All this (plus negative gearing talk) looks to indicate that property will possibly be in for a rough ride one way or another. Glenn Stevens probably just wants to raise rates and needs a good excuse with our two speed economy, 'high house prices' yeah that will do.
The future of Australian property prices
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All this (plus negative gearing talk) looks to indicate that property will possibly be in for a rough ride one way or another. Glenn Stevens probably just wants to raise rates and needs a good excuse with our two speed economy, 'high house prices' yeah that will do.
wayneL
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"Very" affordable?
Not quite. Housing in other parts is certainly much cheaper, but wages are proportionally more stingy.
Price/earnings ratios are still many multiples above long term averages in these areas.
Yes, very affordable. Pre earthquake you could buy a very decent house in Chch for under $300k. On comparable wages to what we got in Aust we purchased a great 3 bedroom house between Sumner (exy beach suburb) and the city for under $200k.
Sometimes people confuse what they want and what they can reasonably afford, sure I would love a $2mil house but I cannot afford it. That does not mean housing isn't affordable, it means I need to be realistic.
wayneL
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Eh?
Wages are substantially lower in NZ than Oz, much to current consternation.
Hence large immigration flows to Oz.
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In so far as, along the chain of liquidity, there goes the US, there goes China, as we go?
What's in store for all of us when the pumping stops?
I don't believe this chart reflects the true state of US RE loans and is in fact much worse?
What's in store for all of us when the pumping stops?
I don't believe this chart reflects the true state of US RE loans and is in fact much worse?
nukz
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Front page of Theage.com.au today :
Home prices in biggest drop in 12 years
I liked this snippet:
"Basically there are more people putting their properties on the market than there are people buying them,” RP Data research director Tim Lawless told BusinessDay. “Until we start to see that effective supply being absorbed, I really don’t think we’ll see any upward price pressures.”
Interesting, since we have such a huge under-supply issue... as the REIV... RP-Data... Robots ect have told us
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/h...in-12-years-20110429-1dzkb.html#ixzz1Ksj51Oys
Home prices in biggest drop in 12 years
I liked this snippet:
"Basically there are more people putting their properties on the market than there are people buying them,” RP Data research director Tim Lawless told BusinessDay. “Until we start to see that effective supply being absorbed, I really don’t think we’ll see any upward price pressures.”
Interesting, since we have such a huge under-supply issue... as the REIV... RP-Data... Robots ect have told us
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/h...in-12-years-20110429-1dzkb.html#ixzz1Ksj51Oys
No, my X has worked for the same company in Aust/NZ/Aust for 10 years and the wage package is pretty much the same in both countries. Main differences are that in NZ it is common to get PHI but very low Super. In Aust there is no PHI but much better Super.
There is also very little in the way of Govt family assistance in NZ and the cost of living (not inc. housing) is higher so combine those factors with the better lifestyle in Aust and that is why Kiwis flock over the Tasman.
Take our personal experience out of the picture if I use other known experiences then you can buy a decent house in Chch for 6 years wages $300k house, $50k wages. A comparable house in Aust (Melb) would cost $750k so 10 years of wages at $75k.
Of course there is no stamp duty in NZ so that is a bonus.
wayneL
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LOL Apple and oranges
I don't think a $300k house in Chch compares with a $750k in Melb. LOL
I think I'll choose someone objective to debate with
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What exactly is wrong with that chart and how do you determine that it's being pumped?
I see steady average growth of 12-13% for the last 40 years and a tapering off highs from the peak at 2010 - which is what you'd expect given the high unemployement and property crash in the US following the GFC.
I fail to see the concern?
Front page of Theage.com.au today :
Home prices in biggest drop in 12 years
I liked this snippet:
"Basically there are more people putting their properties on the market than there are people buying them,” RP Data research director Tim Lawless told BusinessDay. “Until we start to see that effective supply being absorbed, I really don’t think we’ll see any upward price pressures.”
Interesting, since we have such a huge under-supply issue... as the REIV... RP-Data... Robots ect have told us
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/h...in-12-years-20110429-1dzkb.html#ixzz1Ksj51Oys
I won't even begin to go on about what's wrong with this article...
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LOL Apple and oranges
I don't think a $300k house in Chch compares with a $750k in Melb. LOL
I think I'll choose someone objective to debate with
He mentions a comparitive house in Melbourne costing $750k. So you'd assume he's talking about similar quality (size, location, etc). So they are in fact comparable. Just because something costs $300k in one place and $750k in another place doesn't mean that they are not of the same quality.
wayneL
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I would like to see that comparison.
$300k in Chch is below average, $750k in Melb is above average
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Could be the case. I've never been to Chch so can't comment
NewOrder I trust you will show us an example?
LOL Apple and oranges
I don't think a $300k house in Chch compares with a $750k in Melb. LOL
I think I'll choose someone objective to debate with
That suits me fine, I have houses of comparable quality and size, similar distance to CBD in both cities. In fact if the figures were looked at closer the Chch property would be even more affordable than the $300k eg given.
Seems very immature to discard someones IRL experience because it does not match your own views, but hey it does not impact my investments at all.
Are you sure you know as much as you think you do? I know both markets pretty well and have always made good money on RE.
