Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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nunthewiser said:
Thanks in advance and i will try and post a more up to date chart for you later this evening

Not trying to be picky ........ Just keeping it real on a technical perspective.
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As promised earlier an up to date chart of AUT, The analysis from earlier still is valid and on a PERSONAL viewpoint i still see no reason for entry as yet..

Intresting that the sellers still had control today on a day when the majority of the market flew.

Watching like a hawk.
 

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Nun i think the sellers might control till the weekend, with many holders who have purchased recently able to ditch and grap with the SPP and dependign on their circumstance grap a quick 7-10c profit. Last opportunity for punters to do so is friday.(depending on thier cash situations of course)

In terms of this stock sticking to technical trends, its been basically news driven, and theres several large possible price catalist announcments pending.

T2 frac should have numbers out this week, monday at the latest, T3 will be on the back of that. Within two weeks the reserves upgrade is likely to be out and Hartleys state its likely to rise from 7% recovery to 22%. If thats the case thats a 300% reserves upgrade, which for the brokers and punters who calculate thier positions on mcap/reserves thats a monumental upgrade. We are also expecting to hear of an accelleration of wells for 2010 with 10-13 planned rather then 6. And the accellerated program for 2011, with 40-50 wells instaed of 25, of which AUT are said to be involved in approx 37.

Hartleys last comment is : expect regular upgrades.

Theres also two new wells about to spud, May Unit and Patinio which are on the TRRC site.

In relation to the pioneer Reliance deal AUT offers great value.
 
condog said:
Nun why have you not adopted the new trend line from roughly 20th April when the old trend line broke?
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The trend line that i have on the chart is valid to me , it maps the beginning and middle ground of the price action of the last 6 months and also maps where i expect it to rejoin in the overall picture.

Would also like to point out that this Trendline IF broken to the south would indicate to me that all bets were off and to take a backseat and wait until it found a true base before bothering to look again.

anyone can place a trendline anywhere on a chart and make it mean something to them at any given point.

That line represents my thoughts on where the overall trend line is based on the last 6 months of action.

Different time periods produce different trend lines.

All of these posts are merely my opinion and may turn out incorrect.

The market does what the market does, we can only go along for the ride, picking where to join that ride is your own personal choice.
 
Its good to see someone in here playing devils advocate (Nun)
Im expecting to see this go sideways for the rest of the week and an up trend starting on Monday...see how we go
The market will do what it wants to do
 
Nun thats spot on, there is no perfect way to draw a trend line and virtually no one uses the same technique. Which in itself means the trendlines are infact only a rough guide also. In the ball park so to speak.

Similarly the longer your trendline stays off the stock the more likely your trendline is incorrectly placed, or a new trend has occured. Which is why and where a sound grasp of the fundamentals comes into play. The primary reason imo the trend changed in mid April was becasue thats when Hilcorp established themselves as being able to drill and frac reliably and from that point in time they accellerated the drilling with quicker and quicker drill times.

Thats why i asked about your trendline and why you hadnt adjusted it. With 3 months off the line and a sound reason for the change its likely the new trend needs drawing as its well founded that the more time a stock touches a trendline the stronger that trendline is as an indicator.

With only 3 touches in 6 months, none during the past 3 months and having just had both a sizable decline in the market and energy prices in recent weeks, plus a discounted capital raising. My opinion would be if it was infact the right trendline, for sure the events of recent weeks would have dragged us back to it. But as you say trendlines, theres none that are perfect and they only express one persons opinion.

On the flip side, i believe the trend chaned around 20th April. I beileve the events of the recent weeks have proved the strength of the value in this stock. We had negative overall market sentiment, a big plunge in oil prces and a Capital raising on the back of it, yet still the stock performs well. To support that we have two brokers reccomending it to thier clients with valuations of $1.23 and $1.32 and saying to expect upgrades. On top of that we have a deal being done by their closest eaglford neighbour that values AUT acerage at a minimum of $279M when it has a current mcap of just $207M. Lots of unanswered questions here about why you think its over valued, based on one trendline thats touched the stock twice.

If i was to draw it Id say we have had three clear trends. One during the first phase of development under TCEI, One under hilcorp and one which represents the 3 big forces of the last few weeks.
aut trens.jpg

If i was to draw it with only one trend line id put it in a trading band as follows.
AUT%20trend%20line.jpg
Note this is a cut and paste of my post a few days ago, the lines arent straight, but they areclose ebough to highlight the point.

