The future of Australian property prices

[wayneL]

The vast majority don't leverage up that high with shares.

How many people do you know that have a 90% LVR on their share portfolio.

Not many, if any.

Cheers

There is also the opportunity to hedge, profit and accumulate around a base shareholding with options... without throwing extra cash at it.

 

[Tysonboss1]

The vast majority don't leverage up that high with shares.

How many people do you know that have a 90% LVR on their share portfolio.

Not many, if any.

Cheers

Take a look at the storm financel thread there are some examples, every now and then you here of people taking out equity loans of personal loans and using the funds to finance a margin loan.

But, seriously I don't know many people with 90% LVR on their homes either (not that they tell me anyway), I know alot of people start off with 90%LVR but the majority would be a decent way through they loan.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Cba Annual report says that their home loan book has an average LVR of 50%, and alot of those properties would not have been valued since the loan were given perhaps 20years ago. so the number is probably less than 50% in real terms.

 

[medicowallet]

But, seriously I don't know many people with 90% LVR on their homes either (not that they tell me anyway), I know alot of people start off with 90%LVR but the majority would be a decent way through they loan.

I don't know many either, but it is definitely in the realm for first home buyers.

I am certain that many of the people who were conned by the FHVB at at 50%, so they lost quite a bit over the past 12 months (7.something%) and there is likely more pain to come for them..

safe as houses .... yeah right.

 

[Dowdy]

Because I was refer to the correction " they" predict (50% drop) in contrast to the one I predict (10%max drop with some stagnation).

You do know, in real terms, the market has already lost 8%.

It's reported a 4% decline in housing prices PLUS inflation, at around 4%. So inflation has eaten their money away combined with the national housing decline......

I predicted a flat market this year with losses next but I was wrong. Oh well...

Think about it, an 8% loss and there's not even a panic, yet. Imaging how far prices will fall when there's a panic and 40% drop doesn't seem unrealistic anymore.

Unemployment rising, china slow down, mining slow down, recession, carbon tax, natural disaster, USA stock crash - it only need to take one of these things to happen to see a panic and one of them is guaranteed (carbon tax)

 

[Agentm]

at last.. someone can see through it all!!


good post dowdy

 

[satanoperca]

Just keeping it real, RPdata figures for June.

Nothing really to see, just property doing wheat many predicted it would do, drop.


Median Price YOY

Sydney $500,000 0.5%
Melbourne $475,000 -4.3%
Brisbane $420,000 -6.6%
Adelaide $380,000 -4.5%
Perth $455,000 -6.3%
Darwin $425,000 -3.3%
Canberra $490,000 1.9%
National $455,000 -2.9%
Hobart* $320,000 -4.4%


Cheers

 

[nulla nulla]

You do know, in real terms, the market has already lost 8%.

It's reported a 4% decline in housing prices PLUS inflation, at around 4%. So inflation has eaten their money away combined with the national housing decline......

I predicted a flat market this year with losses next but I was wrong. Oh well...

Think about it, an 8% loss and there's not even a panic, yet. Imaging how far prices will fall when there's a panic and 40% drop doesn't seem unrealistic anymore.

Unemployment rising, china slow down, mining slow down, recession, carbon tax, natural disaster, USA stock crash - it only need to take one of these things to happen to see a panic and one of them is guaranteed (carbon tax)

You forgot to add "And the pubs run out of beer".

 

[nulla nulla]

Just keeping it real, RPdata figures for June.

Nothing really to see, just property doing wheat many predicted it would do, drop.


Median Price YOY

Sydney $500,000 0.5%
Melbourne $475,000 -4.3%
Brisbane $420,000 -6.6%
Adelaide $380,000 -4.5%
Perth $455,000 -6.3%
Darwin $425,000 -3.3%
Canberra $490,000 1.9%
National $455,000 -2.9%
Hobart* $320,000 -4.4%


Cheers

Show me where you can buy a decent house on a good block in a good suburb in Sydney for $500k and I'll run a ruler over it (And not out in the sticks).

 

[medicowallet]

Show me where you can buy a decent house on a good block in a good suburb in Sydney for $500k and I'll run a ruler over it (And not out in the sticks).

Can't find any?

Be patient, they will come

 

[Tysonboss1]

Show me where you can buy a decent house on a good block in a good suburb in Sydney for $500k and I'll run a ruler over it (And not out in the sticks).

What your describing is not a median house,

To me you are describing a better than average house, but asking for it to be advertised at a less than average price.

 

[nulla nulla]

What your describing is not a median house,

To me you are describing a better than average house, but asking for it to be advertised at a less than average price.

Is his "median price" like the so called average wage?

 

[explod]

Is his "median price" like the so called average wage?

I think it means the average for that area and is calculated on the local demographics or mean standard for that area, so to speak.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Is his "median price" like the so called average wage?

Median and average are different.

And when someone says good, to me that means better than average.

For example the average person in Sydney, does not live in a house on a big block in a good suburb.

 

[Tysonboss1]

I think it means the average for that area and is calculated on the local demographics or mean standard for that area, so to speak.

Median is middle number.

Eg. 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5.

Median is 2

Average is 2.57

 

[mazzatelli]

Median is middle number.

Eg. 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5.

Median is 2

Average is 2.57

Median = Mean under a normal probability density
Both a measure of centre, one better than the other depending on the distribution

Semantic bs really

 

[medicowallet]

Median = Mean under a normal probability density
Both a measure of centre, one better than the other depending on the distribution

Semantic bs really

I agree it is all semantics

This however is not:

Will house prices fall 4% in August and 4% in september, or will they have fallen 8% by the end of september...

Quite different really.

Now, more importantly..

Where is ROBOTS???? Having a cup of water with Mr Burns???

Sunshine and lollipops,

Awaiting a clearance rate of 55% on 485 auctions tomorrow (even though inventories are up 40%)

Signing off

MW

 

[medicowallet]

Requires
Overtime
Because
Of
Thoughtless
Speculation

Sunny today, not many cars driving around. Perhaps they don't get to the end of my strees nowadays, so many houses to choose from before they get this far. Going cheap too. Might wait awhile.

Lollipops, Sunshine, even SMALLER bubbles,

MW

 

[medicowallet]

Awaiting a clearance rate of 55% on 485 auctions tomorrow (even though inventories are up 40%)

MW

"The clearance rate this weekend is 57 per cent"

"There was a total of 462 auctions reported of which 264 sold and 198 were passed in, 136 of those on a vendors bid"

462 is considerably less than 663 last year with around 35-40% more stock this year.

Where are the other auctions????

630 predicted next week.. I predict

515 reported 56% clearance.... any takers?

Bubbles coming out of somewhere at REIV

MW

P.S. Anyone know where ROBOTS is??? Haven't seen him around in a while.

 

[choofer]

"The clearance rate this weekend is 57 per cent"

"There was a total of 462 auctions reported of which 264 sold and 198 were passed in, 136 of those on a vendors bid"

462 is considerably less than 663 last year with around 35-40% more stock this year.

Where are the other auctions????

630 predicted next week.. I predict

515 reported 56% clearance.... any takers?

Bubbles coming out of somewhere at REIV

MW

P.S. Anyone know where ROBOTS is??? Haven't seen him around in a while.

Yes. Trying to rustle up enough money to use the internet kiosk at the local caravan park lol