Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rederob]

It has been a very interesting week, with the shining star being gold at its end.
Presently at an all-time high over $3230.
Although remaining ridiculously overbought, some markets can remain irrational much longer than reason would suggest.
And while Trump is somersaulting tariffs willy nilly there is every chance that global economic instability will continue for some months or longer.
Lots of questions. Are central banks buying big right now? Don't know yet as latest data is to end February:


What we know with certainty is that Russia and its contiguous friends have been the main sellers of bullion ths year, while net purchases in February this year (latest data) rose to 24 tonnes:



Holdings look like this:

And to close this post with POG at this minute we see +$3200ish holding for now:

 

[rederob]

Overnight saw an all-time record high for POG which peaked a tad above $3245 before taking a late breather.
The 2 charts below, while not definitive, show the strong recent positive correlation between monthly POG movements and net Gold ETF flows:



Anyone wanting to play with more data will find this correlation holds up well throughout 2024... go to https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2025/04?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=GOLDHUB:+Your+Weekly+Gold+Market+Round-up,+April+11,+2025

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

As the gold price increases the movements higher will increase in pure dollar terms, as will falls from these levels. Presently at $3236 a 1% rise is $32 so I'm not going to get carried away with large dollar increases.

Should gold reach $3336 that is just a 3% percent gain. Equally a fall of 3% brings one back to $2936, all approximate calculations.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

As the gold price increases the movements higher will increase in pure dollar terms, as will falls from these levels. Presently at $3236 a 1% rise is $32 so I'm not going to get carried away with large dollar increases.

Should gold reach $3336 that is just a 3% percent gain. Equally a fall of 3% brings one back to $2936, all approximate calculations.

gg

Finally, someone who has more than a passing comprehension of maths.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Finally, someone who has more than a passing comprehension of maths.
Mick

can't run a hotel otherwise

 

[farmerge]

can't run a hotel otherwise

Well someone has to be seen to be holding the front bar up!!!!!

 

[rcw1]

AFR Electronic

Gold could hit $US4500 as confidence in US havens crumbles​

Alex GluyasDeputy markets editor
Apr 14, 2025 – 11.49am

Australians loaded up on gold investments last week amid a historic exodus from the US bond market, adding fresh thrust to the precious metal’s record rally that could send prices soaring to as much as $US4500 an ounce.

The commodity, which typically rallies during times of uncertainty, surged 7 per cent last week to a fresh peak above $US3245 an ounce as investors around the world dumped US haven assets such as Treasuries and the greenback, amid a dramatic erosion of faith in the stability of the world’s largest economy.

Goldman Sachs has upped its year-end gold target to $US3700 an ounce, citing growing central bank demand and robust inflows into gold exchange-traded funds. The broker said prices could trade near $US4500 an ounce by the end of this year in an “extreme” scenario.

“I am personally of the view that gold and gold equities are entering a structural bull market,” Charlie Aitken, an investment director at Regal Partners, wrote in a note to clients over the weekend. “Multiple market sources cite that Beijing is actively selling down its holdings of US Treasuries and buying gold. This, in turn, is weakening the US dollar.”
Goldman Sachs said for gold to climb above $US4000, central bank demand would need to jump to 110 tonnes a month consistently, ETF holdings would have to rebound to the same levels as the pandemic by the end of the year, and positioning by traders would have to reach the top of its historical range.

“Gold could plausibly trade near $US4500 an ounce by the end of 2025,” said Goldman analyst Lina Thomas. “We view this as a very low probability event, but include it to illustrate the non-linear upside to gold prices.”

‘Beast mode’​

Either way, the flight to safety across global financial markets is intensifying amid the tit-for-tat between the US and China. Washington last week lifted its overall tariff on China to 145 per cent, while Beijing responded with a 125 per cent tax on US goods.
The anxiety temporarily eased over the weekend after US President Donald Trump paused import duties on a range of consumer electronics.
Fears that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies could tip the US into recession have pushed gold prices up more than 20 per cent already this year, and analysts are bullish that its next leg higher could be fuelled by a rotation out of American assets and into the precious metal.
“With heightened uncertainty and significant swings in global bond markets, investors are diversifying away from US safe haven assets like Treasuries into gold as an alternative store of value,” said Global X investment strategist Marc Jocum.

