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The strong selling hints at profit taking from recent gains by a nervous market? Or is there something that I don't know?
ADY - Admiralty Resources
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I bought the stock at todays peakI was hoping this will cross the resistance this time... Oh well now it is hold for me...
Hey Mayk .... if it makes you feel any better i bought in at 0.545 just before it peaked on its last rapid rise in July ... and in hindsight my timing could have been better but IMHO over the long term its not going to make much difference at all.
Just be patient and while ADY appears to get traded quite a bit and therefore can spike and dip a fair bit, however, the general trend in SP over the last 12 mths has seen it rise from around the 8c level to where it is today.
Iron ore is one of the projects that will get ADY going but keep in mind the potentially world class lithium resource that is being developed. Of course, DYOR!
annual report - wow
hi all, very impressed after reading the annual report.
noticed for instance that they are planning to be shipping upwards of 5 million tonnes of ore annually. not sure if i am correct but MGX is aiming for 10 and the merged gbg/sdl entity will do around 60. share price of MGX was 2.30 yesterday - i think.
they will have around 20% of the world market on lithium - that is a huge resource with amazing potential.
i could not make sense of their position in terms of how much money they have, etc. they seem to be a little cash poor especially after the recent purchases. anyone have thoughts on this?
very impressed shareholder.
hi all, very impressed after reading the annual report.
noticed for instance that they are planning to be shipping upwards of 5 million tonnes of ore annually. not sure if i am correct but MGX is aiming for 10 and the merged gbg/sdl entity will do around 60. share price of MGX was 2.30 yesterday - i think.
they will have around 20% of the world market on lithium - that is a huge resource with amazing potential.
i could not make sense of their position in terms of how much money they have, etc. they seem to be a little cash poor especially after the recent purchases. anyone have thoughts on this?
very impressed shareholder.
rub92me
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Re: annual report - wow
For the iron ore port development they will need some financing, which won't be that hard to get given the revenue that they are creating.
For the Lithium they will get lump sum prepayments for a 10 year 10% take-off agreement.
I wouldn't worry too much about the cash position. They will have another 6 million coming in from options conversion before end of November.hi all, very impressed after reading the annual report.
noticed for instance that they are planning to be shipping upwards of 5 million tonnes of ore annually. not sure if i am correct but MGX is aiming for 10 and the merged gbg/sdl entity will do around 60. share price of MGX was 2.30 yesterday - i think.
they will have around 20% of the world market on lithium - that is a huge resource with amazing potential.
i could not make sense of their position in terms of how much money they have, etc. they seem to be a little cash poor especially after the recent purchases. anyone have thoughts on this?
very impressed shareholder.
For the iron ore port development they will need some financing, which won't be that hard to get given the revenue that they are creating.
For the Lithium they will get lump sum prepayments for a 10 year 10% take-off agreement.
I really like the price movement on friday. It seems to have tested the resistence of .43/44 and rebound with some force before the massive sell off at the close.
I thought those of you who are holding short term and who bought above 0.5 might find some use in the following comments from a broker i read:
"ADY - Admiralty Resources NL – 49.5c
-Comments from 14 May 2007-The current price target of 26c is on the verge of being met. Should a further upside breakout occur from this level the calculated price target is 51c. Considering the Stock has moved from 10 cents to 25 cents ( 250% ) then a further 100% is not out of the Question.
-The Weekly chart of ADY shows the price target being met on the week of 2 July 2007 with a major corrective move during the recent market volatility.
-The rickshaw man at the high shows rejection of a high price with Strong move back to 19c where the price tested the long term trend line (3).
-It should be noted the low of 19c is a higher low than the June low.
-This highlights the methodology behind drawing accurate lines.
-Recently the stock has rallied with a higher low being set at 32c and a further breakout underway.
-A price target of 64c is showing at the recent high price resistance area, look for more consolidation in this area.
-Primary trend is UP.
-For traders an initial stop would be taken at the support point of 43c. "
I thought those of you who are holding short term and who bought above 0.5 might find some use in the following comments from a broker i read:
"ADY - Admiralty Resources NL – 49.5c
-Comments from 14 May 2007-The current price target of 26c is on the verge of being met. Should a further upside breakout occur from this level the calculated price target is 51c. Considering the Stock has moved from 10 cents to 25 cents ( 250% ) then a further 100% is not out of the Question.
-The Weekly chart of ADY shows the price target being met on the week of 2 July 2007 with a major corrective move during the recent market volatility.
-The rickshaw man at the high shows rejection of a high price with Strong move back to 19c where the price tested the long term trend line (3).
-It should be noted the low of 19c is a higher low than the June low.
-This highlights the methodology behind drawing accurate lines.
-Recently the stock has rallied with a higher low being set at 32c and a further breakout underway.
-A price target of 64c is showing at the recent high price resistance area, look for more consolidation in this area.
-Primary trend is UP.
