ADY - Admiralty Resources

[lioness]

This looks like it may turn up this week as it has gone back to its bottom range and the bollinger bands are squeezing together now indicating a move but it may be down not up?

Anyone care to comment from a chart perspective. I am sitting on losses now and the trouble is every time it goes up people just dump it along with daytraders. So is there any hope on this one??

They are due this week to announce 10 year contracts on iron ore which will give it a nice pump and then later a dump.

 

[roland]

Hi lioness, my understanding is that the dudes that picked up all the shares at 17.5 cents are selling off whenever it gets to 18 cents, hence the huge resistance at 18.

Personally, I think the bottom is somewhere between here and 16, in other words we have been sitting on the bottom for a while.

As you know, I stopped out, grabbed a few bucks and have been buying back in.

My current average is .205 and have an order sitting there at 17. Once the Shougang financing is sorted we should see some upward movement. Also I don't really want to miss out on the demerger.

 

[lioness]

Hi lioness, my understanding is that the dudes that picked up all the shares at 17.5 cents are selling off whenever it gets to 18 cents, hence the huge resistance at 18.

Personally, I think the bottom is somewhere between here and 16, in other words we have been sitting on the bottom for a while.

As you know, I stopped out, grabbed a few bucks and have been buying back in.

My current average is .205 and have an order sitting there at 17. Once the Shougang financing is sorted we should see some upward movement. Also I don't really want to miss out on the demerger.

Yes Roland, that demerger is very soon as stated by the quarterly announcement stating SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS has been made. I suspect once Shougang contracts are finalised this will follow shortly after.

 

[gxshen]

Yes Roland, that demerger is very soon as stated by the quarterly announcement stating SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS has been made. I suspect once Shougang contracts are finalised this will follow shortly after.

Anyone has any idea on when Shougang contracts will be finalized? The last update seemed to state that it should be in the last week. But so far no news from them, only the news that they keep on diluting the shares by issuing news notes. I feel a little bit disppointed with the delay and the management though the company looks promising in the long term. The management keep on promising, but does not make any real progress...... Hope they will figure out soon.

 

[lioness]

Anyone has any idea on when Shougang contracts will be finalized? The last update seemed to state that it should be in the last week. But so far no news from them, only the news that they keep on diluting the shares by issuing news notes. I feel a little bit disppointed with the delay and the management though the company looks promising in the long term. The management keep on promising, but does not make any real progress...... Hope they will figure out soon.

So do I. So do I, so do I, so do I etc etc etc etc etc


So do I. So do I, so do I, so do I etc etc etc etc etc

 

[gxshen]

Some shipment news on the ady website. The shipment will significantly improve the company's cashflow.

"TWO SHIPMENTS IN THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. The vessel MV Cape Nelson departed from the Caldera Port in Chile to China on Sunday the 3rd of August, loaded with 27,640 tonnes of iron ore fines. The vessel MV Abhkazia is currently being loaded at an approximate rate of 10,000 tonnes per day and its departure to China is scheduled for this week."

In addition, hope Shougang's contract will be finalized in the coming weeks. The grade of the ore is quite high (>62%), which is favored by Chinese companies so much. The SP must rocket soon!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

The grade of the ore is quite high (>62%), which is favored by Chinese companies so much. The SP must rocket soon!

Just so you know its actually 17%-20% Fe Magnetite Iron Ore that is being beneficated at a nearby existing benefication plant thus bringing the final saleable product to a 62% + Fe DSO standard


But yes you are right the final product is 62% Fe + I just added my comments because it made me stand up and take note on how company changing it can be to have an existing plant/infrastructure in the area regardless of the low grade or small size magnetite deposit

 

[aleckara]

Any thoughts for today's massive drop? What has changed. Is taking money out such a big no-no? 10000000000000000000000words

I have no idea to be honest. An announcement of a Shougang deal was due out some time ago and hasn't eventuated. They keep drawing on additional funds. At best there is a high negative sentiment on this stock.

Should have sold awhile ago. Don't see much point now though. Hate to say it but the always 'impending' good news kept me in. Now I have to wonder why the delays.

 

[gxshen]

saw the update. Another beautiful bubble with no actual progress, which really makes me sick. The management keeps on blowing these bubbles!

 

[EasternGrey1]

Doesn't it just show that deals with the chinese are difficult. They take everything to the brink. BHP, Rio and Vale have difficulty getting deals signed before shipments start, so no wonder ADY does too.

I thought the ADY announcement was pretty positive - two shipments completed, two bigger shipments coming, financing nearer to being finalised, and cash flow situation improving.

Sure I would like all problems to just go away, but this looks OK to me. I bought some more after the ann. Time will tell.

 

[aleckara]

Doesn't it just show that deals with the chinese are difficult. They take everything to the brink. BHP, Rio and Vale have difficulty getting deals signed before shipments start, so no wonder ADY does too.

I thought the ADY announcement was pretty positive - two shipments completed, two bigger shipments coming, financing nearer to being finalised, and cash flow situation improving.

Sure I would like all problems to just go away, but this looks OK to me. I bought some more after the ann. Time will tell.

I think ADY has possibly moved from a cash negative position to a breakeven position should they be able to keep the shipments going. To be honest the lithium side has been managed much better than the I/O side and I have to wonder whether the company would have been better off without the I/O.

The fact that they are at a breakeven position means that the chance of the lithium business getting the chance to break off has increased. That is the major change in the latest announcement. Otherwise it outlines possibilities for the company but no certainities.