But ultimately at present its news driven and in the next few weeks with the turnbull results, the two new wells being drilled, the accellerated program, the reserves upgrade, so if energy prices remain good we will hopefully see a post CR new trend, and imo at least a continuation of the yellow trendline.

Hilcrop will have 3 rigs on site by early 2011 with spud to drill completion estimated at 22days, so with them adding value at that pace we will certainly be seeing in my opinion some new trends established.

And whilst the trend is your friend , especially for short term traders, it must be remembered a trend line is one persons view and onely one piece of a much biger puzzle. But its a healthy debate to be having. And despite all this, there are not too many stocks enjoying the value AUT are adding and that can claim to have trendlines heading in the direction of AUT at present.

I guess to we are opposite ends of the spectrum on this stock at presnt, your potentially looking very short term, where as im in boots and all with CGT implications on the trades. I usually trade as well, and i see no reason to enter on a day trade or very st trading basis, but I would be watching it closely for a breakout based on its trend and fundamentals. From a medium term erspective it looks fantastice imo.
 
Good article from the Independent on the key points of the climate change bill currently before the US congress

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/the-main-points-of-the-us-climate-bill-1974228.html

Two paragraphs worth highlighting

"The bill would set up a national system putting restrictions on carbon, abolishing cap-and-trade plans already set up by individual states such as California. But it would compensate states for any lost revenue.
Mindful of the troubled economy, the proposal puts the burden on major factories and power plants.
The bill promises six billion dollars a year to make the US transportation system more energy efficient along with tax incentives for trucks and other heavy vehicles to shift to clean natural gas."
 
Thanks Slipperz

Another of Interest
Rig count remains relatively stabel accross US, with Eagleford up by 4.
http://www.pennenergy.com/index/pet.../oil-shale/eagle-ford/with-gas_rig_count.html


Pioneer is coming down under with a shale project and 150 jobs in victoria, anyone feel like some mud in thier eyes. http://www.victoriaadvocate.com/new...update_071410_103543/?business&local-business



Oil found in Horn River gas play
By Dan Healing, Calgary Herald July 14, 2010 4:18 PM Be the first to post a comment
The U.S. company that pioneered technology that has unlocked huge unconventional gas plays across North America is probing the B.C. Horn River Basin this summer with a different target in mind: light oil.

Toby Darden, chairman of Fort Worth, Texas-based Quicksilver Resources, said Wednesday oil has been discovered in sufficient quantity to justify further testing on its northeastern B.C. acreage.

“We’re excited about the oil shows we’ve seen. Our cores have shown significant mobile oil saturation in the rock, which means it can move and that’s important,” he said at an industry forum in Calgary.


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/busine...n+River+play/3277697/story.html#ixzz0thge8Ufe

$43 Billion in Upstream Oil & Gas Deals Announced in the Second Quarter of 2010

First six months bodes well for second half M&A activity, however, BP blowout and fickle gas prices could prompt additional deal flow

PLS, Inc. ("PLS") and its international partner Derrick Petroleum Services ("Derrick") report that global merger & acquisition activity for the second quarter of 2010 reached $43.1 billion in 165 transactions as compared with first quarter 2010 volume of $47.7 billion in 157 transactions. With $90.8 billion in 322 transactions in the first six months of 2010, global M&A activity is on pace to beat the 2009 full year total of $150.1 billion in 500 transactions and is already fast approaching the $114.7 billion in 556 deals in all of 2008.

The Eagle Ford Shale in Texas witnessed eight transactions topping $3.1 billion in value during the period. Two JVs accounted for $1.7 billion, 54% of deal volume. In addition to the $1.3 billion Pioneer Natural Resources/Reliance Industries JV, New York-based private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. entered into a $400 million JV in the central oil-oriented Eagle Ford with Hilcorp Energy Co. Besides Shell's purchase of 100,000 acres for a rumored $1 billion, other Eagle Ford asset acquisitions during the quarter included Talisman's $360 million purchase of 37,000 acres from Common Resources in the gas condensate portion of the Eagle Ford. Overall, acreage in the Eagle Ford continues to rise in value as operators adjust their business plans in the face of recent success and new competition from firms like Shell, KKR, Talisman and Reliance.