-For traders an initial stop would be taken at the support point of 43c. "
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I second the translation request. I think im wrong but it sounds like the demerger will leave 2 seperately listed entities (one the Iron Ore project and one the Lithium project) and each ADY share will become one in each of the 2 entities?
for every 3.47215 ady shares you will get 1 ady share. however, you will also get 1 share in the new entity that they create which they are calling rincorn lithium ltd.
what i do not know is whether this is good or bad in terms of an investment. sellers are dumping at the moment but this is usuall with annoucements of this kind.
what i am unsure about is how many rincorn lithium ltd shares will be offered and how much they market will value them.
also, i have no idea what their iron ore venutre on its own would be worth?
what i do not know is whether this is good or bad in terms of an investment. sellers are dumping at the moment but this is usuall with annoucements of this kind.
what i am unsure about is how many rincorn lithium ltd shares will be offered and how much they market will value them.
also, i have no idea what their iron ore venutre on its own would be worth?
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im in the same boat as you nikki, i think a lot of people are unsure how to take this news and so are selling nonetheless.
on a brief read they indeed intend splitting the co into two entities - one for iron ore, one for lithium.
prior to doing that they will be undertaking a share consolidation, so that for every 3.47215 shares you have you will now have 1 share, by doing this they will reduce the number of ADY shares from over 960 million to 280 million, thus the 3.47215 ratio
further for every 1 ADY share you hold post consolidation you will receive 1 gratis (ie free) share in the newly listed ADY-lithium entity
if you believe in both of the iron ore and lithium projects in their own right it would arguably be a logical progression for the co and as they indicate in the ann, good for shareholders as it unlocks the potential of each project separately
for eg, if you hold 34,722 ADY shares, they will become 10,000 ADY shares, then you will receive 10,000 (gratis) ADY-lithium shares
so you will have 10,000 ADY-iron ore shares and 10,000 ADY-lithium shares
as there will be less ADY shares on issue after the consolidation, the price of the ADY shares should (all things being equal) initially (and before the lithium spin-off [and this depends on how much of the lithium project the market has already factored into the current ADY price]) increase such that the current market cap is the same as the post-consolidation market cap
cheers
PS I see you worked out the ann whilst I was posting
rub92me
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It's neither good nor bad at this stage until we know at what price the issue will be valued.can someone translate their annoucement for me????? i have no idea whether this is good or bad!
1) Your existing holding is consolidated from 3.47215 to 1. I.e. if you now hold 100,000 shares, then you will end up with 28,801 shares (assuming they will round up). Presumably the shareprice will be multiplied by the same factor so your netposition is unchanged.
2) You will get 1 share in the new entity Rincon Lithium Limited for each ADY share you hold after consolidation. I.e. in this example you will get 28,801 shares.
I think the drop in price today is caused by the production delays that were also announced..
Hello, and nice to meet you all...
Have just given ADY a call, and how we are interpreting the announcement atm is correct. We get 1 ADY share for every 3.47215 shares we currently hold, plus 1 free Rincon shares.
So it's all up to how the Rincon shares are valued when they are issued.
Can someone please help with calculations on the possible value of Rincon?
The guy on the phone said it's to be based on future earnings, and depending on what P/E ration they are going to use. But how do we find the value/earnings of the Lithium project??
Have just given ADY a call, and how we are interpreting the announcement atm is correct. We get 1 ADY share for every 3.47215 shares we currently hold, plus 1 free Rincon shares.
So it's all up to how the Rincon shares are valued when they are issued.
Can someone please help with calculations on the possible value of Rincon?
The guy on the phone said it's to be based on future earnings, and depending on what P/E ration they are going to use. But how do we find the value/earnings of the Lithium project??
I believe one of the company goals here will be to decrease the trading of the stock and hence achieve appropriate values in both projects for serious shareholders.
ATM the wild fluctuations in ADY due to traders jumping on and off is deterring the mid to long term investor.
ATM the wild fluctuations in ADY due to traders jumping on and off is deterring the mid to long term investor.
rub92me
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From their latest presentation and incorporated the Opex saving from the Sodium Sulphate resource acquisition (saving around $10 million/annum)
Lithium from June 2009: Annual Opex around $25 million, Revenue around $105 million.
Potassium from Dec 2008: Annual Opex ??, Revenue around $20 million.
Thanks for this - is this good or bad?
Not sure if i am correct: MGX trades at $2.6 with 787.8 million shares on issue (market cap @ 1205 million). It is expecting to produce 'maybe' 3 mtpa with increases in the following years. They have good access to ports. They have $61 million in the bank but have a debt of $91million.
ADY will have 280 million shares on issue after consolidation. It will produce between 1.5-2 mt in 2008 with estimates of 3 mt in 2009.
what does that tell me
Better get back to work?Thanks rub92me...
so... if we say 100 million per year revenue..
and 280 million shares after the split..
100/280 = 35.7c earnings per share
if we use P/E of 5, Price = 1.785
Have I done this right? if it is... then it doesn't sound too bad.. cos :
1.785/ 3.47215 = 0.514 (3.47215 being the ratio no the announcement today)
plus we are getting the ADY (iron ore part)
so... if we say 100 million per year revenue..
and 280 million shares after the split..
100/280 = 35.7c earnings per share
if we use P/E of 5, Price = 1.785
Have I done this right? if it is... then it doesn't sound too bad.. cos :
1.785/ 3.47215 = 0.514 (3.47215 being the ratio no the announcement today)
plus we are getting the ADY (iron ore part)
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