“Gold now is the premier safe haven asset … [and] could experience record-breaking inflows this month on the back of rapidly rising retail demand.”

Global X said its gold ETFs experienced a massive $38 million of inflows on Friday alone. That was its fifth-largest day on record and eclipsed only by episodes during the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic sell-off and a pre-US election surge in September last year.
Jocum believed that prices could be heading towards $US3500 an ounce as traders continue to sell other US havens.
The greenback slumped 2.4 per cent last week while the yield on the closely watched 10-year Treasury bond soared to roughly 4.5 per cent from just below 4 per cent – the most pronounced spike in nearly a quarter of a century.
“Gold seems to be the clear beneficiary of the debates raging around the US dollar, and we’ve witnessed the gold price in absolute beast mode,” said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone.
Gold prices initially sank 5 per cent after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on US trading partners on April 2 as investors liquidated positions to meet margin calls during the collapse in equity markets.
Citi was among a number of institutions that took profits on the precious metal a fortnight ago, but then decided to re-enter the trade last week, declaring that “the bulk of the selling pressure has unwound for now”.
UBS joined the growing chorus of major banks upgraded their gold forecasts on Monday, tipping that prices will average $US3500 an ounce next year. The broker upgraded ASX-listed producers Newmont to a “buy” rating and Regis Resources to “neutral”.

 

[mullokintyre]

To the folk who consider that gold is little more than a “pet rock”.
Those pet rocks are looking somewhat more valuable and more stable than BTC.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

To the folk who consider that gold is little more than a “pet rock”.
Those pet rocks are looking somewhat more valuable and more stable than BTC.
Mick

would be quite willing to adopt some of those rocks if the price were to plummet

 

[farmerge]

would be quite willing to adopt some of those rocks if the price were to plummet

I'd be quite prepared to just take some off their hands if anyone find taking the pet for daily walk. More than happy to oblige.

 

[Sdajii]

To the folk who consider that gold is little more than a “pet rock”.
Those pet rocks are looking somewhat more valuable and more stable than BTC.
Mick

I'm definitely one of those who correctly sees gold holders as pet rock owners. Doesn't stop me from having a few of my own little one ounce pets. I'm a pretty disloyal pet owner though - I've never even visited mine and will sell them to the highest bidder when the time is right.

With a market cap of over US$21T Gold is the largest (though not the most extreme - Bitcoin probably takes that one at least out of those with notable size) Ponzi scheme the world has ever seen (Chinese real estate is arguably a competitor for the title - larger market cap but it's more difficult to calculate the amount of it which goes above intrinsic value). It probably won't collapse for generations, maybe not for thousands of years, probably centuries, but one day it will, unless all the humans die first.

I certainly wouldn't want to be holding Chinese real estate, I wouldn't want to hold Bitcoin with a long term view, but investing in those shiny yellow pet rocks should be a good strategy for us and several generations of our offspring. That doesn't mean it isn't completely stupid. Make no mistake, the value of gold is based on human stupidity and irrationality.

 

[farmerge]

I'm definitely one of those who correctly sees gold holders as pet rock owners. Doesn't stop me from having a few of my own little one ounce pets. I'm a pretty disloyal pet owner though - I've never even visited mine and will sell them to the highest bidder when the time is right.

With a market cap of over US$21T Gold is the largest (though not the most extreme - Bitcoin probably takes that one at least out of those with notable size) Ponzi scheme the world has ever seen (Chinese real estate is arguably a competitor for the title - larger market cap but it's more difficult to calculate the amount of it which goes above intrinsic value). It probably won't collapse for generations, maybe not for thousands of years, probably centuries, but one day it will, unless all the humans die first.

I certainly wouldn't want to be holding Chinese real estate, I wouldn't want to hold Bitcoin with a long term view, but investing in those shiny yellow pet rocks should be a good strategy for us and several generations of our offspring. That doesn't mean it isn't completely stupid. Make no mistake, the value of gold is based on human stupidity and irrationality.

