AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[condog]

AUT are looking quite promising stasticly at the moment.
The last 3 months have shown a positive gain and seem to be under valued.
They have been consistently above the 68 day average and bollinger bands are indicating a change in trend, hopefully this will be an upward trend.
At the moment the sellers are controlling this one and it looks very promising.
I hold AUT
DYOR

I think theres plenty of holders who might be maxed out selling to take up the SPP at 8-11c cheaper then sp.

Its a bit of a punt as CGT is payable on the sale and a scale back might or might not get applied. Its tempting, but i think its holding the SP back till friday.

 

[nunthewiser]

Yep as indicated on my chart and analysis posted last night , the sellers are definately in control of this one at present.

Yet another bounce off the major resistance line and south she heads .

My chart post shows where i think the likely turning/bounce points are and on current and yesterdays action i am inclined to reiterate that my ST target will be met.

i could be wrong but at present it sure is following my analysis to plan (scroll back)

 

[AngusSmart]

Has anyone thought about the rise Aut got when the Adi offer was put thru from Awe?

once that offer is gone, you'd expect to see adi drop? would this play onto AUT also since the offer was somewhat responsible for the jump in price..

 

[Huitzii]

Yep as indicated on my chart and analysis posted last night , the sellers are definately in control of this one at present.

Yet another bounce off the major resistance line and south she heads .

My chart post shows where i think the likely turning/bounce points are and on current and yesterdays action i am inclined to reiterate that my ST target will be met.

i could be wrong but at present it sure is following my analysis to plan (scroll back)

Here is my chart and it indicates a possible bottom of .80 I don't think we will see a bottom of .75 but anything could happen.
UP UP UP

 

[estseon]

"...once that offer is gone, you'd expect to see adi drop? would this play onto AUT also since the offer was somewhat responsible for the jump in price.. "

Angus, we've had upgraded broker reports since and reported flow from Turnbull. The broker reports seem to be in line with the Target Statement made by ADI although it seems to be more difficult to compare Longhorn to Sugarloaf because of the 2x condensate ratio. Hartleys says that Turnbull will become categorised as an oil well - all that I can say is that the permit was categorised as a gas well - we'll have to see.

So, I don't think that before and after can be compared because there is more information on fundamentals in the market. There is a more aggressive drilling programme mentioned by Hartleys.

And the global economy has survived that bit longer. Confidence is fragile but things that could have gone bad did not (though they still could). Oil inventories in the US dropped a little - just a bit of a puddle compared to usage but a twitch in the right direction for us.

There is also to be a revised reserves valuation shortly.

I'm not looking at pre-ADI-bid prices. The two things that I'm looking at are global confidence (including the Euro and oil price futures) and operational results & projections. Things have changed very rapidly since the beginning of the year and are continuing to do so.

 

[estseon]

"...I think theres plenty of holders who might be maxed out selling to take up the SPP at 8-11c cheaper then sp..."

Condog

The general market was down a little and the close in the AUT price reflected a twitch upwards in the general market. Volume in AUT shares was less than 25 x option 6 take up in the SPP.

It points to 'background noise', in my view.

 

[nioka]

Has anyone thought about the rise Aut got when the Adi offer was put thru from Awe?

once that offer is gone, you'd expect to see adi drop? would this play onto AUT also since the offer was somewhat responsible for the jump in price..

It is my belief that the ADI /AWE business actually held AUT and EKA back. I believe that the news we have had regarding the well performance was more than enough to justify the current prices. I believe that the ADI offer held back the SP. I believe that the ADI SP would have touched 60c on the basis of recent results.

ADI holders were robbed and AUT holders held back. The difference is that we still hold AUT, have had a chance to invest further and will see the benefits as the field is developed further.

 

[Slipperz]

Morning folks!

Not doubt most will be as pleased as I am to see a nice uptrend on the dow on the back of some good earnings reports in the US overnight.

I thought I'd look for some resistance to see where we might be heading in the near future and a realisation struck me.

AUT is tracking the dow verrrry closely.

Anyhoo the dow has broken it's downtrend and next stop is resistance is 10600 and we might be game on for a bit more blue sky in the US.

Hopefully summer driving season will give the price of oil a kick up as well

 

[estseon]

Slipperz

Not at all surprised with that conclusion but thanks for the charts.

Oil is probably tracking equities quite closely as well.

The driver may be confidence (or lack of) in the economic recovery and the US is often seen as a significant cog in that machine.

Intuitively, the economic indicators in the US should flow all the way through.

Even if AUT made a step jump on good drilling/production news it might move with the US indicator waves like seaweed in the tide - it would just be at a higher figure.

Should see AUT in positive territory if the ASX follows the Dow.

Bloomberg:

Crude oil advanced to the highest level in more than two weeks in New York as U.S. equities jumped after Alcoa Inc.’s earnings topped analysts’ estimates.

Oil rose 2.9 percent amid speculation that the report by Alcoa, the first company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to issue second-quarter results, signaled broader economic growth. U.S. stocks gained for the sixth straight day. The International Energy Agency forecast oil demand will grow in 2011.

