Trading gurus and trading courses

[tech/a]

Let me preface this reply with the statement that I believe you are both a successful trader and a successful educator (in my view an extreme rarity)...but...I strongly disagree with your point.

There are many, many examples of shoddy spruikers taking a fortune from the general public for valueless "education". The willingness of the general public to part with enormous sums of money appears in thread after thread on this forum.

$20,000 x 100 suckers - not a bad way to make a few years wages in a short space of time. After all, if it costs $20,000, reasons Joe or Jill Public, it MUST be "the" secret, and MUST be worth far more than a book priced at $35 or a CD priced at $500.

Sure.

The same could be said for Mechanics,Tradesmen,Financial planners,Tour operators,Car Salesmen,Weight Reduction Programmes. The list just goes on.

The general public are their own worst enemy.
Fools and their money are easily parted---whats a fool doing with money in the first place--I say!

Simply learning due diligence FIRST will save you all sorts of stress in all aspects of life--let alone trading!
People just dont and often wont take responsibility for their own stupid actions! Its always someone elses fault---that double crossing sweet talking money grabbing salesguy!---whos REALLY at fault?

 

[Bobby]

Sprung!

Gee ' Tech --- have to give you a thumbs up for that reply

 

[MichaelD]

Simply learning due diligence FIRST will save you all sorts of stress in all aspects of life--let alone trading!

Agreed, but let's put up some scenarios to consider why this isn't necessarily so simple or practical;

You are on holidays interstate and you get a severe sore throat which threatens to spoil your holiday. You decide to consult a GP whom you haven't seen before. Do you do due diligence on the GP before seeing them? Do you check their qualifications? Do you quiz them on medical matters to test their bona fides before seeing them?

No.

You make certain presumptions about their competence based on the fact that they are holding themselves out to be a GP and you believe the regulatory system works.


Now consider this.

You are poor and live from day-to-day on a meagre subsidence wage. Suddenly, your rich great aunt dies and leaves you $1,000,000 in cash. You have no idea how to handle this amount of money, but you do have this vague idea that you'd better not waste it. You decide to consult a financial planner. After all, they are the experts and are in a regulated environment. They are in a nice suit and in a nice office. They have a nice car. They seem to know what they are talking about. You might even know a few friends who will vouch for how well they have done with this particular advisor.

Suddenly, you are heavily leveraged into the peak of a bull market, the market has just dropped 50% and there's this stockbroker on the phone screaming about "margin calls". You are broke.


People are not rational. They take all manner of short cuts in decision making. Mostly, these short cuts are suitable adaptations (assuming all GPs are competent). Sometimes they are not (assuming all financial advisers are competent).

Sure, we could perform due diligence on every decision we need to make, but nothing would ever get done as the decisions would take too long to make due to the research required.

Here's an interesting thought for you to ponder; humans evolved emotions to allow us to make rapid decisions when speed was essential (fear -> run away from sabre tooth tiger - versus consider risk of tiger in front of you -> oops, you've been eaten). Mostly, emotional decisions work, but when they don't, they fail spectacularly.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Mostly, emotional decisions work, but when they don't, they fail spectacularly.

Like it.

 

[lindsayf]

lindsayf,
Don't confuse validation of a sample with the journey of trading. 100 trades - depending on variables, will probably be enough sample to validate a positive expectancy. But that is not what I'm saying. Probability Theory, not backtesting, will dictate a losing streak. How ever you choose to back test and use Monte Carlo, forward test, back test, in sample, out sample, blah blah blah, the end result is probability theory is the absolute answer that should be anticipated. It may never occur but being in readiness for it will allow you to be realistic.

Many people on this forum promote in sample/ out sample testing. I think that's all bollocks.

1. Understand WHY your system makes money
2. Understand, via probability theory, what can really go wrong

Then you have realistic outcomes to consider.

In sample/out sample is rubbish unless you need to rely on some form of optimization or curve fit to make a method work. To me that's a recipe for failure.

But, getting back to the question at hand, a sample of 100 trades may suggest 10 losses in a row, but probability theory will suggest 21 is possible. You need to go with expecting 21.

I'm not sure if this makes sense. Happy to try to clarify better.

Thanks for the reply Nick but I am not with you; it is my query that if 100 or 50 or whatever amount of trades will only validate a sample but not a method...how do you ever develop any confidence in how you trade..and if you tweak your method to supposedly improve it in some way, how do you know you are not simply data/curve fitting..which is a less than worthwhile thing to do I gather from what you are saying? Bit confused here..thks

 

[Cartman]

People are not rational. They take all manner of short cuts in decision making.

humans evolved emotions to allow us to make rapid decisions when speed was essential.

