Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AGS - Alliance Resources

"Rann said that subject to Alliance and Quasar board approvals the Four Mile joint venture is planning to submit a mining lease application for development by the end of this year for development of "a major mine.""

Australian uranium again impacted by political swings and roundabouts

Conflicting policies have been announced by the State Premiers of Queensland and South Australia on uranium mining in their jurisdictions.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Monday , 02 Apr 2007

PERTH -

The Australian share market's view of political certainty for sweeping change by the Australian Labor Party (ALP) to its restrictive policy on uranium mining and exports took one step backwards and another forward today with comments by Labor Premiers in the key states of Queensland and South Australia.

This comes within less than four weeks before the national conference of the ALP meets to discuss major policy issues including whether the No New Mines policy would be changed to a more open policy on allowing new mines. Labor controls all state governments and has its Federal Leader Kevin Rudd leading Prime Minister John Howard in opinion polls, and Rudd will be leading the push for change.

Political observers had been seeing the party rump falling in line with Rudd's wish and that included Queensland Premier Peter Beattie. However, today Beattie told an ABC News programme that if conference gave the states discretion on this issue, then he would not allow uranium mining.

Clearly, the anti uranium hardliners in the party will be pushing for discretionary powers as a second fall back line and, if so, then Queensland with some of Australia's huge undeveloped deposits would close its doors, along with Western Australia where Premier Alan Carpenter has been saying for some time there would be no uranium mines under his reign.

The Northern Territory, where Chief Minister Clare Martin made it clear at her re-election last year that she would ban new uranium mines, is in a political conundrum for the Federal Liberal government made it clear that it was a dependency of Canberra which wants new mines, and that would happen.

A pro development policy may be invoked for the NT even if Rudd beats Howard at the next Federal election, however, one day in the life of Australian uranium politics is proving right now to be a variation on the next.

Beattie's comments will spook many investors in Queensland uranium stocks, including Summit Resources which owns 100% of several deposits near Mount Isa and owns other key deposits 50/50 with Paladin Resources which has mounted a hostile takeover.

However, the immediate response on he tAustralian Stock Exchange trading today was a minor slip in Summit's price by $A0.13 to the $A4.80 range.

In contrast to Queensland, the pro mining state of South Australia which hosts two of the country's uranium mines - BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam and Heathgate Resources' Beverley - made it clear it would be supporting an end to the ALP's current policy and development of one of the country's exciting new discoveries. This is Four Mile, near Beverley, where Heathgate's search arm Quasar Resources is earning 70% from junior Alliance Resources.

SA Premier Mike Rann, speaking from Chile, released today a statement to coincide with Alliance-Quasar's announcement of more drilling leading to a scoping and pre-feasibility study.

Last year SA's Mines Minister Paul Holloway told this writer that it had already granted SXR Uranium One a mining lease for its Honeymoon project in the same region as Beverley as a clear-cut sign that the state wanted to upend current ALP policy.

Rann also said today that the expansion of BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam mine would see uranium output rise from 4,000 tonnes per annum to 15,000 tpa - more than Canada's entire production. Though the current policy would not prevent Olympic Dam's expansion it "stands in the way of the further development of SA's potential."

Rann said that in February there were 166 mineral exploration licences for uranium in SA and a further 105 applications for licences.

There were 60 companies and individuals holding uranium licences, including Heathgate Resources, SXR Uranium One, PepinNini Minerals, Curnamona Energy and Marathon Resources.

Rann said that subject to Alliance and Quasar board approvals the Four Mile joint venture is planning to submit a mining lease application for development by the end of this year for development of "a major mine."

Alliance, as the public company on the Australian Stock Exchange, gave no indication of the growing resource at Four Mile which has two tandem roll front-style deposits that have given many high grade hits, particularly from intensive exploration on the most advanced Four Mile West Zone.

At last year's Broken Hill Exploration Initiative a paper was made available on research by the Lonsec group - that provides a service to Alliance - that placed Four Mile as already ahead of other Australian uranium deposits -- Yeelirrie, Valhalla and Kintyre, in grade terms, and the now maturing Ranger uranium mine for Energy Resources of Australia Ltd in the NT.

Ranger has performed well with a healthy grade of U3O8 of 0.16% but Lonsec considers Four Mile could well be 0.26% U3O8.

Four Mile, carrying the name of a nearby creek, is in the shadow of the North Flinders, where into the ranges Quasar also holds significant copper discoveries and there are other major uranium prospects, including Marathon's Mount Gee.

The Lonsec figures, based on Four Mile drilling to mid 2006, were estimated more on North America's broader resource interpretation than Australia's more stringent JORC Code. Four Mile Hill is being further drilled to initially get up to a JORC Code inferred resource. (Lonsec cites a "potential" resource in the East and West zones of 20.5 million tonnes grading 0.26% U3O8 for a contained 116M pounds). Drilling has focused on the Lower Roll Front with mineralisation to that time extending to between 160-180 metres depth in a broad sheet of sand system, as compared with the more sinuous channels of Beverley's lower grade mineralization, 10 kilometres away.

