The blonde got the house and I got the payments, where was the OR choice ... or was it she got the mine and I got the shaft... I always get

Now where is that beer that I can't afford?

LOL ... welcome to my world brother !

 

[Temjin]

Latest quarterly RP Data.



full report here

http://www.scribd.com/doc/73715835/Quarterly-Review-NOV11-1

They trying to make it sounds it's not that bad, but the conclusion is still negative, at least not as negative as they want to portray to avoid killing more confidences.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Latest quarterly RP Data.



full report here

http://www.scribd.com/doc/73715835/Quarterly-Review-NOV11-1

They trying to make it sounds it's not that bad, but the conclusion is still negative, at least not as negative as they want to portray to avoid killing more confidences.

Thanks for that link Temjin. Good one.

Yeah, I agree they have managed to squeeze some positive juice out of pretty much EVERY negative. LOL. Most of it comes down to "should be better" "might pick up" "may improve" etc, etc. An awful lot of wishful thinking to assuage concerns in property sector, metinks.

Plenty of fat to chew over.

 

[explod]

Don't you just love the adds currently on TV and radio on advertising home loans.

"...its never been a better time to take out a home loan as its a buyers market"

As traders we are lucky that we understand the fundamental of "never try to catch a falling knife".

 

[So_Cynical]

Latest quarterly RP Data.



full report here

http://www.scribd.com/doc/73715835/Quarterly-Review-NOV11-1

They trying to make it sounds it's not that bad, but the conclusion is still negative, at least not as negative as they want to portray to avoid killing more confidences.

Some pretty telling stats there....long term volume in clear decline and long term values in clear decline...it looks like a market bubble burst except in illiquid slow motion.
~

 

[cutz]

Don't you just love the adds currently on TV and radio on advertising home loans.

"...its never been a better time to take out a home loan as its a buyers market"

Not according to "The Economist",

Caught this report http://www.theage.com.au/business/p...-overvalued-the-economist-20111125-1nyvv.html in today's "Age", it sent shivers up my spine.

Here in inner melbourne the auction scene is still looking pretty bleak, but it may just be due bad weather.

 

[young-gun]

Not according to "The Economist",

Caught this report http://www.theage.com.au/business/p...-overvalued-the-economist-20111125-1nyvv.html in today's "Age", it sent shivers up my spine.

Here in inner melbourne the auction scene is still looking pretty bleak, but it may just be due bad weather.

its ok, Dave doesnt think theres anything to worry about

‘‘We think there’s more to the stability of the housing sector ... than is suggested in the Economist’s analysis,’’ he said.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/p...e-economist-20111125-1nyvv.html#ixzz1enL9WUAZ

and yes explod, couldnt agree more. i have been trying to explain to those much older than myself NOT to be buying investment properties. of course no one takes me seriously, both of them have just bought rentals worth 400k+(within the last week).
their argument is "as long as we buy and hold for 20 years it'll be ok anyway" which might be the case, but draws into question job security, and not to mention the fact that if you wait 12 months u may pick up the same house for 100k+cheaper, multiplying returns over 20 years by a hell of alot.

they brushed it off. but then again maybe im wrong and the spruikers are right

 

[MACCA350]

Last weekends amended clearance rate is 51%

This weekends pre-amended clearance rate is 52%

Last weekends amended clearance rate is 50%

This weekends pre-amended clearance rate is 53%

Cheers

 

[sptrawler]

Last weekends amended clearance rate is 50%

This weekends pre-amended clearance rate is 53%

Cheers

Apparently it is not mandatory for real estate agents to report their clearance rates.
Therefore it stands to reason the only ones giving their stats are the ones that are actually selling some properties.
The ones that don't sell any, just don't ring in their stats.
So it goes without saying clearance rates are far worse than what is reported.

 

[Mr Z]

So it goes without saying clearance rates are far worse than what is reported.

Yes, that is my understanding. Clearance rates are unreliable numbers now things are turning south.

 

[satanoperca]

Yes, that is my understanding. Clearance rates are unreliable numbers now things are turning south.

But they clear show things are heading down down, prices are down and/or lack of demand.

If the clearance rate is 50% then I will assume it is actually less than 40%.

If the clearance rate is 70% then I will assume it is actually 65%

If the clearance rate is 85% then I will assume it is actually 85%.

Given the it is voluntary to provide the auction results would you if you where a realestate company and are not selling anything at auction. I wouldn't.

The easiest way to determine what is happening is to attend the auctions themselves and make up your own mind.

Cheers

 

[Mr Z]

Sure.... but any way you turn it, it is all "wet finger in the air" stuff and not really a stat that is worthy of note. Suffice to say it is looking worse than it did this time last year.