The future of Australian property prices

[MACCA350]

March quarter, at least in Melb, is usually down so really there's nothing overly unusual about those figures, though it looks similar to the start of the 08 decline......
Link

Cheers

 

[robots]

Hello,

oh gidday, look this all a bit new to me so go easy please

the RBA left interest rates on hold today at 4.75% (howzat hey brothers) which was widely anticipated to occur.

Now my observations/research data is coming up with mixed signals, one offsets the other by the looks of it, and to be honest not sure what it all means for the future of property prices

oh well, another beautiful day

special shout out to againsthegrain

thankyou
professor robots

 

[nukz]

Hello,

oh gidday, look this all a bit new to me so go easy please

the RBA left interest rates on hold today at 4.75% (howzat hey brothers) which was widely anticipated to occur.

Now my observations/research data is coming up with mixed signals, one offsets the other by the looks of it, and to be honest not sure what it all means for the future of property prices

oh well, another beautiful day

special shout out to againsthegrain

thankyou
professor robots

Post up your data Robots for us all to see, im curious.

Grats on the interest rate hold, you can have your latte tonight.

 

[robots]

Hello,

Sorry Nukz, its the property of Melbourne University all my data so i guess the dean of the department would have to give permission to ASF

I self fund it for the university, goodwill, like how i help out ASF

yeah man still super size, and in coming months will be able to get 2 lattes with a drop heading our way

you reckon that Glenn Stevens any good?

thankyou
professor robots

 

[nukz]

Hello,

Sorry Nukz, its the property of Melbourne University all my data so i guess the dean of the department would have to give permission to ASF

I self fund it for the university, goodwill, like how i help out ASF

yeah man still super size, and in coming months will be able to get 2 lattes with a drop heading our way

you reckon that Glenn Stevens any good?

thankyou
professor robots

Good to hear, as far as Glenn Stevens goes we will have to see. He only left rates low long enough for there to be rampant property speculation by first home buyers but we will see if anything eventuates from that in the future.

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Good to hear, as far as Glenn Stevens goes we will have to see. He only left rates low long enough for there to be rampant property speculation by first home buyers but we will see if anything eventuates from that in the future.

Or it could be due to the surge in the AUD leading to decreased business profits for our exporters and othrr businesses who trade internationally...

With the proposed 20% reduction in stamp duty on the cards (for FHB) and potential increase in FHB grant theres no need to hold rates if you're solely talking about sparking 'rampant property speculation'.

Rates are not purely there to drive or temper speculative growth

 

[trainspotter]

Wasn't it Paul Keating who claimed this? He boasted that he controlled the Reserve Bank and that his hands firmly gripped the levers of the national economy.

Who is controlloing the Reserve Bank now? Afterall it is a public sector. When rates were too low it caused filthy, greedy, "snouts in the trough" property investors to plunder the market and the poor, defenceless little FHB with no friends to jump over the cliff and into the property pool. Rates are too high now causing mortgage stress, business to struggle and generalised foreclosures. Nobody is spending money in any quarter.

Whatever Glenn Stevens has got his hands on it sure aint the economy levers.

 

[Knobby22]

Victorian government cuts stamp duty for first home buyers, should add a few more bucks to the prices.

 

[maffu]

Alarms ring on rising mortgage arrears

Michael Bennet
From: The Australian
May 04, 2011 12:13PM

ANZ and Westpac's rise in mortgage arrears highlights an "alarming" problem lurking in the broader economy, say analysts.

As Westpac today reported a 7 per cent rise in its closely watched cash profit to $3.17billion, analysts at UBS said ANZ's sharp rise in arrears -- or overdue debt -- was an "ominous lead indicator for the domestic economy".

The warning came as Peter Esho, chief market analyst at Cityindex, said a similar rise in arrears in Westpac's results today "suggests mortgage stress is rising", particularly in recent months.

ANZ reported yesterday a sharp rise in arrears since September, with more than 30 days arrears rising 41 per cent to $5.8bn, while more than 90 days jumped 26 per cent to $2bn, with the majority related to its Australian mortgage business.


