Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

RRL - Regis Resources

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finicky said:
Yeah, that's just rat cunning Albanese amplifying Plibersek's aforesaid obfuscation. The company has admitted that there were other options considered for the tailings dam but this banned one was what the company did all its due diligence on over four years of work on feasibility and step by step going through the applications process. Now that this option is refused the company would have to redo the feasibility and go through all the application processes again. The company suggested years added on to get to go but still without final go being guaranteed.
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Well the ALP got the boot in the NT.

Word here in Queensland that they've lost the upcoming State election and also will probably lose Federally next year.

I cannot understand how a party can be so highjacked by a so-called intelligentsia. Albanese has never had a proper job in his life.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I cannot understand how a party can be so highjacked by a so-called intelligentsia.
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by careful and persistent planning , often at the tolerance of a ( now betrayed ) union who has persistently funded them

i have watched this process since the rise of Gough Whitlam ( often via insights of mid-level unionists )

Malcolm X gave us a brilliant explanation of the US version ( just substitute worker for negro )

for a better explanation read Power without Glory by Frank Hardy ( which of course is only a novel 😉 )
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Well the ALP got the boot in the NT.

Word here in Queensland that they've lost the upcoming State election and also will probably lose Federally next year.

I cannot understand how a party can be so highjacked by a so-called intelligentsia. Albanese has never had a proper job in his life.

gg
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The problem is the opposition are no better in many respects.
they are mostly recycled political staffers, with little experience out in the big wide world where you actually have to try and make money.
Mick
 
August 2024 update: What can I report that hasn't already been said. How about, "We was robbed! " by that absurd, farcical, last minute ministerial decision.

Surprisingly RRL share price has risen each day since that announcement. There's lots of media involvement over the secrecy and non-transparency of that decision. It ain't over yet.
 
Plibo is in trouble here.

Screenshot 2024-08-31 at 18.49.45.png
 
Brian Chu's take fwiw (I let my paid subscription lapse a couple of years ago and am not tempted to return)
He sees fault in RRL's planning in that they should've been highly cautious in selecting the tailings site, i.e not necessarily the ideal commercial option for the siting but the least possibly sensitive one. I will back this apportioning of fault because RRL management have shown pathetic Judgement before. My emphasis:

Who’s at fault for the delay at the McPhillamys
and Bowdens mines?​

The decision to start the McPhillamys and Bowdens mines is long overdue. These two projects sat on the state government’s waiting list for over a decade.

Both should already be pumping out tonnes of gold, silver, and lead, creating jobs, and boosting the state’s coffers.

However, these projects are still a plot of dirt right now.

Both projects only secured approvals to begin construction in the past year. To build these projects now would be costly. McPhillamys will now cost nearly $1 billion to bring into operation, almost five times its 2017 estimates.

For Bowden, the cost is likely around $400–500 million today, compared to $250 million in 2018.

Much to these companies’ frustrations, these projects are now on hold! One for cultural heritage reasons and another due to locals raising concerns about the development plans.

Now, it’s easy to blame Big Government. We’ve seen environmental groups pressure the government to go green, save the wildlife and block plans to develop near towns, schools, and parks.

And don’t forget last year’s The Voice referendum sought to make lasting changes on land ownership and development. Even though the vote didn’t pass, it hasn’t stopped the government from using it to hold up development. That’s what happened with McPhillamys.

But there’s more to it than that.

At The Australian Gold Conference, an experienced geologist took me aside to discuss both projects. He revealed that the Regis Resources committed a major error when it proposed to build the tailings storage facility on the Belabula River. This river bears cultural and heritage value to the local Wiradjuri people.

Interestingly, after the decision by Minister Plibersek, the elders of the local tribe came out to voice their support for the project. They criticised the group that petitioned the minister, saying they didn’t reflect their interests.

From the geologists perspective, however, that didn’t take Regis Resources off the hook. Management could’ve sought alternatives to avoid that controversy altogether.

Regarding the Bowdens project, he highlighted the issue of powering the project with transmission lines. This was the pressure point the Bingham Community Landcare Group used to win their appeal. He believed that the Bowden mine is vulnerable to locals seeking to block its development because it’s located near the town of Lue.

Moreover, the mine produces hazardous lead. Therefore, his view was again that management needed to exercise extra caution to keep the locals on side. This latest appeal, which delays the project, came down to poor planning.

So, you can see that these companies are partly to blame.

Regardless of who’s at fault, locals in these two regions may need to wait another year (or more) before these mines can go ahead and boost the local economy.

Meanwhile, shareholders of these companies will have to stomach some losses or lost opportunities.

"Incidentally, Regis Resources is one of my recommendations in my precious metals’ investment newsletter. In the wake of the McPhillamys project suspension, I went against the market consensus, placing it as a Speculative Buy.

Why’s that?

I’m a contrarian investor!

Sure, the company copped a lot of hate as it lagged its peers in the gold bull market. But it is still generating significant free cashflows from its operations. That could continue for at least three or four quarters. What management could do with that is anyone’s guess."
 

Dutton vows nixed McPhillamys gold mine to go ahead under Coalition​

Peter Dutton has vowed to push a motion in the Senate to overturn the federal government’s decision on McPhillamys gold mine — and flagged changes to Indigenous heritage laws to prevent projects being blocked in future.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has vowed to get the McPhillamys gold mine project up and running again as he flagged changes to the Indigenous heritage laws that allowed the “disgraceful” decision by Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek to shut down the project outside Orange last month.
Mr Dutton said that the call by Ms Plibersek “sent a chill across the resources industry and painted a very bleak future for mining in our country”.

