AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[condog]

I don't think we need bother getting into specific points here. It's pretty clear you were extremely enthusiastic and positive about ADI until recently, and AUT too. I remember you congratulating me recently when I picked up AUT at 66c during one of the brief slumps, yet now you seem to be talking about a 40c bounce? Take a look at the ADI threads, your glowing works, frequent updates with pictures, excitment, etc. Now you have changed. It's not like I'm just imagining this change, it is there. I'm not saying it's bad or wrong, but it is there, it's unexplained, and curiously, you're denying it.

AWE wouldn't have paid 42c for ALL of ADI if they weren't very much convinced that it was worth substantially more than that. Before the 40c offer, ADI was trading well below 40c. Yes, I do think AUT is good value at 75c and yes, I would be very upset if I was forced to sell my holding for 75c. Dilution sucks, but I can buy my share in the SPP, so to some extent it's okay. Also, comparing a hostile take over price to a SPP price isn't exactly apples and apples. One pushes the price up, the other down (at least temporarily). One is an unnecessary evil, the other is a necessary thing. In any case, bringing this topic up doesn't seem relevant to the question you were responding to without answering (what caused your clear and sudden change in attitude towards the Texas oil?).

Answering a question with a question rather than an answer is the tactic used by folk such as politicians reluctant to reveal what's going on.

Thats what i was trying to say, but in an apparently offensive way. I didnt mean to be offensive, but yes this is what i meant 100%.

Your change of heart and sentiment is so apparnet, and in my opinion i cant find anything to justify it other then the fact you sold out of ADI and AUT.

All other factors look better then when you sold. The oil price is relatively similar, the post CR sentiment is excellent.

It baffles me??? Why the sudden and severe change. Whats the justification???

 

[Agentm]

Thats what i was trying to say, but in an apparently offensive way. I didnt mean to be offensive, but yes this is what i meant 100%.

Your change of heart and sentiment is so apparnet, and in my opinion i cant find anything to justify it other then the fact you sold out of ADI and AUT.

All other factors look better then when you sold. The oil price is relatively similar, the post CR sentiment is excellent.

It baffles me??? Why the sudden and severe change. Whats the justification???

lol


"whats the justification??"

what are you on condog? you think i have to justify anything to you?

you seem to demand things condog.. your arrogance and attitude towards me is remarkable, its almost as if your berating me for looking at oil prices and aut and discussing it with slipperz..

condog, i dont have justify any reasons to you in any way in regards to discussing the price of oil with slipperz..

 

[nunthewiser]

lol


"whats the justification??"

what are you on condog? you think i have to justify anything to you?

you seem to demand things condog.. your arrogance and attitude towards me is remarkable, its almost as if your berating me for looking at oil prices and aut and discussing it with slipperz..

condog, i dont have justify any reasons to you in any way in regards to discussing the price of oil with slipperz..

Its not just you . My posts have been reported because of my view on price targets.. i admit i should have worded them better so as not to call a spade a spade and i have now taken that under my belt.

This thread it seems, if one offers an alternative view to the overall consensus, that opinion is berated and leads to an argument instead of both sides being heard.

I admit from a personal basis that i should may have been more tactful in my pointing out of the opposing side of the coin and now am hesitant to actually post what i actually want to post towards some here.

Dear agentm , Nulla . your analaysis and viewpoints are just as valid as any other opinions here and please do not let ppls better worded abuse sway your view and stop you posting the other side of the coin.

p.s nice chart and commentary Nulla and i fully agree with your views on a major corrective move to bring the trend and market cap to a more realistic level on this stock.
It may not happen but it is a realistic and UNBIASED viewpoint that perhaps should be listened to instead of scorned.

Be assured that all abusive responses to alternative viewpoints made in this thread will be now reported also just to keep the game fair.

haveaniceday.

 

[5haretrader]

Perhaps if we left the personal sniping of posters in this thread to private conversations we could get back onto discussing the stock itself

Not going to take sides on the argument, but agentm picked the timeing of the cap raising to a 'T'. Condog has analysed this stock immensely and we are all the more wiser from his efforts. How about we call a truce and just accept that both of you have contributed in your own way to the forum, no more personal attacks neccessary?

 

[nunthewiser]

Technical analysis chart to follow.

It takes time for me to work out how to do it, hence why i usually voice my thoughts rather than show it.

 

[nunthewiser]

forgive the basics but whats in my head cannot be reproduced in a printed analytical manner.

you get what you get.

 

[nunthewiser]

But hey .......... it could always bust up all those stars allighning and run for the moon .........in which case i will trade it and go with the flow in a not so DANGEROUS area..

I am not currently holding , unbiased and happy to trade it.

i just regard this current area it is in a highly DANGEROUS pivot point and if it busts south it will catch a few out.

I personally would not enter here as the risk level is too high for my own personal use but would reconsider on a break north and maybe a retest OR another look between .66.and .72 if it made it .

from there i would be at ready on close watch to analyze the actual action at time to see who was playing the action.