For perspective, the Marcellus and Eagle Ford Shales represented 88% of all unconventional transactions on a dollar volume basis and 52% of all U.S. transactions during the period.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...d-in-the-second-quarter-of-2010-98400044.html
 
ASX AUT Announcment 15th July 2010

aut ann.jpg

Mentions new well numbers as well. 8 for the AMI and 4 for the other areas exclusive to AUT for 2010. Fits in well with the Hartleys report.
 
update on the horse trading in congress...

Greetings from Washington....

The architects behind this year's sweeping US Senate energy and climate proposal are working overtime to round up support for a slimmed-down version of their bill that would curb emissions from only the electric utility sector.

Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) had previously conceded that they would be willing to scale back their goal of an economy-wide price on carbon, and the pair is now ramping up efforts to take the lead in making such a utility-only bill a reality.

A draft proposal from the duo surfaced yesterday shortly after Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) announced his plans to address emissions from power plants as part of a larger energy bill later this month. Meanwhile, Kerry worked late into the evening to try to drum up support from stakeholders off the Hill.

The maneuvering comes as a number of senators are feverishly working to ensure that their priorities make the cut when Reid unveils the final package. Reid provided a rough outline yesterday of what he plans to include in the four-part package: oil spill response, energy efficiency, clean energy production and efforts to slash greenhouse gases from power plants. That leaves Reid a lot of wiggle room to pick and choose which measures he will include in the final package, which he wants to send to the floor the week of July 26.

I would be surprised to see natural gas fired power station construction decreasing in coming years
 
Update on previous anlaysis.

Todays action was all about indesicion no major control on either behalf, Formed a "Doji" and i still have no reason to change my previous analysis and price targets at present.

There is still no indicators nor signals that show me at these prices it is worth an entry for ME as yet.

Tommorow is another day and will be intresting to see who grabs the reins for control of the action.

My bet is the sellers based on a close watch of trades as they were going through today ,but i could be wrong and happy to be.

No rush on this one.



p.s LOL @ condogs butchering of my previous chart...... glad that makes sense to you , i,ll stick with my own analysis.
 
Looking back at my previous ( unbutchered) chart it seems i made a blue..... the FIB levels indicated are posted wrong , where 0% is that should read 23.6..and so on and so on down the levels........ im surprised it was not picked up and i apologise if it caused any confusion.

Next chart i post it will be rectified to show the correct numbers.

The previous support and resistance levels indicated are still valid though and that is the main basis of my analysis. The fib levels were only added as an intresting observation on where they fitted in with trendline and previous support and pivot areas.
 
it will be interesting to see what the chart looks like when the reserves upgrade comes, as i know a lot are waiting for it , should be soon.the SPP should also be oversubscribed.
 
nunthewiser said:
"i am NOT swayed by many of the overexhuberant comments "

"relaying an unbiased viewpoint rather than a holders view."

"p.s LOL @ condogs butchering of my previous chart......"
Click to expand...

Please avoid these types of comments as recently advised by Joe. Lets focus on the stock, the chart or the information and its merits or lack there of.
 
Todays the last day for most to be selling and trying to grab thier allocation of discounted SPP shares. Should mean monday returns to some semblence of normality.

Obviously some shorter term traders may then look to offload upon receiving thier shares, but by then we should have price catalysts of two more Turnbull results and possibly our reserves upgrade as well as potentially a spud on May unit or patinio unit.

Lots of news to look forward to in coming weeks.

On another positive note at present the Oil futures look good with 90 days above the spot, 6 moonths above both, 1yr above all 3 and 5 year the highest at around $80ish on the charts.

With 5 year currently at $80ish the current (that can change quickly ) outlook for oil is being voted positive, by those who count.
 
extract of interest FROM
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/359...s-liquids-ngls-coal-offshore-drilling-gom.htm

according to Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry. Porter, who built his reputation on finding safe-value investments poised to give his followers years of exceptional returns, also has a reputation as an independent thinker with a penchant for "out-of-consensus" viewpoints. He shares some of his contrarian opinions in this exclusive interview with The Energy Report.

TER: Meanwhile, in the wake of this spill, many people are talking more about alternative ways of getting oil. For instance, I've seen oil shale discussions on morning TV. How realistic is it to expect more production out of tar sands, etc.?