 

[lioness]

I think ADY has possibly moved from a cash negative position to a breakeven position should they be able to keep the shipments going. To be honest the lithium side has been managed much better than the I/O side and I have to wonder whether the company would have been better off without the I/O.

The fact that they are at a breakeven position means that the chance of the lithium business getting the chance to break off has increased. That is the major change in the latest announcement. Otherwise it outlines possibilities for the company but no certainities.

Aleckara, please explain why the demerger has a greater chance now??

I don't see the iron ore at breakeven point, they still need to install crushers and port facilities etc etc.

And why has the demerger taken so long. They state in their quarterly they expect the demerger to be finalised before end of September, so allowing for a 30 day EGM to be called, that would mean the demerger needs to take place within weeks. They have missed every deadline ever stated so don't worry, I am sure it will take much longer.

I never thought I would see this at 13 cents, if it went below 10 cents it wouldn't surprise me now. Maybe ANZ is accumulating it a lower entry to buy back PT's shares they owe him after the Opes Prime disaster. Just a thought.

 

[gxshen]

Always missing deadlines is the one that most disppoints me. They have lost credits to me. i would not believe in them any more. I prefer to not seeing any beautiful bubbles or promises that they keep on making, but real progresses (even minor).

 

[aleckara]

Aleckara, please explain why the demerger has a greater chance now??

I don't see the iron ore at breakeven point, they still need to install crushers and port facilities etc etc.

And why has the demerger taken so long. They state in their quarterly they expect the demerger to be finalised before end of September, so allowing for a 30 day EGM to be called, that would mean the demerger needs to take place within weeks. They have missed every deadline ever stated so don't worry, I am sure it will take much longer.

I never thought I would see this at 13 cents, if it went below 10 cents it wouldn't surprise me now. Maybe ANZ is accumulating it a lower entry to buy back PT's shares they owe him after the Opes Prime disaster. Just a thought.

Well they are pulling in revenue. Considering their previous cash flow statement projections for future spending, at 'their current rate of production' they are making some money with the August shipments assuming the costs of mining are included in that figure - a large assumption I know. If anyone can clarify would be great. Of course any expansion is going to have increased cost but hopefully increased economies of scale. I consider expansions new projects per se, building on existing ones and value them when buying shares on that basis.

My point was that they may not have to raise more capital should the shipments keep happening just to keep the status quo. Of course to expand they might have to. My biggest fear was that the company would go bust before the demerger wasting the Li and Potash assets and their opportunity. Hopefully that explains my opinion however misinformed it may be.

Share price looking low at the moment. Wonder how low it can go?

 

[lioness]

Well they are pulling in revenue. Considering their previous cash flow statement projections for future spending, at 'their current rate of production' they are making some money with the August shipments assuming the costs of mining are included in that figure - a large assumption I know. If anyone can clarify would be great. Of course any expansion is going to have increased cost but hopefully increased economies of scale. I consider expansions new projects per se, building on existing ones and value them when buying shares on that basis.

My point was that they may not have to raise more capital should the shipments keep happening just to keep the status quo. Of course to expand they might have to. My biggest fear was that the company would go bust before the demerger wasting the Li and Potash assets and their opportunity. Hopefully that explains my opinion however misinformed it may be.

Share price looking low at the moment. Wonder how low it can go?

Share price is suggesting exactly thay, it will be in receivership shortly.

If they don't demerge very soon, it will be all over for this company.

I would give them 4 weeks before that happens.

 

[gxshen]

Even daytraders are not interested in this stock. I will not be surprised that it will drop below 10 cents.

 

[aleckara]

Share price is suggesting exactly thay, it will be in receivership shortly.

If they don't demerge very soon, it will be all over for this company.

I would give them 4 weeks before that happens.

I sincerely hope your wrong. As much as I don't want to give too much credence to their announcement they state that they plan to repay the loans. Lets assume then that the loans are paid solely on their cash flows.

My back of the hand calc is thus:
Interestingly they burnt $30,000,000 in operation in the year till now minus the revenue they received from sales (which wasn't many). They according to the progress report earnt $7,140,000 in August now that their shipments are starting to run. Assuming every month is the same that comes to $85mil yearly revenue. To be realistic I expect $50mil (times by 0.6 just to assume that not every month will be like this) so break even.

The share price plummenting I think has come from investors expecting a lot more in the updates and holding simply because they expected a signing. It didn't eventuate but overall I think things are indeed better than they were a couple of months ago.

I think most buyers cant see a bottom and as such won't invest until they do.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Share price is suggesting exactly thay, it will be in receivership shortly.

If they don't demerge very soon, it will be all over for this company.

I would give them 4 weeks before that happens.

If you're going to make sensationalist downramping claims, perhaps you should provide support for your view, otherwise best not to comment.

 

[petermikel]

Is it true that the shortsellers are about finished and a short squeese may be about to occur.
Should ADY receive the funding as it suggests it will this will most deffinately be the catylist for a sharp move higher

 

[rub92me]

Share price is suggesting exactly thay, it will be in receivership shortly.

If they don't demerge very soon, it will be all over for this company.

I would give them 4 weeks before that happens.

Care to explain how share price movement is related to receivership? They must have been bankrupt 2 years ago then, when shareprice was lower than this . Demerger has even less to do with their prospects. They can only spin-off the Lihium once they have secured a prepayment contract, which hasn't happened yet. Reasons for that have been explained in detail by ADY management in previous announcements.