If it broke south from there i would be waiting a proper grounding before looking again.



p.s i just noticed chart and it seemed i got vol transfer correct but didnt point out the obvious

 

[stefan_invester]

Hey everyone
im a bit stuck...
cant decide whether or not i should get into the SPP at 0.75
or wait and see if the share price heads down south, if it dosent, than
i feel that if i don't do the SPP than i have missed out big time, but if it does go south, than the SPP would have been a HUGE mistake.

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated
cheers

 

[nulla nulla]

nulla i am thinking about the .40 bounce also, will it happen?

Yes this is where I see the lower support level. I inadvertedly posted support level of $0.75 and $0.76 when I meant to post $0.75 then $0.68. After that I see the next level of support at $0.40.

40c what an absolute load of !@$%!@#$!@ .

Some shares are like hot air balloons. They go up on hot air, then when it cools they come down fairly quickly. If this runs out of supporting hot air it could very easily test $0.40 again.

Clearly Nulla has little knowledge of the fundamentals and is commenting from a technical perspective which i commented against

Supply & Demand. Production and Sales. From what I have read, demand is falling and there is an oversupply developing. This leaves production and sales?
IMO that $0.40 support levels is has more likelihood of being tested than $2.00.

 

[condog]

Well guys clearly your entitled to your opinions and clearly our opinions differ very much. Its ashame you need to launch into name calling Agent, i thought you where above that behaviour. My question was at your behaviour not you personally.

Nun, its always entertaining to read your posts, very honest, always stirring and a great devils advocate. I reported you not because of your opinion, but becasue you pretended to be posting information from a broker that was infact your old username.

In terms of your price targets I feel id rather trust Hartleys $1.23, and Euroz $1.32 then your guide which has no detailed analysis or reasoning.

A simple trendline gives us a reasonable guide where its heading, but right now its ultimately imo a news driven stock, with price catlyst being new wells and flow data.

With hilcorps 2nd rig about to arrive and a 3rd rig planned in early 2011 this trendline may actually turn upwards.

 

[condog]

Some shares are like hot air balloons. They go up on hot air, then when it cools they come down fairly quickly. If this runs out of supporting hot air it could very easily test $0.40 again.

Very very true. But this one has risen with value added by each new producing well.

Supply & Demand. Production and Sales. From what I have read, demand is falling and there is an oversupply developing. This leaves production and sales?

No doubt dry gas oversupply and problems appear to be developing. This in my opinion is why AUT is one of the most attractive in the entire Eagleford. They have the two highest IP's and 30 day flows in the entire eagleford and they are extremely liquid rich. Plus theres a clear liquids trend developing showing more liquids in the NW direction as pointed out in the Hartleys report. Longhorn is to the NW and is higher interest and makes up 65% of AUT interests. Liquids tend to track the oil price and supply demand characteristics. They are also easily transportable in eneryg dense liquid form.

 

[condog]

From Hartleys report and of significant interest - discl - far less then 10% of entire article.

Hilcorp indicated that it may be possible that more wells are planned for the next 18 months than anticipated from a few weeks ago. The Joint Venture has 10-13 wells planned for the remainder of this calendar year and it is possible that 30-35 wells will be drilled next year on Aurora’s acreage.

Also
Aurora is well funded to contribute its share of the costs of the aggressive program. The acceleration of drilling has increased the net present value of the assets and shortened the timeframe to significant earnings and cashflow.

If we accelerate the drilling program, there are scenarios under which AUT may require a small amount of debt funding in H2 2011; however, this is more than offset by the uplift in net present value.

And

Hilcorp expects to have 3 rigs operational in 2011 and one full time frac crew. Each rig will be a Flex 3 build, capable of ~22 day spud to spud performance.

Hilcorp plans to drill 40-50 wells next year with AUT likely to participate in ~75% of these. The timing of drilling which area is largely dependent on lease expiry. This means that the majority of drilling this year will be focussed on the Sugarloaf AMI (5-7 wells), with 2-3 wells also likely on the Ipanema AMI. Next year, the majority of wells will be on the Longhorn AMI.

 

[Joe Blow]

The name calling, snide remarks and insults end here or I will not hesitate to close this thread. And no, this is not open for discussion so please do not reply to this post.

Lets just stick to the facts and analysis shall we?

 

[AngusSmart]

From Hartleys report and of significant interest - discl - far less then 10% of entire article.

Hilcorp indicated that it may be possible that more wells are planned for the next 18 months than anticipated from a few weeks ago. The Joint Venture has 10-13 wells planned for the remainder of this calendar year and it is possible that 30-35 wells will be drilled next year on Aurora’s acreage.

Also
Aurora is well funded to contribute its share of the costs of the aggressive program. The acceleration of drilling has increased the net present value of the assets and shortened the timeframe to significant earnings and cashflow.

If we accelerate the drilling program, there are scenarios under which AUT may require a small amount of debt funding in H2 2011; however, this is more than offset by the uplift in net present value.

