Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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do you recall the antics of the psychotic fish in times past estseon?

whenever a cap raising happened, which is an essential part of a small caps growth.. the bagging and criticism was melodramatic and on overdrive..

totally agree with you estseon.. essentially cap raisings are coming in many guises..

this one was totally predictable, like the last, but very much unforeseen by the many following the share and investing in it..

capital requirements and what type of capital, be it sourced institutionally or gained from the share base always has its pro's and cons..

look at adi's last one, the cap raising followed on with the sophisticated unloading to the hedge fund, which gave the weight of numbers to them being in control of the awe bid.. the hostile takeover ended the moment the turnover happened, game over..

unforeseen the future events were and if history was repeated, adi would have chosen a different path obviously in that last cap raising..

sometimes a cap raising can change the course of history, and create amazing wealth for the likes of AUT which took strategic decisions that were so well timed that you have to tip your hat to the management of aut..

estseon, imho the likes of nioka, whom i respect very much, can make a shed load more upside from his trading style than anyone can from being part of a cap raising, which as you have pointed out, drives the sp down (in most cases) and you can easily get access to similar prices in any case..

each investor has an entry and exit strategy, i follow my rules and strategies, style of investing, and associated risk factors the way i chose to, and abide by the rules of insider trading, and no one (except for one bitter twisted screwball) has ever had the audacity to constantly chide, criticise and berate me and stalk me constantly for a decision i had to make due to personal reasons and reasons associated with employment on my wife.. and that connection to aut..

"bad"

what a screwed up piece of garbage that is....

lol
 
Nice to see some green on the board this morning. Esteon, i think you make a good point about the type of investors they have been presenting too.
 
Thats a highly offensive and untrue post agent. and i cant believe it hasnt been removed.

On a nicer note AUt appears to be holding up nicely 1.345, definitely some more interested holders in yesterdays CR parties by the looks of it.
 
condog,

Don't think that any of that post is either untrue or exaggerated. Former ADI investors may recall.

It looks like a more normalised market was restored last night/today. Nothing much to be concluded from turnover. I can only see this capital raising in a positive light. If it was purely to accelerate development, that might be dilutive. But because the greater part of the cash is earmarked to acquire land that will not only add to the potential reserves but also enhance some of the acreage currently held, It is easy to see how it could be value enhancing.

When a company goes out to raise A$50m and is offered A$70m in a market such as at the present time, there must be confidence somewhere in what the Board is claiming. Boards normally seemed pleased to be able to report over-subscriptions.
 
estseon said:
When a company goes out to raise A$50m and is offered A$70m in a market such as at the present time, there must be confidence somewhere in what the Board is claiming. Boards normally seemed pleased to be able to report over-subscriptions.
Click to expand...

What that shows to me is the fact that they put the price too low and diluted more than was necessary. Another black mark, definitely not a credit to the board members.:mad:
 
48 hours after a decent size CR , you got to be happy with the price so far.
Also sellers, so far are holding tight, with more buyers then sellers already. Will it last?? , but its a good sign for now, that the new investors, possibly appreciate, not only the discount they got, but the quality of the stock.
1 pre open.png
 
I want my damn re-entry!! i would also like to top up from what i had before...

the market rejected that low pretty quickly and i think i may have missed the boat! on more than one share today..

aut's @ the bottom of the trend. will it trade sideways.... i hope so!!
 
Its been confirmed by directors that they actually are intending to acquire surrounding acerages. These acerages are generally to small or too affected by our leases to be usefull to other drillers . As an example someone might have a parcel of land adjoining ours that is 1-3 miles long by 1-3 miles wide. Which is uneconomic to place a latteral for anyone else other then us.

As a result these landowners are sitting ducks, about to be surrounded by wells, but getting no lease fees and no royalties. Most will be keen to join the action and as a result its a buyers market for AUT with these leases, as the landowners have little bargaining power.

Our Longhorn and Ipenema external boundaries are approx 36 miles by my very rough calcs. They may infact be longer due to boundaries being much more disjointed then the maps show. In which case i estimate approx 23000 gross acres may be up for graps in immediately adjoining locations. In reality this figure might vary by a lot + or - 50% or more, but thats my estimate using 640 acres per sq mile. And assuming 3 mile lots. It just imo gives us a guide of the value on offer.

I think there are some that may need to lease as low as $500 per acre and others that may be highly valuable, lets assume up to $5000.

acres 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
$1000 $10M $15M $20M $25M $30M
$3000 $30M $45M $60M $75M $90m

I think looking at the above we can see that its likely they are hoping to achieve somewhere around the $1000- $2000 average per acre with somewhere approx 20,000 acres. If they can pull that off thats a massive coup.

Even if we then farmin to hilcopr and retain 40%NRI thats 8000net acres, it almost doubles our reserves. 80% extra reserves. And as Euroz keep saying we are likely to sure up those 3P in the next 12 months. With estimates ranging from $600M to $1B for current reserves 3P. So add another 80% to that, its a pretty exciting prospect if they pull this off.

Please note the above includes calculations which may contain errors, estimates which are very rough and opinion which is often wrong. So Do your own research, your own calculations and seek advice.
 
AngusSmart said:
I want my damn re-entry!! i would also like to top up from what i had before...

the market rejected that low pretty quickly and i think i may have missed the boat! on more than one share today..

aut's @ the bottom of the trend. will it trade sideways.... i hope so!!
Click to expand...

