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CLE - Cyclone Metals

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Hi Rup

I am not sure if I understood the meaning of your last post.

Do you mean the broker is saying CFE is like a mini-FMG?

Thanks in advance.

Cheers
 
Im not being very clear today am i?? Lol.

Not really, more so he was referring to the way people started to move on FMG when the mine looked like becoming a reality. I guess that some people have a lower threshold for spec plays than some of us, want to see something actually happening or looking like happening in the not too distant future. By smaller scale i guess he means, an operating mine, but not looking for the next BHP or RIO etc.
 
CFE looking set for a good close, might even get to .70, for an all time high. Late trade has been promising.
 
Tick, Tick Tick and another day goes buy.

Good to see Delong/Ding is organized with the money.!!
I suspect ding's trip out last week was to find out what was going on. He raised the money as he should have 4 weeks after the deal should have been finalized. I'm glad someones organized.
I sold 1/2 my holding last Friday. I have waited long enough so I covered myself just incase. The other 1/2 will see the deal.
Question to anyone whom is in the know. If there are some big sellers selling for the same reason as I did, how do you tell the difference between a big seller and a big buyer? ie: (Big seller sellers below ask. or/and comsec buys big on behalf of smaller holders) Then "hey its a run" Its a week later now and the deal has not been confirmed.
 
MR. said:
Tick, Tick Tick and another day goes buy.

Good to see Delong/Ding is organized with the money.!!
I suspect ding's trip out last week was to find out what was going on. He raised the money as he should have 4 weeks after the deal should have been finalized. I'm glad someones organized.
I sold 1/2 my holding last Friday. I have waited long enough so I covered myself just incase. The other 1/2 will see the deal.
Question to anyone whom is in the know. If there are some big sellers selling for the same reason as I did, how do you tell the difference between a big seller and a big buyer? ie: (Big seller sellers below ask. or/and comsec buys big on behalf of smaller holders) Then "hey its a run" Its a week later now and the deal has not been confirmed.
Click to expand...

Hi MR. I'm not sure I understand your query but here's my understanding. Comsec (& the exchange) processes the buy and sell orders (small or large) as they hit the system. They don't pool a number of orders and then place these orders as one large one. The reason it is known that there's a lot of large orders (buy) going through many times in the past week is that, for example, 550k (buy) went through at least twice in two individual hits, minutes apart. Before that there was a sequence of 200k buy orders going through in rapid succession. The same pattern hasn't been seen on the sell side ie. the orders have been much lower. Sometimes a large seller will try to leak out their shares in a series of smaller parcels but to sell a great many they would obviously need to do many more sales, which hasn't happened. Otherwise the SP would have been lower. I believe its these large orders that have had the most significant effect on the SP simply through sheer weight of numbers. A big player wants in. Lets hope the big player knows what they're doing!
Late announcements? Seem to be the norm these days. Why would Ding raise the capital if he doesn't expect to use it. Remember the $250m deal is only reliant on 300mt being independently confirmed. No other conditions. No escape. I'm sure he would have been in constant contact and knows exactly when he will need the money IMHO.
 
Thanks Skint.
So let me put it this way. If the exchange had alot of "Commsec" buy orders at a particular limit price registed with the exchange in a row, could an order appear bigger than actual? Transactions after those initial 200k's are buyers jumping on. Alot of people would have been watching.

Good luck to the holders.
 
MR. said:
Thanks Skint.
So let me put it this way. If the exchange had alot of "Commsec" buy orders at a particular limit price registed with the exchange in a row, could an order appear bigger than actual? Transactions after those initial 200k's are buyers jumping on. Alot of people would have been watching.

Good luck to the holders.
Click to expand...

No, if Commsec received 10 orders of say 50k at the same time, they will always appear as 10 orders of 50k. Therefore, if you see 550k disappear in one hit, it is one buyer. I agree that the flurry of activity that followed the big orders was other buyers jumping on, no doubt influenced (at least in part) by the big orders. Good luck with the shares you've retained pending the announcement.
 
skint said:
No, if Commsec received 10 orders of say 50k at the same time, they will always appear as 10 orders of 50k. Therefore, if you see 550k disappear in one hit, it is one buyer. I agree that the flurry of activity that followed the big orders was other buyers jumping on, no doubt influenced (at least in part) by the big orders. Good luck with the shares you've retained pending the announcement.
Click to expand...

Skint, thanks for your info'. I don't usually follow individual buy orders but CFE has been an interesting experience. Good luck with your holdings.

re: Not a press article but Collins Stewart has valued the company currently at 0.96c Getting back to that Collins Stewart report CFE will only own 30% of the mine once the deal is confirmed. I can only reject that Collins Stewart’s report.
The way I value CFE is on the return expected from production. Perhaps this simplistic information can confirm others calculations.

Selling price of $70- AUD Tonne.
FOB cost of extraction and processing = $30- AUD Tonne.
Profit per tonne of $40- per tonne x 15 million tonnes per year = $600 million AUD yr.
(70% profit is Ding’s) so 30% of profit is CFE’s = $180 million per year.
Divided by 500 million shares = $0.36 per share.
If a P/E of 8 was used considering both (RIO and BHP trade at 10) The value I put on CFE is $2.88 in 2010.
Round figures $3.00 because of the lack of debt held by CFE.
Basically CFE at a share price of $0.60 can 5 times it value by 2010.

