AGS - Alliance Resources

[bigdog]

ASX ann today

AGS 9:33 AM Four Mile Prospect Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070430/pdf/3125l3kx2c071z.pdf

FOUR MILE URANIUM PROSPECT UPDATE
Highlights

The mineral resource estimate for the drilled out portion of Four Mile West is having final checks completed before being released.

High grade uranium intersections continue from Four Mile West, including:
9.1 metres grading 1.84% pU3O8

High grade uranium intersections continue from Four Mile East, including:
2.0 metres grading 1.37% pU3O8

(pU3O8 refers to the U3O8 grade as estimated from PFN log and is provisional upon the application of calibration correction factors)

 

[bigdog]

The market liked todays ANN with SP high of $2.82 up 27 cents

AGS $2.82 +$0.27 +10.59% high $2.82 and low $2.72
455,798 share $1,270,941 30-Apr 10:02:43

 

[Go Nuke]

For the fundametalists out there...

AGS has a 246,049,285 shares in circulation X $2.55 SP.

A rough calc shows that AGS has a market cap of $600,000,000, which seems pretty high for a company which hasn't started mining Uranium yet.
Would anyone agree with me that a lot is priced in.

Does anyone have a list of market caps of U explorers/miners in comparison?

How much more upside do you all think is there and where will this come from?

Thanks
PG

In saying this. are you saying that its not possible for AGS's shares to really gain much higher than $2-$3??

Ive heard a few people mention AGS market cap.
But I get the impression that if its cap is getting too high..then why am i bothering to hold AGS for much longer?
Whats the alternative for improving the share price?

Share buy back?
More projects?
Production?

Very "convenient" of AGS to release that report today
I like it

 

[zed327]

Kennas i really respect your reading of charts and i haven't come across a double gap up before.
If you could give me your thoughts on this please.

 

[Sean K]

Kennas i really respect your reading of charts and i haven't come across a double gap up before.
If you could give me your thoughts on this please.

Any gap up is bullish in a general upward trend, so this may be more so. Chart wise it looks great! However, I'm very concerned about the valuation possibly being extended further. Market cap's possibly too high for the potential resource. Maybe there's something about this that is driving it higher we haven't considered. Perhaps takeover premium is well factored in? Perhaps it's been accululated by some instos on behalf of someone and because there's not many sellers the price is being pushed higher and higher. Not sure.

 

[zed327]

Thanks for your assessment Kennas it's greatly appreciated.

I'll be using stop a loss just in case of a correction.

I've got big hopes for AGS.

 

[Pommiegranite]

In saying this. are you saying that its not possible for AGS's shares to really gain much higher than $2-$3??

Ive heard a few people mention AGS market cap.
But I get the impression that if its cap is getting too high..then why am i bothering to hold AGS for much longer?
Whats the alternative for improving the share price?

Share buy back?
More projects?
Production?

Very "convenient" of AGS to release that report today
I like it

Go Nuke,

As Kennas has also mentioned, there is something questionable about the market cap.

One question that keeps on cropping up in my mind is "How many other companies are there out there, with this size marketcap, that have no end product"?

Something just doesn't add up.

As for the SP going higher...it can go 10 times higher if investing mania sets in.

Okay..I confess..i know nothing about mining...I don't know my E/PBs from my JORCS or PPMs

.....but what I do know is that investing in a lot of these stocks has moved away from the need for this analysis and more towards betting on how long this bull run will last.

It is especially wise to choose stocks based on a company's accounts AS WELL as mining potential.

Seriously considering stop losses on some of my holdings...AGS being one.

PG

 

[laurie]

Stop losses can hurt you especially with one like AGS

cheers laurie

 

[bigdog]

AGS has risen over the past nine days

Date------ Close Volume
03-May-07 2.78 753,581
02-May-07 2.71 946,083
01-May-07 2.66 1,653,429
30-Apr-07 2.79 2,442,958
27-Apr-07 2.55 2,081,386
26-Apr-07 2.40 880,308
24-Apr-07 2.37 619,341
23-Apr-07 2.35 629,993

Intersuisse recommends Buy Thursday May 3

AGS Alliance Resources -Buy for ongoing re-rating as uranium resources grow
http://www.intersuisse.com.au/files/Morning Note Thursday.pdf

Event
Further impressive uranium results received from drilling at the Four Mile
prospect of the Arkaroola project

Latest drilling results at the Four Mile West include 9.1m grading 1.84%
U3O8

Mineralisation at the Four Mile West prospect is still open to northwest

Further drilling results at the Four Mile East include 2.0m grading 1.37%
U3O8

Long-awaited initial resource statement being finalised

 

[Go Nuke]

Wow, thanks for posting that link Bigdog!

