XAO Technical Analysis

[CamKawa]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeh, I don't use these regular sentiment polls anymore, as I think most are aware these are contrarian indicators and hence, answer accordingly.

Yes I agree with you, that's why I'm interpreting it literally. It was very bullish near the bottom. I'm being and contrarian contrarian or anti-contrarian... if that makes sense... maybe

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

we have already seen the high of this rally as pointed out by that moonbeam "nunthewiser "earlier move along bulls

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

oh bugga i thought i was in the "drunken rant"thread .......

as you were

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

i don't seem to have even a fraction of the experience that some of the participants on this forum have so i would appreciate anyone's insight on this - i look at the XAO chart and it looks like we are coming close to an important Fib number, as well as the 200 DMA as well as previous support. Is that considered signifcant?

I'd guess very significant. Need a good reason for a break here.

So, we're probably going to push through hard.

 

[nikemi]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'd guess very significant. Need a good reason for a break here.

So, we're probably going to push through hard.

Something else i find interesting though still to be proven important, is that from the high on 05/11/08 which was the high at the time to the high on 07.01.09 which was the high before the last leg down it is 63 days in total, from that high to the low on 10.03.09 it is 62 days in total, and from the low on 10.03.09 to tomorrow 11.05.09 it is 63 days. Coincidence or cycle? Would be interested to hear anyone else's views on that and if we might be coming close to a top even if it is temporary.

 

[wonderrman]

Re: XAO Analysis

I thought I would post this chart from Decision Point.com that shows an ascending wedge forming on the SP500.



The comments are here http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090508_aw.html.

It also applies to the all ords,



From the article,

Bottom Line: The ascending wedge pattern on the S&P 500 chart is a failry reliable signal that a short correction is due at any time. While it will make the bears happy at first, I don't think the correction will last more than a few days.

wonder.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Coincidence or cycle? Would be interested to hear anyone else's views on that and if we might be coming close to a top even if it is temporary.

scroll back i have my views be they right or wrong

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well after my bullish rant on the weekend today we had a somewhat bearish bar. Look at the high volume attempts to get through the resistance and the price action at the same time - yellow circles on the chart.

We are now seeing some selling into strength imo and I think we are really going to struggle to push through the resistance at 3950 ish. The question now is how severe will the next leg down be? The first level to be tested will be the green line at about 3730ish and then 3500-3600. A close under 3500 will see me bearish again.

I still think we will need to see some distribution if we are to retest the lows but who knows.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Re: XAO Analysis

We are now seeing some selling into strength imo and I think we are really going to struggle to push through the resistance at 3950 ish.

Yep. Above 4000 looks off the cards for the moment. How far down will we go? No idea. I'm not bearish about this yet though.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeh, that level holds the key here IMO.

HUGE seller up there, this was talked about in Ivants SPI thread.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeh, that level holds the key here IMO.

HUGE seller up there, this was talked about in Ivants SPI thread.

Hey MRC, when you say HUGE seller up there, what exactly do you mean? Do you mean there is someone selling the index at that level which keeps it from pushing through? Doesn't the index move with the individual SPs of the companies that make it up, eg BHP, WBC, WOW, etc? In which case, how can one huge seller stop the index from pushing through that level if the individual SPs are all moving up? Hope this isn't a stupid question

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey MRC, when you say HUGE seller up there, what exactly do you mean? Do you mean there is someone selling the index at that level which keeps it from pushing through? Doesn't the index move with the individual SPs of the companies that make it up, eg BHP, WBC, WOW, etc? In which case, how can one huge seller stop the index from pushing through that level if the individual SPs are all moving up? Hope this isn't a stupid question

Hey Jono,

Na, not a stupid question, a fair one.

Yes, when I mean a huge seller, I mean a huge seller of index futures (top 200 or SPI).

Which, as you say, is comprised by individual stocks, so if someone is buying individual stocks, then it will move higher. However, they are always moving together with slight discrepancies, so if individual stock prices move too high (this means the cash index will also be high) and the futures index is kept down, then arbs will start buying futures and selling stocks. Bringing it back into line at that level, without pushing through.

But if individual stocks are bought up heavily, too heavily for the guys holding the index, then yes, it could break the level.

 

[Sunder]

Re: XAO Analysis

Futures down 92 points at the moment.

The next leg down starts now?

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Futures down 92 points at the moment.

The next leg down starts now?

started a few posts back m8

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Futures down 92 points at the moment.

The next leg down starts now?

It's been called several times now. Started about 2 weeks ago, but it's just kept coming back. We'll see. Good luck Nun!

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's been called several times now. Started about 2 weeks ago, but it's just kept coming back. We'll see. Good luck Nun!

Thankyou Kennas , and yes you are right it has been a mighty strong market of late and its gunna take more than this lil hiccup to kill that ...... on toes for a strong rebound . as well as shorts mentioned i also have a cupla longs in play also and keeping them normal trailing stops at the ready , none have been hit as yet so no reason for battlestations as yet either

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Great short if those blue lines fail.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey MRC,

Is this your kind of play? Double bottom. Potential break above the mid point high.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey MRC,

Is this your kind of play? Double bottom. Potential break above the mid point high.

Not at the moment Tradeism, I would more likely be looking for a false break in this environment.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some random lines to consider.