AGS - Alliance Resources

[chicken]

AGS moving strongly again, it is certainly well supported at these levels. Let the market decide. As you say spooly- like to be news in 3rd and 4th Q 2007. Nice diagram.

Spooley...you got it right...why..??? the research is there...and I am holding as well...only post which made sense today..

 

[Go Nuke]

WOW...fantastic guys!
I cant thank you enough for your input!

I guess its just the slowness of watching other U explorers take off while AGS putters along {As you said Zed327}

I wish I knew and could understand half of the technical side that you all discuss, but as I read new info it provokes me to do more reseach to try learn more of the terminology you all talk about.

I really do need to find out more about WHY a market cap has so much to do with companies. {better go look in the beginners room}

Great info Spooly74!
Very much appriciated.
Sometimes I think we have a mix of accountants and mining engineers here on ASF..lol.

Thx everyone.
GN.

 

[Omninewbie]

Are you asking why market cap, as opposed to the sp, has so much to do with a company?

The market cap measures the equity in the company. The sp alone says nothing.

I guess to put it in context look at, for e.g., Qantas. Its sp is around $5.40. MTN is also around $5.40. Surely you wouldn't think that MTN is worth anywhere near Qantas' value.

The fact is, MTN is not even anywhere near Qantas in market cap terms.

 

[laurie]

Another thing that AGS has to cross if the decision to mine is made it needs to fork out $$$ for it's share, so DILUTION could end up being a problem because either they do another spp or hope that their Gold mine is producing $$$ and new mines are not cheap even 25% could cost them well over $50m+ unless someone wants the 25% and will pay for it

cheers laurie

 

[Sean K]

Another thing that AGS has to cross if the decision to mine is made it needs to fork out $$$ for it's share, so DILUTION could end up being a problem because either they do another spp or hope that their Gold mine is producing $$$ and new mines are not cheap even 25% could cost them well over $50m+ unless someone wants the 25% and will pay for it

cheers laurie

Good point Laurie. I've been thinking about this myself. I don't think Maldon will pay for it. It's going to take a little while for that to ramp up. After mining begins at B4M it will take a couple of years to ramp also, so maybe a spp, a buyout of Arkaroola, or complete T/O.

 

[laurie]

Or another scenario kennas is they could be getting Maldon ready for a sale,off load their gold, and concentrate on Uranium & Copper JMHO

cheers laurie

 

[spooly74]

Good point Laurie. I've been thinking about this myself. I don't think Maldon will pay for it. It's going to take a little while for that to ramp up. After mining begins at B4M it will take a couple of years to ramp also, so maybe a spp, a buyout of Arkaroola, or complete T/O.

Yep, is a good point an important to keep reminding ourselves that it needs to happen.

Maldon is currently about 500m into a 1900m decline, the project advanced 250m during the last quarter but encountered ground water which delayed them somewhat as it required additional ground support. If they can keep going at say 300m a quarter they will be finished Stage 1 of Maldon in just over a year and will need cash to proceed with Stage 2.

This will also be the time imo when the end of our piggy-back free carry from Heathgate will be looming.

There is no way that Maldon will fund the bigger picture but I think it`s worth hanging on to becauce if they get it to production it could certainly be a cash cow for the general and administrative expences for B4mile such as transport to site for personnel and materials, operation costs, admin costs etc.

An SPP is on the cards imo to fund both but how much and at what price is the question.

We might get more of an indication from the scoping study in a couple of weeks.

As an aside for the charties ... Could the recent price action from the end of Jan be seen to be a cup and handle formation (currently in the handle) or is the height of the handle invalid because it went higher than the opposite lip?

Would seem to tie in nicely with upcoming ALP conference and JORC time, but I may need to take of the rose tinted glasses.

cheers

 

[Sean K]

As an aside for the charties ... Could the recent price action from the end of Jan be seen to be a cup and handle formation (currently in the handle) or is the height of the handle invalid because it went higher than the opposite lip?

I hadn't even noticed that. As a general rule C&H are much better if gentle, even, U shaped and equal on both sides. the target from the cup would be the distance from the base of the cup to the lip. This may qualify, but the unevenness, and the gap up make it less valid. If valid however, a break from the lip would provide a price target of $3.40 ish. Market cap would be pretty toppy then.

