Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Your trend is tremendous!

If it falls next week by a couple of percent, will you be a bear then?

*GROWL* yeppers. It was in response to the stooopid report as to how there have been 400 writs in 2 months for delinquent mortgages. (This has been the average in VIC for over 4 years now) Both items of so called news are frivolous and meaningless at best.

But but but interest rates are going to 18% and we are a massive Ponzi scheme they screamed. Banks are lending up to 15 years at 8.33% fixed. Like that is gonna happen eh?

http://www.commbank.com.au/personal/home-loans/fixed-rate/rates-fees/

But but but housing is gonna fall just like America and probably worse they belted out in tune. Guess again. March 2010 to March 2011 was a massive 0.2% drop.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0

But but but Auction Clearance Rates have dropped and Enzo is reporting/non reporting I dunno ... he is fudging the figures they squealed.

http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/rpdata-index/

The monthly RP Data – Rismark House Price Index was released this morning for May with the raw data showing a fall of 0.5% after last month’s fall of 0.1% was revised to -0.3%. In seasonal adjusted terms the fall in May was 0.3% after last months 0.3% was revised to a fall of 0.4%.

But but but banks are offering us all easy credit and I can get a gazillion dollar home loan on 100% borrowing and they will compound the LMI and I only earn $500 a week selling **** on ebay.

The RBA has just released its Financial Aggregates for May. It is more of the same with credit growth remaining subdued, with housing credit growing at the slowest rate in 35 years of current data and at a three month annualised pace of just 5.2%.

http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/credit-growth-remains-subdued/

Need I go on? :p:
 
*GROWL* yeppers. It was in response to the stooopid report as to how there have been 400 writs in 2 months for delinquent mortgages. (This has been the average in VIC for over 4 years now) Both items of so called news are frivolous and meaningless at best.

But but but interest rates are going to 18% and we are a massive Ponzi scheme they screamed. Banks are lending up to 15 years at 8.33% fixed. Like that is gonna happen eh?

http://www.commbank.com.au/personal/home-loans/fixed-rate/rates-fees/

But but but housing is gonna fall just like America and probably worse they belted out in tune. Guess again. March 2010 to March 2011 was a massive 0.2% drop.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0

But but but Auction Clearance Rates have dropped and Enzo is reporting/non reporting I dunno ... he is fudging the figures they squealed.

http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/rpdata-index/



But but but banks are offering us all easy credit and I can get a gazillion dollar home loan on 100% borrowing and they will compound the LMI and I only earn $500 a week selling **** on ebay.



http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/credit-growth-remains-subdued/

Need I go on? :p:

Sounds like the desperate excuses that stock brokers were peddling before the stock market did it's second and third run of tanking during GFC1.

Retail in this country is under enormous pressure, and, as borrowing for consumption and pumping into over-inflated housing bites, we could be in for some nasty surprises.

Do you not get a feeling of impending trouble over the next 6 months, with retail stores closing, and loss of confidence in government?
 
Sounds like the desperate excuses that stock brokers were peddling before the stock market did it's second and third run of tanking during GFC1.

Retail in this country is under enormous pressure, and, as borrowing for consumption and pumping into over-inflated housing bites, we could be in for some nasty surprises.

Do you not get a feeling of impending trouble over the next 6 months, with retail stores closing, and loss of confidence in government?

Not at all. It has been much worse than this previously and we somehow managed to get through. Jobs is the key. Have a look at what our employment rate is. Once this starts skyrocketing towards double digits then it will be time to get out of Dodge.
 
The RBA has just released its Financial Aggregates for May. It is more of the same with credit growth remaining subdued, with housing credit growing at the slowest rate in 35 years of current data and at a three month annualised pace of just 5.2%.

But but but is it any wonder since debt laden Australian households are maxed out...

041011_2142_ThisTimeHad38.png

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housing is gonna fall just like America and probably worse they belted out in tune. Guess again. March 2010 to March 2011 was a massive 0.2% drop.

You must be right, we have nothing in common with the US situation. But but but then again this graph must be wrong then...

US_v_Aus_HHDebt2GDP.png


But but but banks are offering us all easy credit and I can get a gazillion dollar home loan on 100% borrowing

But but but some institutions are offering 95-100% loans and easy to find them as well...

