The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

Dude I have seen a dying fish that flipflops less than you.

Firstly, I made no comment on how smart robots is, or even how smart I think he is.

Secondly, what is the point of being cryptic? Just spit it out. Too late? I have been talking about this **** for years now, with people like you accusing me of being a doomer or afraid, or just waiting for a crash so I can get in myself or any of the other crap you guys spit for even considering the possibility that all is not well in fairyland.

3 consectuvie MoM declines in home loans, with levels seen only in recent memory during the GFC and after FHOG was disbanded.

Good luck on your "stagnation" theory.

Waiting for you to once again run amok because you were "right" and everyone but especially me was "wrong".

Dude I have seen tiger sharks bite harder than you.

Firstly YOU were the one that dragged robots into it by the "sunshine and lollipops" remark. He has decided to leave the forum to it's own devices and YET you still don't get it do you?

Secondly there was nothing cryptic about my remark. YOU made the comment that some overleveraged garbage firm was going to go the big ugly in JUNE. Not me .... YOU. I made the comment that you are too late as it has started to happen months ago. (Adelaide Bank springs to mind with a capital buffer of 54 million and top heavy on lo-doc loans, St George holds the majority of their home loans in NSW) Is that specific enough for you? If you look back around a couple of hundred of posts ago you will find where I fluffed on about RAMS being a victim of it's own short term commercial paper and it is more than likely that others of the same ilk will follow.

You really are not that bright afterall because YOU have misinterpreted my posts to somehow thinking that it is all about YOU. WE the guys that spit out crap have consistently said that some areas will tank (and I even gave several areas as references that already have dropped 40%) and others have also given areas that they believe it is still possible to earn good solid returns.

But then again you are so forthright in your posts that it takes people (especially me) a hard time to take you seriously as your incessant vitriolic attacks on posters who YOU disagree with is getting tiresome.

Take a chill pill "dude"

 

[prawn_86]

Ok lets all cut back on the personal attacks please guys. I know its a hot toopic but all sides need to tone it down.

Please present your views without degrading others opinions.

Thanks

 

[trainspotter]

Ok lets all cut back on the personal attacks please guys. I know its a hot toopic but all sides need to tone it down.

Please present your views without degrading others opinions.

Thanks

Okey Dokey from this angle. I apologise to sinner for my off the cuff remarks that are unnecessary for this thread to move forward.

 

[SBH]

Actually it's the other way around!

Just like the US stock market, which is yielding <2% right now, yields will go up only if companies start increasing dividends en masse OR prices come down dramatically.

Yields are low, they will go up. I doubt they will go up in any scenario except prices coming down.

So there are still companies behind those stocks?! I didnt think it mattered

My argument is that yields cant be argued as a backstop to the vast majority of places in Australia. If SHTF you want to know that your 500k+ property cant fall by 30% or more, and really noone can guarantee that at the moment.

 

[nunthewiser]

To Whom it may concern,

Nunthewiser was the original user of the phrase "sunshine and lollipops" in the property threads.

Everyone else kind of adopted it and its variances as thier own.

I should of copyrighted the saying but i myself stole it in the first place.

Please mail a cheque to po box 1234 Geraldton for the sum of $59.95 for each time it has been used here by yourselves

your honesty would be appreciated

thank you

 

[nunthewiser]

Hey guys theres still bargains out there!!!

currently in Meekatharra, been prospecting and propping up the bar at the commercial hotel and noticed ya can still buy a house here for under 60k!

quit your job .......go on the dole and still own a castle.....

SUNSHINE AND LOLLIPOPS all round in this great country.

 

[trainspotter]

Cheques in the mail for both the catchphrase and the townhouse in Meekatharra

 

[sptrawler]

I suppose you have bought a couple of houses there nunthewiser: Some of us have been there and know the intrinsic value. Hail Julia Hail the fly in fly out. lets build a better Australia HaHaHa

 

[nunthewiser]

I suppose you have bought a couple of houses there nunthewiser: Some of us have been there and know the intrinsic value. Hail Julia Hail the fly in fly out. lets build a better Australia HaHaHa

duh

no offense intended

 

[trainspotter]

RP DATA INFO - First home buyers remain well and truly on the sidelines as well. During the month, first home buyers accounted for just 14.9% of all owner occupier purchasers, the lowest reading since June 2004 (14.2%). With first home buyers largely inactive in the market, those that are participating are being increasingly prudent with their borrowing. Over the past year, the average loan size for first home buyers has actually fallen by -1.6% to $277,000.