Mostly, emotional decisions work, but when they don't, they fail spectacularly.

Very poignant post Michael -------- Did u have a 'light bulb' moment when the crap finally dropped off the branches, or was yr trading salvation slow and methodical? ---------

Might make an interesting thread ----- The transition of a Trader from 'struggling' to 'successful' ---- and what was the catalyst for it.

 

[gazelle]

is it that WD Gann was apparently the guru of of wall street, reportedly taking $50m out of the financial markets (Present value) yet he has spent copious amounts of time writing about 20+ books on trading strategies ?

And what 20+ books are you refering to ? Could you please list these books as I would be very interested in obtaining them ? Just for your interest you Turkey Gann released 6 - 7 books some of them are coded like TTTA so Turkeys like you are kept locked out from what he was doing . Only Gann had precision trading techniques and the full detail is outlined in The Ticker Interview if you could be bothered reading it ? And by the way he kept an office on Wall Street for 25 years and operating planes over this time and that was back in the 30s , a far cry from today . Ask yourself Turkey have you really reseached Gann ?

 

[nunthewiser]

Might make an interesting thread ----- The transition of a Trader from 'struggling' to 'successful' ---- and what was the catalyst for it.

MY catalyst was a succession of large losses and holding stocks that were getting deeper and deeper into the red .

a wise fella once told me to treat my investments /trades the same way i would my businesses (offshoots/employees/suppliers)... IF there not performing in the way intended to piss them off and move on . no tears , no hard words just a basic cold calculating monetary desicion ( unless ulterior motive involved re biz, which is another chapter as still classed as a gain and now im rambling ).

not here to be a charity with any of my ventures in bizzness and when you can realize its not going to plan and cann it in the blink of an eye,and move onto the next, is the moment you can realize small losses are merely a means to get to the gains

look im no typist and i cant convey what i mean as well as all these other knowledgeable chaps but do know at the end of the day its just a numbers game and if treated as such without all the hooplah of being scared to take a few quick losses , one should survive just fine, maybe even make a buck

im just a simple ole nun from WA so what would i know about guru-ism


"Nip it in the bud " may have been the moral to the story perhaps

 

[Bobby]

from 'struggling' to 'successful' ---- and what was the catalyst for it.

NO ! no no - more Elliott Wave analysis

 

[Cartman]

MY catalyst was a succession of large losses and holding stocks that were getting deeper and deeper into the red .

Holding on to 'hope' until it becomes 'hopeless' is a great teacher eh Nun! ----- pretty sure most of us have been down that road once or twice

Maybe no more Elliott Wave analysis

LOL ------ I already got into hot water on the EW thread Bob, ---- Reckon if punters looked at cycles rather than waves theyd be a lot more enlightened --------- there is only two waves ----- Up and Down ---- how many cycles in each Wave?? ----- Unlimited!!

 

[joe8489]

is it that WD Gann was apparently the guru of of wall street, reportedly taking $50m out of the financial markets (Present value) yet he has spent copious amounts of time writing about 20+ books on trading strategies ?

And what 20+ books are you refering to ? Could you please list these books as I would be very interested in obtaining them ? Just for your interest you Turkey Gann released 6 - 7 books some of them are coded like TTTA so Turkeys like you are kept locked out from what he was doing . Only Gann had precision trading techniques and the full detail is outlined in The Ticker Interview if you could be bothered reading it ? And by the way he kept an office on Wall Street for 25 years and operating planes over this time and that was back in the 30s , a far cry from today . Ask yourself Turkey have you really reseached Gann ?

ok, firstly, i love turkey, its my favourite


secondly, thanks for your insight. I also appreciate the enouraging tone of your response, has a warm fuzzy feel to it.


thirdly, miss gazelle, a couple of ponts for you. Read closely and try and follow:

1.do you mind if i call you by the name of an animal? I will chose Monkey

2. So, Monkey, I stand corrected, it wasnt 20+ ,you;re right. I wrote that in the heat of the moment. So it was 7 books, or 6, or 5, whatever, did you understand my point? The point was that if someone is so proficient at trading and making lost of money, why would they spend a large part of their career writing about it and divulging their secrets? Seems like he spent alot of time writing books. Dr Alexander Elder , a reputable trader and author who wrote about trading pychology, stated in his book (and it was documented elsewhere) that he interviewed WD Gann's son back in early 90's and his son said that Gann died with no more than a $100K estate (still alot of money in todays terms) and that he made most of his cashflow through education. Now i am not sure if that is true or not , apparently it is, but i take everything with a pinch of salf, but noentheless it makes you beg the question, doesnt it Monkey??

