ADI - Adelphi Energy

[chance fate]

months agentm?? where'd you get that info?? from my own experience I've been involved in gas well testing in admittedly some fairly good sized and good quality fields in Holland... testing (flaring followed by build up) there didn't take more than 48 hrs: 24 hours to see the pressure response from the boundaries of the field i.e. a shift from transient decline to steady state decline... the program would be longer for perforations, stimulation, fraccing and so forth....

 

[fflintoff]

i think your probably close to the truth, they have no clue really, one minute it was overpressurised, next it wasnt.. i spoke to chris a bit today and i feel what your saying mav fits in with what he was trying to explain.. they are in a very tricky play, very thick and lots of movement from the fault, you have trouble knowing when your drilling exactly where you are in terms of the plays your targeting and the seismics etc,.... then you get spikes and potential blowouts, so you withdraw for the safety of the well,, you cant win them all, and this well may be looking ordinary right now, but it may come good??

its now a matter of the geologists doing their best guesses, and the economics of fracing further. and we will be told last..

Sl is not a fault type play, so i have no problem staying in on the secondaries.. in light of the eme announcements, i wouldnt miss it for anything!!

looking forward we have a lot more than 40 bcf at SL and its possible in a month no one will remember NT.. there are some big announcements to come i feel, a new well in block A, and some very interesting weeks of testing.. anyone figured out yet why they will be testing Sl for months??
i best leave that one alone for the time being

agentm,
Your last sentence is intriging. At the EME AGM last month, Frank Brophy mentioned max 2 weeks for testing. Regards.

 

[Agentm]

hey fflintoff, i agree, Sl is intriguing and has lots of history that many have no concept of..

I was thinking about the last report from ADI on what they were doing at SL:

During the drilling of the Sugarloaf-1 well Adelphi Energy Limited reported a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay, interpreted from wire-line logs and gas shows in Cretaceous age carbonates which were the secondary target in the well.
Since that report, further detailed analysis of the logs has been undertaken by the Project Operator Texas Crude Energy Inc who advises that this possible pay interval is comprised of three zones of porosity which are expected to be tested separately. Flow testing of the possible pay zones in the Sugarloaf well is intended to be undertaken as soon as practicable.
The Operator is presently conducting engineering and reservoir studies to determine the best method of completing the zones for testing. Whatever method is chosen it is expected that fracture stimulation will be part of the procedure as is typical in such carbonates. The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to take approximately two to three months.
As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture’s land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI"), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths (including the abovementioned carbonate zone) to approximately 19,500 acres to date.
Operations currently in progress at the well-site include the plugging off of the deeper section of the well and recovery of approximately 15,000 feet of 5 inch tubing (which will be available for re-use in the well if needed), as initial steps required in plugging back and testing the shallower zones.

The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to take approximately two to three months.

now they have 3 zones, they will frac, and it will take 2-3 months???

thinking laterally, if they require permits, then what are they doing ?

if they need to secure services, and if they are talking rigs, then they have a workover rig there already which is pulling up 15,000 feet of 5 inch tubing. so if its a rig, why do they need another rig?

it takes 2 -3 months to do some major works on a well, it doesnt take 2 -3 months to frac... please correct me if i am wrong..

i guess i have to ask.. in the belief i know the answer....

what takes 2-3 months, needs services, and permits?


As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture’s land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI"), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths (including the abovementioned carbonate zone) to approximately 19,500 acres to date.

thinking this one through, i believe they had more rights to the deeps, the primary, than the secondary, now they have gone after all depths on the entire lease to secure the acerage for the 3 pay zones in the secondaries.

