Palladium

[refined silver]

Well I just found a Platinum thread 5 months back, and no Palladium thread at all!!

Well Palladium has just broken above $400 for the first time in few years is looking strong too.

A couple of background articles -

The Case for Palladium
http://www.kitco.com/ind/balarie/aug042005.html

Platinum - Dark Horse Bright Future
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Barisheff/apr042007.html

Much of what is said about Platinum also applies to Palladium which used to be the more expensive of the two. They are can both be used in catalytic converters, and the high price of Pd a few years back caused the cheaper Pt to be substituted. I think we might see a reversal again, since the prices have reversed.

 

[refined silver]

Palladium is also used for jewellry, in fact in China, Palladium jewellry is more popular than Platinum and world wide the Pd jewellry market is about 60% the size of Pt.

 

[Temjin]

I will add another article to the thread.

Palladium the Rodney Dangerfield of Metals
http://www.marketoracle.net/Article1326.html

My question remain is, Palladium is as much as a commondity and as a "currency to hedge against inflation" as Silver and Platinum, have their prices been artifically surpressed with massive concentrated shorts as well and as much as the silvers? Will need to dig some COT reports to look further.

 

[rederob]

I will add another article to the thread.

Palladium the Rodney Dangerfield of Metals
http://www.marketoracle.net/Article1326.html

My question remain is, Palladium is as much as a commondity and as a "currency to hedge against inflation" as Silver and Platinum, have their prices been artifically suppressed with massive concentrated shorts as well and as much as the silvers? Will need to dig some COT reports to look further.

Both palladium and platinum owe much to use in catalytic converters.
If vehicles head down the electric path, then not cat conversion.
Over the next few years, both metals look strong in demand terms.

 

[refined silver]

Both palladium and platinum owe much to use in catalytic converters.
If vehicles head down the electric path, then not cat conversion.
Over the next few years, both metals look strong in demand terms.

The US has not woken up to deisel cars yet, only the traditional deisel trucks. Hence the green cars are the Prius etc. In Europe most of the research is into diesel and for example the Diesel Mini gets >80mpg on the open road, better than the Prius, and also surpisingly beats it on its own turf in the city for mpg, and has exactly the same emissions. Plus of course a significant advantage in performance (and styling )

Palladium and Pt are both mainly used for Cat conversion (about 50% of demand). With Tata motors in India starting making cars for $2,000, and between China and India, the demand for cars (and Cat Con.) looks like heading up despite the price of oil.

 

[refined silver]

Palladium just broke through $500.

With such a tiny supply - $7-8moz/year, which is 1/10 of gold mine supply, and with most coming from South Africa which has long-term power supply problems, with Russia as next biggest supplier, those who need Palladium are going to have to pay for it.

 

[Temjin]

I'm drolling at my simulated account having brought several contracts of palladium at $414...sign..hahah

 

[projack]

Seems like the persicus metal market getting too much distorted between paper and physical price. You have to pay premiums on all the persicus metals, but nothing like palladium.
I used to buy palladium bullions from a US company Southern Coins http://www.scpm.com/goldsilverbullion.php
and used to pay a small reasonable premiums on the spot price. These days the premium is nearly double the spot price. If this is not market manipulation then what is it? The distortion here is getting ridicules, nothing to do with reality.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Seems like the persicus metal market getting too much distorted between paper and physical price. You have to pay premiums on all the persicus metals, but nothing like palladium.
I used to buy palladium bullions from a US company Southern Coins http://www.scpm.com/goldsilverbullion.php
and used to paid a small reasonable premiums on the spot price. These days the premium is nearly double the spot price. If this is not market manipulation then what is it? The distortion here is getting ridicules, nothing to do with reality.

Interesting, what is the best play on palladium. excuse the pun.

gg

 

[projack]

Probably the best paly is to try get the real stuff close to the spot price.
In 2006 when the spot price was $250 I paid $270. Now the spot price is in the $160s and the same seller wants $320.

 

[projack]

Tough question. These are unprecedented times. Surely, a widening between physical price and paper price reads like bold billboard graffiti. That invites a queer arbitrage, to buy in one location and sell in another, of course practiced only by the privileged insider.

 

[sinner]

Unattributed plagiarism is unappreciated.

"Surely, a widening between physical price and paper price reads like bold billboard graffiti. That invites a queer arbitrage, to buy in one location and sell in another, of course practiced only by the privileged insiders like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan."

-Jim Willie

 

[24 Karat]

Anyone got any ideas on the spread for buying physical palladium? The only type I've come across are the Pamp Suisse bars. Are these OK?