PS: Well, the Eagle Ford shale has a lot of condensate in it, which isn't necessarily oil, but actually in some cases is more valuable than oil because it's easier to crack it into gasoline. There's already a lot of natural gas liquid production today in various shales across the country, and I expect big increases in that.

I have an out-of-consensus view here, but my sources-all practicing oilmen in Texas who own land in the Eagle Ford and have drilled wells there themselves-tell me that they believe the Eagle Ford will be the largest single oilfield in the history of the United States. And they said oil, not natural gas. They're talking about natural gas liquids, which are just as good as oil-or as I indicated, even better in a lot of cases.

TER: That sounds like good news.

PS: Depending on your outlook, I'm afraid it means that natural gas prices will stay depressed for a very long time, but it's definitely going to be a big game-changer for domestic, onshore production. Just last month, Reliance Industries Ltd. (BSE:RIL), the biggest conglomerate in India, paid around $1.3 billion for 40% of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.'s (NYSE:pXD) Eagle Ford property. China hasn't bought anything in the Eagle Ford, but they will. I personally think they're likely to buy Petrohawk Energy Corporation (NYSE:HK). I have no evidence of that, just an instinct. Petrohawk has some of the best properties, but China is probably the only one willing to pay the very high price they're demanding. So that's the next deal I expect. You're definitely going to see a lot more deals.

TER: What stands out about Petrohawk?

PS: I think its first year's drilling campaign was in 2009, and they drilled something like 28 different holes without a single dry one. When you have no dry holes, the return on your capital from your drilling program is vastly higher. It's a whole new ballgame. It's just vastly more efficient and therefore the eventual profit margins from production will be even higher than they already are.

In my mind, horizontal drilling and the existence of liquids in these shales is the game-changer for the energy business, and I really don't think people appreciate how big a change it's going to be or how large the production from these fields is going to be. But there is one big hiccup in all of this.

TER: What's that?

PS: There are a lot of environmental concerns about the fracking process, and I don't think that they're going to go away. Thus, I anticipate much tighter controls going forward on the horizontal drilling technologies that these companies have been using, which will make drilling progressively more expensive. Right now a single well costs them about $5 million to drill, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the price increase significantly to $10 million or $15 million per well just because of the costs of using these chemicals and making sure they get cleaned up.

TER: Does this provide an investment opportunity-looking at the drilling companies as opposed to the oil producers?

PS: That's a tough question. When you can buy a drilling company at a 50% discount to the value of its rigs, it's a good buy, but drilling isn't a high-margin business, so they inevitable trade at a huge discount to book as soon as the price of the commodity falls. In my mind, that makes them really speculative for the average investor. I think it makes more sense just to buy the companies with the best acreage in the field, and sooner or later you're going to make a lot of money. Even if it takes a long time to get all the holes drilled, the resource is there.

I don't think most investors appreciate that there aren't any dry holes in these fields because they use seismic technology to look before they drill. They know the exact depth of the shale and once they know they're in it, they just drill sideways.

TER: You talked about how massive Eagle Ford is. Are other fields in the U.S. exciting much discussion?

PS: Absolutely. And they're pretty much all over the place. I think they have shale gas production now in 30 different states. The big ones are the Marcellus, Haynesville, Barnett and the Bakken. I think the difficulty is trying to produce these wells in a way that isn't very destructive to the environment, because horizontal drilling and the fracking process are very disruptive to groundwater supplies. They have to be really careful where they do this kind of drilling to avoid the risk of contaminating a large reservoir.
 
PS: Absolutely. And they're pretty much all over the place. I think they have shale gas production now in 30 different states. The big ones are the Marcellus, Haynesville, Barnett and the Bakken. I think the difficulty is trying to produce these wells in a way that isn't very destructive to the environment, because horizontal drilling and the fracking process are very disruptive to groundwater supplies. They have to be really careful where they do this kind of drilling to avoid the risk of contaminating a large reservoir.
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That is a very sobering and scary conclusion to that interview. There could be/would be very serious consequences if ground water supplies were irrevocably contaminated. At one level it could spell financial disaster for the companies doing the drilling and of course create some havoc with communities relying on underground water. Think about irrigation or underground streams flowing into reservoirs.

With the unfolding disaster in the Gulf of Mexico one would think politicians and communities would be very careful to ensure another disaster didn't happen.:(
 

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