Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rcw1]

wow ... the power of gold... bloody marvelous and some

 

[Sean K]

That line across 2720 is causing trouble.

It seems those lines are clearly broken.

 

[rcw1]

It seems those lines are clearly broken.

obliterated ...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It seems those lines are clearly broken.

6 months to make hay? Keeps on getting pushed back. Topping targets on S&P500, DJIA, Russell Index, Gold (US$3,400), Silver ($75)

You guys are probably correct…but… it’s only a 10% gain to hit $3000 so when I believe it’s going to smash through there I’ll buy. Risk/reward not there for big bets, gold being one of only 3 things I have big bet on.

I’m not selling what I’ve got but I’m looking at (more hoping for) a retracement close to $2500 or a move higher that has the momentum to carry on to $3500 or higher.

So far the Trump volatility is up. Where are the scary monsters to scare the bejaysus out of everyone piling in to Gold or a move in the $USD to moderate gold ?

gg

 

[rcw1]

US$2800 coming right up …

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[ducati916]

​ ​ SCOOP: China Continues Making Covert Gold Purchases in London​ JAN NIEUWENHUIJS JAN 29 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Written by Jan Nieuwenhuijs, originally published at Money Metals. While the gold space has been obsessed over the gold streaming from London to New York in reaction to President Donald J. Trump’s tariff threats, even as it had little effect on price, the bigger story is that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is quietly stockpiling gold at a frenetic rate. Direct gold exports from the U.K. to China—a proxy for PBoC purchases—remained impressively strong in November at 50 tonnes. As the Chinese central bank (PBoC) in 2024 has secretly bought approximately 600 tonnes with $50 billion U.S. dollars, it’s confident about where the dollar price of gold is going: UP. An Exceptional Bull Case for Gold​ Since February 2023, I have been publishing evidence of the PBoC buying significantly more gold than what it reports to the IMF. These purchases have broken the West’s dominance in the market by driving the price higher (see here and here). I found the smoking gun of the PBoC’s secret gold operations in November 2024. As private demand in China declined and premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) turned negative in September, Chinese imports remained robust. For those with knowledge of the Chinese market, there can only be one explanation for stout inflows when SGE gold is trading at a discount: the central bank is bringing in gold. It also fits hand in glove with the other evidence. There can be no reasonable doubt that export of large 400-ounce gold bars from the London OTC market to China reflect PBoC purchases. 400-ounce bars aren’t even traded over the Chinese central bourse (SGE).​ ​ Chart 1. Virtually zero large bars have ever traded over the SGE. After I published these revelations, Goldman Sachs replicated my work for themselves, which in time will help bring this story to a wider audience. Western institutional investors have already spotted this trend in 2024 and joined the bull market. Before long, this will go mainstream and gold could more than double in price this decade. How Much Gold Did the PBoC Buy in November?​ In my last article, I wrote:​ The PBoC’s "unreported" purchases in London accounted for a stunning 60 tonnes in September and another 55 tonnes in October. ...while cross-border trade statistics from the U.K. for November have yet to be released, I foresee another purchase of a similar magnitude. By now we know from U.K. customs (HMRC) that it was 50 tonnes, bringing total exports to China since 2022 to 1,050 tonnes. Over this period, China’s monetary authority has bought at least three times as much gold than formally reported.​ ​ Chart 2. Note that London is not the only place where the PBoC snaps up gold. I was able to foresee strong buying because Chinese customs (GACPRC) is quicker to release its statistics than HMRC. For November—when the SGE was still trading at a discount—China’s gross import accounted for 124 tonnes. Nations don’t import 124 tonnes when demand is subdued. And again, the majority of this gold was imported into the Beijing region where the central bank vaults are located. All signals flash PBoC buying. ​ Chart 3. In November China also imported gold from Hong Kong, Switzerland, and Canada. China, as well as Saudi Arabia, are obviously preparing for a multipolar world in which the dollar’s role as a reserve asset will be gently reduced. Gold’s hedging benefits against geopolitical shocks, and fears of a debt spiral and yield curve control will keep central bank gold demand in the East structurally higher. (Eastern central banks own a lot less monetary gold relative to their Western counterparts.) ​ Chart 4. Gold’s share of international reserves is rising fast, from 10% in 2015 to 20% in 2024. There is no indication the PBoC has bought any Bitcoin.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @ducati916

