BUY - Bounty Oil

[StockAsArOck]

Major holder moves are of interest to me at the moment, as I suspect most of the movement were seeing right now (yes, the negative movement) has and element of "rich man aquiring" about it.
Trouble is, from my observations, no ones selling apart from him and maybe a few skittish day traders looking for a fast ride, this has created what I call a "fake queue".
This is namely a queue that has the "average trading range" covered by one or two holders, via multiple accounts/brokers.
The average trading range refers to the allowable order placement range, ie comsec say being 500 min with a max sell not being beyond a 25% gain on average.
Major holders can feed the queues with multiple orders, buy and sell, and see clearly when a genuine seller or buyer enters, thus achieving a monopoly on that particular stocks price movement.
My theory is, that this is ALWAYS a indicator to watch closely, its just not a guaranteed win signal, as they dont exist in my opinion.
Short term the trend should continue to look as though its a stock being hammered, but the reality is quite different, someone wants you little holders to pi$$ off and sell up, WHY????



StockAs

 

[Shrewd Crude]

Ive spent a few hours studying this company this afternoon...
I think it looks pretty attractive in the low 2cents as its got Kiliwani discovery which could offer revenues of up to 10 million dollars per year...
for a MC of around 6m...
and 4th quarter drilling coming up...
Humm... Im going to think about this company over the next month...

.^sc

 

[seasprite]

Extract from MEC Resources

Prospective Recoverable Gas Resources Estimated up to 16.3 Tcf (P10) for PEP11 Offshore Sydney Basin

· Technical review of PEP11 Offshore Sydney Basin completed

· Six prospects identified with total estimated prospective recoverable gas resources of up to 16.3Tcf (P10)

· Advent currently looking to secure an appropriate drilling rig, including farm-in options

MEC Resources Limited (ASX: MMR) is pleased to advise that investee company Advent Energy Ltd (“Advent”) has completed a technical review of the prospective recoverable resources within the PEP 11 Offshore Sydney Basin.

In summary, six prospects and leads have been identified which Advent estimates could have up to 16.3Tcf (P10) prospective recoverable gas resources.

The P50 and P90 estimated prospective recoverable resources are 5.1Tcf and 1.2Tcf respectively.

Advent commissioned specialists from the Nanjing Institute to integrate the PEP11 1981, 1991 and 2004 seismic data for the first time. They have interpreted and mapped five key horizons.

Advent has used these maps to estimate the gross rock volumes to complete a Monte Carlo probabilistic estimation of the range of possible recoveries from each prospect.

Previously published reports and studies were used to estimate the range of values for other parameters such as porosity and gas saturation. These studies have been disclosed in previous ASX Announcements by MEC Resources on 08/08/08, 15/09/08 and 25/09/08.

The P10, P50 and P90 numbers quoted above are an arithmetic sum of the estimates for the six prospects and leads.

The largest of these is the new “Fish” Prospect which alone has a P10 prospective recoverable gas resource of over 9.0Tcf.

 

[seasprite]

12 November, 2008

Dear Sir/Madam

Confirmation of hydrocarbon gas in offshore Sydney Basin
MEC Resources Limited (ASX: MMR)

A hydrocarbon gas source has been analysed and confirmed in the offshore Sydney Basin. The confirmation of a hydrocarbon based gas analysis was released at the Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia (PESA) “Eastern Australasian Basins Symposium” 14-17 September 2008.

The confirmation of this type of hydrocarbon gas seepage is an extremely significant development for MEC Resources investee Advent Energy, which holds an interest in the offshore Sydney Basin Petroleum Exploration Permit PEP 11. Active seeps of the nature reported are considered by experts in this field to occur in basins now actively generating hydrocarbons and or that contain excellent migration pathways. The methane gas has been reported by independent testing to comprise a mixture of thermogenic and biogenic gas.

Hydrocarbon gas analysis has been confirmed to be;

Methane(CH4) - 90.69%
Oxygen(O2) - 1.58%
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - 4.12%
Nitrogen(N2)- 3.7%

The gas seepage has been observed from repeated sea floor positions in an area off the coast of New South Wales and along the mainland margin of the PEP11 Permit. The gas is believed by Advent Energy to be sourced from areas within the PEP11 permit area.

The area where the gas has been identified is in the same area where oil and gas seeps have been recorded from Long Reef to Catherine Hill Bay, giving rise to periodic oil slicks occurrences along the coast , especially in the Cape Three points, Terrigal area. Visible gas seeps have been audio-visually recorded, and are available to view at www.adventenergy.com.au as is the full version of this announcement.

MEC is pleased to advise that investee company Advent Energy Ltd (“Advent”) is confident that the offshore Sydney Basin is an active hydrocarbon system following the recent industry research and reporting on the area. Advent holds an interest in the offshore Sydney Basin Petroleum Exploration Permit PEP 11.

