The future of Australian property prices

[tech/a]

Had the second valuation in 18 mths the other day on holdings.
actually surprised that they have risen 13.5% average in that time.
2 had risen 19.8%
The worst 8% (That was the commercial/industrial properties)
All rose.
With a good dose of inflation and rising rents (I'll be rising them) things look less gloomy.

 

[Dowdy]

I won't even begin to go on about what's wrong with this article...

Please enlighten me

 

[Bill M]

i know i know i know we gonna get a post in a minute from explod wanting to know about the future

No point knowing, he said in another thread that "The Armageddon" is coming, the ol explod's turned into a right doomster.

 

[explod]

hello,

no i never mentioned supply and demand issues, its the likes of yourself and others who make all that up

i merely reported whats going on with property and quite amazingly i used to get disciplined for it, oh well

we got hounded for being pro-property yet those who listened way back in 2005 are livin' large

i know i know i know we gonna get a post in a minute from explod wanting to know about the future and that he is up 2000% on his silver (which provides no economic input, but thats okay you not allowed to make $ on property remember)

but yeah find a post

thankyou
professor robots

Well said Botty

 

[Aussiejeff]

In Melbourne the eastern suburbs all the way to Nunawadding are completely dominated by Chinese now.

In 08/09 most auctions in Balwyn were being held in Mandarin... go figure.

But the last 12 months has been a totally different story you won't see many people at open for inspections these days and if you see Chinese they are not in this huge rush for property's like they were years ago.

There was a story in the news about 2 years ago about a Chinese guy who had purchased 200 property's in Melbourne's eastern suburbs.

Surely the 11% slump in Yuan purchasing power v AUD since March has had & will continue to have a significant dampening effect on Chinese investment in Oz - across the board, not just RE?

Since June last year it has plummeted almost 18%! That exchange situation is only going to get far worse for Oz in the short to medium term IMO.

 

[medicowallet]

hello,

no i never mentioned supply and demand issues, its the likes of yourself and others who make all that up

i merely reported whats going on with property and quite amazingly i used to get disciplined for it, oh well

we got hounded for being pro-property yet those who listened way back in 2005 are livin' large

i know i know i know we gonna get a post in a minute from explod wanting to know about the future and that he is up 2000% on his silver (which provides no economic input, but thats okay you not allowed to make $ on property remember)

but yeah find a post

thankyou
professor robots

Did he buy physical silver?

Or shares in a company that produces silver?

It is ok to invest in inflation protecting assets like silver, gold when appropriate.

But to dump all our resource money into houses, which like for like are grossly overvalued (and starting to come down), is just wrecking our future for when commodities cannot support us.


So Robots, your rose coloured glasses approach is not representative of the real world issues that overcaptalisation in clay and wood plays.

Then again, I expect none less.


How did Melbourne prices perform in the month of march?

What are your predictions for the june quarter?

Why will you never answer any questions?

How much money did you lose in the last quarter?

Are you needing to do extra shifts to make ends meet?

Why have your postings dried up?

Are you upset that I have taken over reporting of clearance?

 

[robots]

hello,

go back and read my posts, actually working less at the moment than in previous years MW

our site opens back up on monday from the easter break, we had a great bbq on thursday before easter and been relaxing since

is that okay with YOU?

thankyou
professor robots

 

[medicowallet]

hello,

go back and read my posts, actually working less at the moment than in previous years MW

our site opens back up on monday from the easter break, we had a great bbq on thursday before easter and been relaxing since

is that okay with YOU?

thankyou
professor robots

Sounds like a good holiday.

Go to any Auctions lately? Feeling lonely at them?

"The clearance rate from this weekends residential auctions is 58 per cent which is 4 per cent less than the year to date clearance rate of 62 per cent.

The number homes on the market has reduced since Easter and it is apparent from this weekends result that the number of active buyers has as well.

There was a total of 455 auctions reported this weekend of which 232 sold and 193 were passed in, 107 of those on a vendors bid.

This weekend last year saw a very high 872 auctions and a clearance rate of 80 per cent.

The REIV expects just over 600 auctions next weekend."

What do you make of a 58% clearance Professor?

It seems to be keeping low, and is now lower than 60%.

 

[robots]

hello,

i wouldnt have a clue what it means,

dont know either about the future of property prices and some how over the years that got extrapolated into me being a slumlord, specuvestor, negative gearer, perma bull property investor etc etc

even got death threats just for posting up the weekly auction clearance rates, parents were attacked on the forum

and i was head butted and put in the choker hold by a socialist dude at the "support gay marriages" rally back in Oct 2010

although i managed to break free and Suplex him over a seat in bourke st!

oh well life goes on

thankyou
professor robots

 

[medicowallet]

dont know either about the future of property prices and some how over the years that got extrapolated into me being a slumlord, specuvestor, negative gearer, perma bull property investor etc etc

even got death threats just for posting up the weekly auction clearance rates, parents were attacked on the forum

and i was head butted and put in the choker hold by a socialist dude at the "support gay marriages" rally back in Oct 2010

That is horrible mate.

I hope I don't get death threats for posting up auction results etc.

Stick around, and keep contributing.

MW

 

[drsmith]

and i was head butted and put in the choker hold by a socialist dude at the "support gay marriages" rally back in Oct 2010

Don't the Greens support gay marrriage ?

 

[So_Cynical]

AUSTRALIA'S much-debated property ''bubble'' may not have burst but recent data shows house prices are deflating, posting their worst quarterly slump in a decade.

