Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

RRL - Regis Resources

My best goldie today. Tack another dollar onto the share price and I'm outta here. I put a fair bit into this around 8 years ago because I thought it was the most conservative gold miner. I thought Northern Star, which I was also accumulating, was risky by comparison. Looks like it will clear the prior swing high of ~2.34, then ~2.45 will be the ultimate challenge - third time lucky, as is often the case when busting resistance. The base is now well over 2 years old - that's enough.

Held
Waiting to vomit it up.

WEEKLY, not showing today's 6% rise
big (91).gif
 
The Blue-Banded Bee Dreaming Conspiracy has some wings.

Plibo is being dipped in honey and put on an ant's nest.

Surely, she's going to get stung on this one.

Screenshot 2024-10-17 at 15.57.19.png
 
The Blue-Banded Bee Dreaming Conspiracy has some wings.

Plibo is being dipped in honey and put on an ant's nest.

Surely, she's going to get stung on this one.

View attachment 186037
must be from Annerley ( Brisbane ) in Queensland , they have blue-banded bees there , i have seen them ( in daylight and resting at night ) , i had no idea they dreamed though .

( i hold RRL )

PS and they have existed there since at least 2006
 
The Blue-Banded Bee Dreaming Conspiracy has some wings.

Plibo is being dipped in honey and put on an ant's nest.

Surely, she's going to get stung on this one.

View attachment 186037
Just a political stunt.
The coalition have zero chance of it getting through the senate.
The greens will side with labour to kill off a mine every time.
That gives them 36 of the required 38 senate votes to vote it down.
Only need to bribe two of the independents or UAP senator and its dead in the water.
mick
 
October 24 update: Massive price rally during October. Can it continue?

Qrtly report to Sept 24: Gold production of 94.5koz at A$2495/oz

MD says it all at the start of his report, "This Sept quarter was turbulent, with strong business performance combined with very frustrating development at our McPhillamys Project."

RRL writes off $192M of historic development costs in their McPhillamys project.

The movie title, The Good Bad and Ugly comes to mind when looking at Regis. I maintain a positive outlook for RRL but couldn't buy it now after the strong price rally. May it continue for my yearly comp performance.
 
RRL @ 2.40 today. Breakout from 2 year base was @ 2.45 by my observation, so messing around with the breakout. I think it has room. Doesn't look as bad as Northern Star at the moment (gulp)

Held
Tradeable

WEEKLY
big - 2024-11-15T033014.315.gif
 
Nov 24 update: Fired up after scuttling and fighting the ministerial decision.

Making money hand over fist (AISC A$2286) and holds record cash.

Duketon - WA - May open a fourth underground mine.
Tropicana - WA - Open pit and 2 (maybe 3) underground mines.
McPhillamys - NSW - Scuttled by Minister, decision being legally reviewed.

Price showing relative strength against GDX after the strong rally post scuttling.

rrlnov.PNG
 
This Labor Government ..

From The Daily Telegraph

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Heritage Protection Act applications mainly target resources projects not renewables​

Indigenous heritage protection applications are “heavily distorted” towards mining projects over renewable schemes, documents show. See the map.

Exclusive: Indigenous cultural conservation claims have been targeted at 30 mining and pipeline projects but just two renewables proposals since 2012, an investigation reveals.
A full list of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Heritage Protection Act applications during that time also shows many individual resources developments have been hit with multiple objections.

And, according to the records obtained by this masthead using freedom of information (FOI) laws, some complaints are withdrawn only to be strategically reactivated at a later date.

In all there have been more than 40 applications against the 30 proposals to extract gold, coal, gas and other deposits; there has been one opposing wind turbines and one protesting a solar farm.

Shadow Environment Minister Jonathon Duniam said: “It is curious that these claims are heavily distorted towards stopping mining projects whereas renewables projects like wind farms and solar projects, that take up swathes of space, are mostly untouched.”

The resources industry argues the heritage protection system has been hijacked and no longer works properly – for Indigenous Australians or project proponents.

Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) CEO Warren Pearce said the Albanese government was “changing the way” heritage protection decisions were made.

“It’s sending a shockwave through the mining industry and also investors,” Mr Pearce said.

Certainty had “gone out the window” since Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek made a heritage protection declaration in August against Regis Resources’ $5 billion McPhillamys gold project near Orange in NSW, he said.

The project had state and federal approval but was sent back to the drawing board because Ms Plibersek found a proposed tailings dam would damage an area of cultural importance in the blue-banded bee dreaming story.

The Orange Local Aboriginal Land Council and NSW Aboriginal Land Council did not support the heritage protection application, made by a single Wiradjuri elder.

Mr Pearce said the McPhillamys decision “really surprised people because they (Regis) had done everything they were supposed to”.

Regis has said it will take up to 10 years to identify and gain approval for an alternative tailings site. The company has filed proceedings in the Federal Court seeking a ruling that Ms Plibersek’s order was “legally invalid”. It wants the decision redetermined by a different minister.

Minerals Council of Australia CEO Tania Constable said that through the McPhillamys decision, the federal government had undermined investor confidence.

“Heritage protection laws have increasingly been weaponised by activist groups, often funded by taxpayers, to delay or block mining projects,” she said.