Now instead if granite or coffee rock were the gold of choice, then we all be multi billionaires, well at least I would be as we have a serious tonnage of both on the farms.

 

[finicky]

.. the value of gold is based on human stupidity and irrationality.

Yeah, no. It presumably originally became valued because beautiful objects could be made from it. But then became valued for money and as a unit of account based again on its attractiveness, rarity and 'fungibility'. No one's going to dispute the rational value of these properties. Added to which, it is highly malleable and ductile well suited to coinage and elaborate objects. So not stupid, not irrational, and again .. you're wrong (runs away)

 

[Sdajii]

Now instead if granite or coffee rock were the gold of choice, then we all be multi billionaires, well at least I would be as we have a serious tonnage of both on the farms.

Granite would be weird since there's so much, but if somehow it happened, all the granite would have been mined and stored in huge warehouses and would be worth a lot less per unit of size/mass than gold (assuming a similar market cap).

Coffee rock is probably even less realistic.

Yeah, no. It presumably originally became valued because beautiful objects could be made from it. But then became valued for money and as a unit of account based again on its attractiveness, rarity and 'fungibility'. No one's going to dispute the rational value of these properties. Added to which, it is highly malleable and ductile well suited to coinage and elaborate objects. So not stupid, not irrational, and again .. you're wrong (runs away)

It originally became valued because you could find nuggets of it in metallic state sitting on the surface of the ground and it never rusts or tarnishes. It's basically the only metal you can find out in the open in metallic state and the only one which won't rust (other than maybe platinum which you're never going to find naturally without heavy excavations etc).

Indeed, it was a beautiful metal to work with both visually and practically, back when other metals could not be produced using modern methods. Back in the day, being ductile, maleable and non corrosive gave it high value for practical reasons.

Over time, the sentimental value of it grew - this is the irrational part. Being a fantastic non corrosive conductor makes it brilliant for everything from electronics to teeth fillings (not that conductivity is relevant there). The irrational part comes as soon as we take a wonderful material and store it as a pet rock in a warehouse or as an ornament/display of wealth or power as opposed to putting it to practical use. If aliens are watching us, they are saying we are irrational idiots because the majority of this wonderful material is not being used in electronics and plating for corrosion resistance etc, this wonderful material is stored in warehouses where often it isn't even looked at. If you want to say I'm wrong for saying that is stupid and irrational, hey, I don't want to disturb your fantasy.

 

[finicky]

You have an unhealthy need to always be right. Verbosely so. Reach out for help. There's nothing to be ashamed of.

 

[Sdajii]

You have an unhealthy need to always be right. Verbosely so. Reach out for help. There's nothing to be ashamed of.

If I needed to always be right I think I'd have killed myself by now! It's no secret I've made plenty of mistakes and been wrong no shortage of times!

But in this case we just have a clear reality of gold's value being based on irrationality.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening gold believers,
Really good PoG, dilly dallying around US$3200's .... mostly, past 4 or so days.

Nice.

Even nicer to know Australia, great country that it is, contributes handsomely to savouring the worldly appetite for gold ...



Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

If I needed to always be right I think I'd have killed myself by now! It's no secret I've made plenty of mistakes and been wrong no shortage of times!

But in this case we just have a clear reality of gold's value being based on irrationality.

If gold is irrational, how does a piece of paper with a signature hold up?

Is there a better exchange alternative?

Maybe we go back to cowrie shells.

 

[divs4ever]

If I needed to always be right I think I'd have killed myself by now! It's no secret I've made plenty of mistakes and been wrong no shortage of times!

But in this case we just have a clear reality of gold's value being based on irrationality.

i would rather have a piece of gold than a piece of paper ( or polymer ) that represents nothing more than a promise made by a Government that changes it's mind at a whim ( and there are plenty of governments like that )

 

[divs4ever]

If gold is irrational, how does a piece of paper with a signature hold up?

Is there a better exchange alternative?

Maybe we go back to cowrie shells.

or pearls or salt , it is a mutually recognized item of exchange

it is gold that is more durable than many past rivals in recognized trading

in a desert water would be more precious than gold ( or oil )