Capital city prices were down 2.1 per cent nationally,

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/hous...20110429-1e0vz.html?from=smh_sb#ixzz1L0fht1Z8

I hope i don't get death threats for just posting up the results...

 

[Aussiejeff]

Sounds like a good holiday.

Go to any Auctions lately? Feeling lonely at them?

"The clearance rate from this weekends residential auctions is 58 per cent which is 4 per cent less than the year to date clearance rate of 62 per cent.

The number homes on the market has reduced since Easter and it is apparent from this weekends result that the number of active buyers has as well.

There was a total of 455 auctions reported this weekend of which 232 sold and 193 were passed in, 107 of those on a vendors bid.

This weekend last year saw a very high 872 auctions and a clearance rate of 80 per cent.

The REIV expects just over 600 auctions next weekend."

What do you make of a 58% clearance Professor?

It seems to be keeping low, and is now lower than 60%.

The comparative YoY numbers are quite telling.

Last year same weekend there were 698 buyers vs a mere 232 for this year - a massive slump of 67%! If that doesn't speak volumes for signifying a significant RE downturn this year, I don't know what does. Similar negative comparisons have been seen week in week out for months now.

IMO the REIV figures are likely to get far worse in the next couple of months, as many first home buyers in VIC will surely hold off signing contracts until July to get the new Stamp Duty rebate (which apparently will save them around $3,000 on a $400,000 home purchase up to around $6,000 on a median price home).

I won't be surprised to see 50% or less auction clearance rates between now and then....


aj

 

[BigAl]

hello,

i wouldnt have a clue what it means,

dont know either about the future of property prices and some how over the years that got extrapolated into me being a slumlord, specuvestor, negative gearer, perma bull property investor etc etc

even got death threats just for posting up the weekly auction clearance rates, parents were attacked on the forum

and i was head butted and put in the choker hold by a socialist dude at the "support gay marriages" rally back in Oct 2010

although i managed to break free and Suplex him over a seat in bourke st!

oh well life goes on

thankyou
professor robots

You know exactly what the reduction in Clearance Rates mean. Many years ago, you were the one posting the Rates and jumping up and down, shouting from the rooftops how much they reflected the boom times. The only reason you may have received death threats (as you claim) is because of the rubbish you post on this forums that contributes nothing to this forum. You have paid the mods well over the years to stay here.

 

[robots]

You know exactly what the reduction in Clearance Rates mean. Many years ago, you were the one posting the Rates and jumping up and down, shouting from the rooftops how much they reflected the boom times. The only reason you may have received death threats (as you claim) is because of the rubbish you post on this forums that contributes nothing to this forum. You have paid the mods well over the years to stay here.

Hello,

sure have BigAl, paid with traffic, hits and excitement for the forum and its members

no doubt about it, should of been the other way around, like $5/post? what you reckon?

and thats why they never got rid of me (would of been a bit tough just for posting up auction results), the people came and still do man

just amazing,

thankyou
professor robots

 

[nunthewiser]

currently in sunny exmouth wa.

half the town is for sale........especially the newer developments.

certainly changed over the years....

back to the bourbon and fishing.

 

[nukz]

Hello,

sure have BigAl, paid with traffic, hits and excitement for the forum and its members

no doubt about it, should of been the other way around, like $5/post? what you reckon?

and thats why they never got rid of me (would of been a bit tough just for posting up auction results), the people came and still do man

just amazing,

thankyou
professor robots

I don't really understand all your recent sympathy posts, i don't even understand why somebody would send you death threats over your posts. Most your posts don't contribute to any discussion.

You claim you have no idea what clearance rates mean but when clearance rates were high in 2008 you were posting daily about how they were so high and using that as a way to show the market was doing great, now your back-flipping again no surprise.

Fingers crossed tomorrow on that interest rate decision robots, you might have to go without those latte's if the RBA makes a move

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Perhaps if we say la la la with our fingers in our ears it will eventually go away.......

ESTABLISHED HOUSE PRICES Quarterly Changes Preliminary estimates show the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities decreased 1.7% in the March quarter 2011. The capital city indexes decreased in Melbourne (-2.5%), Sydney (-1.8%), Brisbane (-2.5%), Adelaide (-1.0%), Canberra (-0.4%) and Darwin (-1.0%), and increased in Perth (+0.5%) and Hobart (+0.4%).

ABS



Please explain?

 

[prawn_86]

Just a friendly reminder that this thread is about analysis, not discussing the weather, sunshine etc.

Please provide details and analysis with your posts (be they personal observations, or statistical data)

 

[trainspotter]

Capital city home prices fell again in March, but rents have surged over the past six months.

The latest RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index shows capital city purchase prices for houses and apartments declined an average 0.2 per cent seasonally adjusted during March.

Over the March quarter, capital city home prices slid 2.1 per cent, and are now down 0.6 per cent over the year to March.

House values outside the capitals did not fare much better, rising just 0.2 per cent last month, falling 1.8 per cent over the March quarter, and slipping 0.5 per cent over the past 12 months.

The weakest performing capital city housing market was flood-ravaged Brisbane, with prices down 4.6 per cent over the 3 months to March.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/29/3203346.htm

Well DERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR ......... after half of Brisbane was wiped out by a devastating flood what the hell do you think would happen ??? HUH????

And a measly .6% down nationally ??? WTF ??? So an average house in Australalialala Land is say $400,000 or thereabouts so the gross loss is $2400. Not even a decent weekend on the piss.