ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

interesting, but what volumes are we talking about, as if you talking just a few thousand then its neither here nor there, for me i hold considerable stock levels, i cant sell today nor could i buy the levels i hold without making some serious damage in the share price.... hypothetically speaking

 

[prawn_86]

Well im only a student so lets assume small levels.

Admitedly a large holding would take time to buy, or affect the price when dumped, but thats not really what we are testing here

 

[resourceboom]

Lets say a smallish 50K shares... They could have been picked up today for 37c for mr hypothetical 1

Interesting to see which news mr hypothetical 2 will purchase at, eg: SL, K3, K1H, other.... ? (or is it just 1st news)

Sorry if this is a bore (or silly) for current holders.

 

[prawn_86]

Not 1st announcement. It will be one Mr Hypothetical 2 chooses to trade.

And for simplicity lets say Mr Hypothetical 2's money is in a Bankwest account earning 7%pa from today.

So Mr H 1 currently has 50000 shares initial outlay = $18500

Mr H 2 has $18500 in his bank account waiting to buy on his choice of announcement

**Both Mr H's will be overseas for 2 weeks so Mr H 2 is hoping there isnt an ann in that time**

 

[sam76]

Not 1st announcement. It will be one Mr Hypothetical 2 chooses to trade.

And for simplicity lets say Mr Hypothetical 2's money is in a Bankwest account earning 7%pa from today.

So Mr H 1 currently has 50000 shares initial outlay = $18500

Mr H 2 has $18500 in his bank account waiting to buy on his choice of announcement

**Both Mr H's will be overseas for 2 weeks so Mr H 2 is hoping there isnt an ann in that time**

This is going to be an interesting test for those who A) are in the share already and B) are sitting on the sidelines waiting for an announcement and entry.


I'm looking forward to tracking this as it progresses.

Good idea fellas

 

[Agentm]

in terms of hypotheticals, i like the idea, i can assure you that my money is on adi and stayin there!!

i cant make money hypothetically, its up to each person to put their b*lls on the line and follow thier own research..

no one expected this long a wait for a well to be completed, and its now at its lowest ebb.. its time for the volume to return imho..

imho first run up will be now as the kunde news breaks. then its full steam ahead for kennedy..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Why sell that is my question ?
Why would ADI have waited all this time drilled another well acquired more acerages if SL 1 was a duster please explain.
Now I am keen for some answers like every other holder and feel it is overdue but I wont be selling until we get those answers which surely must be close.
Waiting on frac end of Jan then I will be expecting news

 

[BBand]

Why sell? because the stock is in a downtrend, and has been since around October.

If you think ADI will ultimately be successful, wait for it to prove itself and then buy back in,(at a lower price).

In the mean time make your money work elsewhere.

Price will have to increase approx 100% just to get back to where it was in September.

Trade what you see - not what you hope.

Nothing is certain in this game - it would just be like the thing for ADI to take off to-morrow - but the probability factor is negative

Good luck
Peter

 

[Agentm]

good luck to those selling.. although none chose to today.. no daytraders on this stock at the moment, that will change as news flows are expected soon..

i am remaining for the big picture, it was for a result in either NT or kennedy i went in for, and remained in and accumulated as i discovered conocophillips was even more keen on this and has spent a lot of time and effort to develop the play. first horizontal results in a very short time.

i have not seen conoco drop ther focus yet, and as long as they are trying i am staying in..

share price day to day may look tired on no news, but we all know news is expected in only days to a week away.. imho its closer than most are expecting.. low volumes to zero turnover is the order of the day as no one is the wiser on when the kunde 3 news will break from the "closed well" there..

 

[banska bystrica]

Bad news on Kennedy will see the stock at 20c. Good news and there is still plenty of time to get set. Even if it spikes to 60c, it is better to wait. I must say the complete lack of buyers willing to step up to the plate makes one wonder if they have got anything over in "Sugarland".

 

[Lucky_Country]

What I will say about ADI is over the last 18 months we have drilled 3 well NT SL and K1 and havent a had a result good or bad from one of them thats what I think is very frustrating and maybe even unaceptable but hopefully this will change in day weeks as Agentm says !