AMI has 80 square kilometers, sugarloaf it is stuck more or less smack in the middle of it all.

then there is the block A area to the west, with one well on it producing from the pay zones, and another well about to spud on that block, the acerage is undeclared. one jvp partner EME has broken rank and done deals there to get some quick cash in the near term.


then a JVP partner, AUT has broken rank and gone with TCE into ipamema and Longhorn, these two acerages are substantial, and Ipamema lease is to the south and longhorn to the east of sugarloaf. AUT has a lot of confidence on the play, and obviously feels it extends further, and has acted on, and secured a position there that it feels very comforatable with. I am not privy to the data on theose fields, i cant determine if the acerage is better or not, I have had conversations with one director (non adi) whom was of the opinion that the acerage may not have been as prospective as Block A and B, but prospective enough none the less, who knows, only time will tell that, and its interesting that there are no wells announced on the acerage, and no mention of any program to do anything with it. AUT says this about the acerage

Aurora considers that the land packages secured to date represent an excellent strategic holding relative to our overall targeted areas.

further comments on the entire projetc from AUT are:

The targeted areas of interest have been identified based on considerable analysis including 2D seismic and existing well data. TCEI has spent in excess of 12 years collating and analysing data to this end and from this work has been able to identify several new oil and gas field discoveries.

now couch oil says it was 15 years, and i think the plays there are possibly 3 or 4 plays, some active in all, lesser in others, and on the fringe they are lesser again..

I am not going to comment on what TCE has done over the past 15 years, but one thing i am extremely certain of, SL and Block A are substantial fields, they are the most prospective and being tackled first, i am also of the belief that Block A and B contain one play, the chalks, as EME made a blunder and revealed on the Block A. I am certain that 16 wells have been programmed for the two blocks (excluding ipanema and longhorn) and once Sl is tested the action begins on massive scale. we wont see one well taking one year to test, we will see infill and development wells all over the two blocks.

I believe if TCE has spent 15 years on this, testing and driling, then still hung around, and a major oil company has joined rank with them, then its got to be exciting stuff. this is not a tiny NT well, this is serious acerage and a lot of planning.

right now, adi has a very cheap share in my view, and across all the JVP's the shares are exceptional value to what i believe the TCE discoveries will return.

Why am i in ADI? I researched TCE, extensively, then concluded the man running the operation has credentials that are staggering... I look at what he has done, how he did it, and i respect his judgement and if he puts his own dollars into a project that has taken 15 years to develop, and has a major oil company on board, then its got my interest...

to be frank, of all the projects on ADI's porfolio, i rate SL as the best thing, and for AUT directors to take control of another company, EKA, and then change its name and introduce the only thing it had (sugarloaf) to the shareholders and create a larger exposure to the field, then i decided then and there that SL was more than a wildcat and needed closer examination!!

I see a lot of garbage posted on all sorts of forums around the globe on SL, and i also notice the ones who post meaningless trpie have never researched the SL play and have no idea who TCE are, and who runs it, and what he represents. most have no conception that 15 years ago, when they were possibly in the school yard, TCE made a discovery and planned to capitalise on it and develop is very quietly..

If NT had the same history as SL i would have a different slant on it, NT is not important to me in terms of the investing i have undertaken in ADI, a positive result would have been great, but SL is only on my agenda...

cheers..

 

[chance fate]

... oh now i see what you mean... by the same logic it's taken 12 years to drill the well... the acreage issue was covered on this thread a while back... now i think of it it's actually taken several hundred million years to drill the well

 

[Agentm]

... oh now i see what you mean... by the same logic it's taken 12 years to drill the well... the acreage issue was covered on this thread a while back... now i think of it it's actually taken several hundred million years to drill the well

which well?? there are many, you just need to know where to look.. you only know about 3.. maybe there are more??? everyone does their own research.

if you think SL is the first well on this play then your years behind.. many years.. but not millions..

it takes more than a few million years for ancient sunshine to become a hydrocarbon, and i think TCE has been seriously on this for a good 7 years or more in terms of drilling.. you dont just ring up your mates at a major oil company and do a deal overnight, in terms of block A they have been seriously at it for a lot longer than that also..

the jvp's are very late in the peiece on this play very very late..

 

[maverick11]

hmm announcement dated 24th april says 2-3 months for testing. There's no way fracing would take that long. I am thinking they are planing on drilling a horizontal well that will subsequently (conveniently) be used as part of the flow testing of SL. This way they also buy themselves more time until they get absolute definitive answers from the horizontal... In the meantime this will give them time to do something else...

