The future of Australian property prices

[Tysonboss1]

Do you think $4000 (on $20,800 gross yield) is a fair estimation for both maintenance expense and to improve the quality of the property in line with the rate of quality improvement in the median house?

the figures were a demonstaion of how rental yield acts the same as sales revenue and costs and allowances are deducted, I was simply demonstrating that

If you did have plans for future improvement you could allow extra by spending less of you rental check, in the same way a company pays less dividends if big expansion plans are coming in future years.

 

[satanoperca]

Just getting this thread back on track :

The future of Australian Property Prices : DOWN

The current trend : DOWN

What is going to change the trend?

FHBG again or IR's to be decreased.

Just keeping it real.

Oh, the reason why Robots no longer posts as he has no arguement left, prices are down.

Cheers

 

[satanoperca]

And further more, just have a look at the build up of inventory in area code 3030, over 400% increase in two years. That shortage should be kicking in soon, lol.

Just keeping it real.

Cheers

 

[greebly24]

Median Price YOY

Sydney $500,000 0.5%
Melbourne $475,000 -4.3%
Brisbane $420,000 -6.6%
Adelaide $380,000 -4.5%
Perth $455,000 -6.3%
Darwin $425,000 -3.3%
Canberra $490,000 1.9%
National $455,000 -2.9%
Hobart* $320,000 -4.4%

Melbourne median dropped by 4.3% to $475k.
Guess that means the median used to be $495k?
So buyers who waited 12 months saved themselves $20k?
Or saved themselves about $400 every week for a year?
Or saved $30k-$40k (including mortgage interest), simply by waiting one year?

Is is any wonder that buyers have become more cautious?

 

[Tysonboss1]

1, Melbourne median dropped by 4.3% to $475k.

2, So buyers who waited 12 months saved themselves $20k?
Or saved themselves about $400 every week for a year?

3, Or saved $30k-$40k (including mortgage interest), simply by waiting one year?

Is is any wonder that buyers have become more cautious?

So with a 4.3% drop, Melbourne property still out performed the ASX200 by a bit over 6%, I guess they will be happy with that.

And yes, buyers have become very cautious, take a look at the asx panic thread,... lol

Just stirring, I don't really care which way property prices go, it would offcourse be nice to see some decent falls though, I still don't think it will happen, But I have been wrong before.

 

[medicowallet]

So with a 4.3% drop, Melbourne property still out performed the ASX200 by a bit over 6%, I guess they will be happy with that.

And yes, buyers have become very cautious, take a look at the asx panic thread,... lol

Just stirring, I don't really care which way property prices go, it would offcourse be nice to see some decent falls though, I still don't think it will happen, But I have been wrong before.

Forgetting the effects of gearing again I see.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Forgetting the effects of gearing again I see.

Your right, I guess it's worth a mention.

If you had used 50% leverage you results would have been as follows,

Asx200- down 22% of your starting capital

Melbourne real-estate- down 8.6% of you starting capital.

 

[medicowallet]

Your right, I guess it's worth a mention.

If you had used 50% leverage you results would have been as follows,

Asx200- down 22% of your starting capital

Melbourne real-estate- down 8.6% of you starting capital.

3 things.

1. We all know houses are geared more often and higher than shares.

2. What about including the figures for august and until 7/9/11 in your realestate calculations... don't worry, the figures are coming, I see red.

3. Where is Robots?


Glorious time brothers,

housing market is very consistent at the moment, a trend is forming.

Finding times hard?
: Cut off the internet
: Take on another job
: Stop going to the movies
: Sell the car that used to take you to work
: Eat that toast that fell butter side down
: Make offers to tradies with low workloads
: Find a bulk billing GP
: Trade in that iphone for 2 tins of baked beans and some string
: Use your plasma tv as shelter for an extended family
: Sell your house and rent

Living the dream,

Sunshine and lollipops.

MW

Obiwan Kenobi:10000 MW:1

 

[satanoperca]

Your right, I guess it's worth a mention.

If you had used 50% leverage you results would have been as follows,

Asx200- down (22%) 12% of your starting capital

Melbourne real-estate- down 8.6% of you starting capital.

Think you may have embellished the figure a little to much.

Just keeping it real

 

[Tysonboss1]

Think you may have embellished the figure a little to much.

Just keeping it real

How so?

My rough calculations have the asx200 down 11% over the same time frame that melbourne property was reported as losing 4.6%.

If you were using 50%LVR on your asx200 investment, you would have turned your 11% loss into a 22% loss, Plus you were probably paying 3% higher interst than the Property investor.

 

[satanoperca]

So with a 4.3% drop, Melbourne property still out performed the ASX200 by a bit over 6%, I guess they will be happy with that.

And yes, buyers have become very cautious, take a look at the asx panic thread,... lol

You supplied the figures mate.

Cheers

 

[Tysonboss1]

You supplied the figures mate.

Cheers

I'm still struggling to see your point.

Melbourne was down 4.3%.
ASX 200 was down almost 11%.

The wording I used was "Melbourne property outperformed the asx200 by a bit over 6%"

I didn't say asx200 was down 6%, it was down by 11%

 

[maffu]

BUYING a home in Australia's most populous state has become "simply unachievable" for some, real estate experts have warned.

In a major blow to those looking to get on the property ladder, the NSW Government has scrapped stamp duty concessions for 80 per cent of first-home buyers.

From January 1 next year, newcomers to the property market will no longer be able to avoid having to pay transfer title charges on existing homes under $600,000.

Stamp duty exemptions will now be restricted to newly built and "off the plan" properties only.

