Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The future of Australian property prices

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stacks said:
Im not sure you understand what fixed interest is. The highest fixed interest rate for cash deposits is just over 6%

7, 8, 9, or 10% ?? Not available for fixed interest rate on cash deposits. Some managed/index funds may have achieved this in the past but that is no guarantee for the future.
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Corporate bonds.
Healthscope issued notes at 11.25% coupon rate, for instance. No capital guarantee like a treasury bill though of course.
 
The writing may be on the wall for property investors, the media is all over it.

Has the smart money exited before the herd?

If there is a rout, who will then say they sold their holdings x months prior to it?

Who will have to take on extra shifts at work?

Sunshine is free, but are lollipops discretionary spending?

Interesting times ahead.

MW

Sunshine and.... well that may just have to do.
 
That site is good but a few yrs out of date which will not show how fast things are tanking.
 
LOL at the media.

Just an observation.

Pre market meltdown. .the media preached NOW was the best time to invest in the stock market......

Pre housing meltdown .....media preached NOW is the best time to invest in property...

stock market hit bottom..media screamed SELL SELL SELL

do you see a pattern here?

no?

i suppose following the herd is what all the cool kids do these days ....

Pick ya targets and leave the rest to the cool kids i reckon
 
There was a news article in late 2007 explaining that in Melbourne hundreds of property's in Toorak and other wealthy suburbs were put on the market but often not listed publiclly. The reason was because the houses were up for sales due to margin calls.

I think allot of the smart investors would have got out when they saw what was happening in the U.S in 2007/2008 and if they did stay in possibly got out when they saw property rise parabolicly 30% nationally in a year.
 
nunthewiser said:
LOL at the media.


do you see a pattern here?

no?

i
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No, but the smart investors run with the herd. They just turn before the herd does.

This time is different. America increasing its debt (and congress not wanting to move to where Obama wants to go) their stimulis is coming out of the market, China in its own troubles, reckless inefficient government here, interest rates going up this time, not down.

If america decreases its consumption and China try to decrease inflation, we are in for BAD times.

Time will tell.
Just preparing myself to lose some more money, oh well.
 
Plumber1 said:
Join up FREE with www.onthehouse.com.au and all prices are disclosed. The information all comes from the Titles Office. It shows history of sales for every house in Australia.
It is excellent.
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Sorry. I did not know that Victoria is not included.
Here on the beautiful, sunny Gold Coast (where all property prices have halved in the last 3 years), we cannot understand why anyone would live in a godforsaken, cold place like Victoria, :) so I have never attempted to look up any Victorian houses. :)
 
medicowallet said:
No, but the smart investors run with the herd. They just turn before the herd does.

This time is different. America increasing its debt (and congress not wanting to move to where Obama wants to go) their stimulis is coming out of the market, China in its own troubles, reckless inefficient government here, interest rates going up this time, not down.

If america decreases its consumption and China try to decrease inflation, we are in for BAD times.

Time will tell.
Just preparing myself to lose some more money, oh well.
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Thats all good mate...

seen 40% + falls on select properties in my area already......that not enough? 80% discounts ya reckon?

where is the bottom? from where i am standing i cant see 80% discounts in a hurry regardless of overseas conditions.

dont get me wrong YES there is some major falls expected BUT on prices that are still expecting peak prices...... do the ones that are listing currently at major discounts to peak expect another 40% off ?

or is no one gunna be happy regardless of the discounts available currently?

I bought my first house for 50k , second one in same street for 42k...now that street got a median of 400k from a top median at peak of 480k..should i wait till its 50k again?

please tell me when thats going to happen
 
nunthewiser said:
Thats all good mate...

seen 40% + falls on select properties in my area already......that not enough? 80% discounts ya reckon?

where is the bottom? from where i am standing i cant see 80% discounts in a hurry regardless of overseas conditions.

dont get me wrong YES there is some major falls expected BUT on prices that are still expecting peak prices...... do the ones that are listing currently at major discounts to peak expect another 40% off ?

or is no one gunna be happy regardless of the discounts available currently?

I bought my first house for 50k , second one in same street for 42k...now that street got a median of 400k from a top median at peak of 480k..should i wait till its 50k again?

please tell me when thats going to happen
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I like long term trends, don't you?

Because things tend to return to trend, slowly or quickly, who knows.

What I can tell you is that credit growth can't go on forever.

Of course there has been some steam off the "peak", but according to national figures, this is still minor, and a lot of pain could still be coming.