UBS analyst Jonathan Mott, who today cut ANZ to neutral, said the arrears are heavily related to first home owners across the country who piled into housing on the back of the government's incentive scheme post the global financial crisis.

"This sharp rise is an ominous lead indicator for the domestic economy," said Mott, adding the rise was the most surprising element within ANZ's first-half result.

Mott's concern lies in the fact that given the sharpest rise is in the 30-59 day and 60-89 day buckets, ANZ will experience material increases in past 90-day due loans during its second half.

He also pointed out while natural diasters played a part in the rise in arrears, the mortgage problems in Queensland begun before the floods and cyclones and the deterioration is also occurring in other states.

The Reserve Bank raised rates by 25 basis points seven times from October 2009 to November 2011, which along with larger raises from the banks and rising inflation on household essentials has put borrowers under pressure.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the RBA "did the right thing" leaving interest rates on hold yesterday at 4.75 per cent, but acknowledged the central bank could raise rates further around August.

All this spells weaker housing growth for the big banks, said Mott, who tipped housing credit to slow below 5 per cent.

"In a nutshell, the combination of household budget stress driven by increases in interest rates and household utility bills, the prospect of further interest rate increases, softness in house prices and weak clearance rates, is likely to weigh further on household credit formation in our view," he said.

"We find it remarkable that ANZ is the only bank explicitly forecasting a further slowdown in housing credit growth – and even then we believe the slowdown will be more pronounced."

On Westpac, Mr Esho said while its result "looks reasonable on face value", core cash earnings actually fell by around 3 per cent. He said "the real kicker" to the bottom line was the 47 per cent fall in impairment costs, but warned arrears rose as they are not yet considered impaired.

"Our point here is to monitor and watch the arrears trend, not just the fall in reported impairment charges," he said. Westpac's arrears grew from 0.47 per cent of total loans in September to 0.59 per cent for the period ending March.

By early afternoon, ANZ shares were almost 1 per cent lower at $23.59, while Westpac was down almost 2 per cent at $24.26. Commonwealth was also 1.1 per cent lower at $52.76, with NAB was down 1.55 per cent at $26.63.

Overall, Deutsche Bank said ANZ's result showed solid revenue trends, balance sheet growth and margins (ex Markets) holding up, but along with Credit Suisse noted the bank has few upcoming catalysts.

I found this interesting. If household owners are struggling to repay the mortgage, we may see some more sales hit the market.
People being unable to pay back unaffordable loans was one of the early indicators for he US house price crash as it was a precursor to massive supply, and no one buying it up.

 

[white_goodman]

I found this interesting. If household owners are struggling to repay the mortgage, we may see some more sales hit the market.
People being unable to pay back unaffordable loans was one of the early indicators for he US house price crash as it was a precursor to massive supply, and no one buying it up.

in before the "we dont have jingle mail" crowd saying its impossible to compare the two. If people cant afford a mortgage they cant afford it whether its recourse or non recourse...

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

in before the "we dont have jingle mail" crowd saying its impossible to compare the two. If people cant afford a mortgage they cant afford it whether its recourse or non recourse...

It can be compared in some ways but is still a different situation than the US - and not due to the recourse vs non-recourse debate.

Yes we may see more selling by those FHB in Australia but it's not the precurser to the same crash in the US. In the US you could walk away from your debt - that is the key difference and why they can't be directly compared.

What you had there was the first batch of sellers being the FHBs/overextended/job losers/non-recourse/etc who start selling. This drives down property prices. Then those that bought in the last few months suddenly have -10% equity from their purchase price. So why should they pay a debt that's higher than their asset purchase price when they can walk away? So they leave the keys on the table and walk out. Bank is forced to sell that property but with so many on the market the price keeps dropping - thus trigging more people to enter into negative equity. Cycle repeats.

Here in Australia if you're in negative equity, tough luck buddy! Still gotta pay back your debts you can't just walk out of the deal.