The Guvmint tries to keep the ball rolling - THE commonwealth will invest an extra $4 billion in mortgage securities to boost smaller players in the lending market.

"Today I announce that I have directed the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) to invest a further $4 billion in high-quality, AAA-rated Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) to help smaller lenders continue to offer competitive loans to families and small businesses," Treasurer Wayne Swan said.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/bre...es/story-e6frfkur-1226036067664#ixzz0kU9N9srK

Stagnation is the key - A survey of property market participants has found expectations of only a 0.6 per cent growth in home prices over the next 12 months.

The March survey of real estate agents, property developers, investors and owners by National Australia Bank shows most expect the strongest growth in Western Australia (up 1.1 per cent) and New South Wales and the ACT (up 0.9 per cent).

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/05/3182777.htm?section=business

Now we wait for rents to rise as the "investors" require a better RoR.

 

[white_goodman]

Now we wait for rents to rise as the "investors" require a better RoR.

or fall and get worse..

 

[sptrawler]

If small business doesn't pick up and retail spending doesn't increase the problem will be to get the rent, let alone increase it. How many people do B.H.P employ, not many in the scheme of things. The big problem is going to be in the small to medium business employment numbers.
Over here in the west things are pretty quite and overheads are going up, something has to give. There is nothing more moral destroying than watching your mortage going nowhere. Confidence is the next thing to go down the gurgler.

 

[tothemax6]

Its interesting that the Aus property prices thread has the most negative outlook on the economy as a whole...

 

[robots]

hello,

oh gidday brothers, great day as usual

i just read the forum, busy with new project here in Ballarat, and yeah word out to Nunthewiser he is the sunshine and lollipop king

just as boards/management get into a company and add value i am doing the same on my new project, spend a dollar get 3 back i reckon

thankyou
professor robots

 

[kincella]

Evening Robots,
Good to see you here again...
its been rather quiet around here lately....
me, am looking forward to those interest rate drops....the rba should be panicked by now....although with some of them earning a million for a salary...they may have no idea...

guessing the may budget wont help anyone much.....
if it keeps up like this , things will be really bad come the June figures...so maybe a repeat of the 2008 year, when they finally panicked and dropped rates by 3%...
the RBA went too hard last year, repeating 2007/08....
doubt if confidence will change anytime soon, but I think some will come about from recent changes in state elections....the feds are holding it all back....
anyway property is going along nicely...regardless that every man and his two dogs is talking about it...
noticed last month, some big figures came out, about all those people moving to the outer suburbs in vic...it was over 600,000 in 10 years...or 60,000 pa....
I just knew the smarties would not stay around in the expensive inner suburbs, when they can get a house at a reasonable price further out...

sent you a message last week...
Cheers

 

[medicowallet]

"Half way into the busiest pre-easter fortnight on record demand for homes at this weekends residential auctions is proving to be very consistent. There appears to be enough buyers in the market to meet the higher stock levels in the lead up to Easter.

The clearance rate this weekend is 62 per cent compared to 60 per cent last weekend. This weekend last year - post easter - had 502 auctions and a clearance rate of 84 per cent.

There was a total of 801 auctions reported today of which a 495 sold and 306 passed in, 212 of those on a vendors bid.

Next weekend the REIV expects 1000 auctions. Over Easter 55 auctions are expected and 535 the weekend after"


Keeping it real for the true believers.

Rainbows and bubbles.

 

[nunthewiser]

" Rainbows and bubbles.

LOL

cheap bugger trying to avoid royalties

Gday Robots nice to see ya

 

[medicowallet]

LOL

cheap bugger trying to avoid royalties

Gday Robots nice to see ya

It is good to see Robots.

However I have noticed something not posted on REIV site:

Robots post rate seems to correlate quite well with the trend in auction clearance rates.

I don't know what this means, just posting it out there for the true believers.

 

[kingcarmleo]

Looked at a report at work the other day, dwelling levels in perth are well down.

 

[AlexG1]

Interesting graph showing the number of retail property investors over time.

There's quite a few more available here http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/04/negative-gearing-losses-decline-in-2008-09/.

The following article at the same site is also of interest to this forum. That article quotes heavily from an SQM newlsetter and includes such stuff as this

"demand for housing is now weaker than back in the second half of 2008; a point where house prices fell by five per cent as an average for the eight capital cities around the country."

http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/04/sqm-research-on-the-housing-finance-data/

Make of it what you will.