I feel more comfortable that Gold is not going to retrace and that $USD 3000 is easily obtainable and in these feverish times $USD 3500 quite soon. The icing on the cake for me was the stripping of London's gold and transfer to New York in anticipation of the Bronze Loon applying tariffs to such transfers. This had never occurred to me until reading of it yesterday afternoon.

So I added to my PMGOLD and am bullish again. The Chinesee cousins buying again means that the other BRICS cannot be too far behind. It is quite possible that the $USD may fall with a possible rate cut next time by the Fed. which will add to it's course up.

Interesting times indeed.

gg

 

[rcw1]

To quote the great rugby league coach Jack Gibson, "Ding dong the witch is dead" ...

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[finicky]

• Gold: Gold prices hit a record high of US$2,798 overnight (also trading at a record A$4,500). Gold Miners ETF (GDX) surged 4.0% to a near four-month high. This should set up local names for a very strong session.

 

[Sean K]

• Gold: Gold prices hit a record high of US$2,798 overnight (also trading at a record A$4,500). Gold Miners ETF (GDX) surged 4.0% to a near four-month high. This should set up local names for a very strong session.

My Kangaroos are hopping out of the yard. This is quite a sight.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold reached a new all-time high of $2,817.21 per ounce and after setting a double-top at this level, prices slid back to trade around $2,800 per ounce for the duration of Friday's trading session.

One would normally expect a larger retracement from an ath such as this but it seems to have held. The fundamentals indicate it will go higher. Who knows? I'd rather be a bull than a bear on this though. It closed at $2795 for the weekend which is $AUD 4500.

gg

 

[moXJO]

Took the kids gold panning today. Found a bunch of specks. Not taking it up as a hobby.

Hoping it's like bitcoin and those specks go to the moon.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.mining.com/web/jpmorgan-plans-4-billion-gold-delivery-in-us-amid-tariff-fears/

 

[ducati916]

	In the weeks and months ahead, there is going to be considerable discussion about the cash markets for gold and silver becoming ‘disorderly’. In reality what will be happening is order being restored to the cash/spot price discovery of physical gold and silver market after decades of rigged price setting in London utilizing London’s cash market promissory note metal pricing system. The Bank of England (BoE) was given authority over the London Gold and Silver Market in 1986 through the ‘Big Bang’ Financial Services Act. You can read about how, after this legislation was enacted, the BoE then oversaw creation of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in 1987 with its voluntary rules, along with endorsement of trading of promissory notes in the gold and silver cash/spot market instead of trading specific allocated and segregated bars. See here: https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/the-bank-of-englands-role-in-the By utilizing trading of cash/spot market promissory notes for immediate ownership of gold and silver bars in London to set the daily price of gold and silver in the world’s largest cash precious metals market, the BoE effectively converted these limited supply metals in the London market into virtual assets that could be created without limit. The current BoE Governor Andy Bailey dismisses the importance of the current shortage of gold in London, as a relatively small percentage of the estimated 400 million (M) gold oz. of issued cash/spot notes are exercised for metal delivery, in the following short comment. Bailey indicates that this London gold shortage is not a matter of import to the world financial markets or BoE policy because gold does not “play the role it used to play”. Bailey does not explain why, if gold and silver are so unimportant, that the BoE has overseen the City of London market’s rigging of the price of these two important warning signals of monetary inflation since 1987 allowing the blowing of the largest global debt bubble in history as these metals were subdued with paper tools. In reality, the world faces a nascent bond market crisis and much higher interest rates as the London metals racket collapses. No discussion of that either. UK M.P. John Glen Asks BoE Governor Andy Bailey About London Gold Shortage And Growing US Stockpile In New York Governors of the BoE since it took oversight control in 1986 of the world’s largest gold and silver cash market destroying price discovery of these metals in The City of London are: Robin Leigh-Pemberton 1983–1993 Sir Edward George 1993–2003 Sir Mervyn King 2003–2013 Mark Carney 2013–2020 Andrew Bailey 2020–present Sprott Money’s Andrew Sleigh Discusses The Growing Global Physical Gold And Silver Shortage​ In the following excellent interview of Sprott Money’s Andrew Sleigh by Francis Hunt ‘The Market Sniper’ we hear that the Royal Canadian Mint (RCM) has stopped delivery of kilogram gold bars and 100 oz. silver bars to metals dealers. The RCM is giving no indication as to when the delivery of these larger products will resume. We also hear that sovereign mints globally are giving notice that they are ‘low’ on gold. If the reader would like to reach Andrew Sleigh can be reached here at Extension #230: https://www.sprottmoney.com/contact After listening to the interview with Andrew I contacted him and was impressed with his knowledge. ​