I found this part interesting...

"Our very preliminary estimate of the economic significance of the total potential resource at the 4 Mile Prospect indicates, they could have a Net Present Value to AGS of the order of $3.20-$4.40

And some people here are worried about what the market cap is like NOW

With such high grade U and "Open in many directions particularly to the North", combined with the ALP now turning power over to the staes in reguards to Uranium mining...I believe AGS may be one of the first to be up and running.

We all know how much Mr Rann like them..lol

 

[Sean K]

Breaking all time high, along with the rest of the ASX I suppose.

Cracking $700m market cap.

I'm still holding on but considering locking in some more profits. Possibly cash some in if it drops through support at $2.50 for a start. Maybe lift that up to $2.65 ish, if $2.75 becomes support.

Or, just hold on till it hits $10. LOL.

It's going to need a damn good JORC for this valuation to be worthy. Can't imagine it really, but it just keeps on going up.

 

[laurie]

Looking good hit a high today of $2.83 good volume extremely happy if they hit $3 by Friday if no JORC is released so one assume the price of Uranium is pushing this up @ $120US or $146AUS

cheers laurie

 

[laurie]

It's going to need a damn good JORC for this valuation to be worthy. Can't imagine it really, but it just keeps on going up.

Well you better sell now kennas because the JORC is only for the Western Zone you have to wait tell the end of the year or early next for the full estimate

cheers laurie

 

[Broadside]

Breaking all time high, along with the rest of the ASX I suppose.

Cracking $700m market cap.

I'm still holding on but considering locking in some more profits. Possibly cash some in if it drops through support at $2.50 for a start. Maybe lift that up to $2.65 ish, if $2.75 becomes support.

Or, just hold on till it hits $10. LOL.

It's going to need a damn good JORC for this valuation to be worthy. Can't imagine it really, but it just keeps on going up.

kennas kennas kennas, the JORC in the works is scratching the surface of the resource, if everyone in AGS has the same attitude as you then when the JORC is released the price action will be nasty. I won't be topping up, have too much exposure already, but I certainly won't be selling if there is such a knee jerk reaction. $14m on drilling this year that should add plenty of U to the first JORC.

 

[Ang]

Short term target $3.22 based on depth of daily darvas box at a break of $2.88. I also see a Saucer formation as in 1997 there was a $2.85 close and so was todays. The depth of the saucer gets you a medium term target of $5.65 if it breaks $2.90. Is this the next Palidin???
Kind regards
Ang

 

[Ang]

And here is the amazing saucer.

kind reg ang

 

[laurie]

Thought I never see another Paladin in the making I may well be wrong but it looks like its following the same path time will tell JMHO

cheers laurie

 

[Sean K]

I actually didn't know what to expect from this estimate, but I might have been hoping for over 40m lbs initially. This is 1km square, while the overall deposit is about 5km square, to various grades. Thoughts?

 

[Sean K]

I actually didn't know what to expect from this estimate, but I might have been hoping for over 40m lbs initially. This is 1km square, while the overall deposit is about 5km square, to various grades. Thoughts?

Looks like Mr Market's going to smash it. Some decent sells down the ask depth. All you punters out there saying this is 'the next PDN' will be buying up, I'm sure. Having made that quip, it might actually be sold off too much and it could be an opportunity. Well, at least there's some numbers there now and everyone can make a more 'informed' judgement about what AGS's 25% stake will be worth. Even if the deposit goes out to 5 x the 30m lbs, that's 150m total, and about 35m lbs to AGS. $700m cap?

 

[bigdog]

The market did not like todays announcement for the start of trading down 63 cents

Code Last Move -% Move Buy Sell Open --High Low Volume Value Last Traded
AGS 2.22 -0.630 -22.11% 2.15 2.16 2.30 2.30 2.13 845,860 1,923,621 08-May 10:01:07 AM