I am also eager to hear what they decide to do for NT. It seems maybe the porosity isn't what they had hoped for, but it may also be hole damage from the faulting. These are of course my researched guesses, so dyor

 

[chance fate]

..apologies there agentM.. don't think my sense of humour came across very well in that last posting... i think i understand what you're saying - just to recap on Sugarloaf:

• testing has been planned for 2-3 months but most of that has been waiting because of acreage acquisition
• the play has been drilled many times before and therefore upgrades the chance of success in this well

so can we extend the positive inferences from both points? do we already have a commercial well?

 

[maverick11]

ok, i think there has been some confusion - myself included. Re-reading the announcement 24/04 i think it is possibly indicating 2-3months until testing commences. It is actually quite ambiguous and now i'm confused and i'm sure i'm not the only one. Agentm, could you please clarify what you mean when you said testing will take 2-3 months to complete?

 

[resourceboom]

interesting post on AZZ on HC,
saying that no nearby wells to NT produce at this level but higher up.

so there may still be a chance for NT. If NT fails I think the price may hit 40c.

saw on the front page of ASF its your bday today Dukey (the starter of this adi thread), :birthday: mate!!

 

[maverick11]

they still have the wilcox meek and wilcox b targets to investigate. Not sure if the other wells are the same targets, but you get the drift

 

[Dukey]

interesting post on AZZ on HC,
saying that no nearby wells to NT produce at this level but higher up.

so there may still be a chance for NT. If NT fails I think the price may hit 40c.

saw on the front page of ASF its your bday today Dukey (the starter of this adi thread), :birthday: mate!!

Thank you muchly Sir!!

-I`m still here and still in on ADI. SLightliy dissappointed it`s taking so long, and the reporting from JVP`s is not very enlightlening (without all kinds of reading between the lines ect). - meanwhile other stocks are charging but... not every stock can double the day after you buy in can it!!??
Have been very happy with my other pick (PES) recently.
:bier: will drink the health of all ASFers tonight (esp. Joe - he who giveth!!) - has been a good year - and many thanks to all ADI posters who know a hell of a lot more about drilling operations than I do!! I`ve learnt alot about various investing styles from this thread and others. Probably the best investment education you could find anywhere!!

Cheers me mateys.....

 

[Agentm]

ok, i think there has been some confusion - myself included. Re-reading the announcement 24/04 i think it is possibly indicating 2-3months until testing commences. It is actually quite ambiguous and now i'm confused and i'm sure i'm not the only one. Agentm, could you please clarify what you mean when you said testing will take 2-3 months to complete?

After they pull up the pipe there is little they have to do there. It does not take 2-3 months to do any of the things they put forward in the report. i think they announced what they have to justify the excessive time delays at SL by spruiking technical issues that are not exactly nessesary for a frac to occur, they could have fraced months ago.. the issue is acerage.. and what has to happen at SL now they have a very prospective play in the chalks.. they clearly say that in the release..

The Operator is presently conducting engineering and reservoir studies to determine the best method of completing the zones for testing. Whatever method is chosen it is expected that fracture stimulation will be part of the procedure as is typical in such carbonates. The technical assessment, test design, permitting and securing of services is expected to take approximately two to three months.

As a result of the analysis of this possible pay, the Operator has extended the Joint Venture’s land acquisition program within the Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI"), increasing the area over which the Joint Venture has rights to all depths (including the abovementioned carbonate zone) to approximately 19,500 acres (80 square kilometres) to date.


i assume the engineering and reservior studies they refer to are 3d's.

the method utlimately used in chalks is fractue stimulation, correct.

technical assesment, test design, permitting and securing services??

they have a workover rig there already pulling up pipe, so what other services are needed, and what permit?

why are the jvp's not hooking the well into the pipeline if they are using the frac testfrom this well, and its data, to determine the number of additional wells?

you can test the SL well as it is in the vertical, and equally you can use the well data from the wireline and forthcoming frac test, and compare it to the other producing wells, then with the aid of 3d's, then permit the well to go horizontal into the chalks and test it as you would if you were serious about producing from that zone, your asking a lot to be producing from the chalks in the vertical i believe..

how many wells produce successfully from the chalks in the vertical compared to the horizontal..

the next well in block A to go on this pay zone is horizontal..