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

What happens to the POG when physical can’t be delivered?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

What happens to the POG when physical can’t be delivered?

It happened at the beginning of Covid when flights were restricted and there was a temporary small increase in POG as orders could not be settled . This may be more significant as it is associated with the politics of tariffs, inflation, bonds etc. via the Fed. throw in bitcoin and anything could happen. But who knows really.

It also depends on the cost of transporting the metal. During Covid gold was going as freight in passenger planes. Some say it will affect silver more than gold because of the extra weight of the 500 and 1000oz bars which will require dedicated freight planes.

gg

 

[farmerge]

It happened at the beginning of Covid when flights were restricted and there was a temporary small increase in POG as orders could not be settled . This may be more significant as it is associated with the politics of tariffs, inflation, bonds etc. via the Fed. throw in bitcoin and anything could happen. But who knows really.

It also depends on the cost of transporting the metal. During Covid gold was going as freight in passenger planes. Some say it will affect silver more than gold because of the extra weight of the 500 and 1000oz bars which will require dedicated freight planes.

gg

So if things generally go belly-up then gold will continue to rise and for those holding bullion it possibly could be a tidy cash profit, either in real terms or on paper.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So if things generally go belly-up then gold will continue to rise and for those holding bullion it possibly could be a tidy cash profit, either in real terms or on paper.

From what I've read of it the situation as it occurs, it is not as cut and dry that a retail holder such as I could catch a supply problem. There are people paid just to keep on top of delivery of gold, stockpiles and gold in transit.

It is a fact that London is very protective of it's role as the centre of the gold trade so even if the Americanos tried to shift that stateside it would be difficult to do so. It would be rare that someone would "just turn up" looking for gold they had paid for as futures in the past that was not actually available. Most of the settlements are on paper and arrangements on paper are easier to do than worry about physical gold.

gg

 

[ducati916]

Trump is very good for gold:



Which is Trump threatening to sanction anyone, just like Russia was sanctioned re. their UST's.

But it goes much further:


IEEPA can also be used to disincentivize the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, if the Administration wills it. If the root cause of dollar overvaluation is demand for reserve assets, Treasury can use IEEPA to make reserve accumulation less attractive.


One way of doing this is to impose a user fee on foreign official holders of Treasury securities, for instance withholding a portion of interest payments on those holdings. Reserve holders impose a burden on the American export sector, and withholding a portion of interest payments can help recoup some of that cost.


Some bondholders may accuse the United States of defaulting on its debt, but the reality is that most governments tax interest income, and the U.S. already taxes domestic holders of UST securities on their interest payments. While this policy works through currencies as a means of affecting economic conditions, it is actually a policy targeting reserve accumulation and not a formal currency policy.


Legally, it is easier to structure such a policy as a user fee rather than a tax, to avoid running afoul of tax treaties. Such policy is not a capital control, since aiming it exclusively at the foreign official sector targets reserve accumulation rather than private investment.

Full report:

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

Bit of a read, but useful if you want to see what Trump is up to.

jog on
duc