AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
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Sdajii
Sdaji
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As long as we get a decent bite of the pie, I don't mind a capital raising. I was more than happy to take my full quota of the last one at 75c, and if I can top up again at $1.20 or whatever they set it at, and it helps to drill more wells more quickly, pushing my whole lot up to $2-3 more quickly, I'm all for it
After what happened with ADI I'm fairly sure they'll be keen to give us little guys the option of buying in, so I'm quietly confident it will serve us well.In the quarterly it says:
Aurora has identified potential acquisition opportunities within its area of interest in the Eagle Ford shale and is considering a number of small, value accretive acquisitions, focused upon increasing and consolidating acreage in proximity to its existing Sugarkane Field interests.
This could mean close to or it could actually mean in sugarkane: ie EKA, either way i grabbed a chunk of EKA, just in case. NOte i will trade out if EKA runs on speculation.
Aurora has identified potential acquisition opportunities within its area of interest in the Eagle Ford shale and is considering a number of small, value accretive acquisitions, focused upon increasing and consolidating acreage in proximity to its existing Sugarkane Field interests.
This could mean close to or it could actually mean in sugarkane: ie EKA, either way i grabbed a chunk of EKA, just in case. NOte i will trade out if EKA runs on speculation.
Sdajii
Sdaji
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Ah, that's why I've just seen EKA jump up! I didn't think of that, you might be right. Things are looking interesting!
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lol, Dont say that i had to trade out of them too!!
needs to jump back in asap!! hopefully aut stays sideways for a little bit while this cap raising is on... i doubt it however if the capital is going to be used for some of the things mentioned above.
needs to jump back in asap!! hopefully aut stays sideways for a little bit while this cap raising is on... i doubt it however if the capital is going to be used for some of the things mentioned above.
just remember weve been here done all this before, and what has happened since, weve more then doubled in price.
Nothing to worry about, managment have proven themselves to be extremely on the ball so far.
40 wells in 2011, is fantastic news, as it not only accellerates our growth and cash flows faster imo then the dilutional effect of the CR, but it also helps us secure our acerage, and most likely helps us and hilcorp stay in favour with the drill and frac crews on a full time basis operating for us with few if any delays.
Nothing to worry about, managment have proven themselves to be extremely on the ball so far.
40 wells in 2011, is fantastic news, as it not only accellerates our growth and cash flows faster imo then the dilutional effect of the CR, but it also helps us secure our acerage, and most likely helps us and hilcorp stay in favour with the drill and frac crews on a full time basis operating for us with few if any delays.
It's a real sign of company strength, when you start labeling a take-over as a bad thing haha!!!! (I'm aware of your thoughts regarding an AUT takeover though)
I agree though, I'm sure EKA is on alot of company's target list- yet obviously nobody has officially made an approach yet. I'd be surprised if EKA was still EKA by the mid/end of next year.
If it was EKA, I'd expect a share offer. Many common shareholders and some who'd wish to defer CGT. Why issue shares for cash at a discount and pay a takeover premium?
Also, AUT has stated that Longhorn (25% WI) is their focus, so why buy an additional 6.25% of S/L?
EKA doesn't make sense and nor does buying EME's 3% WI in S/L.
If the money is for the acceleration to the Longhorn campaign (looks like 3 rigs but they seem to have been talking about at least 2 for some time), why now?
They've got A$38million. What's that? 20 wells at 25%WI? But the revenues from the farm-out wells will be flowing in by the end of the year and the revenues from the post-farm-out wells will flow within a month of first flow to sales. Even if they drill 3 wells a month, they'll have revenues from the January wells flowing before April and revenues from January and February by May, and 9 post farm-out wells by June. That's in addition to the Turnbull x3 wells and Ipanema (it looks like a long lateral) - leaving the S/L wells to look after the ongoing development there.
Could be wrong. But could be something new.
Also, AUT has stated that Longhorn (25% WI) is their focus, so why buy an additional 6.25% of S/L?
EKA doesn't make sense and nor does buying EME's 3% WI in S/L.
If the money is for the acceleration to the Longhorn campaign (looks like 3 rigs but they seem to have been talking about at least 2 for some time), why now?
They've got A$38million. What's that? 20 wells at 25%WI? But the revenues from the farm-out wells will be flowing in by the end of the year and the revenues from the post-farm-out wells will flow within a month of first flow to sales. Even if they drill 3 wells a month, they'll have revenues from the January wells flowing before April and revenues from January and February by May, and 9 post farm-out wells by June. That's in addition to the Turnbull x3 wells and Ipanema (it looks like a long lateral) - leaving the S/L wells to look after the ongoing development there.