3. Monkey, I never stated in any of my post that I have read his books or researched him. And why is researching a trader/educator/so called guru important in being able to pose a generic question about the merit of educators on a public forum, Monkey? Im not with you there?

4. The whole point of joining such a forum is to create discussion, generate interest and to learn about others' insights in the trading world. Which is what I am doing Monkey. (I am hoping there wont be other morons, sorry, monkeys like you who will pop up from under their rocks, and attempt to ruin the experience for new comers, becuase if that is the case, then i will be on my merry way). I was never making a definitive statement about Gann, Monky, hence the number of question marks in my long-winded and verbose initial post (much like this one). Do you understand Monkey? But Nick R and others did address my cynisism and skeptisism - without anger or malice I might add - and I then replied back saying "why thank you, its cordially appreciated, I now have a more open mind". Is that ok for you Monkey?

5. Now, Monkey, you hungry? I have some lady finger banana's right here, let me feed them to you. Would be my pleasure

6. I am sorry if I touhed a nerve Monkey. I did sense much anger in your post and I hope you have calmed down now. I have a suggestion:

--- why dont you pick up one of Gann's books, maybe try TTTTTTTTAAATATATATTTA by W.D Gann. (whatever that acronym means - i am not the enlightened one so I am not even going to try to attempt), take a nice stroll to the beach, sit down and wait for the a lunar eclipse to appear. You could be there a while, but it will be worth it. Then wait, keep waiting, I want you to wait for venus , mars and pluto to align. Then wait for 7 shooting stars, once this happens then the God Of Stars will tap you on the left shoulder 3 times, you MUST gentley turn aroumd (dont look him in the directly in the eyes - whatever you do) and he will proceed to tell you when the SPI, HSI and DOW, will bottom. Once that happens, come back to this forum, tell us how you went and share with us if you are still an angry person, or I whether you are at peace with the stars.

All the breast, Monkey

Your friend, Turkey

 

[GumbyLearner]

ok, firstly, i love turkey, its my favourite


secondly, thanks for your insight. I also appreciate the enouraging tone of your response, has a warm fuzzy feel to it.


thirdly, miss gazelle, a couple of ponts for you. Read closely and try and follow:

1.do you mind if i call you by the name of an animal? I will chose Monkey

2. So, Monkey, I stand corrected, it wasnt 20+ ,you;re right. I wrote that in the heat of the moment. So it was 7 books, or 6, or 5, whatever, did you understand my point? The point was that if someone is so proficient at trading and making lost of money, why would they spend a large part of their career writing about it and divulging their secrets? Seems like he spent alot of time writing books. Dr Alexander Elder , a reputable trader and author who wrote about trading pychology, stated in his book (and it was documented elsewhere) that he interviewed WD Gann's son back in early 90's and his son said that Gann died with no more than a $100K estate (still alot of money in todays terms) and that he made most of his cashflow through education. Now i am not sure if that is true or not , apparently it is, but i take everything with a pinch of salf, but noentheless it makes you beg the question, doesnt it Monkey??

3. Monkey, I never stated in any of my post that I have read his books or researched him. And why is researching a trader/educator/so called guru important in being able to pose a generic question about the merit of educators on a public forum, Monkey? Im not with you there?

4. The whole point of joining such a forum is to create discussion, generate interest and to learn about others' insights in the trading world. Which is what I am doing Monkey. (I am hoping there wont be other morons, sorry, monkeys like you who will pop up from under their rocks, and attempt to ruin the experience for new comers, becuase if that is the case, then i will be on my merry way). I was never making a definitive statement about Gann, Monky, hence the number of question marks in my long-winded and verbose initial post (much like this one). Do you understand Monkey? But Nick R and others did address my cynisism and skeptisism - without anger or malice I might add - and I then replied back saying "why thank you, its cordially appreciated, I now have a more open mind". Is that ok for you Monkey?