 

[banska bystrica]

Trading at 33.5c.
Not real indicative of having anything significant over in Sugarland. Low to mid 20's might get me for a few as Yemen in 2009/10 could be interesting.

 

[gdaf]

One can only assume they are still on holidays. The longer this thing goes on without a word, the longer the shares will languish. Mind you - I think the bottom's in. EKA have been at rock bottom for some time now, so you could argue that the same was bound to happen to ADI without any news. This is a very sour investment at the moment, but I guess one could argue (here I go again) that anybody buying shares in July last year was in for a pretty horrible time (ok, bring out the success stories to rub it in). Honestly - I'm going to hold this for as long as it takes them to produce from texas or tell us they don't have anything there. My thinking is that if texas is a dud, it'll probably drop to the low 20s, and then as time goes on, and their other projects come into focus, they may find some new investment. If texas comes through with the goods though, we'll all be looking back at these days thinking why oh why didn't I pick up that parcel of 100k at .40c..... If they don't update the market tomorrow, I'm emailing the directors - enough is enough.

 

[Gspot]

Trading at 33.5c.
Not real indicative of having anything significant over in Sugarland. Low to mid 20's might get me for a few as Yemen in 2009/10 could be interesting.

This is what worries me, that if it WERE so promising, and good news around the corner, then why the sp is so low?
With so many JVP's, any good news, wouldn't be secret for long.

 

[Agentm]

This is what worries me, that if it WERE so promising, and good news around the corner, then why the sp is so low?
With so many JVP's, any good news, wouldn't be secret for long.

85k traded this year, if i placed an on market buy for 85K the sp would reach .60..

as for leaks,, the wells are "closed wells" nothing is allowed out, its more than your job if you do!!

anyone looked at kunde 1 closely?

Using Oil Geochemistry to Determine the Origin of Light Oils and Condensates

Hydrocarbon liquids which at surface conditions are high gravity (e.g., ~ 45-60 oAPI) may be either a light oil (volatile oil) or a gas condensate. A true condensate is a hydrocarbon LIQUID at surface conditions that is a GAS at reservoir conditions, while a volatile oil is a liquid at both surface and reservoir conditions. Two, general “rules of thumb” for distinguishing between a volatile oil and a gas condensate include:​

(1) When the GOR of a produced petroleum is > 3,000 cu ft of gas/ barrel oil (cfg/bo), then the liquid is a condensate (i.e., exists as a gas in the reservoir; Kingston, 1990).

(2) Condensates typically contain < 12.5 mole %C7+, while volatile oils typically contain > 12.5 mole% C7+ (Danesh, 1998).


maybe if you some of you guys read the completion reports on kunde 1 you would see the numbers (not the volume on production) but the actual chemistry of the condensate is pretty well as good as it can possibly get..

its all about the liquids... how many time has that been said??

conoco is not dealing with trash here, they bought out burlington and would have discarded this project if it didnt come up to scratch..

imho its potentially up to a world class find, a world class discovery and worthy of keeping my cash in it..

its up to each of us to respect someones investment and not do as so many do here and talk the share down without any idea of what they are talking about.. to call the suagrkane project right now as a fail is a big call in light of the infrastructure and development so far undertaken.. big call indeed..

if your investing for a fast return,, dont invest in adi, its about investing for the outcome of the exploration in hand.. once the news comes out in the coming days i am of the belief people will not be keen to sell many at all too cheaply..

all imho and dyor..

goog luck in the next few weeks if your lucky enough to be holding..

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well it wouldnt suprise me if ADI were already fraccing K1 as they have a way of suprising interested followers.
Just late last year SL was fracced with no great outcome and supposedly moving to the next zone then a week later they were getting oil from z3.
Agree sp is so frustrating and delays have just been made too suit everyone on this play but hopefully all shareholders holding through this stage will be rewarded.
Lets just see what there next announcement say cant imagine it will be too far away.

 

[fflintoff]

Latest Adelphi drilling program on the ARQ website.

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/web/operations/drilling-program.php

 

[jackohelp]

85k traded this year, if i placed an on market buy for 85K the sp would reach .60..

as for leaks,, the wells are "closed wells" nothing is allowed out, its more than your job if you do!!

anyone looked at kunde 1 closely?