The NSW Budget: Dissected and in detail

The housing industry reacted angrily to a hike in stamp duties.

Real Estate Institute of NSW president Wayne Stewart said: "Australia weathered the last global financial crisis because the property market was invigorated. Yet those lessons have been ignored today."

And he warned that a rush to beat the deadline would push up prices of existing homes.

"It is inevitable that, as first home buyers scramble to beat the January 1 deadline, we will see prices increase as demand exceeds supply," he said.

"Unfortunately for some, the dream of home ownership will now become simply unachievable."

Martin Real Estate managing director Jeremy Martin added: "Between now and January rivers of gold will flow but after the party there will be a hangover."

The vast majority of first home buys in NSW - 42,000 out of 50,000 - being made on existing homes.

NSW is now one of the few states not to have a stamp duty concession for first home buyers purchasing existing homes.

However, construction and property groups welcomed the change and said the concession simply pushed up house prices.

"This reform will make housing more affordable for first-home buyers by boosting the new housing supply," said Aaron Gadiel from the Urban Taskforce, a large developers' lobby.

"Newly built housing will now be more competitive relative to existing housing. It should have been that way all along."

He said the threshold for receiving the benefit, which tails off between $500,000 and $600,000, should be increased. "A first-home buyer with children looking to buy a three-bedroom apartment in Sydney will struggle to find one less than $600,000," he said.

The Property Council of Australia said tying stamp duty concessions to new housing supply was "a smart choice".

"Housing supply remains limp across NSW and gearing incentives to motivate the construction of new stock makes sense," executive director Glenn Byres said.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...le/story-e6frfmd0-1226131040137#ixzz1XDy5LdFt

Not a bad move, I agree with the new home buyer concession going to newly constructed homes.

There is an upcoming government tax summit, and I have seen some discussion about only allowing negative gearing of investment property to be allowed for new homes. That would be a massive change to the market, so I highly doubt it would happen. If it did, they would have grandfather provisions so that it doesn't impact on current investment properties I am sure.

 

[medicowallet]

Dear Robots,

I really miss your input.

Can you please let me know your professional opinion of what will happen the the realestate market in NSW with stamp duty changes.

Can you also please give me some advice on what is happening with clearance rates in the Melbourne auction market, as you are clearly and expert, during the last year alone you predicted 365 of the last 50 clearance rates over 65%. I think the only way is up for you on this front, next year I am predicting it will be 366.

I hope that your work schedule permits a prompt response,

Sunshine and ever diminishing bubbles

MW

 

[The Falcon]

Dear Robots,

I really miss your input.

Can you please let me know your professional opinion of what will happen the the realestate market in NSW with stamp duty changes.

Can you also please give me some advice on what is happening with clearance rates in the Melbourne auction market, as you are clearly and expert, during the last year alone you predicted 365 of the last 50 clearance rates over 65%. I think the only way is up for you on this front, next year I am predicting it will be 366.

I hope that your work schedule permits a prompt response,

Sunshine and ever diminishing bubbles

MW

Good to see you are the "better man" MW, and never stoop to Robots level :

 

[medicowallet]

Good to see you are the "better man" MW, and never stoop to Robots level :

Considering you cannot possibly know who robots is, then why does it matter? Or are you a new account of an old friend

PS How is gold going atm, I notice that there is some talk of it going to 2000.

MW

PS Where is Robots?

 

[explod]

Robots I gathered was one of the shining giants of the REIV.

Invited him down to Mount Martha once (as his Mum lives nearby) for a coffee but duty always called and he could never make it. We did speak on the phone for a short time but the line got a bit hot.

As an Associate Professor of something or other I would bet he would be doing some further research into something or other.

Do miss the input, it sort of gave me something to aim for/at, and he was tough.

Anyway, lollipops sunshine and bubbles; and keep that powder dry as property is going to be a good thing again one day.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Not a bad move, I agree with the new home buyer concession going to newly constructed homes.

There is an upcoming government tax summit, and I have seen some discussion about only allowing negative gearing of investment property to be allowed for new homes. That would be a massive change to the market, so I highly doubt it would happen. If it did, they would have grandfather provisions so that it doesn't impact on current investment properties I am sure.

I hope they don't have grandfather provisions - property investors who buy not new dwellings contribute nothing to society, in fact they make society poorer. Not only do they contribute to higher prices, via their bottomless bank suger daddies, they then turn around and ask the taxpayer to subsidise them for the privilege!

It should be all about encouraging new dwellings to be built so that's where all the benifits should be. And in the process drop prices considerably - housing as a retirement nest egg has worked for the baby boomers but what sort of society have they left us?

The NSW government has just lit the fuse for a boom and bust scenario - get in now before 1st Jan so prices should be supported but come next year prices will take a dive and, hopefully, there will be an incentive to build new dwellings. That's where real economic prosperity comes from.

 

[The Falcon]

Considering you cannot possibly know who robots is, then why does it matter?

Robots?

as you always have all the answers MW, please tell me why I could not possibly know.... I've been following this banter for a long time

 

[Tysonboss1]

Just because an investor is not purchasing a new rental property doesn't mean he is not contributing to society,

That's like saying saying only investors that by shares at ipo's as contributing,

Who would buy a new property if they were not confident there was a strong resale market, the fact is if I buy a property whether new or old and make it available for rent, I am providing a service.

The fhbg on the other hand is where you need to direct your frustration, the billions wasted there have created almost no new homes, but put massive upward pressure on prices, these funds should have gone to encouraging developers to build low to middle income dwellings.