i would not be hanging around in this share i was to believe that the SL well will produce commercially from the chalks in its present configuration.. not unless they convinced me how they intended to do it.. they must have some amazing frac technology..

i do not believe they have connected the well to the pipeline, i dont see any haste there, which surely you would expect if they were about to frac, and i dont see any activity such to suggest they are about to produce from Sl as is, as we saw at NT. this also indicates to me that they are not about to produce from the well.. i see SL, in its current state, as a test well, and where it ends up and what it ends up as to become a production well IMHO is not 4 weeks away, but I dont think the JVP's will announce anything without really educating and enlightening the market to what their last 6 months of research has told them..

remember the last statement on Sl:

The proposed testing program for the shallower Cretaceous Carbonate section in the Sugarloaf 1 well as announced recently is now scheduled to commence in July.
By way of clarification, a recent announcement by one of the Sugarloaf 1 participants (Empyrean Energy plc) in relation to its participation in further wells to be drilled in the Sugarloaf and other nearby areas will not affect the timing of the Sugarloaf 1 well test nor will it affect Adelphi’s interest in the leases acquired within the Sugarloaf Joint Ventures’ Area of Mutual Interest (AMI). These leases have recently been significantly increased to
approx. 19,500 acres within the “All Depth” portion of the Sugarloaf AMI.
The timing and number of additional wells by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture is subject to the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test.​

it seems evident that ADI are confirming the EME statement that multiple wells are going in at Sl, and i believe these will by and large be horizontal wells. there are 3 plays and maybe some can be vertically drilled.. It may be nessesary to frac the well to make the decision on how to drill horizontally, but i believe these guys are better than that and would have known from the time of the wirelines were done that what they were going to do at Sl on the chalks play, and that things will go ahead once the frac confirms the flow rates, which then ultimately will give them the key data on how to configure the horizontal wells....

i also believe they have, via the wirelines and other data aquired, made decisions on 16 well already, and that many will be on the SL lease..

ADI do not say that they are unsure if any further wells are going ahead until the testing is done, they are simply saying more are going ahead, and the testing will ultimately determine where and when..


lastly i add some interesting data to back up my claim that you drill horizonatal in the chalks:

Prime Targets

Horizontal and extended-reach wells have been drilled to address various reservoir, economic and geological aspects of a play.
Seven geologic and reservoir types have been prime horizontal targets and have yielded positive results, including:

• The Bakken Shale in North Dakota.
• Factured chalk like the Austin Chalk in Texas and Louisiana.
• Stratigraphic traps such as the Niagara reef in Michigan.
• Paleokarst reservoirs like the San Andres and Yates in Texas.
• Thin beds such as those in the Red River of North Dakota and Montana.
• Coal seam methane.
• Heterogeneous sands.

In the United States, the Upper Cretaceous Austin Chalk has been the most successful play that has hinged on horizontal drilling. From 1985 through May 1999, 4,230 horizontal wells were completed in the Austin Chalk and collectively these wells had 6,887 completions.
"The Austin Chalk trend has undergone three development cycles over the last 60 years," Stark observed, "but the play didn't emerge as an important resource until horizontal drilling was applied in the last development cycle. The benefit of horizontal drilling technology in the play is obvious."


perhaps i am stating the obvious??

 

[chance fate]

OK...it's starting to get close to test time on SL and seeing EKA starting to fire-up (hopefully confirmation soon) here's a semi-serious price prediction for ADI and EKA in the lead-up to SL testing (apologies Yogi for stepping on your toes here) - for what it's worth EKA hit low 40c as shallow targets were being drilled and ADI hit low 60c ... so taking a few cents off EKA for additional risk as further activity in Turkey seems a way off... and adding a few cents on to ADI for possible NT success (as of today - may have results by then) and other activities in the portfolio:

EKA = 35-40c
ADI = 65-70c

The key thing now is when? The thing that troubles me with this well is it may not be commercial as it's a vertical well - at best it could be produced but at a low flow rates. The horizontal wells would be needed to achieve good inflow performance as the shallow zones are not very thick. So a fully viable well may not be to be expected... but a good reserves estimate backed by a drilling program in the near term are what to look for....

Any thoughts?

