Victorian Fires

[Smurf1976]

We were just talking about the 'stay and fight' or 'pack and go' options that people in SA are given. I dont get the 'stay and fight' thought. OK, some people are lucky, or more likely the fire misses them; but if you are caught within the full rage, you have no chance. Can't people see the bare black stubble that remains when your house is in the direct line. Whether your house is saved from bushfire is more due to good luck than whether you are there to fight it because once you are in the path of the firestorm there is nothing you can do.

The advice given in Tas is that you should stay and defend the property only if you have properly prepared. Otherwise, evacuate well before (hours) the fire arrives.

Properly prepared means things like having cleared all vegetation for quite some distance around the house, made the house itself as fire proof as possible, having proper clothing, having a means to put out spot fires etc.

The reasoning behind the advice is that if you've done everything right then the most useful thing you can do is put out any spot fires that occur in the house roof or inside the house (from radiant heat). If you've properly prepared, it's those small fires that are likely to destroy the house rather than it becomingpart of the main fire front.

I should point out that the vast majority of homes are not prepared in the way recommended and in that situation evacuating would be a sensible idea. I'm not sure about the other states, but in Tas if you call the TFS they will send you a DVD which explains exactly what you need to do to be properly prepared etc. It's a lot more than just filling a few gutters with water and raking up the leaves...

 

[sam76]

We were just talking about the 'stay and fight' or 'pack and go' options that people in SA are given. I dont get the 'stay and fight' thought. OK, some people are lucky, or more likely the fire misses them; but if you are caught within the full rage, you have no chance. Can't people see the bare black stubble that remains when your house is in the direct line. Whether your house is saved from bushfire is more due to good luck than whether you are there to fight it because once you are in the path of the firestorm there is nothing you can do.

So surely it is best to evacuate well before it gets to that stage. Like, hours and hours before and not the last minute. They interviewed someone last night who said that they had always planned to stay and fight. But then the shocking reality of what that actually meant, hit home and they evacuated.

RIP to all those people who have lost.

A well prepared house is fantastic protection for a family in the event of a fire.

Of course the only 100% guarentee is leaving well before any threat.

There are three ways a house willl burn.

Embers
Radiant heat
Direct flame contact

It's is very possible to protect your home from all three but you need to be prepared.

You need a written plan that includes the strengths and weaknesses of your property, jobs to be performed by members of the house etc...

You need to have prepared your property for the possibility of a fire - it's no good staying and defending if you haven't readied your house for attack.

People don't realise that the fire front is only there for 5-10 minutes.

The times leading up to the front are spent patrolling and putting out embers.

go inside when it gets too hot

once the front has passed go outside and begin putting any fires on/around your house out.

Dont forget the roof space.

It takes a decent amount of time for a fire to take hold in your house - long enough for a well prepared person/s to put them ouit safely

House protect people and people protect houses.

 

[sam76]

lol

great minds, hey Smurf.

 

[sam76]

I have access to fire plans that include;

If you stay

pre season checks
day of the fire
fire front
after the front has passed

and

If you decide to leave


i'm more than happy to send people infrmation kits if requested.

You will, of course, have to adapt them to your own situations/environment

 

[GumbyLearner]

The 'neighbour' principle is great. If they are willing to listen.

 

[M34N]

There are currently 8 going fires over 1000ha.


Further update on the Marysville township:
We understand that everyone is safe in Marysville and are assembled at Gallipoli Park. Emergency response crews are working on getting emergency services into the town; however crews were experiencing difficulty gaining access to the town due to trees falling across the road. People are reminded to remain at Gallipoli Park until advised by DSE or CFA authorities that it is safe to leave. Vic SES and the Red Cross delivered food and drink to the residents and fire fighters who are sheltering at the Gallipoli Park relief centre early this morning. Residents will be escorted from the area when it is safe to do so.

Marysville is wiped out, picture below from ABC TV. I was driving home last night and heard the news on the radio and have been keeping an eye on this since the morning; devastating to say the least. The whole Kinglake-Kilmore area is fairly dense with forest and bush so it's no surprise so much has gone up so quickly.

Good luck to those remaining and RIP to those that have died.

 

[Prospector]

Yes, I agree with the 'Properly Prepared' issue guys. The thing was this woman was properly prepared (she was wearing overalls, the hat etc) and their house was prepared according to the principles, but she said when she heard the roaring noise, saw the thick black wall of smoke and saw the flames, she realised she wasn't mentally prepared for what it meant. So she left and was lucky she didnt get trapped.

So how about the mental preparation to stay, no-one seems to think of that.

 

[MrBurns]

The whole town on Marysville ?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/

I wonder how much of this is because greenies have prevented burning off/back.

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm not sure about the other states, but in Tas if you call the TFS they will send you a DVD which explains exactly what you need to do to be properly prepared etc.

Those not living in Tas and wanting the DVD can download it here (free).

The other state fire brigades might also have something similar (?) if you want a physical DVD rather than a download.

http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/mysite/Show?pageId=tfsDVDDownloads

 

[prawn_86]

**Mod note**

Abusive posts will not be tolerated in any situations. We understand the debates can get quite heated but please keep it friendly

 

[CAB SAV]

Stone the crowds, thought I was seeing things. Surely the Bendigo race meeting being held today is not in the Bendigo in Vic. ****e, I luv a punt, but.

 

[M34N]

The whole town on Marysville ?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/

I wonder how much of this is because greenies have prevented burning off/back.