Here's just a few of many links for you...
http://www.rpi.com.au/
http://www.homeloanexperts.com.au/investment-loans/

"Investment guarantor loan: If your parents can guarantee your loan using their property as security. Then you can borrow 105% of the purchase price and pay no LMI. You can read more about this on our family guarantee page."
 
LOL FX Trader. So according to the graphs you have supplied that means that because Americans drive cars and we drive cars we are the same? WRONG ... they drive on the OTHER side of the road. The banks and the financial systems are totally different between OZ and USA. But you know this right? You have been there first hand and found out for yourself right? You do know that PPOR's in the states that the repayments are tax deductible and capital gains is applicable and 110% ratchet loans are the norm right? We don't have that here. (you knew this as well I am sure)

Bank dollar value loans have gone up but I notice you did not provide the intrinsic value of the real estate portfolio it represents? Can't have one without the other old bean.

But but but in 2008 your graph says we were spending 72% of our wages on a mortgage. Hardly likely as banks will not lend past 30% as a DSR and also takes into account uncommited income as well as a raft of other economic factors. But you knew this as well didn't you?

LOL 95% LVR loans have been around for over 20 years now. Look at the carnage they have caused in the market place. Oh BTW .... guarantor loans have been around for longer. You will find that they are extremely hard to get now as you have to toddle off to the solicitor who will recommend you NOT sign your life away in a guarantor element. But but but you know all of this because you deal with property all the time.

Which is probably why home lending is at it's lowest point in 35 years due to the tightening of credit by the banks. Many people still want to borrow to buy a house but not many banks are lending the money to do so. ;)
 
I hear there are some very very cheap houses on offer near Brissy, not the ones that were flooded, no they are supposed to be dirt cheap, its the ones not affected by the floods...apparently the insurance companies are now charging homeowners $5000 pa for house insurance, compared to $1000 before the floods...

Or you can go a bit further out, where new hope mining has stacks of coal, the size of the opera house, littered along the side of the roads, so everytime there is a breeze the locals get covered in coal dust....those same people would love to sell and move on, but no one wants to live there anymore...

and if you are in favour of the carbon tax, expect your energy bill to go thru the roof, whilst they fiddle around with wind farms, or some other obscure expensive method to make energy...
am hearing rubbish about turning off the shower, the tv and the lights, and reading a book, whilst cuddling your pet to keep warm, standing outside in the sun....and other ridiculous options,,,,an advertising program run by labor I believe....

has the world gone mad, or is it just the current political morons in charge in Australia..

will everyone opt to live in a cave instead, in this brave new world....

so interest rates are going down, not up, house prices have slowed, no overall drop of 50%+ in the main capital cities, people still enjoying living in their comfortable houses, twiddling their thumbs.....or spending on renovating the house, instead of moving around...
its only 4 years since the GFC hit......and none of the armegeddon type predictions have come to pass....
might be the faulty crystal balls, some have been peering into, to predict the future
the biggest problem for most people now, is the damage done by the greens labor team, and what they have in store for you.....
I expect to come back and visit in another 2-3 years, and still read the same theme...from the global house price crash group.....
I wonder if same people who sold out in 2000, expecting to buy back later for half the price, are still renting....and waiting
cheers
 
<snip>
"Investment guarantor loan: If your parents can guarantee your loan using their property as security. Then you can borrow 105% of the purchase price and pay no LMI. You can read more about this on our family guarantee page."

LOL. ".... read more about this on our family guarantee page".

They might have put it another way...

"Your parents are GUARANTEED to lose their property if you default on any payments."

Come in suckers-s-s-s.... :cool:
 
But but but in 2008 your graph says we were spending 72% of our wages on a mortgage. Hardly likely as banks will not lend past 30% as a DSR and also takes into account uncommited income as well as a raft of other economic factors. But you knew this as well didn't you?

But but but in 2007 this little alien-human hybrid did negotiate refinancing of an IP with repayments above 100% of gross income and no guarantor required. All of this was achieved via wonderful products called "no doc" loans (offered to me by no less than two Australian Banks - including one of the major 4).
Bearing in mind that mortgages are generally written up as "debts for life" (ie. 20+ years duration) I could readily accept the plausibility of the graph in question (even if the banks did resume more conservative lending policies as early as 2008).
In my case the resultant mortgage was not discharged until settlement on the sale of the property in December 2009. So I presume that I was a part of the statistics that contributed to that illuminating graph.