Check out Trade Me which shows property by price range:
For Chch city the $200k - $400k range is by far the biggest.
$200k to $400k 1780 properties listed
$400k to $600k 752 listed
$600k to $800k 230 listed
$800k to $1mil 101 listed
$1m + 96 listed.
These ratios are no different to pre quake as I have been monitoring for some time.
wayneL
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NO,
Listings on TM are meaningless. What matters are sales.
The median house price in ChCh in Oct 2009 was $352k, ergo the bare facts are that a $300k house in Chch is below average, $750k in Melb is above average.
If you'd like to compare like with like with real numbers instead casting aspersions based on flimsy tenets, I'd be happy to debate you.
Listings on TM are meaningless. What matters are sales.
The median house price in ChCh in Oct 2009 was $352k, ergo the bare facts are that a $300k house in Chch is below average, $750k in Melb is above average.
If you'd like to compare like with like with real numbers instead casting aspersions based on flimsy tenets, I'd be happy to debate you.
wayneL
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You don't consider that one city has a population of 3-4,000,000 and the other 350,000 worthy of some sort of adjusting factor?
10 km in Melb is almost still inner city whereas it's the wop wops in Chch.
The following two maps are on the same scale LOL
Attachments
Front page of Theage.com.au today :
Home prices in biggest drop in 12 years
I liked this snippet:
"Basically there are more people putting their properties on the market than there are people buying them,” RP Data research director Tim Lawless told BusinessDay. “Until we start to see that effective supply being absorbed, I really don’t think we’ll see any upward price pressures.”
Interesting, since we have such a huge under-supply issue... as the REIV... RP-Data... Robots ect have told us
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/h...in-12-years-20110429-1dzkb.html#ixzz1Ksj51Oys
hello,
no i never mentioned supply and demand issues, its the likes of yourself and others who make all that up
i merely reported whats going on with property and quite amazingly i used to get disciplined for it, oh well
we got hounded for being pro-property yet those who listened way back in 2005 are livin' large
i know i know i know we gonna get a post in a minute from explod wanting to know about the future and that he is up 2000% on his silver (which provides no economic input, but thats okay you not allowed to make $ on property remember)
but yeah find a post
thankyou
professor robots
Yes sorry for my manner pp, it was unecessarily short. I do however stand by my comments and am slightly bemused to be pushed to justify my own situation.
I hold property in both cities and was merely commenting that housing is affordable in Chch yet like Aust, in NZ people seem to focus on Akl throw the rest of the country in the same basket which is not apples/apples to use your terminology.
Yes the geography is not comparable but the general locations are. As are the size, age, quality etc of the properties. The properties in Melb are within zone one and 12kms from the CBD, the property in Chch I am unsure in kms but it is 4 min drive to the CBD.
You said that people leave NZ to come to Aust as housing is unaffordable in NZ, this is not the case IME. Housing is much more affordable in NZ but the lifestyle and opportunities are better in Aust which is why many people do the TT jump.
Even at $350k median price for Chch (which to put it in perspective for others is the largest city in the Sth Isl, there are many much cheaper areas to live) it is extremely affordable. Keeping in mind that there is no stamp duty. Also our current interest rate in NZ is less than what we pay in Aust.
Personally I would not usually invest in NZ property but we lived there at a good time for property gains and made 70% profit in the first year there buying a fix and flick, that would be hard to repeat and was pure good luck. We are still talking about properties under $300k though, of which there are plenty.
I am not interested in arguing about my personal experience but merely pointing out that there is affordable housing in NZ which was my first comment in the thread, simple. I respect your right to your opinion on the general state of things.
I hold property in both cities and was merely commenting that housing is affordable in Chch yet like Aust, in NZ people seem to focus on Akl throw the rest of the country in the same basket which is not apples/apples to use your terminology.
Yes the geography is not comparable but the general locations are. As are the size, age, quality etc of the properties. The properties in Melb are within zone one and 12kms from the CBD, the property in Chch I am unsure in kms but it is 4 min drive to the CBD.
You said that people leave NZ to come to Aust as housing is unaffordable in NZ, this is not the case IME. Housing is much more affordable in NZ but the lifestyle and opportunities are better in Aust which is why many people do the TT jump.
Even at $350k median price for Chch (which to put it in perspective for others is the largest city in the Sth Isl, there are many much cheaper areas to live) it is extremely affordable. Keeping in mind that there is no stamp duty. Also our current interest rate in NZ is less than what we pay in Aust.
Personally I would not usually invest in NZ property but we lived there at a good time for property gains and made 70% profit in the first year there buying a fix and flick, that would be hard to repeat and was pure good luck. We are still talking about properties under $300k though, of which there are plenty.
I am not interested in arguing about my personal experience but merely pointing out that there is affordable housing in NZ which was my first comment in the thread, simple. I respect your right to your opinion on the general state of things.
wayneL
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Whoa there Sapphire! I said no such thing.
I said people go to Oz because the wages are higher, not that Oz housing is more affordable.
My point (which is quite at a tangent to the topic of this thread) is that NZ housing, on a price/earnings/opportunity basis, is no more affordable than Oz.
There are a lot of folks here on very poor wages compared to Oz.
BTW I like the lifestyle here better.