Advent is in discussions with a number of international oil sector groups on potential joint ventures.

Advent is also continuing to pursue the securing of an appropriate drilling rig.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

BUY is a stock that caught my attention last week after a volume spike

The company appears to have many oil and gas projects on the go

Utopia it is producing small amounts of oil and gas and aims to increase production to take advantage of its high margins here

Surat/Qld the company has a large land holding with many 5M barrel + oil targets


WA Onshore company has a free carried interest in some small to medium sized oil and gas targets


Nyuni the company made a gas discovery with KEY petroluem (5% BUY 20% KEY) last year I'm not sure what this is worth but they estimate it may contain as much as 1TCF of gas


WA Offshore now we get to the more sexy company making assets
has 2 permits with large high impact oil and gas targets, same sort of area that KAR and MEO operate in

PEL 218 A very interesting oil and gas permit with good CSG potential, BUY has a 23% interest in smack bang in the middle of INP's CSG field to the North where AGL have farmed in for 35% by paying $25m, also to the south lies STX's 66.7% owned CSG prospect where they estimate there to be 8-20TCF CSG
Elephant ground in terms of CSG

Also with their other Qld projects surely given the widespread occurances of CSG/UCG throughout QLD some of BUY's permits which are near and next door to known CSG fields will have CSG potential?


PEP 11 This could be a real company maker, BUY have a 15% free carried interest here and the permit could hold up to 16TCF which if proven has an NPV of $12B+ according to company reports and estimates



The company has alot of projects with good sexy upside and I like it

DYOR

 

[mobcat]

Cool YT i hold BUY it do,s look to be having a growth spurt of late i see that it did 25 Mill in Vol last friday Vwap of 3.8 and over a 100 Mill in the last week With a Vwap of 3.4 Makes whats on offer @ 3 ATM rather appealing i think i might be having a little top up in BUY.

I really like the offshore Sydney Project Gas Project this can really rerate BUY,s Mcap IMO after all it,s only 15 mill ATM with BUY,s a 15% free carried intrest in the project on this firming up i can I think BUY will prove to be a great BUY at these levels (pardon the pun)

 

[mobcat]

I have just topped up @ 3 i see a the jack up rig tender Ann could really come any time Imagine the spotlight that could put on the PEP11 project Offshore Sydney with the big Halogens burning all night Kinda like a big Billboard for Bonty Oil and GAS Burning on the Ocean one can only imagine what it would do to the SP once in place.
GEEZ i think i just talked my self into grabing a few more LOL

 

[mobcat]

And i did grab a few more @3 lucky i did i just see she closed @ 3.3 quite strong asweell on the close, sure interesting times ahead for BUY i do wonder where all this action is coming from of late BUY is doing huge VOLs now , well i dont care now im topped up and on board so lets party :band :dance:

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Very interesting read of Keys presentation just now

BUY has 5% of the Tanzanian Gas project where Key have a 20% interest

KEY are yet to release an estimate of how much gas is there, but unrisked potential was around 2TCF of gas

Be interesting to crunch some numbers to see what this is worth at say $10 barrel of Oil Equivalent

 

[RP_Automotive]

Be interesting to crunch some numbers to see what this is worth at say $10 barrel of Oil Equivalent

well, rule of thumb is 6000cf Gas = 1bbl Oil equivalent

so

2000000000000 / 6000 = 333333333.33

So 333.3mmboe x $10

In English: 333 miilion barrels of Oil equivalent @ $10bbl = $3,333,333,330

Assuming a modest 25% recovery factor and your not doing too bad. Also need factor in the cost of infastructre etc etc

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Good to see 3c hold up as support the last few weeks

While BUY has many projects on the go my guess is the success KAR has had which imo is rubbing off on MEO may also be rubbing off to a lesser extent on good old BUY



MEO was 5c I think 2-3months ago and now just look at it 36c+
and KAR was about $1.50 3months ago and now its $10.50+
I winder where BUY will be in a few months once they get the drill rig sorted for the huge 16TCF+ Offshore Sydney prospect

BUY is a stock that caught my attention last week after a volume spike

The company appears to have many oil and gas projects on the go

Utopia it is producing small amounts of oil and gas and aims to increase production to take advantage of its high margins here

Surat/Qld the company has a large land holding with many 5M barrel + oil targets


WA Onshore company has a free carried interest in some small to medium sized oil and gas targets


Nyuni the company made a gas discovery with KEY petroluem (5% BUY 20% KEY) last year I'm not sure what this is worth but they estimate it may contain as much as 1TCF of gas


WA Offshore now we get to the more sexy company making assets
has 2 permits with large high impact oil and gas targets, same sort of area that KAR and MEO operate in

PEL 218 A very interesting oil and gas permit with good CSG potential, BUY has a 23% interest in smack bang in the middle of INP's CSG field to the North where AGL have farmed in for 35% by paying $25m, also to the south lies STX's 66.7% owned CSG prospect where they estimate there to be 8-20TCF CSG
Elephant ground in terms of CSG

Also with their other Qld projects surely given the widespread occurances of CSG/UCG throughout QLD some of BUY's permits which are near and next door to known CSG fields will have CSG potential?