Using Oil Geochemistry to Determine the Origin of Light Oils and Condensates

yes, i have. posted some stuff on advfn for the vermin to get their teeth into!

do you have any latest production figures?

 

[Agentm]

Well it wouldnt suprise me if ADI were already fraccing K1 as they have a way of suprising interested followers.
Just late last year SL was fracced with no great outcome and supposedly moving to the next zone then a week later they were getting oil from z3.
Agree sp is so frustrating and delays have just been made too suit everyone on this play but hopefully all shareholders holding through this stage will be rewarded.
Lets just see what there next announcement say cant imagine it will be too far away.

nothing is happening at kennedy.. nor sugarloaf. currently conoco are very keen to get kunde 3 and rocket ship baker on production immediately.

as far as zone 3 goes, they did the pressure build up tests a month ago, and imho they have the data they needed now and the formation has been tested as much as anyone needs to. the zone 2 region is to be tested post kennedy completion.

full focus on the horizontals currently, once they finish the frac at kunde 3 in the near term they will announce the flow rates after its put on production.

the idea of these wells is to make them extremely profitable, and the sorts of flow rates they are conditioning these wells to achieve are designed to pay the wells off in a matter of months. imho the wells could be put on production right now with what they have in them.. but the chalks are over pressurised and have high matrix porosity and other factors that make it very attractive to frac them and boost them up.. lets wait and see what the frac can deliver!!

if you think about how long its taken conoco to frac the kunde 3 well, with all its complications, then you must understand they are treating this deadly seriously..

unlike the conoco projects in the lower 48 like piceance, the burlington project has only really slipped in the last year or so, 2006 was when burlington and conoco combined. this project went from a look into the edwards to a discovery that was completely unexpected. if you search through conoco releases over the last 2 years you will not find a single reference to this play anywhere officially, yet they have invested a small fortune there and from what i hear fully intend to increase that dramatically in the very near term..

although the general public is mostly unaware of the conoco program there, its not missed by the industry itself, it prompted pioneer to drill at meeks and see what they were looking at.. they can later look at driling some horizontals there on their leases once they see how conoco is doing.. as are a number of lease holders in the sugarkane region.. including our jvp.. but there is a close watch on the conoco works in the industry..

 

[barney]

nothing is happening at kennedy.. nor sugarloaf. currently conoco are very keen to get kunde 3 and rocket ship baker on production immediately.

as far as zone 3 goes, they did the pressure build up tests a month ago, and imho they have the data they needed now and the formation has been tested as much as anyone needs to. the zone 2 region is to be tested post kennedy completion.

full focus on the horizontals currently, once they finish the frac at kunde 3 in the near term they will announce the flow rates after its put on production.

the idea of these wells is to make them extremely profitable, and the sorts of flow rates they are conditioning these wells to achieve are designed to pay the wells off in a matter of months. imho the wells could be put on production right now with what they have in them.. but the chalks are over pressurised and have high matrix porosity and other factors that make it very attractive to frac them and boost them up.. lets wait and see what the frac can deliver!!

if you think about how long its taken conoco to frac the kunde 3 well, with all its complications, then you must understand they are treating this deadly seriously..

unlike the conoco projects in the lower 48 like piceance, the burlington project has only really slipped in the last year or so, 2006 was when burlington and conoco combined. this project went from a look into the edwards to a discovery that was completely unexpected. if you search through conoco releases over the last 2 years you will not find a single reference to this play anywhere officially, yet they have invested a small fortune there and from what i hear fully intend to increase that dramatically in the very near term..

although the general public is mostly unaware of the conoco program there, its not missed by the industry itself, it prompted pioneer to drill at meeks and see what they were looking at.. they can later look at driling some horizontals there on their leases once they see how conoco is doing.. as are a number of lease holders in the sugarkane region.. including our jvp.. but there is a close watch on the conoco works in the industry..

Appreciate your research as always Agent. Was that you that just bought another $20,000.00 worth at 6 cents above the market offer? First time in a few days that has happened ................ Those who have picked this up at under 40 cents at this stage of developement have done very well I think. Like many, I'm well down on paper, but sitting tight and waiting patiently ....