Not at all. It has been much worse than this previously and we somehow managed to get through. Jobs is the key. Have a look at what our employment rate is. Once this starts skyrocketing towards double digits then it will be time to get out of Dodge.

Do you know what the definition of "unemployment" is for the purpose of the calculations behind this widely publicised 5% statistic?

I read somewhere recently that :

"Australia adopts the standard international definition of unemployment: people are unemployed if they did not work for at least one (paid) hour in the previous week, were actively seeking work and were able to accept a job in the next week if it were available."

I also suspect that engagement in many of the obligatory training and mutual obligation programmes place the welfare recipient outside of this "unemployment" definition for the duration of their participation in said programmes.

Do your statistics have anything to say about the underemployed? (I have heard that these poor souls are now in the double digits, I'm probably a little of topic here, but perhaps you could confirm.)
 
But but but in 2007 this little alien-human hybrid did negotiate refinancing of an IP with repayments above 100% of gross income and no guarantor required. All of this was achieved via wonderful products called "no doc" loans (offered to me by no less than two Australian Banks - including one of the major 4).
Bearing in mind that mortgages are generally written up as "debts for life" (ie. 20+ years duration) I could readily accept the plausibility of the graph in question (even if the banks did resume more conservative lending policies as early as 2008).
In my case the resultant mortgage was not discharged until settlement on the sale of the property in December 2009. So I presume that I was a part of the statistics that contributed to that illuminating graph.

Well my little alien - human hybrid believer that God is a woman kind of person ......
YOU LIED ON YOUR APPLICATION FORM.
With a "No Doc" loan you have to advise that you have the earning capacity to repay the debt either by a personal guarantee by yourself or by a letter from your accountant evidencing same. So therefore you have committed an act of fraud against a banking institution. But maybe that is allowed on your planet? With a "No Doc" loan you must have 60% minimum equity in the property as well. The bank would also be performing a credit check on you to see the extent of your borrowings as well as taking an SP from you to obtain an opinion of your credit worthiness. :banghead: You know when you signed the application form, then you signed the Letter Of Offer, then you signed the Mortgage Documents you fraudulently obtained money. Tsk Tsk. I wonder what Woman God will have to say about this act of deception?

Unless you had rental income that you have not advised of in your post that was assisting in covering debt. Banks will allow 60% of rental income for serviceability equations. Plausible.

Do you know what the definition of "unemployment" is for the purpose of the calculations behind this widely publicised 5% statistic?

I read somewhere recently that :

"Australia adopts the standard international definition of unemployment: people are unemployed if they did not work for at least one (paid) hour in the previous week, were actively seeking work and were able to accept a job in the next week if it were available."

I also suspect that engagement in many of the obligatory training and mutual obligation programmes place the welfare recipient outside of this "unemployment" definition for the duration of their participation in said programmes.

Do your statistics have anything to say about the underemployed? (I have heard that these poor souls are now in the double digits, I'm probably a little of topic here, but perhaps you could confirm.)

DYOR. :topic
 
TH, I think that you will find that many Low Doc loans were granted based on fraudulent information provided by the applicant. I know of several people who were encouraged by mortgage brokers to lie to get the loan.
Even myself was encourage by a mortgage broker to stretch the truth in order to obtain a lot larger amount of debt than I felt comfortable with, so I did not proceed with that mortgage broker.
The question is how many loans have been provided on incorrect information?

Cheers
 
TH, I think that you will find that many Low Doc loans were granted based on fraudulent information provided by the applicant. I know of several people who were encouraged by mortgage brokers to lie to get the loan.
Even myself was encourage by a mortgage broker to stretch the truth in order to obtain a lot larger amount of debt than I felt comfortable with, so I did not proceed with that mortgage broker.
The question is how many loans have been provided on incorrect information?