At the Broken Hill conference Quasar's exploration manager Geoff McConachy told this writer that Four Mile may well open up a new geological play for uranium in the Lake Frome-North Flinders region.

Grades picked up from the more intense drilling on the Four Mile West zone included 11m @ 0.8% U3O8, 9m @ 1.66% U3O8. 9.5m @ 0.97% and 3m @ 2.1% U3O8.

Heathgate is a subsidiary of General Atomics Group of the United States, a huge private company with uranium mining, trading and mine remediation subsidiaries in the US and the UIT group in Dresden in Germany.

As well as the Alliance JV, Heathgate has sown up joint ventures north and south of Beverley with Giralia Resources and with Paladin Resources.

http://www.mineweb.com:8080/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page38?oid=18953&sn=Detail
 
FOUR MILE URANIUM FIND COMING TO SURFACE

Barry Fitzgerald
April 3, 2007


CONFIRMATION that the Four Mile discovery of US group Heathgate and Melbourne-based Alliance Resources near Heathgate's Beverley uranium mine in South Australia is one of Australia's best has yet to occur, with an initial resource estimate still not made.

But the partners have done the next best thing by revealing that an eight-week scoping study has started and that it will lead to a pre-feasibility study and mining lease applications later this year.

Shares in the Melbourne-based Alliance surged 25 ¢, or 12 per cent, to $2.30 in response to the revelation, which had the effect of rekindling expectations that when the initial resource estimate is finally released ”” it was due before last Christmas ”” it could be something special.

Alliance has signalled previously that high-grade uranium hits at the discovery indicate potential for it to eventually be the biggest uranium deposit of its type in the world (roll-front, sandstone-hosted). Melbourne businessman Ian Gandel controls about 36 per cent of the company. Before the 2005 discovery of Four Mile, it was best known for its Maldon gold project in Victoria.

Alliance has a 25 per cent free-carried interest in Four Mile, named for its distance from the operating Beverley mine.

Operator and 75 per cent partner is Quasar Resources, the exploration arm of Heathgate (itself part of US group General Atomics), owner-operator of Beverley, which produced 854 tonnes of uranium in 2005-06.
 
Glenhaven, that article coupled with the latest statements by Rudd that basically states can decide their own uranium policy are very bullish for AGS. Add to that Heathcote spending $14m on holes and a gold project that looks positive.
 
I cant believe that only say 2 weeks ago, it was clear as day that the S.A government were mentioning that it would be AGS and Heathgate's etc etc resource that would likly turn into another Beverly Mine.......yet AGS share price is starting to slip backwards again!:eek:

Why does it feel like AGS is the only U company NOT going forward as much as others in the area????

Ok..I wont compare it to MTN..lol cuz there is obviuosly no comparison there. I hear its the difference in market cap between these two...but why else is AGS so slow to move in a positive direction?

Is it the 25% free carried interest?
Any help shed some light on this for me please.
Its fustrating.

Thx

:microwave
 
It's consolidating.

Market cap is high comparitively to other U players.

Market's now waiting for Quasar to get hold of the initial JORC, before rerating company either up, or down.

May be more consolidation to go.
 

Attachments

  • AGS.gif
    AGS.gif
    36.3 KB · Views: 128
I cant believe that only say 2 weeks ago, it was clear as day that the S.A government were mentioning that it would be AGS and Heathgate's etc etc resource that would likly turn into another Beverly Mine.......yet AGS share price is starting to slip backwards again!:eek:

Why does it feel like AGS is the only U company NOT going forward as much as others in the area????

Ok..I wont compare it to MTN..lol cuz there is obviuosly no comparison there. I hear its the difference in market cap between these two...but why else is AGS so slow to move in a positive direction?

Is it the 25% free carried interest?
Any help shed some light on this for me please.
Its fustrating.

Thx

:microwave

Go nuke

AGS is a nothing gold company that got lucky with the 4 mile find on its free carried tenements. Apart from that management appear to be ill equipped to improve the company any further. As a holder of a 25% free carry theres simply not much to be done, and no news will come. Heathgate a private operator motivated by self interest will produce whenever they feel like it. They are under no obligation to disclose anything to AGS. Not to mention as it only holds 25% of the JV, it is selling at exorbitant dollar per pound(like shopping in an upmarket department store). A disappointing JORC for the western zone is expected as its just for a tiny area. Eastern zone whilst sizeable is a LOW grade deposit averaging 300ppm hence should not be commanding a premium over stuff like Bannerman which is also low grade but in a better location.

It also compares poorly on a peer valuation with sector peers.