Of course that's an overly simplistic view of the situation, but at a high level more or less why arrears in Aus aren't the same as those in the US. However there's no denying that increasing arrears will increase supply - just wont lead to the crash so many are hoping for. Need other triggers for that

 

[MACCA350]

You can file for bankruptcy and walk away, sure not as simple as the US and far more repercussions to those filing so less likely to occur but still able to walk away.

Cheers

 

[satanoperca]

Here in Australia if you're in negative equity, tough luck buddy! Still gotta pay back your debts you can't just walk out of the deal.

Of course that's an overly simplistic view of the situation

You dont walk away, you just declare yourself bankrupt. If someone finds themselves in negative equity and cannot make mortgage repayments, the banks sells the property but is still out of property $50K or more, how many people will decide to repay that debt or just declare bankruptcy. I know of more than a few FHBers that have taken this approach when buying in the last few years, they just saw it as all part of the risk reward.

Cheers

 

[CamKawa]

It's been discussed before, you wont get out of most mortgages in Australia by declaring yourself bankrupt.

 

[nukz]

Hong Kong Home Sales Fall to 2-Year Low on Curbs, Rates

Hong Kong home sales fell to the lowest volume in more than two years in April as government curbs and rising mortgage rates sapped demand after a price surge since 2009.

The number of units that changed hands last month declined 37.6 percent from a year earlier to 7,635, according to a statement on the Land Registry website yesterday. That’s the lowest since March 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The value of transactions slid 26.8 percent from a year earlier to HK$39 billion ($5 billion), the biggest yearly drop since June 2010, according to the release.

Housing prices in the city, ranked the world’s most expensive place to buy a home by Savills Plc (SVS), have gained more than 55 percent in the past two years on record-low mortgage rates and an influx of buyers from China. The government in November increased property transaction taxes and pledged to boost land supply amid public protests that housing prices are becoming unaffordable and as the central bank warned about the risk of a “credit-fueled property bubble.”

Source - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...o-two-year-low-on-interest-rate-concerns.html

We are now seeing another domino in the asian region start to fall, mainland Chinese realestate has already started to fall as well as Thaiwan.

 

[MACCA350]

It's been discussed before, you wont get out of most mortgages in Australia by declaring yourself bankrupt.

How? Bankruptcy's supposed to clear all debts, don't see how banks can wiggle out of that one.

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

How? Bankruptcy's supposed to clear all debts, don't see how banks can wiggle out of that one.

Cheers

Yep, even tax liabilities are cleared by bankruptcy.

 

[CamKawa]

don't see how banks can wiggle out of that one.

Cheers

Keep looking.

 

[robots]

Hong Kong Home Sales Fall to 2-Year Low on Curbs, Rates

Hong Kong home sales fell to the lowest volume in more than two years in April as government curbs and rising mortgage rates sapped demand after a price surge since 2009.

The number of units that changed hands last month declined 37.6 percent from a year earlier to 7,635, according to a statement on the Land Registry website yesterday. That’s the lowest since March 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The value of transactions slid 26.8 percent from a year earlier to HK$39 billion ($5 billion), the biggest yearly drop since June 2010, according to the release.

Housing prices in the city, ranked the world’s most expensive place to buy a home by Savills Plc (SVS), have gained more than 55 percent in the past two years on record-low mortgage rates and an influx of buyers from China. The government in November increased property transaction taxes and pledged to boost land supply amid public protests that housing prices are becoming unaffordable and as the central bank warned about the risk of a “credit-fueled property bubble.”

Source - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...o-two-year-low-on-interest-rate-concerns.html

We are now seeing another domino in the asian region start to fall, mainland Chinese realestate has already started to fall as well as Thaiwan.

hello,

everyone okay with this post, setting a standard, isn't the thread on aussie property prices?

thankyou
professor robots

 

[nukz]

hello,

everyone okay with this post, setting a standard, isn't the thread on aussie property prices?

thankyou
professor robots

I've actually commented on the wider bubble being the asian region as a whole in quite a few previous posts. With our economy so intertwined with the Chinese economy i believe any slowdown in the Asian region can have a effect on housing here.