Cheers

Hey satanoperca. Then the applicant is in need of the full force of the penalties provided by the banking system IMO. This is why they have terms and conditions as well as the UCCC. If the customer has lied on the application (income and statement of position as well as debts) as well as signed the Letter of Offer from the banks as well as authirised a mortgage document and knowingly lied to obtain credit fraudulently then I have no mercy for them.

Lo Doc Loans make up a very small portion of bank lending so exposure would be minimal due to the large equity required to be eligible to receive one in the first place.

How many loans have been provided on incorrect information? Well with what I have seen from the banks lending criteria they even want to know what colour your jocks are before, during and after the interview. They actually do check their paperwork now as the ATO has turned ALL the banks into spies for them. They must report all amounts of borrowings to the Guvmint. Great eh !

A mortgage broker asked you to stretch the truth to obtain a larger amount of debt? Surprise surprise. They get paid on the amount that you borrow. The more they sell the more they eat/obtain commission. Why would you bother using one? If your affairs are in order then go directly to the bank.
 
... The banks and the financial systems are totally different between OZ and USA. But you know this right? You have been there first hand and found out for yourself right? You do know that PPOR's in the states that the repayments are tax deductible and capital gains is applicable and 110% ratchet loans are the norm right? We don't have that here. (you knew this as well I am sure)

Yep, and since I lived in the U.S. for 35 years, have relatives there and still follow events closely there I bet I know far more about the U.S. housing and lending/banking situation than you do. But there are worrisome parallels that you and other property bulls casually dismiss on the basis that Australia is different, special, unique, immune etc. to any sharp corrections in the residential property market, afforadablity and debt levels mean nothing in Australia, just don't apply here (unlike everywhere else in the world, LOL).

While the lending practices here are not as predatory or corrupt as was the case in the U.S., the debt situation and bank funded upward spike in house prices have similarities...

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Bank dollar value loans have gone up but I notice you did not provide the intrinsic value of the real estate portfolio it represents? Can't have one without the other old bean.

Intrinsic value??? Property pricing is mostly a confidence game (but you knew that), only IP investors try and divine value (to them anyway) on the basis of rental return. Property valuers (best guess estimaters) use recent sale prices as a major factor in their valuation calculations. But as that Buffetoholic Tyson will tell you price can't be used to calculate value.

But but but in 2008 your graph says we were spending 72% of our wages on a mortgage. Hardly likely as banks will not lend past 30% as a DSR and also takes into account uncommited income as well as a raft of other economic factors. But you knew this as well didn't you?

Not paying close attention here are you TS. Keen's graph depicts mortgage payments as a percentage of average wages, not the individual lending critera used by banks for loan qualification.

Which is probably why home lending is at it's lowest point in 35 years due to the tightening of credit by the banks. Many people still want to borrow to buy a house but not many banks are lending the money to do so. ;)

Retail banks make money by lending it out and through fees. They answer to their shareholders and tight credit and reduced lending hurts bottom line profit. They have been instrumental in creating and fueling the property price ponzi bubble and they certainly don't want to prick it. A more likely explanation for slower lending is overstretched borrowers. The Savings rate in Australia is increasing as households continue to try and reduce debt, focus on essentials and curtail spending.
 
AHA ! Another disciple of Keen and his wondrous graphs. This is the same guy who reckoned that property prices were to drop by 40% and sold his home? The same guy who walked to Kosciusko? Dead set legend this guy. :banghead:

Property pricing is a confidence game? Since when? So the system that we have in place with the Valuers Generals Department, Land Titles Office, Lenders Mortgage Insurance, Bank practices, Australian Institite of Property Valuers is for nought?

Yes yes yes the graphs are similar. That is where the trends stop. We do not have the predatory practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac scalping heads with ratchet loans, graduated loan repaymemts and floating rate mortgages. We do not have anywhere near the amount of finance lending to developers that created whole suburbs without one buyer. We do it different here in Australia. The exposure is minimal. Yes yes yes there are some dodgy and isolated people in the industry selling house and land packages. Always has been.

Average income in Australia is $66,500. Average housing loan is $284,500. This equates to 4.27819 times income ratio. Average LVR is around 64% DYOR

I would love to know where Keen gets his hysterical info from, afterall he has predicted five of the last two gloabl financial crises :rolleyes:
 
Average income in Australia is $66,500. Average housing loan is $284,500. This equates to 4.27819 times income ratio. Average LVR is around 64% DYOR

you cannot do that so easily.