Chartschool C&H description:

Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.

Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.

Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which is conforms with Dow Theory.

Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.

Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.

Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.

Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.

 

[Go Nuke]

Ah, thank you Kennas for inserting the meaning of "Cup and Handle".

LOL..Its interesting where some of these terminologies originaly came from

 

[Sean K]

Chart review.

 

[zed327]

Just heard on another forum that Mike Rann has been ramping up the beverley 4 mile deposit again. "largest U deposit in 25 years blah blah blah".

If i was a betting man I'd put my $ on thursday for the jorc.

I don't bet because I usually lose.

 

[laurie]

Just heard on another forum that Mike Rann has been ramping up the beverley 4 mile deposit again. "largest U deposit in 25 years blah blah blah".

If i was a betting man I'd put my $ on thursday for the jorc.

I don't bet because I usually lose.

If that's the case then if I was the ASX I would ask for a please explain

cheers laurie

 

[Out Too Soon]

Just heard on another forum that Mike Rann has been ramping up the beverley 4 mile deposit again. "largest U deposit in 25 years blah blah blah".

If i was a betting man I'd put my $ on thursday for the jorc.

I don't bet because I usually lose.

IF I was a betting man I'd say Mike Ranns' favourite trusted Aunt has a bundle of AGS shares.

(the things you can say when your anon)

 

[Sean K]

AGS Cup and Handle may have eventuated with the stock now pushing towards the lip of the cup, and also all time high. With the overall market down this is pretty positive IMO. See post above for possible outcome if break up from cup. Just a probability, and has failed at this before. Perhaps the Labor policy decision will give this a boost, or the long awaited Quasar JORC is in the mail. I'm not holding my breath though!

 

[laurie]

Yep conference that will overturn policy pushing the price up in anticipation of money coming from stocks in W.A. or QLD into S.A. don't forget AGS is in the ASX 300 so funds could also boost sp

cheers laurie

 

[bigdog]

AGS all time high is $2.60 on April 4 2007 and up 12 cents today

Currently $2.52 +$0.12 +5.00% $2.54 high today and $2.40 low today 1,047,245 shares $2,580,339
@ 27-Apr 14:42:12

 

[Go Nuke]

Well i guess with all the media attention pointing out AGS and Heathgate, can you blame people for wanting to buy up in AGS?

If (and I believe most people do) the no new mines law is overturned, then knowing Mr Rann, he will waste little time plugging AGS again.

Combine all that with the AGS expected JORC etc...well lets see how high it will go.

:aliena:

 

[laurie]

This has to come close to $XXX next week with media talk on Uranium from the Labor conference and yes Mr Rann will be the pipe piper Monday opening will tell the mood for the rest of the week :

cheers laurie

 

[UraniumLover]

AGS SP still has heaps in the tank IMO:

On p11/12 of AGS' latest presentation they make the statement that:

PDN has 1.7km² @ .025% U3O8 (PDN have already announced that the deposit = 52,470,004 lbs of U3O8 or 23,800 tonnes) - inground resource value per share of: $6.10

NOW:

AGS have just announced that they have 4km² @ .03%! Taking into account the extra 2.3km² & 20% higher grade, THEN: Mathematically, AGS has about 143,243,110 lbs of U3O8 or 65,000 tonnes

AGS share of that is 25% = 35,810,777 lbs of U3O8 for a value of $1,851,030,050 with an inground resource value per share of: $8.09

AGS has to be the best/safest U stock on the ASX IMO! It is really looking the goods.

Reagrds to all

tend to disagree . compare it to MTN (SA) , BMN or even PNN (SA) falls well short. can name a host more .. This has been hyped by Mike Rann. His grand Mother must own it lol

 

[Fab]

tend to disagree . compare it to MTN (SA) , BMN or even PNN (SA) falls well short. can name a host more .. This has been hyped by Mike Rann. His grand Mother must own it lol

to me AGS is a bit like SMM . Big potential U mining reserve and with the benefit to be able to mine them in a U friendly state.
SMM has jumped to over $6 and AGS is still around the $2.50 mark so I believe there is still some margin for AGS to get much higher.
Monday will be a good test if U mining policy is changed as expected