Could be wrong. But could be something new.
Obviously I've got no accurate Idea on what AUT plans to use the cash on, but in the last 8 months i've held them for, they've given me absolutely no reason for me to doubt them. So I definitely trust and expect that the cap raising is in the best interest of the company. I look forward to hearing the particular details.
esteon i think they made it pretty clear int he quarterly that they have an accruive acqusition planned. That make EME and EKA the prime targets, or simply surrounding acerage.
One things for sure EKA would be acruive as its a straight tuck in with huge synergies and at a good price. Its basically a per acre price which is rediculous given its derisking and development so far.
Definitely and acqusition at worst of surrounding acerage, at best, 51% of EKA or a controlling stake.
One things for sure EKA would be acruive as its a straight tuck in with huge synergies and at a good price. Its basically a per acre price which is rediculous given its derisking and development so far.
Definitely and acqusition at worst of surrounding acerage, at best, 51% of EKA or a controlling stake.
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Trading Halt? Whats this for condog?...........................///////...................
in the quarterly released yesterday they have some acruive acquisistions and they are drilling 40 wells in 2011 rather then 30 as previously planned. The original 30 well plan was going to require a CR or debt facility in H@ according to AUT previous guidance. But the Euroz guidance put out last week seems to indicate they would have made it through with 20M minimum cash balance.
We will know this arvo or tommorrow morning for sure, but several people who obviously have trade contacts are suggesting they have gone for approx $50M at 1.25 with approx 30m for acquisitions and 20m for drilling program advance. which is fine by me.
We may see a few weeks post CR consolidation, but when the supply side dries up off we go again is my bet.
All opinion so DYOR.
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Excuse my memory but did AUT go into a TH prior to last CP at 75c?.
If we could get a similar outcome where we get to top up into a great company at a discount and then the SP nearly doubles over the next 4 months again then bring it on.
Condog, are your targets affected by this CR?
Cheers.
If we could get a similar outcome where we get to top up into a great company at a discount and then the SP nearly doubles over the next 4 months again then bring it on.
Condog, are your targets affected by this CR?
Cheers.
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Maybe not such a bad move done by me then.. hopefully i can get back in around 1.25 when its consolidating..
good luck to all, this news is great its only going to mean more $$$ later on!
In short, Yes. Maybe the same will happen again. It should because the shareholders supported the SPP in the main even though there were undertones that the SP would end up below the issue price. With the history of the last capital raising in mind then there is no reason for the board to do other than offer us the same again.
not sure we will retrace to anything like 1.25, remmebr last time the issue price was 75c and we where trading in the 80-84c band while they unloaded with the smallest times dipping to 78c. They dont buy at 1.25 to sell at 1.25, they will be looking to either hold or make 5-20% in most instances.
Theres some suggestions by esteon and MIR elsewhere that the CR was extremely well taken up and that possible acqusition could be the surrounding pockets of land around the edges of Ipenema and Longhorn, those little rough squares and triangles of land that our leases stop others using.
If thats the case we will obviously have strong bargaining power as its useless to anyone else. Esteon is suggesting possible values as low as $3000 which would effectively double our acerage, we then would need to farmin an operator. so it would probably increas our net acerage by 50% or more. to around 15000net acres.
Its just a hypothesis, but my calcs on that effectively could give us 100+ net wells to AUT on a post farmin basis even if we paid $5000 per acre and got 30 acre well spacing. This with NVP of $15M per well and cost of say $7M max gives us $800M to be tucked into our bottom line over time of course.
Could be a very very smart move by Jon. Looking forward to the post CR strategy release. Perhaps far smarter then a tuckin of EKA.
If thats the case we will obviously have strong bargaining power as its useless to anyone else. Esteon is suggesting possible values as low as $3000 which would effectively double our acerage, we then would need to farmin an operator. so it would probably increas our net acerage by 50% or more. to around 15000net acres.
Its just a hypothesis, but my calcs on that effectively could give us 100+ net wells to AUT on a post farmin basis even if we paid $5000 per acre and got 30 acre well spacing. This with NVP of $15M per well and cost of say $7M max gives us $800M to be tucked into our bottom line over time of course.
Could be a very very smart move by Jon. Looking forward to the post CR strategy release. Perhaps far smarter then a tuckin of EKA.