It fails to appreciate that average income of an Australian does not equal the average income of a person with a loan, nor does the average loan figure provided represent the average loan that is held by someone of the average income for the loan.

Therefore mortgage stress is going to be real. Try explaining your figures to people in retail jobs who have lost them, had hours cut drastically or are in fear of losing their job.
 
you cannot do that so easily.

It fails to appreciate that average income of an Australian does not equal the average income of a person with a loan, nor does the average loan figure provided represent the average loan that is held by someone of the average income for the loan.

Therefore mortgage stress is going to be real. Try explaining your figures to people in retail jobs who have lost them, had hours cut drastically or are in fear of losing their job.

But but but FX Trader started it with his "average incomes" graph from Steven Keen !

Sure there are going to be people on higher incomes as well MW :rolleyes:

Maybe their debt ratio is higher because they can afford it ;)

If you are on the "average" wage of $66,500 and you have no other commitments then you can boorow approximately $403,00 over a 30 year period at P&I. PLUS deposit.

We all cannot live in friggin McMansions on the canals MW. So therfore the "average" mortgage is about right then.

Ummmmmm what people have been sacked in retail MW? Last time I looked they were sacked for planking on the job. Sure thing retail is doing it tough but I do not see the headlines screaming that Myer and David Jones are sacking 300 workers?

You are too late MW ..... mortgage stress is real and is happening now. I must have said this about 20 times already. IN CERTAIN AREAS. Whether it be the demographic of the 95% LVR kiddies who have lost the second job cause she is pregnant or he has gone out and bought the flash new car to go with the McMansion and over extended themselves ....... or whether it be the ones who got sucked into a house and land package on the thinnest of margins in a crap area (think Ipswich now) and who cares. History repeating itself yet again. :eek:

Job security ..... surely you can remember when interst rates were at 17% and unemployment at 10% not that long ago and you are worried about the retailers doing it tough? C'mon ...... getting old has turned you into a cuddly bear stuck in a comfort zone.
 
But but but FX Trader started it with his "average incomes" graph from Steven Keen !

Sure there are going to be people on higher incomes as well MW :rolleyes:

Maybe their debt ratio is higher because they can afford it ;)

If you are on the "average" wage of $66,500 and you have no other commitments then you can boorow approximately $403,00 over a 30 year period at P&I. PLUS deposit.

We all cannot live in friggin McMansions on the canals MW. So therfore the "average" mortgage is about right then.

Ummmmmm what people have been sacked in retail MW? Last time I looked they were sacked for planking on the job. Sure thing retail is doing it tough but I do not see the headlines screaming that Myer and David Jones are sacking 300 workers?

You are too late MW ..... mortgage stress is real and is happening now. I must have said this about 20 times already. IN CERTAIN AREAS. Whether it be the demographic of the 95% LVR kiddies who have lost the second job cause she is pregnant or he has gone out and bought the flash new car to go with the McMansion and over extended themselves ....... or whether it be the ones who got sucked into a house and land package on the thinnest of margins in a crap area (think Ipswich now) and who cares. History repeating itself yet again. :eek:

Job security ..... surely you can remember when interst rates were at 17% and unemployment at 10% not that long ago and you are worried about the retailers doing it tough? C'mon ...... getting old has turned you into a cuddly bear stuck in a comfort zone.

Maybe you didn't read about the latest retail chain (run by DJ old boss) to close stores across australia, or book store closures, or know anyone who is now part time instead of full time. It has already happened.

DJ's is struggling, and job losses are no doubt following. etc etc etc

I could only hope that interest rates go to 17% and unemployment to 10%, but it would take far lower numbers than those to kill the property market, as we observed the weakness before the first home vendors boost.

You can use these medians as trends to compare periods. They just would lose their effectiveness in predicting debt servicability in the way you chose, for of course the average earner can pay off the average loan. But as I point out, this is not the true case (and I am not aware what that is anyway(nor do I particularly care for the muppets who have recently purchased and are now staring at great potential loss))
 
Well my little alien - human hybrid believer that God is a woman kind of person ......
YOU LIED ON YOUR APPLICATION FORM.
With a "No Doc" loan you have to advise that you have the earning capacity to repay the debt either by a personal guarantee by yourself or by a letter from your accountant evidencing same.