Assuming 25mil pounds in both areas its share, it is selling for 600/25 = $25/lb roughly. Market value being $600m.

MTN - mkt value $363M(even after SP increases)

BMN - mkt value ~$500m

PNN - mkt value ~$190m

BLR - mkt value $200m(a similar type of deposit to AGS)

DYL - mkt value $600m

All are trading at lower market caps, and probably have similar or much ""higher pounds in the ground""

Disclosure: Frustrated holder of 4700 AGS.
 
AGS is a nothing gold company that got lucky with the 4 mile find on its free carried tenements.
Quasar farmed in to AGS. AGS pegged it I believe. Lucky?

Apart from that management appear to be ill equipped to improve the company any further. As a holder of a 25% free carry theres simply not much to be done, and no news will come.
Correct, it's Quasar who are leading this up to the decision to mine. Criticising AGS for delayed results is not appropriate.

Heathgate a private operator motivated by self interest will produce whenever they feel like it. They are under no obligation to disclose anything to AGS.
It's not in Quasar/Heathgates interest to get this to mining stage rapidly? Why would they not want that? No obigation? Have you seen the MOU?

Not to mention as it only holds 25% of the JV, it is selling at exorbitant dollar per pound (like shopping in an upmarket department store).
The total JORCs not even out yet. It is no doubt at a high market cap, but we do not know what is actually there. Nice analogy.

A disappointing JORC for the western zone is expected as its just for a tiny area.
Reference? If it was expected why has it got such a large market cap?

Eastern zone whilst sizeable is a LOW grade deposit averaging 300ppm hence should not be commanding a premium over stuff like Bannerman which is also low grade but in a better location.
This is more advanced than BMN, scoping study will start immediately after the JORC is released which is imminent, it sits next to an adjacent U mine operated by it's JV partner, and is being promoted by the State Premier who has said he will be giving them a lisence to mine sometime toward the end of the year, after Labor give the States the power to make their own decisions to mine which Rudd has stated he will.
 
If it was expected why has it got such a large market cap?

Exploration potential. Re: comparison with BMN no real point, but i'm saying BMN has a lower mkt cap and it owns 80% of its deposits. Thats a joke enuff said.
 
Halba i agree this wait for jorc is frustrating.

Frustrating watching MTN BMN PNN SMM shoot skywards while AGS stalls.

I don't agree with the other statements.

I have learnt hard lessons before by trying to chase the flavor of the month only to watch the slow coach stock i was on bolt as soon as i jump off. :banghead:

With $14 million drilling program - jorc - scoping study - feasability study - mining licence + the increasing price of uranium this should be part of your superannuation.

This is the only stock i have that i will not trade because of the long term value.
 
And when Mr Rann mouthed off he knew what he was doing knowing the resource is locked in for mining :2twocents

cheers laurie
 
This bloke Halbut is the eternal pessimest, why waste your time going toe for toe with him???? Blind freddy can see where this one is going so he must be blinder than blind freddy.
 
Unfortunately danc your post adds nothing meaningful to this thread or the analysis of AGS. You have even spelled my nickname wrong. At least I use numbers to illustrate my point, why don't you use something to back up your statements other than "blind freddie can see to that". Nothing is a sure thing in the stock market. Sure a rising tide will lift all boats, and all stocks will benefit, but some will benefit more due to better fundamentals. AGS is about forty cents overvalued, probably too high >>$20/lb
 
Exploration potential. Re: comparison with BMN no real point, but i'm saying BMN has a lower mkt cap and it owns 80% of its deposits. Thats a joke enuff said.
I agree that comparison with BMN is not appropriate. It is not close enough to being a true 'peer' IMO. Reasosns are: ownership of assets, other projects, exploration potential, country, stage of exploration/development, quality of JV partner, vicinity to infrastructure including current mills, different environment regulations, etc etc. So, perhaps even comparing market caps to potential resources is futile.

Unfortunately danc your post adds nothing meaningful to this thread or the analysis of AGS. You have even spelled my nickname wrong. At least I use numbers to illustrate my point, why don't you use something to back up your statements other than "blind freddie can see to that". Nothing is a sure thing in the stock market. Sure a rising tide will lift all boats, and all stocks will benefit, but some will benefit more due to better fundamentals. AGS is about forty cents overvalued, probably too high >>$20/lb
I agree, danc you need to provide some more objective analysis to support your statements here. Then we can discuss things reasonably. And yes, Halba, nothing is a sure thing which you fail to recognise sometimes too. BMN and ERN are not 'sure things', as you have proclaimed. Please disagree with me there if you like. :) AGS overvalued by 40 cents? Is that at $20 lb v cap? I think there needs to be more discussion on this too. Remember, when valuing companies you need to take into consideration ALL their projects, exploration potential, plant, cash on hand, etc etc.