I've read the articles posted and it seems that the bulk of palladium is used in the automobile industry. With the push for greener cars, wouldn't this decrease the demand for palladium (and platinum) and make it cheaper?

 

[Ann]

Both palladium and platinum owe much to use in catalytic converters.
If vehicles head down the electric path, then not cat conversion.
Over the next few years, both metals look strong in demand terms.

I have pulled this thread up with a very prophetic comment from Rederob back in 2008.

The Uses of Palladium
The motor industry uses up most of the palladium produced in the world today with the manufacturing of catalytic converters that convert harmful gases emitted by vehicle engines such as nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons into less-harmful substances such as water vapour, carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Other uses for palladium include the following:
- Blood sugar testing strips
- Dentistry
- Watch making
- Jewellery
- Medicine
- Purification of hydrogen
- Electronics
- Fuel cells that combine hydrogen and oxygen to produce water, heat and electricity
- Aircraft engine spark plugs
- Surgical instruments
- Electrical contacts
- Professional transverse flutes
- Bullion value with ISO currency codes of 964 and XPD that places it alongside only three other metals with similar codes, these being; platinum, silver and gold.
- In soldering materials and plating of electronic components.
- Palladium chloride was once used to treat tuberculosis but it came with considerable side effects and was eventually replaced by more effective treatment.
http://mininglink.com.au/natural-resource/palladium

Palladium Reaches Another Record as JPMorgan Sees More Upside
By
Rupert Rowling
and
Marvin G Perez

January 17, 2019, 10:48 PM GMT+11 Updated on January 18, 2019, 6:09 AM GMT+11
Palladium held gains after rocketing through $1,400 an ounce for the first time, extending its gravity-defying rally even amid signs that global vehicle sales are slowing.

The precious metal, primarily used in the auto industry for catalytic converters, has surged more than 60 percent since the middle of August. The bull run has been driven by an acute shortage of immediate supply as car manufacturers scramble to get a hold of the metal to meet more stringent emission controls.
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/art...-as-breakneck-rally-continues?srnd=markets-vp


So far I can only find one Australian company who has any sort of interest in Palladium, Panoramic Resources (PAN) with their Panton PGM project. https://panoramicresources.com/panton-pgm-project/

Then there is the other scenario, the new gold is Palladium. It is also nudging $US 1300 I bet it breaks through $1300 before gold unless Platinum becomes the cheaper substitute. Both Palladium and Platinum are components in EVs unlike gold which is pretty much just a bling thing. You just have to love this stuff! Spins my wheels.

That was a recent quote of mine from the Gold thread, sure enough, Palladium blasted through the $1300 level no worries.

....and a chart.

 

[rederob]

I have pulled this thread up with a very prophetic comment from Rederob back in 2008.

The Uses of Palladium
The motor industry uses up most of the palladium produced in the world today with the manufacturing of catalytic converters that convert harmful gases emitted by vehicle engines such as nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons into less-harmful substances such as water vapour, carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Other uses for palladium include the following:
- Blood sugar testing strips
- Dentistry
- Watch making
- Jewellery
- Medicine
- Purification of hydrogen
- Electronics
- Fuel cells that combine hydrogen and oxygen to produce water, heat and electricity
- Aircraft engine spark plugs
- Surgical instruments
- Electrical contacts
- Professional transverse flutes
- Bullion value with ISO currency codes of 964 and XPD that places it alongside only three other metals with similar codes, these being; platinum, silver and gold.
- In soldering materials and plating of electronic components.
- Palladium chloride was once used to treat tuberculosis but it came with considerable side effects and was eventually replaced by more effective treatment.
http://mininglink.com.au/natural-resource/palladium

Palladium Reaches Another Record as JPMorgan Sees More Upside
By Rupert Rowling and Marvin G Perez

January 17, 2019, 10:48 PM GMT+11 Updated on January 18, 2019, 6:09 AM GMT+11
Palladium held gains after rocketing through $1,400 an ounce for the first time, extending its gravity-defying rally even amid signs that global vehicle sales are slowing.

The precious metal, primarily used in the auto industry for catalytic converters, has surged more than 60 percent since the middle of August. The bull run has been driven by an acute shortage of immediate supply as car manufacturers scramble to get a hold of the metal to meet more stringent emission controls.
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/art...-as-breakneck-rally-continues?srnd=markets-vp

So far I can only find one Australian company who has any sort of interest in Palladium, Panoramic Resources (PAN) with their Panton PGM project. https://panoramicresources.com/panton-pgm-project/

That was a recent quote of mine from the Gold thread, sure enough, Palladium blasted through the $1300 level no worries.

....and a chart.