Well done with your purchases, of course they will not go back to pre-inflation dollars, but to a trend line, definitely at some time. I just hope for us, that the trend line comes later rather than sooner.

Hope that clears things.

MW

Plenty of sun (can't afford polish to make it shine)
 
nunthewiser said:
LOL at the media.

Just an observation.

Pre market meltdown. .the media preached NOW was the best time to invest in the stock market......

Pre housing meltdown .....media preached NOW is the best time to invest in property...

stock market hit bottom..media screamed SELL SELL SELL

do you see a pattern here?

no?

i suppose following the herd is what all the cool kids do these days ....

Pick ya targets and leave the rest to the cool kids i reckon
Click to expand...

Some of us could see the future of houseing some time ago. The media are only picking this up because Australia's tv economist Davis Kochie has jumped on the wagon.
 
andy0 said:
Some of us could see the future of houseing some time ago. The media are only picking this up because Australia's tv economist Davis Kochie has jumped on the wagon.
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Just as he did at the peak of the stock marketand explaining to the minions on WHY we should invest.

exactly the same at the peak of the housing boom explaining what a great investment property investment is.

hence my comments ..media screaming doom and gloom ....leading indicator to ignore the wanka,s and look for oneself

but hey....... what would i know ....i dont follow the "experts" , i tend to make my own path....

patience and avenues to act when the opportunities arise tend to not fit in most peoples investment criterias.

anyhoo....... i spose its easier not to look around when others are telling you theres nothing out there

Pick your targets wisely is all i got to say......buyers got the ball
 
ok before we go any further and i get called a property bull etc etc .....

this is NOT the case

Yes i believe that there are bargains out there i.e select propertys in my area for varying reasons are 40%+off there peak.....these probably make up 5% of the total listings i look at.
That leaves 95% thats listed that are dreaming and got a long way to fall for them to start being attractive to me.....

that 95% will be noticed when they fall ....not the 5% now that have already been hit 40odd%.....

will be a lot more to come off big% in my view but at the end of the day those that are sitting here expecting 80% discounts are the ones that wouldnt buy anything at anytime anyways.....

anyhoo.......good luck with it all, im going for a latte with Robots so i can check out some of these port melbourne swanky highrise pads that need to come of another 40% before i get excited
 
House prices to stagnate for 'years'
By Nicki Bourlioufas

19sep05

HOUSE prices will likely stagmnate for "many years," dragging on consumer spending and economic growth, according to analysts at ABN AMRO.

Rising petrol prices are also causing shock to consumers, which will weigh on the economy, the analysts said in a report on consumer spending.

"House prices are likely to stagnate across the country for many years, most likely drifting lower as wages and rents slowly catch up," said analysts Felicity Emmett and Kieran Davies at ABN AMRO.

"Record high petrol prices and interest-servicing costs have both contributed to the slowdown in household spending, with growth in real household income slowing sharply, but the weakness in house prices also seems to have played an important role."

"House prices remain wildly out of line with wages and incomes, so it seems likely that household wealth will be a noticeable drag on spending for a very long time," the analysts said.

Households finances are in a fragile state, with people spending more than they earn and drawing down on the value of their homes to support spending, the report said.

"The admittedly poorly-measured saving rate is still negative, with income slowing in tandem with spending over the past year or so," the analysts said.

"Similarly, households are still actively drawing down equity in their homes." Households draw down on equity in their properties if rises in debt exceed the increase in the value of housing.

"New South Wales householders have been the most enthusiastic extractors of household equity, consistently withdrawing equity at the highest rate," the analysts said.

"This reached a peak in late 2003 when (NSW) households were withdrawing the equivalent of 12.5 per cent of consumption spending.

"Surprisingly, with Sydney house prices falling for a more than a year, households in New South Wales are still withdrawing equity at a rapid rate, equivalent to around 6 per cent of consumption spending.

"Elsewhere, housing equity withdrawal continues in the smaller states, but at more modest rates than seen in New South Wales," the report said.

Sydney house prices are around one-third more expensive than the next most expensive city, Melbourne, the report said. Sydney prices are around 12 times average earnings, while Melbourne prices are only around 9 times average earnings.

Rising petrol prices are also causing shock to the economy, the analysts said.

"Almost all industrialised countries, with Australia no exception, are net oil importers of oil, so the rise in energy prices is a negative for growth."
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Well this is from the 2005 thread "property to stagnate for years"

I guess if you keep repeating the same thing for 6 years eventually it will happen or it might not.
 

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