5. Now, Monkey, you hungry? I have some lady finger banana's right here, let me feed them to you. Would be my pleasure

6. I am sorry if I touhed a nerve Monkey. I did sense much anger in your post and I hope you have calmed down now. I have a suggestion:

--- why dont you pick up one of Gann's books, maybe try TTTTTTTTAAATATATATTTA by W.D Gann. (whatever that acronym means - i am not the enlightened one so I am not even going to try to attempt), take a nice stroll to the beach, sit down and wait for the a lunar eclipse to appear. You could be there a while, but it will be worth it. Then wait, keep waiting, I want you to wait for venus , mars and pluto to align. Then wait for 7 shooting stars, once this happens then the God Of Stars will tap you on the left shoulder 3 times, you MUST gentley turn aroumd (dont look him in the directly in the eyes - whatever you do) and he will proceed to tell you when the SPI, HSI and DOW, will bottom. Once that happens, come back to this forum, tell us how you went and share with us if you are still an angry person, or I whether you are at peace with the stars.

All the breast, Monkey

Your friend, Turkey

What I want from any "guru" on this thread is how do the banks conduct due diligence on THEIR own books?

 

[Trembling Hand]

1.do you mind if i call you by the name of an animal? I will chose Monkey

5. Now, Monkey, you hungry? I have some lady finger banana's right here, let me feed them to you. Would be my pleasure

Ha ha hahahahhahahah!!

And gazelle Jesus! Whats your prob :screwy:

 

[Nick Radge]

Yes, Michael, I stand corrected. I had not looked at it from that angle.

 

[tech/a]

Agreed, but let's put up some scenarios to consider why this isn't necessarily so simple or practical;

You are on holidays interstate and you get a severe sore throat which threatens to spoil your holiday. You decide to consult a GP whom you haven't seen before. Do you do due diligence on the GP before seeing them? Do you check their qualifications? Do you quiz them on medical matters to test their bona fides before seeing them?

No.

You make certain presumptions about their competence based on the fact that they are holding themselves out to be a GP and you believe the regulatory system works.


Now consider this.

You are poor and live from day-to-day on a meagre subsidence wage. Suddenly, your rich great aunt dies and leaves you $1,000,000 in cash. You have no idea how to handle this amount of money, but you do have this vague idea that you'd better not waste it. You decide to consult a financial planner. After all, they are the experts and are in a regulated environment. They are in a nice suit and in a nice office. They have a nice car. They seem to know what they are talking about. You might even know a few friends who will vouch for how well they have done with this particular advisor.

Suddenly, you are heavily leveraged into the peak of a bull market, the market has just dropped 50% and there's this stockbroker on the phone screaming about "margin calls". You are broke.


People are not rational. They take all manner of short cuts in decision making. Mostly, these short cuts are suitable adaptations (assuming all GPs are competent). Sometimes they are not (assuming all financial advisers are competent).

Sure, we could perform due diligence on every decision we need to make, but nothing would ever get done as the decisions would take too long to make due to the research required.

Here's an interesting thought for you to ponder; humans evolved emotions to allow us to make rapid decisions when speed was essential (fear -> run away from sabre tooth tiger - versus consider risk of tiger in front of you -> oops, you've been eaten). Mostly, emotional decisions work, but when they don't, they fail spectacularly.

This is a problem for everyone.
Even the best laid plans do go hay wire from time to time and sometimes through no fault of your own.
Your employer goes broke.
Your advisor has been ill advised.(Storm).
You see the wrong Doctor,or he is the right Doctor but gets it wrong.

But to the Topic
Personally I really do think that there is the opportunity to evaluate and have enough time and information to make an informed decision with regard to Trading gurus and trading courses.
Failure to do so is really your fault.

 

[dutchie]

I am finally a trade guru.

A guru in the sense that I know what is a bad trade. It has taken me a long time and many attempted trades to

come to this position.

The trick is to reverse everything you might of done.

They say that 95% of all traders fail - therefore I came to the conclusion that if all these failed traders

reversed every decision that they thought they where going to do then they would all be successful.

I'll give you an example - if a newbie trader thought "I think BHP is going up, I should buy 1000" - his trading

method should be to go 1000 short!

It stands to reason if 95% of traders fail then if they reverse there initial ideas (go short if they intially

thought long, stay in if they thought to sell, sell if they thought to stay in and vice versa) - you get the

picture, then they must end up being successful.

A dart board can also be very helpful.

