XAO Technical Analysis

[prawn_86]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some random lines to consider.

3500 would suit me nicely for another round of buying

 

[white_goodman]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some random lines to consider.

hmm bit conflicting aint it... lets see what sort or price action appears around that 3700-3750 level

 

[Largesse]

Re: XAO Analysis

what are the general feelings going forward from here on the XAO?

Another close above 3800 again, many have this as a decisive S/R point. Monday will likely open up again, whether or not it holds this is another question?

For me, it's a clear run through to 4000 is we can hold 3800, but looking nasty if we drop back under.

Thoughts?

 

[clayton4115]

Re: XAO Analysis

well we have been rangebound for a few weeks now, but if we pass 4000 then im definately bullish, i feel we need to pass 4000 before we can see any further upside, but that could probably take time so we may be rangebound for a while yet.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

..or has anyone really considered that we could chop around rangebound for another month or so? Too many bulls and bears atm

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

what are the general feelings going forward from here on the XAO?

Another close above 3800 again, many have this as a decisive S/R point. Monday will likely open up again, whether or not it holds this is another question?

For me, it's a clear run through to 4000 is we can hold 3800, but looking nasty if we drop back under.

Thoughts?

I'm hopeing we hit 4000 this week.
I'm holding spi longs for a swing up.
Lots of volume in the asx20 last friday avo.
*prays to market Gods*
GM makes me nervous to be bullish lately.
I guess its all old news.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm hopeing we hit 4000 this week.
I'm holding spi longs for a swing up.
Lots of volume in the asx20 last friday avo.
*prays to market Gods*
GM makes me nervous to be bullish lately.
I guess its all old news.

Broadway why is your large volume transactions always a positive. Why are they always a reason for getting long

Could it not be an end of month market to print the bar/stats?

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Re: XAO Analysis

Nice convincing move away from resistance at 3800-ish. See how we fare at 3950. Through that, and I'll be looking for a move anywhere up to 4400. Bounce down and we might be checking support at 3700-50 again.

See prior posts in the thread where I gave charts.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

..or has anyone really considered that we could chop around rangebound for another month or so? Too many bulls and bears atm

Its funny how the most recent past movements colour peoples views.

If we run up for 5 years then we will run up next year (late 07 calls.)

If we drop 50% in a year then we are about to drop 20 % next month (early 09 calls).

If we go up 30% in two months then we are going down/up 30% next month (calls now)

Just goes to show the cliches are where the traps are,

the trend ain't your friend anymore

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway why is your large volume transactions always a positive. Why are they always a reason for getting long

Could it not be an end of month market to print the bar/stats?

Past months haven't shown this much volume at 1610. It was triple normal across the entire asx20 on friday avo. Past volume like this has worked for me on a long trade. It seems like too much volume across too many charts to be shorts. So I figure I just have to follow when the pros are buying. Plus I dont think there would be such massive shorting of stocks while we are at the bottom of a range.

As well as serious volume had been entering asia, europe and US charts on dips all last week.

Todays trend was the result of accumulation that had been building up all last week.

The start of the accumulation happened with the banks last Monday.

I can give you charts if you want me to illustrate.

btw, we may not get to 4000 this week, theres some volume on peaks in europe that im seeing.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Posted this in another thread... it's worth noting IMO... XAO first daily close about 200 day MA in, oh, about 18 months.

Lots of other technical "watch" points potentially about to unfold. An up-bar this week gives us a confirmed technical higher low.

The 200 day SMA is flat, but if we approach and break recent highs at 3940 it may also turn up again for the first time in about 18 months.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Past months haven't shown this much volume at 1610. It was triple normal across the entire asx20 on friday avo. Past volume like this has worked for me on a long trade. It seems like too much volume across too many charts to be shorts. So I figure I just have to follow when the pros are buying. Plus I dont think there would be such massive shorting of stocks while we are at the bottom of a range.

As well as serious volume had been entering asia, europe and US charts on dips all last week.

Todays trend was the result of accumulation that had been building up all last week.

The start of the accumulation happened with the banks last Monday.

I can give you charts if you want me to illustrate.

btw, we may not get to 4000 this week, theres some volume on peaks in europe that im seeing.

So in your mind every big buy has no opposite but equal big sell

LOL yes did see it and figured it was end of month rebalancing but as we now know that big 4:10 volume was index reweighting.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

people will only see what they want to ....... i too was going to point out E.O.M shifting but figured it wouldnt matter anyways

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

EW'ers, when does the running flat W4 analysis be proved incorrect?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

EW'ers, when does the running flat W4 analysis be proved incorrect?

No no. Just one more day up then its all over.... well thats been the answer for 2 months so I guess its still the answer :frosty:

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

time to go short again

that is a personal opinion and trading accordingly

no advice, just where im at

nice low % loss stop points on numerous stocks on SHORT positions not just individual stocks either . XAO /XJO looking same ..

take it with a grain of salt as im a bogan and i live in WA .what would i know

 

[RayG]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ok, so it's not strictly XAO analysis but given that we are close coupled to the S&P, this analysis is interesting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aW6PiO4Yzdz8&refer=home

 

[Naked shorts]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think that all these technical indicators flying off will get all the new people to technical analysis (lots of people (dumb people)) buying because they would be under the impression that technical analysis can predict the market. I think this will cause further strength... but the momentum will wear off because the people with experience wont buy into it to keep it going.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think that all these technical indicators flying off will get all the new people to technical analysis (lots of people (dumb people)) buying because they would be under the impression that technical analysis can predict the market. I think this will cause further strength... but the momentum will wear off because the people with experience wont buy into it to keep it going.

I'm buying, I'm buying....

Well, I'm not buying but looking for the falsified exuberance!

Why not?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think that all these technical indicators flying off will get all the new people to technical analysis (lots of people (dumb people)) buying because they would be under the impression that technical analysis can predict the market. I think this will cause further strength... but the momentum will wear off because the people with experience wont buy into it to keep it going.

I thought most indicators have been showing over bought for a month or so. Would that mean the dumb people would of sold out/ shorted?