ADY - Admiralty Resources

[SevenFX]

can connect the software you use to a live feed from something like etrade or commsec.

I've asked the question a few times b4 as that would be a cheap/free data feed on a decent charting program, and what what I've found is can't be done, unless you can write a api (application program interface) to support dde (dynamic data exchange) between systems.

Though I would think these brokers would have a problem as one would have to hack it to get this to work

SevenFX

 

[nikki]

hi all,

does anyone know whether the 3.9 mtpa license for japonesa means that the soberana & negrita mines are subject to a different license? if so, is there a cap on how much ady can produce in iron ore?

can anyone tell if the announcement today is of any real value to the company? i guess all this is helping them greatly with their negotiations relating to the sale of their iron ore?

 

[rub92me]

This has been consolidating nicely above 50 cents on lower volume in the past 10 days or so. Last hour of trading yesterday was looking promising and finishing up 2.5 cents. Pre-open at the moment is looking strong with the potential of a little gap-up above 55 cents. Will it have another go at 60 cents? A close today above 57 cents could mean it is starting its next leg up in earnest. Fingers and toes crossed.

 

[nikki]

that would be good!

it looks like sellers are out in masses from .57 onwards. not sure who would have the bulldozer to wipe them out.

one thing i have realised with ady is that the moment i think it is going to do something in particular it does the opposite. so, for today i am going to go and count waves.

 

[nikki]

This has been consolidating nicely above 50 cents on lower volume in the past 10 days or so. Last hour of trading yesterday was looking promising and finishing up 2.5 cents. Pre-open at the moment is looking strong with the potential of a little gap-up above 55 cents. Will it have another go at 60 cents? A close today above 57 cents could mean it is starting its next leg up in earnest. Fingers and toes crossed.

hi rub92me, are you the one buying those 1 million + parcels. what do you know that i don't.

if it finishes at or around .57 can you please be my stockbroker - good read of the stock.

 

[spruik]

that would be good!

it looks like sellers are out in masses from .57 onwards. not sure who would have the bulldozer to wipe them out.

one thing i have realised with ady is that the moment i think it is going to do something in particular it does the opposite. so, for today i am going to go and count waves.

Like someone on HC commented, it looks like "changing of the guards", from traders to investors.

With so many owning them from around 10c and the roller coasting in recent past there will be many profit takers. But the base it's been forming (50-55) looks very strong.

(Long in ADY)

 

[rub92me]

hi rub92me, are you the one buying those 1 million + parcels. what do you know that i don't.

if it finishes at or around .57 can you please be my stockbroker - good read of the stock.

Nah, that wasn't me :.I was lucky enough to get in early on this one and only trade small portions for short term if I see a low risk set up.
It fell a bit short of my optimistic expectations, but a close of 56 cents was still the second highest close. Another big volume day may do it, but not many punters lining up in the pre-open buy depth so far...

 

[Absolutely]

Well there you go - something completely different to think about. lead zinc anomaly. Hasn't done anything for the share price but at least we know there are other things this company has going for it besides lithium and iron ore.

 

[skating101]

Where have all the new investors gone? Is everyone sitting on the sidelines until the price for the new entity comes out?

 

[nikki]

Where have all the new investors gone? Is everyone sitting on the sidelines until the price for the new entity comes out?

really low volume - no one wanting to sell or buy???

ok!! who cares about zine and lead but after that huge open i thought something might happen other than the usual sell, sell, sell on strength.

 

[skating101]

it seems like noone wants to touch this stock, am i missing some information or something, when is more information about the demerger supposed to be released?

 

[nikki]

i found this in another chat room


T$ question to pt from traph...lithium.

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Subject: T$ question to pt from traph...lithium.
Stock Code: ADY - ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL.
Posted: 01/02/07 07:48 Hotcopper Radio: ADY on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: jak360 Views: 1206
Post #: 1529692 (Start of thread) Sentiment: Buy
IP: 202.12.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
Hi PT,

Referring to the recent report released today I wish to ask about the Lithium production dates.

As mentioned in the report, is the production date reflecting the actual production of Lithium, completion or delivery? in which case the dates are likely to be some considerable months afterwards, would that be correct?

If this is the way I have interpreted the dates, in that case we are not likely to see ADY's cash flow from Lithium until late 2009 to early 2010.

Have I mis-interpreted this fact?

Regards
Tony
-----------------------------------------------------
Response From Phillip:

Yes you are correct - you have got it totally wrong.

Ponds are being built now as we speak, in 300-400 days the first batch of brine concentrated to 10,000ppm will be available and we would have produced the first batch of potash (a by-product). Remember the cost of potash is nil to produce so the $175 tonne hits the bottom line.

It takes about one day to take the brine and produce 99.5% pure lithium carbonate, 40 mins to produce lithium chloride and another day to produce lithium Hydroxide. We expect to produce it in batches of 76 tonne (see the quarterly report yesterday for mass balances). We will also produce (at this stage) 99.999 computer battery grade to manufacture lithium hexa flurophosphate.

So from July to Sept 2008 if all things are achieved and its a hot summer in 2008 and global warming continues we will have our first 1,000 tonne. And then onwards we will produce about 1,500 tonne of lithium product per month.