I also initially had a vey bad system. I would trade this course, trade this advisor, trade this guru, trade this

article, trade this recommendation, trade this course, trade this system, trade this boook, trade this market and

trade this stock/option/future/xxxx. Unfortunately my win expectancy was only 5% - i.e. 95% bad trades.

The moral to the story then is:

1. that there are no gurus, courses etc that a newbie should buy as there is a 95% chance of failure and lost

capital.

2. Do your own research and find the good 5% before spending any money - be sure before you leap, spend some time

on the internet, forums, question other successful traders - don't be impatient (to lose your money).

3. Research, research, research - you can get an awful lot of information about trading without spending a cent

(other than a computer and internet connection).

4. Newbies should read 1. again.


Good research one and all (especially you newbies)

Cheers

dutchie

 

[rossw]

joe8489, hahahaha, very funny and clever post

 

[Naked shorts]

I think that trading courses really have nothing to stand on. All the information you need is already out there on the internet. The reason why they are still in business must be because most people dont already know that.

@ nunthewiser: Good post, I to can agree with you that losing real money is a big catalyst. I am not a consistently profitable trader yet, but after losing real money, and reviewing what happened, it became apparent how consistently profitable trading is accomplished and why.

p.s. I am now back to trading a demo account, creating a consistently profitable system.

 

[tech/a]

So pretty soon we will have Doctors/Airline Pilots and Tradesmen fully trained over the Net.

Great

 

[Ashsaege]

ok, firstly, i love turkey, its my favourite


secondly, thanks for your insight. I also appreciate the enouraging tone of your response, has a warm fuzzy feel to it.


thirdly, miss gazelle, a couple of ponts for you. Read closely and try and follow:

1.do you mind if i call you by the name of an animal? I will chose Monkey

2. So, Monkey, I stand corrected, it wasnt 20+ ,you;re right. I wrote that in the heat of the moment. So it was 7 books, or 6, or 5, whatever, did you understand my point? The point was that if someone is so proficient at trading and making lost of money, why would they spend a large part of their career writing about it and divulging their secrets? Seems like he spent alot of time writing books. Dr Alexander Elder , a reputable trader and author who wrote about trading pychology, stated in his book (and it was documented elsewhere) that he interviewed WD Gann's son back in early 90's and his son said that Gann died with no more than a $100K estate (still alot of money in todays terms) and that he made most of his cashflow through education. Now i am not sure if that is true or not , apparently it is, but i take everything with a pinch of salf, but noentheless it makes you beg the question, doesnt it Monkey??

3. Monkey, I never stated in any of my post that I have read his books or researched him. And why is researching a trader/educator/so called guru important in being able to pose a generic question about the merit of educators on a public forum, Monkey? Im not with you there?

4. The whole point of joining such a forum is to create discussion, generate interest and to learn about others' insights in the trading world. Which is what I am doing Monkey. (I am hoping there wont be other morons, sorry, monkeys like you who will pop up from under their rocks, and attempt to ruin the experience for new comers, becuase if that is the case, then i will be on my merry way). I was never making a definitive statement about Gann, Monky, hence the number of question marks in my long-winded and verbose initial post (much like this one). Do you understand Monkey? But Nick R and others did address my cynisism and skeptisism - without anger or malice I might add - and I then replied back saying "why thank you, its cordially appreciated, I now have a more open mind". Is that ok for you Monkey?

5. Now, Monkey, you hungry? I have some lady finger banana's right here, let me feed them to you. Would be my pleasure

6. I am sorry if I touhed a nerve Monkey. I did sense much anger in your post and I hope you have calmed down now. I have a suggestion:

--- why dont you pick up one of Gann's books, maybe try TTTTTTTTAAATATATATTTA by W.D Gann. (whatever that acronym means - i am not the enlightened one so I am not even going to try to attempt), take a nice stroll to the beach, sit down and wait for the a lunar eclipse to appear. You could be there a while, but it will be worth it. Then wait, keep waiting, I want you to wait for venus , mars and pluto to align. Then wait for 7 shooting stars, once this happens then the God Of Stars will tap you on the left shoulder 3 times, you MUST gentley turn aroumd (dont look him in the directly in the eyes - whatever you do) and he will proceed to tell you when the SPI, HSI and DOW, will bottom. Once that happens, come back to this forum, tell us how you went and share with us if you are still an angry person, or I whether you are at peace with the stars.

All the breast, Monkey

Your friend, Turkey

Gann shame... my guru is Gandalf the grey. He is both wise and knowledgeable.