View attachment 91440

Palladium is mostly a byproduct metal so I don't know of Oz stocks that will get leg up from the price spike. Panoramic have Panton and Thunder Bay PGM resources available but neither is operational.
About 80% of the market is in auto and electronics. I expect auto makers will prefer platinum now that palladium is overpriced. It takes time to adapt so I reckon high prices could stay for a few more months.
Pundits are suggesting a big pullback. Looking ahead at price expectations for 2019, firms polled by FocusEconomics estimate that the average palladium price next year will be US$1050. The most bullish forecast for the year comes from Citigroup Global Markets, which is calling for a price of US$1175; meanwhile, Liberum Capital is the most bearish with a forecast of US$941.

 

[Ann]

Palladium is mostly a byproduct metal so I don't know of Oz stocks that will get leg up from the price spike. Panoramic have Panton and Thunder Bay PGM resources available but neither is operational.
About 80% of the market is in auto and electronics. I expect auto makers will prefer platinum now that palladium is overpriced. It takes time to adapt so I reckon high prices could stay for a few more months.
Pundits are suggesting a big pullback. Looking ahead at price expectations for 2019, firms polled by FocusEconomics estimate that the average palladium price next year will be US$1050. The most bullish forecast for the year comes from Citigroup Global Markets, which is calling for a price of US$1175; meanwhile, Liberum Capital is the most bearish with a forecast of US$941.

Thank you very much Rob, that is very interesting. Do we have any platinum producers you could suggest? Looking at the Platinum chart, it appears to have been falling since 2011. Although it may have reached a floor at around its current $800 level. In your opinion why would Palladium have taken off as it has, leaving Platinum languishing? Supply/availability/speculators?

 

[rederob]

Thank you very much Rob, that is very interesting. Do we have any platinum producers you could suggest? Looking at the Platinum chart, it appears to have been falling since 2011. Although it may have reached a floor at around its current $800 level. In your opinion why would Palladium have taken off as it has, leaving Platinum languishing? Supply/availability/speculators?

Panoramic has PGM (palladium & platinum) resources, but who else has I do not know.
I recall that some years back platinum priced itself out of catalytic converters, and palladium crept in to replace it. Looks like a mirror reversal is now going to occur.


Speaking of which, I cannot reverse the dates and overlay on your palladium chart of 5 years ago, but their respective prices would almost be the same if I could.
If I were a betting man then I think a reasonable punt would be for both metals to consolidate under and around $1000.
(By the way, from what I have gathered it has been the rush to clean up vehicle emissions that put palladium into backwardation. That will unwind as the year stretches out.)

 

[Ann]

Panoramic has PGM (palladium & platinum) resources, but who else has I do not know.
I recall that some years back platinum priced itself out of catalytic converters, and palladium crept in to replace it. Looks like a mirror reversal is now going to occur.


Speaking of which, I cannot reverse the dates and overlay on your palladium chart of 5 years ago, but their respective prices would almost be the same if I could.
If I were a betting man then I think a reasonable punt would be for both metals to consolidate under and around $1000.
(By the way, from what I have gathered it has been the rush to clean up vehicle emissions that put palladium into backwardation. That will unwind as the year stretches out.)

Awesome, thanks Rob! You have inspired me to see if I can do a comparison of Palladium with Platinum on IC charts. I think there is a way but it is not something I have ever needed to do before. I will leave it until tomorrow. I am getting a bit tired tonight.

 

[debtfree]

Hi @Ann ,
Let's say you have a watchlist that includes Palladium and Platinum.
1 - Bring up the chart of Palladium in I/C
2 - Go to File - Select New Project - Name it let's say, Compare Palladium - Click OK
3 - Go to Indicators - Go to Price Comparison - Go down to Watchlists - Go to the Watchlist that contains Platinum - Select Platinum - Press the >> to add it to the chart
That should do it
All done

Hope this helps

 

[Ann]

Hi @Ann ,
Let's say you have a watchlist that includes Palladium and Platinum.
1 - Bring up the chart of Palladium in I/C
2 - Go to File - Select New Project - Name it let's say, Compare Palladium - Click OK
3 - Go to Indicators - Go to Price Comparison - Go down to Watchlists - Go to the Watchlist that contains Platinum - Select Platinum - Press the >> to add it to the chart
That should do it
All done

Hope this helps

Thank you debtfree, I just saw your suggestion now, I managed to wrangle IC into submission this time but will need to review how to do it again, so eventually your advice will become a great help.

This is the comparison chart for Palladium and Platinum from 1995 on a daily basis. I have drawn some support and resistance lines just to see what I can learn from a duel comparison, it may offer some interesting insights I had never known about before. I get pretty excited when I find something new on a chart to watch. Thanks for the challenge Rob.