“This is not what these laws were designed for.”

Among the applications covered in the FOI document release was one by the Environmental Defenders Office “on behalf of” six elders against a Santos gas pipeline slated to run to the west of the Tiwi Islands.

The application was withdrawn in February this year, in a move Ms Plibersek’s office said was not related to the dismissal – in a scathing judgment a month earlier – of a Federal Court case brought by the EDO on behalf of Tiwi elders over the pipeline.

While few heritage protection applications end up being granted, Mr Pearce said nearly all take more than a year to resolve.

Some resource project proponents are still waiting for decisions on applications lodged in 2021.

Funding can fall over during the wait, Mr Pearce claimed.

The government argued that a pending application did not delay or stop work.

Ms Plibersek’s spokeswoman also said the rate of new heritage protection applications “has halved under Labor”.

The documents released under FOI show that between 2012 and the middle of this year, there was one application against a renewables proposal – a failed bid to stop a Tasmanian wind project.

However, in July, Queensland’s Bigambul Native Title Aboriginal Corporation applied to protect an area near Goondiwindi from construction of the Gunsynd solar farm.

The existence of the application is being made public for the first time today.

This masthead repeatedly attempted to contact the corporation and the owners of the Gunsynd project, Singapore’s Metis Energy. Further detail of the application was requested from Ms Plibersek’s office but nothing was provided.

Comment on the trend within heritage applications was sought from the First Nations Heritage Protection Alliance.

Housing developments and government infrastructure projects are also the target of applications, but not in the same volume as resources projects.

Future Labor PM? Easy on the make-up, nothing really can be done.

e15ef918b86e99dd6a2970a81ef0f3e4.jpeg
 
Half a billion in the bank. What are they doing with it?

I suppose some of it was for the blue banded bee mine.

Screenshot 2025-01-08 at 10.13.53.png
 
Good cash+bullion build for the Dec Quarter. Consecutive 52 week highs. Now I'm only down ~ $1000 bucks!
Cost of McPhillamys is pretty inconsequential looking forward, only $10-15m guided for entire FY25. I imagine that's pretty much it? Unless they win their appeal against Plibersek and board proceeds with development which I hope they don't if I'm still holding at that point. I wonder if they can sue the Vic Govt for sunk costs if they fail with the appeal?

Held
Sell prospect

Costs are in Aus dollars
Screenshot_20250123_144741_Samsung Notes.jpg
big - 2025-01-23T144846.714.gif
 
  • Regis Resources (RRL) -6.63% lower on a Goldman Sachs downgrade to sell after stellar share price performance, notably there were several price target upgrades from the street – GS recommendation carrying a bit more weight than others.
  • This has been a trend this week as really strong share price performance across the gold sector has rendered them expensive, and brokers have re-cut their recommendations (generally lower) post production reports.
Held
 
From Market Matters today
  • Regis Resources Cut to Hold at Argonaut Securities; PT A$3.50
  • Regis Resources Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT A$3.10
 
a snippet from a recent Bell Potter research


December quarter 2024 report

RRL released its full report for the December 2024 quarter, having previously reported attributable gold production of 101.3koz (vs BPe 92.9koz and 94.5koz qoq),comfortably ahead of the run-rate required to meet FY25 guidance of 350-380koz.
All In-Sustaining-Costs (AISC) of A$2,317/oz were lower than forecast (BPe A$2,642/oz)and also tracking below the lower half of the FY25 guidance range of A$2,440/oz -A$2,740/oz.
Lower costs and full exposure to the rising gold price delivered RRL record cash and bullion at 31 December of $529m, up $149m from $380m qoq and equating to record cash addition to the balance sheet of $1,471/oz. This has enabled early repayment of RRL’s fully drawn $300m debt facility post quarter-end.
RRL is now completely unhedged and debt free.

Cash generation leading the way

This is an excellent result for RRL. It is helping build a consistent track record of delivery, creating an extremely strong financial position with multiple options for capital allocation and driving a re-rating in the market with its sector-leading rates of cash generation. In terms of capital allocation, RRL has chosen early repayment of its fully drawn $300m debt facility post quarter-end, saving ~$18m per year in interest and finance costs.

Organic growth, M&A, share buybacks and dividends are now options for RRL.
In our view it is likely that RRL will want to maintain financial flexibility, build a solid cash balance through FY25 and invest in organic growth before committing to dividends or M&A.

Investment thesis –
Buy,
TP $3.75/sh (from Buy, $3.35/sh)
EPS changes in this report are FY25:
+13%, FY26: +51%, FY27: +22%, driven by our higher A$ gold price forecast, higher D&A charges and lower cash tax payments.
We are attracted to RRL’s all-Australian, multi-mine asset portfolio, its demonstrated leverage to the gold price, sector leading cash generation and its fully unhedged, debt-free position.

Our NPV-based valuation lifts by 12% to $3.75/sh. We retain our Buy recommendation.

i hold RRL

am a little disappointed Bell thinks RRL will refrain ( in the near term ) from paying divs.

i have no RRL orders currently in the market and no immediate plans to add or reduce

but the market seems to love a growth story .. so MAYBE February
 
Top