“We’re just tagging along with the equities market after Alcoa turned out better than expected,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The equity rally seems to be giving us some support.”

Crude for August delivery gained $2.20 to settle at $77.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level since June 28. Prices have risen 7.2 percent in the past week and 29 percent in the past year.

 

[Agentm]

Yes this is where I see the lower support level. I inadvertedly posted support level of $0.75 and $0.76 when I meant to post $0.75 then $0.68. After that I see the next level of support at $0.40.


Some shares are like hot air balloons. They go up on hot air, then when it cools they come down fairly quickly. If this runs out of supporting hot air it could very easily test $0.40 again.



Supply & Demand. Production and Sales. From what I have read, demand is falling and there is an oversupply developing. This leaves production and sales?
IMO that $0.40 support levels is has more likelihood of being tested than $2.00.

thanks for your comments

i am watching with interest how the aut share holds up myself

there are shares in the play like AZZ with plenty of hot air.. and they consistently fall below the broker reports price expectations.. azz is about .57 atm.. way below the very recent cap raising price in the .60's

there is less hot air in the aut share than others imho, but i agree that some of the hype on the oil wells in longhorn has been solely on the production side, and the commentary of how the oil wells will impact on aut in terms of costs is lacking in comment..

Morning folks!

Not doubt most will be as pleased as I am to see a nice uptrend on the dow on the back of some good earnings reports in the US overnight.

I thought I'd look for some resistance to see where we might be heading in the near future and a realisation struck me.

AUT is tracking the dow verrrry closely.

Anyhoo the dow has broken it's downtrend and next stop is resistance is 10600 and we might be game on for a bit more blue sky in the US.

Hopefully summer driving season will give the price of oil a kick up as well

hey slipperz

i watch the volumes there closely in the US.. been an amazing turnaround.. all on vapour as usual

i saw this comment from cameron hanover a few days back. and i think its great that he is thinking the same way i am on oil..



It was caution more than anything else. We would expect to see oil prices rally slightly in response to the quarterly earnings figure released by Alcoa, later tonight. Investors are eager to buy oil futures, apparently, or at least that is what we thought we saw last week. It did not take much to reignite interest in the so‐called “carry trade,” which has nothing to do with carrying costs and everything to do with the negligible cost of borrowing money (for some large players). It is the equivalent of the Latin word (in science) for “risk appetite.” The fundamentals are what they have been for a while, now. Stocks are plentiful and near multi‐decade highs (in the case of distillate). There is plenty of oil available right now, especially in terms of days of forward supply. If this were 10 years ago, oil prices would be trading at less than half what they are right now, possibly even a third of existing prices. Demand has been increasing recently, but we are comparing it to last year’s extraordinarily weak demand, in the heart of the recession.
Tomorrow, we should see traders start to look at this week’s inventory figures. All three major wire services are looking for substantial drawdowns in distillate, decent builds in distillate stocks and milder draws in gasoline stocks. We are actually looking for a build in gasoline stocks because we do not expect to see another week of strong withdrawals from primary storage so soon after July 4th.

 

[condog]

On a fundamentals perspective its hard to see any justification why AUT is over priced or likely to fall.

The Reliance deal valued Pioneer acerage at $25,000 per gross acre and $11400 per net acre.

Based on that valuation AUT is worth $279M. Today at 84c it has a market cap of $210M

And it doesnt take an einstien to see that AUT at present has what looks like the condensate sweet spot of the Eagleford. It has the two highest producing wells in the entire eagleford. Even its lower producing wells have excellent liquids ratios, making the economics of each well staggeringly better then dry gas.

It has 3 Brokers placing valuations on it. The most out of date issued several months ago is pattersons at 93c. The two issued this week by Hartleys and Euroz are $1.23 and $1.32

Oil and market sentiment has improved in the past week.

The eagle ford is absolutely red hot right now. KKR have just gone into a deal with Hilcrop to accellerate hilcrops eagleford activities. The last deal KKR did they sold out to Shell with over a billion dollars profit in just over 12 months.

AUT is now cashed up with significant funds in the bank and about to within around 8 -10 weeks be recieving very significant income from its wells.

Hartleys states with hilcorps ne advanced program AUT will likely need a modest debt facility in H2 2011.

Theres a planned roughly 15 more wells for 2010 with 37 planned for 2011 from the Hartleys report.

We are very close to having flow data on T2 and T3, if they are as good as T1, theres no reason why AUT wont power away from its current price.

In addition we should see on the back of the turnbull results a new reserves upgrade, which as Hartleys and Euroz say will likely casue a significant re-rating upwards. Hartleys suggest its likely to be in the ball park ofa 300% ish ugrade.

 

[nunthewiser]

Morning folks!



AUT is tracking the dow verrrry closely.

Hi,

Is there a reason that you ommited the last 2 days price action on your AUT chart ? ( tuesday ,monday)

Just wondering as these 2 days clearly show the sellers in control as does todays action so far also based on open and current price and course of sales so far.

Thanks in advance and i will try and post a more up to date chart for you later this evening when i am back on the home pc instead of this wonky laptop.