Proves what I have been saying. Current holders should have been given a piece of the pie and the price was too low for the sophisticated highwaymen.

At least EKA is still a good buy with the interest focussing on AUT.
 
They couldnt give us access to this one as it was within 12 months of the last SPP.

Im sure John and the board have one in mind next time when we are eleigible.
 
condog said:
They couldnt give us access to this one as it was within 12 months of the last SPP.

Im sure John and the board have one in mind next time when we are eleigible.
Click to expand...

Sure they couldn't do it as an SPP immediately. They have to get permission to make the full issue anyway. They could then make the second portion available to shareholders. They didn't need all the cash immediately. My tip is that the directors that made the decision couldn't afford to take it up themselves so the didn't give a stuff about the rest of us. There are no excuses, it stinks. :mad:
 
I've changed my mind after taking everything into account. The option to enhance our position and they took it in the best way possible. A SPP was not an option, regardless of them wanting it or not, but they probably had in mind that people like you and me would have the opportunity to top up below $1.30 if we wished (and I for one did so). We couldn't formally take part, but we were able to effectively and more simply and conveniently get the same effect for our portfolios anyway, and even if we don't top up it looks like we're going to see our existing shares worth more than they would have been within a short time anyway. If the board had sat on their hands and done none of this we would have reason to be angry about a lack of competence and aggression.

How would you suppose they could have done a better job?

Also, the larger we are and the sooner, the more unlikely that we'll get bought out (though I'd say that's already of low concern at this stage... hopefully)
 
I can see both sides, but the proof will be in the pudding in coming weeks. If they manage to secure plenty of acerage at low prices and massively imporve our acres/reserves in the process, im sure all will be forgiven. If they yake 8 months to spend the money, it might be questionable why they needed it all now via CR.
Like last time lets just wait see, a 100% increase in sp generally helps a lot of forgiveness, for strategic concerns.
 
2 new wells approved on TRCC - kennedy 2h and some other wierd name look at image.
1anew wells.png
Nice to see them continually adding value.
 
regarding the rmedial work on Kowalik, there doesn't seem to be any indication in the available announcements regarding how much of the frac work was actually completed, my understanding is that 14 stages were completed and that they were going to make repairs then flow the well ta sales. Does annyone have have any info re.

Question : ...how many frac stages were originally planned?
....are the outstanding stages (if any) going to be completed ?
.....is the flowing of the well going to be done in stages
(similar to the Turnbull's) ?
.....when is production / flow sceduled to occur ?

info, guesse, or predictions welcome :))
 
According to esteon from Annual report. Points of interest well worth a look.

Page 3 - reserves potential CONSIDERABLY higher
Page 9 - current drilling plan (to mid 2012) comfortably secures all of the leases and these wells are expected to produce for 20 years.
Page 10 - NSAI valuation methodology - automatic re-categorisation of reserves as drilling proceeds.
Page 10 - 6 monthly certification of reserves.
Page 16 - seen it before - 3p reserves over $3/share before infilling.
Click to expand...

Also note the restricted chokes appear to be working, in particulat T#1 which did not decline from 30 -60 day flows.

Add to that the acerage acquisitions about to transpire and we should be seeing some nice growth.
 
martyfar

23 stages were originally planned for the 6,500ft lateral. They start at the bottom (end of lateral).

Don't think that they can do anything until they have repaired the casing.

I thought that multi-phase fraccing was the order of the day since Turnbull - can't see any difference between Longhorn and S/L in that respect. The release of 5th August merely said that it would be stimulated in the same way as all other AUT wells. The release of 17 Aug reported that the 1st phase of Turnbull had be flowing for 7 days. The release of 23 September reported that the frac of Kowalik was 'presently underway' (sic). So it is possible, looking at the dates, that the new system was applied to Kowalik.

If so, as each phase of Turnbull was about 5 stages, it could be that they have flowed the first 10 stages or so already.

My crystal ball then fades a bit.

They might not be able to complete the fraccing of the upper part of the well - they might not be able to get past the damaged zone in the vertical with whatever they need to do the necessary. But, the well is of greater diameter there, so who can tell?

Obviously, production flows can't commence until they have repaired the casing and drilled out the temporary plugs used for fraccing.
 
estseon said:
martyfar

23 stages were originally planned for the 6,500ft lateral. They start at the bottom (end of lateral).

Don't think that they can do anything until they have repaired the casing.

I thought that multi-phase fraccing was the order of the day since Turnbull - can't see any difference between Longhorn and S/L in that respect. The release of 5th August merely said that it would be stimulated in the same way as all other AUT wells. The release of 17 Aug reported that the 1st phase of Turnbull had be flowing for 7 days. The release of 23 September reported that the frac of Kowalik was 'presently underway' (sic). So it is possible, looking at the dates, that the new system was applied to Kowalik.

If so, as each phase of Turnbull was about 5 stages, it could be that they have flowed the first 10 stages or so already.

My crystal ball then fades a bit.

They might not be able to complete the fraccing of the upper part of the well - they might not be able to get past the damaged zone in the vertical with whatever they need to do the necessary. But, the well is of greater diameter there, so who can tell?

Obviously, production flows can't commence until they have repaired the casing and drilled out the temporary plugs used for fraccing.
Click to expand...


Cheers Estseon thanks for that information, I hope they get things sorted out without any further problems ... it would be great ta see Kowalik up an runnin an pumpin a few greenbacks inta the company's balance sheets
 

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