However, Japanese order supplies for the year in March, so their FY year is April to March, so by December this year I hope to announce sales contracts for the June 2008-9 production year which is six months production for the Japanese FY (say Sep to Mar), and announce standby L/C and firm orders. I will be using some of these L/C's for finance to complete the project. They will have particular features that allowme to do it.

At present our total opex estimate is $35m, 17,000 tonnes of product at 6,500 tonne comes in at 110.5m, 80,000 tonne of potash at 14m so that gives us an EBITDA of $124m plus SB at say 3.5m tonnes is EBIT 21m so back of the envelop total EBIT is $110, so on 1.1 billion shares thats 10 cents a share - US, pick a multiple and you got the story.

Compute that for 20 years, put a terminal value of $500m for the salar and $200m for SB, do a NPV at say 12% disc rate and see what you get. (remember unlike normal mining projects the salar has an almost infinite life, and SB has so much in prospective tenements it will be a long time before the ore is gone, plus the infrastructure assets we are building, have significant value in Chile).

Thats the story.

cheers from New York

 

[roland]

Hi, I have been an ADY trader since it was $0.09 and it has been very good to me. We all have a "this is my baby", and this is one of mine

My view on ADY is that they have a good resource and a low cost method of of utilising it. You may remember their website a year or so back, scanned copies of articles from South American local newspapers.

It's been quite a good story, a desert salt lake and a pile of rubbish left behind from a previous endeavour and a forward thinking CEO to turn this into an investment that has captured the imaginations of prospective investors.

Lithium is plentiful, but it doesn't have the big bang or prestige of other in vogue resources, but who cares - we need it for batteries, and we will need batteries - like ... forever. At least until the plastic batteries become more affordable (thank you University of NSW).

Little companies like ADY gain a huge advantange over larger players through under capitalisation of infrastructure, like a lot of our furture oilers, iron ore, and gold companies. If you can pull it out of the ground cheaply, then your profit margin is higher and your share income is more attractive.

Where BHP or RIO would build a huge metal and concrete fence to protect a stock pile of material costing millions, ADY dumps a few discarded shipping containers to surround the perimeter - same affect, 1/1000th the price

I like ADY for pure "Under-Dog" approach. More power to ADY !!!

 

[nikki]

any thoughts on the report anyone - dissapointed that santa barbara operation is still without its equipment. hope that it does not get delayed too much longer to cause problems with delivery and buyer.

delay does not seem problematic in terms of delivery but it confirms the problems with having an Australian management team overseeing a chilean operation.

the update on the lithium production is very positive and seems to be on time to generate income and bring in the necessary contracts.

 

[AussiePaul72]

G'day All,
I've been holding ADY for a while now. The volume has dropped off a bit lately maybe just due to reduction of day traders and has seen the SP settle back a little aswell.
ADY have a number of significant projects and changes in structure on the go at present. I'd be interested to know what others think is required for the SP to breakout over the recent highs and beyond 60c??? All comments and thoughts welcome!

 

[rub92me]

Well, they just got a significant holder on board that bought 79 million shares, mostly above 50 cents if that's any comfort to you and they're unlikely to sell in the short term.
I think that the break-up of the company will possibly generate some interest, and for me it will all depend on how they distribute the value between the iron ore and the Lithium. Prior to that we can expect some initial sales agreement for the Lithium which will further de-risk that part of the operation. At this time there is probably still quite a few people that bought in above 40 cents not too long ago that may think about protecting some profit or get a bit panicky if they bought above 50 cents. I'm in it for the long haul and expect some bumps and dips on the way.

 

[yangxh]

please see the top 20 major shareholders as at 4th Oct. Most of them are investment banks. Now, ADY has had one of them significantly increased its holding.

 

[ttnt]

please see the top 20 major shareholders as at 4th Oct. Most of them are investment banks. Now, ADY has had one of them significantly increased its holding.

Those shareholder are the 'nominess' only, not the banks themselves.
Too many trader in this share...............................................................

 

[yangxh]

Those shareholder are the 'nominess' only, not the banks themselves.
Too many trader in this share...............................................................

Is Merrill Lynch (recent buyer became a substantial shareholder 8.5%) also on behalf of other investors? I am bit confused as I am new.
From Sept 10 to Oct 26, Merrill Lynch bought total 78,900,000 shares for a total of A$41,248,000 (average price was $0.52 per share). Today's close price was at $0.48 which was at recent support level. From this analysis, my opinion is that ADY is a good buy. Merrill Lynch must be confident in ADY.
Anyone give any suggestions, please? I am learning.

 

[STRAT]

Is Merrill Lynch (recent buyer became a substantial shareholder 8.5%) also on behalf of other investors? I am bit confused as I am new.
From Sept 10 to Oct 26, Merrill Lynch bought total 78,900,000 shares for a total of A$41,248,000 (average price was $0.52 per share). Today's close price was at $0.48 which was at recent support level. From this analysis, my opinion is that ADY is a good buy. Merrill Lynch must be confident in ADY.
Anyone give any suggestions, please? I am learning.

ADY is a good buy IMO. Todays price is in response to the DOW which is to be expected as ADY is heavily traded by day traders. More bad news from the US may mean ADY is an even better buy some time later this month