If I use the same calculation method on FMG, CFE is so much more attractive. FMG can only double at best. The reason why CFE has under performed Collins Stewart, Lonsec etc is because magnetite mines would have found raising finance extremely hard. This has changed with examples of Australasian Resources, Fortescue Metals (magnetite holding), Gindalbie Metals and Cape Lambert. Thanks to the Chinese and the high prices of Iron Ore. Skint expects CFE is due to be re-rated and I totally agree but CFE must confirm that 300mt’s.
 
Cheers MR. Some very interesting figures there.

One of the things i sometimes like to look at is the non listed options that are distributed to Directors, employees etc from time to time.

As we well know, some directors like to issue themselves with options which are very close to being in the money - sometimes it is used as remuneration, sometimes as bonuses, and sometimes its just plain dodgy. Im not sure that last one applies here.

In CFE's case, various options were distributed in December.

16.4 million to brokers, consultants, directors and employees at an ex price of .40 cents, before 31 Dec 2007. Was out of the money then by 4c.

3.3 million to Directors only, ex price 90cents, 30 June 2008. Out of the money then by 54c.

3.3 million to Directors only, ex price $1.40, 30 June 2009, out of the money then by $1.04

Its the last two which have caught my attention. We see unrealistic options pricing from time to time, but a $1.40 option for a .36c stock?

What i take from this is what the Director's think CFE's long term future can be. So their price targets, which are probably well understated given that this is their incentive payment, are 90cents by June next year and $1.40 by June 2009.

A $1.40 sp is currently more than double the latest close price. Double share price in just 2 years. As i say though, imo, that is a very conservative target by the directors.

If the deal is confirmed, we will see some traders take their profits, (and well done to them), and then long termers start to buy in, perhaps with some institutional support. And my little side prediction, subject to the deal being confirmed, is a whole bunch of brokers etc progressively issuing their own price targets and buy recs for CFE.
 
Ruprect said:
and then long termers start to buy in, perhaps with some institutional support.
Click to expand...

I know for a fact, much of the volume in the last two weeks has been from Institutional buying.

Opinion = this should stop any crazy sell off like last time, hopefully confirmation via official announcement will have a positive or at least neutral effect on sp.....
 
I wrote the following this morning:
Basically CFE at a share price of $0.60 can 5 times it value by 2010.

I'll just further clarify that production needs to be 15mt per year to have a share price of $3-. This may not be in 2010 because production is expected to start lower and build up to 15mt. This is my opinion based on my calculations. dyor please.
 
smoothsatin said:
I know for a fact, much of the volume in the last two weeks has been from Institutional buying.
Click to expand...

How do you know this SmoothSatin?

Thanks for your post MR. I am waiting eagerly for three things : confirmaiton of the 300Mt (fingers crossed!), the latest resource announcement (due end of July) and the result of the feasability study.
 
A couple of things on CFE.

First, got a run in Mining Journal Online today: (AIM)

http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=2921


Cape Lambert Iron Ore also features in the top 10 best-performing companies over the three months to June 20th, more than doubling its share price. Profiled by WMS in October 2006, it has incorporated a 100% owned subsidiary, Global Iron Ltd, and proposes to transfer all of its iron ore assets, excluding the Cape Lambert Iron Project in Western Australia, to this company in exchange for shares in Global.

Second, there was a good late run for CFE shares just before close. Hit a low of .66 for the day on very light trade, before finshing strongly on .69. About 60% of the days trade came in the last hour. CFEO also finshed well on 39.5.

Probable reason for the spike was the notice of general meeting annoucement which came out just after 3pm. They say it was dispatched to shareholders on 15 June, but havent got mine yet.

The meeting details specifically 2 things, one is the approval of shareholders for the aquisition by Ding, the other approval by shareholders to set up global iron, which will result in a distribution of Global shares to CFE holders, 1 for 80 CFE held.

The aquisition notice clearly states again that the deal must be finalised by July 31, based on the JORC report which they have until that date to complete. But, they still estimate that the report will come in June - thats in the next week.

To add to that, the general meeting is being held on 16 July, before that deadline of 31 July. That means the report will come between now and the 16th. However, i think based on the fact that they will need to give shareholders time to look again at the deal, the report will be out well before then. I think the next week should be very interesting...:eek:
 
Thanks for the link ruprect and your comments. I also have not received anything in the mail, so your not alone.

Notice of general meeting (page 6, 1.2) Timetable
"Estimate of JORC report to be june 2007 and must be by end July 2009/7"

I researched and confirmed personally with Cape Lambert that the 300mt JORC Report "had" to be received by the end of June by contract. I can not explain why the 31st of July is now the maximum.

"Other tenements" thats where they are. Near GRR Grange Resources. I own GRR because it is similar to CFE and only 80km's from Port Albany and they have been working on the project since 2003. Will a company like GRR get a boost from CFE's confirmed Sale? If someone wants to look into GRR see you on that thread.

Looking forward to the 300mt confirmation "any day"
 
Really starting to run now guys. Announcement is around the corner? Breaking 72 this morning was a big deal I think. Theres another block at 73 but I dont think its going to hold.
 
Volume is a lot higher this morning.
First 15 mins cfe higher than yesterdays total vol.
' 30 " cfeo " " " " "

CFE near double volume 1st 1/2 hr.
But you all know this.
Maybe to be expected. no news though.
 
MR. said:
Volume is a lot higher this morning.
First 15 mins cfe higher than yesterdays total vol.
' 30 " cfeo " " " " "

CFE near double volume 1st 1/2 hr.
But you all know this.
Maybe to be expected. no news though.
Click to expand...

Dont you love it when things play out as predicted. Now we just need a few announcements to confirm everything!
 

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