“Under a Coalition government I lead, today we announce that we will overturn this bad Labor decision and get this project up and running,” he vowed.

“Local communities lose out when Labor governments kill their opportunities for a political reason — all to curry favour with the Greens in inner-city seats.

“This was a shocking move which will potentially compromise other economic developments and, with it, increase our sovereign risk.”

 
finicky said:

Dutton vows nixed McPhillamys gold mine to go ahead under Coalition​

Peter Dutton has vowed to push a motion in the Senate to overturn the federal government’s decision on McPhillamys gold mine — and flagged changes to Indigenous heritage laws to prevent projects being blocked in future.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has vowed to get the McPhillamys gold mine project up and running again as he flagged changes to the Indigenous heritage laws that allowed the “disgraceful” decision by Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek to shut down the project outside Orange last month.
Mr Dutton said that the call by Ms Plibersek “sent a chill across the resources industry and painted a very bleak future for mining in our country”.

“Under a Coalition government I lead, today we announce that we will overturn this bad Labor decision and get this project up and running,” he vowed.

“Local communities lose out when Labor governments kill their opportunities for a political reason — all to curry favour with the Greens in inner-city seats.

“This was a shocking move which will potentially compromise other economic developments and, with it, increase our sovereign risk.”

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we will see

i hold RRL ( and am a former constituent of the Opposition leader )

i have heard plenty of politicians talk before
 
I have been underwater on RRL for 2 years, so when the share price dropped to 1.50 after the announcement of McPhiilamy I bit the bullet and brought enough shares to lower my share price to $2.00.
I don't have time to baby sit the share price but what would be a good way to make sure I protect my break even?
Sell now although It's moving to the upside?
Stop Loss?
Trailing stop loss
Really don't wont to be trapped here for another 2 years, but if the price runs not to miss out on a profit. haha
 
bsnews said:
I have been underwater on RRL for 2 years, so when the share price dropped to 1.50 after the announcement of McPhiilamy I bit the bullet and brought enough shares to lower my share price to $2.00.
I don't have time to baby sit the share price but what would be a good way to make sure I protect my break even?
Sell now although It's moving to the upside?
Stop Loss?
Trailing stop loss
Really don't wont to be trapped here for another 2 years, but if the price runs not to miss out on a profit. haha
Click to expand...

Well done on getting out even at this stage.

I sense there's some some psychology involved here for you to determine your next step, not just the fundamentals or technicals of the company and it's SP.

It's recovered very well so far, probably due to POG, but maybe there wasn't much value attributed to McPhilamy's anyway? It's back above the Plibo decision isn't it? I personally think the company is playing some games with the market on how hard it's going to be to find another site for the TFS. During the pre-feasibility work they would have considered multiple options for the site and have chosen the best one, not necessarily the only one. My guess is that they're playing a bit of politics and will fairly quickly come out with a solution that suits the local true traditional owners and NSW gov who want it to go ahead. If that happens in a 2-4 year period then add that onto the value of the company, whatever that value may be. If they come out with a new plan for McP's with a shortish time frame to a revised DFS, then that might give it a nice boost.

Bottom line at the moment may be, what do you think of Duketon and Tropicana and where is POG going?

The psychology part is the hardest. Are you emotionally attached to this company for whatever reason? I'd be trying to seperate the fact you had lost money and made it back on paper and just think of object investment plans and how you allocate your capital. Is it now best here, or is there a better place to park it?

Technically, going through the moving averages looks good, but has paused at a resistance point. If POG keeps running then I can't see why this wouldn't, now that the dust has settled. :2twocents

Screenshot 2024-09-22 at 10.25.59.png
 
Compared to me you're an ace, RRL still owes me $1.26 a share and I've been holding for like 8 years.
I have no faith in the management and not advice obviously but my loose expectation is that 2.25 is a cert and 2.50 is a possible first target. It looks to me as if it's in a basing formation and its resilience following the blocking of McPhillamys really surprised me - looks like the rest of the market thought it was a lousy project as well. A caution is that the slippery Albanese government will reverse its stance.
But with the expensive hedging out of the way and full exposure to the gold price my personal tendency will be to hold. You have the opportunity to get out without a loss and deploy cash to some other miner that is unhedged, e.g Greg Canavan of fat tail investment advisory has suggested this and his picks to transition to were GOR or WAF (I sold my WAF on the sovereign issue). Brian Chu of the same service however reckons it's a spec buy (therefore higher risk). I don't use stop losses so can't suggest a strategy.

Held

WEEKLY
big (71).gif
 
in theory mine owe me a whisker over $2.03 but i sold some in April 2023 @ $2.19 , so might be a whisker in front , if i were to sell tomorrow ( including brokerage )

but have no current plans to sell or add
 
I have sold even if the price of gold keeps on the up, I feel there are better option open. And for me it was a lot of cash tied up and I am sure the blood pressure was rising haha.
Thanks to each of the opinions offered it did help me make a call.
 
Sept 2024 update: Price hasn't stopped going higher since their McPhillamys project was scuttled by the Minister.

RRL announces development of their Havana Underground project. This is an extension/offshoot within their Tropicana mine. RRL holds a 30% interest in Tropicana with AngloGold Ashanti.

rrl6.PNG

A reminder that RRL's main mine is the underground mine, Duketon.
 
This has gone great since the Pilbo decision on 19 Aug. Musn't be worth much to the company. Hard to believe.

The 3rd quarter announcement season seems to have gone pretty well for goldies so far. Unhedged miners are making a motza.

Screenshot 2024-10-10 at 14.56.34.png


Screenshot 2024-10-10 at 14.56.55.png
 

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