 

[Ken]

Did anyone switch there funds from ADI to ARQ?

Still get some exposure to ADI, but not all eggs in one basket, being texas...

ARQ seems a safer play to get exposure to sugar loaf due to diversification.

 

[tomcat]

Agree with you Ken,

ARQ is definately a safer bet. I think they are looking the goods on other plays outside of their interest in ADI and SL. They are a producer and have an exciting portfolio in terms of exploration.

ADI has a higher risk / reward slant and it simply depends on your own levels of risk tolerance. I'm in ADI for the chalks in SL as I have a higher risk tolerance on this stock. If SL hits the sweet spot ADI's sp will soar whilst ARQ's will increase but not exponentially like ADI.

ADI has higher risk due to the fact it has no producing wells hence no cashflow...so if SL is a dud it will die in the short term. I'm in it for SL, and I'm still not 100% certain NT is dead and buried.

 

[fflintoff]

OK...it's starting to get close to test time on SL and seeing EKA starting to fire-up (hopefully confirmation soon) here's a semi-serious price prediction for ADI and EKA in the lead-up to SL testing (apologies Yogi for stepping on your toes here) - for what it's worth EKA hit low 40c as shallow targets were being drilled and ADI hit low 60c ... so taking a few cents off EKA for additional risk as further activity in Turkey seems a way off... and adding a few cents on to ADI for possible NT success (as of today - may have results by then) and other activities in the portfolio:

EKA = 35-40c
ADI = 65-70c

The key thing now is when? The thing that troubles me with this well is it may not be commercial as it's a vertical well - at best it could be produced but at a low flow rates. The horizontal wells would be needed to achieve good inflow performance as the shallow zones are not very thick. So a fully viable well may not be to be expected... but a good reserves estimate backed by a drilling program in the near term are what to look for....

Any thoughts?

Is that why they have been chasing so much acreage & why EME ´s new 16 wells at Blocks A/B will be horizontal?
Couch mentioned 9 - 12% porosity in Sep for the chalks.

 

[maverick11]

The key thing now is when? The thing that troubles me with this well is it may not be commercial as it's a vertical well - at best it could be produced but at a low flow rates. The horizontal wells would be needed to achieve good inflow performance as the shallow zones are not very thick. So a fully viable well may not be to be expected... but a good reserves estimate backed by a drilling program in the near term are what to look for....

Any thoughts?

The key is how they are going to choose to announce it. Really, with all the research, 3d data, nearby producing wells, wirelines, frac testing results, gas logs, show reports, acreage, etc etc they should have enough data to "spill the beans" on what they have found and hopefully use the "d" word. Afterall, the only reason they are holding back now is acreage. Then they could advance forwards with the horizontal well for commercialisation. One of many wells...

They could however delay the inevitable by using the horizontal well as part of the "testing program" and buy themselves more time... but I feel they won't be able to do this and give the sp another spanking. Hopefully next month everything will be revealed

But I tell you, although I have great confidence in SL; if they delay it further I really will be extremely pis*ed.. so i can understand why the sp has taken a beating over the last few months with all that has happened.

Have a great weekend people!

 

[resourceboom]

Is that why they have been chasing so much acreage & why EME ´s new 16 wells at Blocks A/B will be horizontal?
Couch mentioned 9 - 12% porosity in Sep for the chalks.

Yeah, but they have since reported high porosity too in the Hosston.
How many other wells will be drilled? What about permiability? What about flow rates? So many unknowns at the moment. Getting a bit nervous !!

 

[maverick11]

anyone know anything on EKA?? EKA up over 18%!!! It's been jumping up the last few days.............

 

[Agentm]

mav..

i dont know whats happening there, but the sp indicates some very impressive gains for the holders..

There is no news from NT.. i would have thought an update is in order..

there is so much happening behind the scene at Sl that it makes your head spin, yet if you look at the jvp's you dont get any clues..

There is some very impressive people involved on the play, and i am staying around, i am a little concerned the jvp's are prepared to let their sp go south with no news, yet blatently there is activity all around the place..

i think its high time the jvp's commenced their coming clean on whats happening, and we got the show on the road..

i am curious as to why the cats are away right now??