Yep looks like the whole town (or at the least the vast majority) is now gone, very fortunate no-one has been killed there. Another picture attached, from another article at the Herald Sun:

There's also an online map thanks to Google Maps showing all the fire locations. Sad to report 35 confirmed dead now, I think after this aftermath they should seriously consider enforcing towns be evacuated if there is ever a fire threat, this is getting very tragic and having so many people die is just too much to ignore and do nothing about.

I also just came back from a drive to my parents place in Berwick, there has been road closures all across Narre Warren North and Harkaway with police diverting traffic to other local streets, you can see burnt grassland near houses in Narre Warren North/Harkaway and it's indeed very eerie, some of these areas have gone from bush to urbanised within the past few years and a lot of houses I suspect were very unprepared and came literally metres from homes.

 

[Smurf1976]

Time for both sides to calm down I think. Let's get the fires out first.

THEN we need to take a proper, scientific look at how such disasters can be avoided or at least made less likely in the future.

Based on past studies, the outcomes of this will probably upset conservationists somewhat on an in principle basis. But it's speculation as to whether or not they'll agree or not with any recommendations made.

I can't really comment on the burning off issue, it's not something I know enough about. But based on past fires and studies that have been done, it can be said that anyone who has let the lawn go brown etc has made themselves a sitting duck in the event of a fire. That's certainly been what happened elsewhere (CSIRO research a few years ago).

So if there's a political debate coming out of all of this, and I'm not wanting to start one now, then it's going to be about increasing the water supply and putting a lot more on gardens in addition to any issues with burning off etc.

But let's get the fires out first. Then we'll worry how to prevent it happening again later (but that's not to say the message should be forgotten).

As for Marysville, it's a terribly sad situation to see a whole town destroyed. Not much more I can say really other than that I hope something is being done to help those who have survived. Is government doing enough? Or is there a need for some sort of donations to help the people affected?

The whole situation sounds awfully like what happened in Vic and SA in 1983 or in Tas in 1967. Total destruction.

 

[Prospector]

Maybe that is what has saved SA so far? We do a lot of controlled burn-offs in the hills and vulnerable areas.

 

[MrBurns]

Maybe that is what has saved SA so far? We do a lot of controlled burn-offs in the hills and vulnerable areas.

Yes thats what I was talking about before being interupted by, well I cant say or I'll get another infraction notice but use your imagination.

You either have to clear the area or burn back/ slash well in advance.

Greenies have prevented a lot of bush clearance and in some cases have been responsible for the result, I'm sure the subject will be brought up in the media.

when the forecast was for 45+C the area should have been cleared, the authorities know full well what might happen and I think they let everyone down.

 

[Smurf1976]

when the forecast was for 45+C the area should have been cleared, the authorities know full well what might happen and I think they let everyone down.

Too late by that stage to be burning off since the last thing you want is a fire already started. If we're going to burn off then it needs to be done well before there is an actual fire threat.

 

[MrBurns]

Too late by that stage to be burning off since the last thing you want is a fire already started. If we're going to burn off then it needs to be done well before there is an actual fire threat.

Yes perhaps they'll learn for next time like they should have learned from the last time, 40 peope dead, it's just crazy.
In the meantime they should have evacuated or had early warning systems in place, I dont believe that in 2009 with all we know that loss of mass lives couldnt have been avoided.

 

[Smurf1976]

Yes perhaps they'll learn for next time like they should have learned from the last time, 40 peope dead, it's just crazy.
In the meantime they should have evacuated or had early warning systems in place, I dont believe that in 2009 with all we know that loss of mass lives couldnt have been avoided.

Totally agreed with what you're saying. Problem is, most people don't take these things seriously until there's an outright disaster.

Humans forget quickly and thus we keep repeating the same mistakes over and over. We've had fires, unnecessary deaths, infrastructure shortages and so on for decades. As soon as we fix it, people take it for granted and stop doing what's needed to keep it fixed. Then it breaks again and we're back to fires, water rationing and all the rest.

There are thousands of examples. Humans do whatever is easiest at the time and thus fail to avoid entirely foreseeable problems. Those who are exceptions, who are calling for action, tend to be ridiculed or outright opposed.

The time to prepare for fires is when there isn't a fire or an immediate threat of one. Just like the time to have built new water infrastructure is when there's lots of rain. Just like you need to improve your health while you're still reasonably healthy. Just like we need to fix power, transport etc while it's still working. Just like we needed to address the financial crisis when the insane borrowing and speculating was happening instead of waiting for it to blow up. Etc.

 

[bunyip]

25 dead now maybe 40.

Somethings not right here, with all we know about bushfires how can this happen surely someone should have told these people to get out, ordered them out.

You can order them out all you want, but who's going to police it? The police and the fire authorities are run off their feet at such times....no way could they get around to every home and ensure that every single person obeyed a media-relayed directive to abandon their homes.
Sometimes a vehicle with a loud-speaker drives through the town and orders everyone out. But here again, how does it ever get policed....it's just not possible.
There will always be some people who are convinced they can save their houses if they stay with them. Others who think, correctly in some cases, that staying home is safer than trying to get out via traffic-clogged roads that have burning trees falling over them.
People have been found dead in burnt out cars that got trapped while trying to flee.

 

[grace]

Lots of innocent lives lost. Controlled burning in winter - let it happen please. How many more lives need to be lost before they wake up. More extreme heat conditions yiyo coming. Government needs to act here.