The high market cap concerns me, and I think that there is some blue sky factored into the sp at the moment, whether that be potential discoveries of IOCGU in Arkaroola, or a takeover premium. But, I can't put a figure on it with my limited FA abilities. Maybe in another 10 years or so. ;)
 
Go nuke

AGS is a nothing gold company that got lucky with the 4 mile find on its free carried tenements. Apart from that management appear to be ill equipped to improve the company any further. As a holder of a 25% free carry theres simply not much to be done, and no news will come. Heathgate a private operator motivated by self interest will produce whenever they feel like it. They are under no obligation to disclose anything to AGS. Not to mention as it only holds 25% of the JV, it is selling at exorbitant dollar per pound(like shopping in an upmarket department store). A disappointing JORC for the western zone is expected as its just for a tiny area. Eastern zone whilst sizeable is a LOW grade deposit averaging 300ppm hence should not be commanding a premium over stuff like Bannerman which is also low grade but in a better location.

Disclosure: Frustrated holder of 4700 AGS.

Quasar farmed into AGS and the resulting agreement between the 2 companies led to AGS being free carried until a decision to mine is made.
AGS does not have to spend 1 cent on drilling, on lab assays, labour, equipment, mapping, soil testing and also nothing on the licensing and permitting process, EIS or BFS...nothing.

You also comment that management are ill equipped to improve the company further. Care to provide any support to this argument? Based on what?

If you are just going to mention that the running of the project is in the hands of Heathgate and AGS have no control, then don`t bother responding because I for one and very happy with this partnership.

How many other juniors have the experience of an international uranium producer in their back pocket?

Do you really believe that Heathgate are going to sit on their **** and do nothing with regards to B4 Mile?.....don`t think so.

Although there has been no drilling updates and the JORC has been delayed, Alliance today sits around the same price it was about Christmas which imo show strong support for the fundamentals.

The top 20 shareholders control 55% of the shares on issue which leaves about 100 million to play with, and interesting to note that during the retrace that saw AGS slump to $1.40 recently, the top 20 increased their percentage.

We may have had no drilling results for a couple of months but that is out of managements control and so was the problem with the PFN logging tool
(little ol AGS has access to 2 PFN tools, from memory there are only about a dozen worldwide)

In the announcement to the ASX on the 15/3 this year, we were told that drilling at Four Mile West was completed.
We were also told that a soil survey had commenced and that 3 of the 4 monitor wells had been completed at Four Mile West and that they were set up with pumps and data loggers.

This tells me that AGS and our good buddies Heathgate are getting ready for a field leach trial which will also provide support for our Environmental Impact Statement.

Monitor wells are situated around each mineralised zone to detect any movement of mining fluids outside the mining area.
The wells are cased to ensure that mineralised fluids only flow to and from the ore zone and do not affect any overlying aquifers (see image below) but the water quality at Beverley is very poor to start with and unusable anyway which is a positive for the EIS.

This is why having Heathgate in you corner is a massive advantage, they`ve been there and know the correct steps to take to mine the resource.

As an example, in 1998 a field leach trial at Beverley was an outstanding success, with recoveries three times what was expected, and it established the commercial viability of the project.
A new draft EIS was released for public comment in July 1998 and the Supplement in October, with environmental and other approvals being given early in 1999. Production began the following year.........that's a 1998 field leach trial to production in just over 2 years.

So what have we got to look forward to?

First JORC for the High grade 1km squared due any day.

A 200 hole program for B4 East is underway and on a 200m x 100m grid and 100m by 100m grid in higher grade areas ($14 million budget)
ISL well fields are roughly spaced on a 30m x 30m grid so management will be well placed to map areas for the pumps which will be progressively established over the ore body.

Scoping study to begin after the first JORC is released and expected to take 8 weeks. I`m guessing they will ISL the whole deposit apart from the high grade western part which will be open pit to maximize grade.

Application for a mining lease this year and I suspect Rann is ready to give the green light and has a shovel at hand in case he gets a call to arms.

News flow had been poor so far but will be thick and fast in the remaining quarters this year.

Halba, you cannot simply estimate any $EV/lb for AGS because there is no concrete data to work off yet, it`s back of the envelope stuff at best and is flawed because every deposit is different.
You say it`s only 25% ...old news, 25% of what....... we will not know the full resource till late 07, early 08, and who knows there might be more major discoveries to the south.

If your so frustrated with your 4700 shares then simply sell em and move on.

What could you be waiting for?
 

Attachments

  • isldiagram1.jpg
    isldiagram1.jpg
    13.5 KB · Views: 89
  • B4milewest.jpg
    B4milewest.jpg
    45.5 KB · Views: 91
AGS moving strongly again, it is certainly well supported at these levels. Let the market decide. As you say spooly- like to be news in 3rd and 4th Q 2007. Nice diagram.
 
Top