PEP 11 This could be a real company maker, BUY have a 15% free carried interest here and the permit could hold up to 16TCF which if proven has an NPV of $12B+ according to company reports and estimates



The company has alot of projects with good sexy upside and I like it

DYOR

 

[Jay-684]

I too have taken a decent position in BUY over the last few days after watching and reading the past week when it spiked to 3.8-4c.

Happy to see it hold above 3c, and particularly todays action.

Will hold for the medium term and await the drilling results!

 

[Bluebeard]

This stock finished the week at $0.032 which is probably disappointing for those who purchased earlier in the week and to higher levels. What do people consider to be a possible outcome for a stock like BUY if oil prices fall or there is a fall on Wall Street leading to falls on our markets in Australia. Would such falls be problematic for BUY or does BUYs projects mean that it can overcome such things.

 

[Jay-684]

Up to 0.034 again this morning.

Some nice sized trades going through early on:

600,000 @ 0.034 10:34
300,000 @ 0.034 10:24
695,000 @ 0.032 10:19

not huge parcels but considering the size of the company its good to see its not just trading in small $1-2000 lots.

 

[Bluebeard]

BUY is still around the 3c mark. What is peoples expectations of when new news will come out? Do people still think this is a decent bet at 3c level marks?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Doesn't look like its gonna drop below 3c much

3c looks like support

It looks like its going range between 3c-3.5c

The catalyst for a re-rating or more interest will be when they finally get ready to drill PEP 11

 

[Jay-684]

New announcement this morning re Wakefield 1 well in Eromanga Basin, SA.

BUY estimate upside value as a result of this well (excluding upside in the Sydney Basin) to provide a sp bet 5-23cps

announcement below....:

10 August, 2009
Bounty to Drill Wakefield 1 Well,
PEL 218 - Eromanga Basin SA
Bounty Oil and Gas NL (“Bounty”) is pleased to announce that it will participate in the
Wakefield 1 oil exploration well in PEL 218 Eromanga Basin, South Australia (See
Map 1).
The well will spud in mid-September. It will undertake a multi-zone test of the
Wakefield Prospect targeting up to 11 million barrels of oil recoverable in 8 possible
reservoirs. The prospect is located 7 kilometres west of the Burley 2 well which
recovered good oil shows which were not effectively tested due to mechanical failure.
Success with this well could have significant upside for Bounty shareholders with
potential increase in enterprise value of between 5 – 23 cents per share.
On completion of this well to casing point, Bounty will have earned 23.28% working
interest in the sequence above the Permian of the Cooper Basin in the whole of PEL
218.
PEL 218 is a large permit of 1600 km² offering oil, coal seam gas and tight gas
potential.
Bounty is an Australian ASX listed oil producer and explorer. Its core petroleum production and
exploration assets are located in the Cooper/Eromanga Basins in South Australia and
Queensland and in the Surat Basin
Bounty’s growth assets are spread over a number of high impact projects in Australia and
Tanzania where it is exploring for oil and gas. In Australia, it is a participant in PEP 11, Sydney
Basin, with up to 5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) gas potential as well as other permits. IN Tanzania it is
a participant in the recent Kiliwani North gas discovery and is exploring additional gas pools
with up to 1 Tcf potential.
Bounty has reserves approaching 3 million barrels of oil equivalent.
For further information, please contact:
Graham Reveleigh
Chairman
Tel: +617 4033.1805
Email: mining@cairns.net.au
Philip F Kelso
Chief Executive Officer
Tel:+612 9299 7200
Email: geo@bountyoil.com
Website: www.bountyoil.com

obviously DYOR, I will be holding for both the results of this test and the test results from the Sydney Basin...

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Doesn't look like its gonna drop below 3c much

3c looks like support

It looks like its going range between 3c-3.5c

The catalyst for a re-rating or more interest will be when they finally get ready to drill PEP 11

Well looks like the catalyst for a re-rating/more interest was them talking about drilling a different well which if successful could be worth 5c-23c a share BUY

 

[Jay-684]

4.0-5.5c seems to have been its trading range Dec 06 to Feb 08.... any luck it will find a new support level around 4c until the Sep announcement.

All time high volume today as well of >30m shares traded

YT - you know much about Wakefield 1?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Dont know much about Wakefield other than its in PEL 218 next door to the DLS/BPT drilling in PEL 91


Finally banked some profits today just under 5c, nice 65% return