You know when you signed the application form, then you signed the Letter Of Offer, then you signed the Mortgage Documents you fraudulently obtained money. Tsk Tsk. I wonder what Woman God will have to say about this act of deception?.


The mortgage manager was apprised of all my assets, liabilities and income particulars from the very first interview. I did not make any written or verbal misrepresentations regarding my income, assets and liabilities throughout the loan application and settlement process and have strong objection to anyone implying, stating or inferring otherwise.

On the subject of God, whom do you think it was that first told me that "No Doc" loans were on offer by one of the major Australian Banks. SHE even told me how much they were going to lend me before I made my first enquiries! Before this revelation, I would simply never have believed that any Australian Bank would offer me finance when I was out of work and would not have even considered approaching them! (This could have been one of those self-fulfilling prophecies where acting on the advice of the prohecy actually manifests same! It was of course just a wee bit uncanny how the valuations tied in comfortably with the loan amount, but I am now growing accustomed to bizarre happenstances such as these.)


My recollection of the guarantee document in question is that it only required that the applicant declare that he/she was able to meet the repayment obligations pursuant to the mortgage loan. Although I did not specifically recall the term "earning capacity" appearing in said document, I am sure that this statement could reasonably be seen to apply to the anticipated future earnings of any able bodied human (or alien hybrid) whilst between jobs (as I was), especially given my frugal nature and the low repayment rate when compared to the unskilled award wage.
If an accountant can reasonably be expected to report on historical and projected future earnings, were they expecting something different from a personal guarantee in lieu of the accountant's letter?

Even with the financial erosion that arose from the increase in my financial liabilities, government legislation still rendered me ineligible for any allowances (based on the means testing of my assets). On this count alone I would argue that it wasn't just me declaring myself able to meet all financial obligations pursuant to the management of my affairs - Australian Government legislation had already decided this for me! (What right did I have to argue with the LAW ?)

My credit rating, has been, was, and still is, untarnished. Additionally, I've worked on a number of occasions for Corporations, both public and private, where security clearance from ASIO, State and Federal Police was a mandatory requirement. I have no criminal history whatsoever! (Not even a speeding ticket! I have occasionally encountered a police presence on the astral plane,but it always turned out ok because God simply arrived on the scene and asked the authorities to have me released - isn't SHE cool?). However, ASIO did sometimes have trouble granting me clearance! It seemed they were having difficulties when tracing my ancestry - hardly surprising given the circumstances!


Please remember that I honoured all financial obligations for the entire life (2.25 years) of this loan despite my severe lack of income (approx. $195 per week gross rent and some trivial dividend payments from the few remaining stock holdings in my share portfolio.) Please also remember that I had additional real estate assets at my disposal at the time of signing this document and could have rearranged my affairs to further accommodate my financial obligations if the need arose (i.e.reduce debt and/or increase liquid asset holdings).

I honoured my guarantee and met all repayments by the required date right up until the date that I sold said property (on my terms) for a sizable capital gain. This was nothing short of a transparent and productive business relationship for both the mortgagor and the mortgagee.

The mortgage manager had been duly informed of my financial circumstances and the mortgagee didn't lose any money, so why would they want to prosecute?

I know I can be abrasive and controversial when I target opinions/facts that are at variance to my personal experience of the universe. Please be assured that when I do so, it's usually my bizarre (alien?!) way of engaging someone that has shown qualities worthy of my admiration. I've really enjoyed reading your posts on this and many other threads. I like to think that I have some experience based insights to offer to the ASF community, but if ASFer's are getting annoyed by me, then perhaps it's time they all reported me to the moderators so that I can find out where I truly stand.

P.S. If anyone believes an individual to be guilty of a criminal act, then surely it would be more prudent for that person to report the matter to the relevant authorities rather than simply making abrasive accusations/allegations on a public forum.
(I invite the moderators to PM me for my personal particulars before reporting me to the authorities should they deem it appropriate to do so.) Until such time as this occurs, I will politely request that we refrain/desist from levelling criminal accusations at posters.
 
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