And

Hilcorp expects to have 3 rigs operational in 2011 and one full time frac crew. Each rig will be a Flex 3 build, capable of ~22 day spud to spud performance.

Hilcorp plans to drill 40-50 wells next year with AUT likely to participate in ~75% of these. The timing of drilling which area is largely dependent on lease expiry. This means that the majority of drilling this year will be focussed on the Sugarloaf AMI (5-7 wells), with 2-3 wells also likely on the Ipanema AMI. Next year, the majority of wells will be on the Longhorn AMI.

the only part of that report that concerned me was the wells on oil rich areas have to be closer..

As previously mentioned, the Turnbull 1H well had a very high GOR. This meant that it had to be filed as an oil well. In order to hold acreage for oil fields in the area, a well must be drilled every 320 acres, as opposed to ~1,000 acres for a gas field. The implication of this is that it is likely that a significant portion of Longhorn will require 320 acre spacing of wells (we estimate 50%). This means more drilling in a short timeframe at Longhorn, which also is the area that we believe has the best economics and is Aurora’s largest exposure. If we accelerate the drilling program, there are scenarios under which AUT may require a small amount of debt funding in H2 2011; however, this is more than offset by the uplift in net present value.

But they should be well funded by then one would imagine.. Now i wish i could find my letter about that 75c offer.... looks like i will have to miss it..

 

[condog]

Enterprise Products Partners will construct 563 km of new pipeline to expand its natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline system to accommodate growing production volumes from the Eagle Ford Shale play, Texas, the United States of America.

Three additional pipeline segments totalling 270 km will be added to Enterprise’s East – West Rich Gas Mainline.

The first phase will involve the installation of 42 km of 24 inch diameter pipeline extending the mainline to the far western reaches of the Eagle Ford Shale. The remaining 228 km, to be built in two segments, will comprise of 30 and 36 inch diameter pipelines that will serve the eastern portion of the Eagle Ford Shale.

Upon completion, the Eagle Ford Shale Rich Gas Mainline System and associated laterals will consist of approximately 483 km of pipelines representing gathering and transportation capacity of more than 600 MMcf/d of gas.

 

[nioka]

My "take" on AUT. I called 75c as fair value for the SPP. I also said that I would take up the offer. I have. I've also bought on market at 75c.

Unless there is a "duster" or a "serious event" then I believe that it is "onwards and upwards" from here. The only reason I see that there may be for more capital to be needed will be to fund extensive drilling. This will only occur if the results will justify the expenditure (as is the case with the present cap raising). In which case the future earnings will justify the additional capital.

There are reasons why others may differ in their opinion they may be right, they may be wrong but opinions are just that, opinions. Here you have mine.

 

[condog]

Reliance buys Eagle Ford shale project pie

Mumbai: Reliance Industries (RIL) will invest $1.36 billion to acquire 45% interest in a joint venture for Eagle Ford shale acreage of Texas in the US, its second investment in a shale gas asset in three months.

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RIL will pay upfront $263 million in cash and the remaining in the form of subsidies for Pioneer and Newpek LLC’s future drilling expenses.

Pioneer will own 46%, Reliance will hold 45% and the others, the remaining 9% of the JV.

RIL will pay $1.315 billion for its implied share of 118,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford fields.

This equates to around $11440 per gross acre or $25000+ per net acre. When you multiply that out by AUt net acerage and a 45% interest, If Reliance purchased a 45% interst in AUT at the same cost per acer it would cost them $125M ish.

Extrapolate that to a 100% interest as a guide to value for AUT and you get an mcap of approx $279M ish

At 84c AUT has an mcap of $210M ish

Given AUT has the two best wells and is proving to be very liquid rich a small premium should be applied of around 10-20% or so imo. Which would equate to an mcap of approx $307M to $334M based on the Reliance / Pioneer deal of recent weeks.

On that basis it makes current AUT look cheap.

Based on that takeover AUT is actually underpriced.

 

[condog]

KKR are back into the Eagleford, theres usually a quick profit involved when KKR get involved from my experienc, having been on the recieving end of them a few times.

KKR went to work. Last year it paid about $350 million for a minority stake of East Resources, earning a quick profit of more than $1 billion when Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) bought most of the company's assets 11 months later. In June, KKR signed a deal with Hilcorp Energy, a closely held exploration and production company based in Houston, to develop the Eagle Ford formation southeast of San Antonio.

From Businessweek.com

 

[Huitzii]

AUT are looking quite promising stasticly at the moment.
The last 3 months have shown a positive gain and seem to be under valued.
They have been consistently above the 68 day average and bollinger bands are indicating a change in trend, hopefully this will be an upward trend.
At the moment the sellers are controlling this one and it looks very promising.
I hold AUT
DYOR

 

[prgudula]

if the link is not posted earlier on AUT and SSN
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-and-more-on-tax/story-e6frg9ex-1225891071532