Not trying to be picky ........ Just keeping it real on a technical perspective.

 

[Slipperz]

Hi,

Is there a reason that you ommited the last 2 days price action on your AUT chart ? ( tuesday ,monday)

Just wondering as these 2 days clearly show the sellers in control as does todays action so far also based on open and current price and course of sales so far.

Thanks in advance and i will try and post a more up to date chart for you later this evening when i am back on the home pc instead of this wonky laptop.

Not trying to be picky ........ Just keeping it real on a technical perspective.

Well spotted.

The reason it was a cut and paste job from the weekends chart was due to the time of posting

 

[nunthewiser]

Well spotted.

The reason it was a cut and paste job from the weekends chart was due to the time of posting

Thanks and no worries

Perhaps it may be a good idea for me to continue commentry and analysis on this thread also for a while, an unbiased view tends to be a bit clearer at times.

 

[Slipperz]

Thanks and no worries

Perhaps it may be a good idea for me to continue commentry and analysis on this thread also for a while, an unbiased view tends to be a bit clearer at times.

Not holding any AUT yet nunthewiser?

Stick around here and we'll convert you for sure

This weeks action has been a bit disappointing imo. I thought AUT was ready for the next leg up but seems to have stalled.

Anyways I stopped out of CTP on Monday morning and reweighted into SSN so the week is going pretty well without any help from AUT. (The plan was to have about 4 times as much but the pioneer sandstone was not forthcoming)

Hopefully when SSN has a consolidation AUT will get into gear

 

[nunthewiser]

Not holding any AUT yet nunthewiser?

Stick around here and we'll convert you for sure

This weeks action has been a bit disappointing imo. I thought AUT was ready for the next leg up but seems to have stalled.

)

LOL i trade AUT on a regular basis.

Theres nothing to convert, i am NOT swayed by many of the overexhuberant comments placed here and ONLY trade AUT on a technical basis.

I pointed out already my thoughts on this latest action and thats twice now in THIS thread i have pointed out the Tops to the moment pretty much ... easy stock to read BECAUSE of the lower volumes traded compared to other midcap stocks out there.

Watching the action and can still find no reason to enter at this present time.

Will post when i do enter next tho but my trading of AUT is on a shorter time frame than you guys seem to be so my analysis may not help you but may help others that are looking at entering.
Hopefully might save someone a couple of bucks on there entry price from relaying an unbiased viewpoint rather than a holders view.

I am no technical guru and my views may not be correct and often i get it wrong...... just giving MY opinion on something i can see in front of me... like i said i could be wrong and happy to admit it.

Cheers.

 

[J&M]

Thanks Nun your views are most welcome

always good to get another point of view

I am a holder and have topped up with the share raising

 

[stefan_invester]

Hey Nun,
im a bit stuck, not sure if i should participate in the CR at 0.75,
or if i should wait it out and mabey the sp will fall to below 0.80 cents...
just interested in your view
cheers.

 

[nunthewiser]

Hey Nun,
im a bit stuck, not sure if i should participate in the CR at 0.75,
or if i should wait it out and mabey the sp will fall to below 0.80 cents...
just interested in your view
cheers.

I cannot advise you on how to spend your cash. At current prices the CR is at a decent discount but will it hold this level when the stock is released to the market is the question.

i have stated my ST TECHNICAL targets earlier in this thread, whether it gets there is a different matter.


some people here think its a bargain, others think it needs to correct itself quite a bit.

Your call according to YOUR strategy and plans for your investment/trade/skim or whatever else you plan on.

i am not here to advise anything nor argue opinions, merely to voice my thoughts as they come to me also

Sorry i cannot help .

 

[condog]

Snipets From Hartleys Report
We have increased valuation and price target, from 102cps to 123cps.

Background – Work Completed to Date
Since the beginning of CY2010, Hilcorp has achieved exceptional flow rates from 2 recompleted wells and 4 newly drilled ....... Initial flow rates have averaged 4.5 million cubic feet of gas per day and 1,072 barrels of condensate per day, reducing to average 60 day rates of 3.8 million cubic feet of gas per day with 570 barrels of condensate per day.

Possible Forward Work Program Accelerated - Again
Hilcorp indicated that it may be possible that more wells are planned for the next 18 months than anticipated from a few weeks ago. The Joint Venture has 10-13 wells planned for the remainder of this calendar year and it is possible that 30-35 wells will be drilled next year on Aurora’s acreage.


We expect a strong maiden reserve report later this month as well as continued successful drilling results. We rate AUT as a Buy with a 6-month price target of 123cps.

Well Performance and Project Economics
The potential of the field is highlighted by .....Morgan, Rancho Grande and Turnbull 1. Morgan has earned revenue (post royalty of 25%) of US$4.4m in its first two months and should payout in less than four months. Rancho will have similar economics .

The three most recent wells... have exceptional condensate ratios, averaging 400 barrels of condensate per million cubic feet of gas produced. This has a significant effect on the economics of the field and is predominantly a function of location. The condensate ratio tends to increase in a north-westerly direction, as indicated in the diagram below. This means that the Longhorn acreage potentially has better economics.