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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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Science, such a wonderful thing.
You can use "The Science" to support anything you like.
It just depends on how you interpret it.
Here is some science.
I have no doubt there will be people who says its debunked, or criticise it because of who wrote it (Zionism etc etc).
I am putting it here because it uses real data, not a model.
The contestable part is the interpretation.
From Science Org

The natural immune protection that develops after a SARS-CoV-2 infection offers considerably more of a shield against the Delta variant of the pandemic coronavirus than two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, according to a large Israeli study that some scientists wish came with a “Don’t try this at home” label. The newly released data show people who once had a SARS-CoV-2 infection were much less likely than vaccinated people to get Delta, develop symptoms from it, or become hospitalized with serious COVID-19.
The study demonstrates the power of the human immune system, but infectious disease experts emphasized that this vaccine and others for COVID-19 nonetheless remain highly protective against severe disease and death.
The researchers also found that people who had SARS-CoV-2 previously and then received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine were more highly protected against reinfection than those who once had the virus and were still unvaccinated.
The study, conducted in one of the most highly COVID-19–vaccinated countries in the world, examined medical records of tens of thousands of Israelis, charting their infections, symptoms, and hospitalizations between 1 June and 14 August, when the Delta variant predominated in Israel. It’s the largest real-world observational study so far to compare natural and vaccine-induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2, according to its leaders.
No one in the study who got a new SARS-CoV-2 infection died—which prevented a comparison of death rates but is a clear sign that vaccines still offer a formidable shield against serious disease, even if not as good as natural immunity. Moreover, natural immunity is far from perfect. Although reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 are rare, and often asymptomatic or mild, they can be severe.

In another analysis, the researchers compared more than 14,000 people who had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and were still unvaccinated with an equivalent number of previously infected people who subsequently received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The team found that the unvaccinated group was twice as likely to be reinfected as the singly vaccinated.
Click to expand...
The article lots more info on data numbers, as well as comments from other peers in the field (I hate to call them experts, its such an overused term these days).
Mick
 
And just to prove to some state premiers that it is possible, we have the news that Denmark has scrapped all Covid -19 restrictions, as they reckon they have it under control.
From Danish Government Press Release

The current categorization of covid-19 as a socially critical disease expires on September 10, 2021. The government has decided not to extend this categorization. This is partly due to the large vaccination support, and partly to the strong epidemic control.

The decision not to extend covid-19's status as a socially critical disease was made after involving the professional reference group, the Epidemic Commission and the health authorities.
Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke states:
The epidemic is under control, we have record high vaccination rates. Therefore, on September 10, we can drop some of the special rules we have had to introduce in the fight against covid-19. The government has promised not to hold on to the measures any longer than was necessary, and there we are now. But even though we are in a good place right now, we are not out of the epidemic. And the government will not hesitate to act quickly if the pandemic again threatens important functions in our society.
Click to expand...
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
And just to prove to some state premiers that it is possible, we have the news that Denmark has scrapped all Covid -19 restrictions, as they reckon they have it under control.
From Danish Government Press Release


Mick
Click to expand...
It may be worth noting that Denmark is nearing the end of the summer season.

Perhaps a "wait and see what happens" approach, for the next 6 months, might be in order.
 
Sounds as though things are going up a notch in NSW.
I guess the two truckies, who were delta positive and drove from the East coast to the West coast, has put a scare up the authorities.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au www.theaustralian.com.au
From the article:
NSW authorised workers must receive at least one Covid jab in the next week in order to work outside their local areas, under new rules.
The change means rapid antigen testing will no longer be alternative to vaccination, NSW Health said.

“In order to work outside their area of concern, authorised workers must now have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by Monday 6 September,” the department said in a statement late on Friday.
 
mullokintyre said:
Science, such a wonderful thing.
You can use "The Science" to support anything you like.
It just depends on how you interpret it.
Here is some science.
I have no doubt there will be people who says its debunked, or criticise it because of who wrote it (Zionism etc etc).
I am putting it here because it uses real data, not a model.
The contestable part is the interpretation.
From Science Org


The article lots more info on data numbers, as well as comments from other peers in the field (I hate to call them experts, its such an overused term these days).
Mick
Click to expand...

my usual go-to is "is this article/opine peer reviewed" if not by a science-applied practitioner
i think Meredith gets a pass on that question. Thanks, Mick.

Meredith Wadman​


Meredith joined Science as a staff writer in September 2016, after covering biomedical research and its politics from Washington, D.C., for 20 years. Her current beat includes biology research, policy, and sexual harassment . She has been a staff writer for Nature and a contributing writer at Fortune. She has also written op-eds for The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and The Washington Post. Her first book, The Vaccine Race: Science, Politics and the Human Costs of Defeating Disease, was published by Viking (U.S./Canada) and Transworld (U.K.) in February 2017. Meredith earned her B.A. in Human Biology at Stanford University and began medical school at the University of British Columbia in her native Vancouver. She completed her medical degree as a Rhodes Scholar at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, and earned a master’s of science at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.
 


throughout most of human evolution, there were no epidemic diseases,
until...
no one ever got the measles, because measles didnt exist,
no one got smallpox, no one got the flu,
..when we domesticated animals...... into the barnyard they brought the diseases with them..."
"..cows and sheep for example...Measles now thought of as a benign disease..last 150 years measles has killed 200 million people.."
(paraphrased)
"...Smallpox likely came from camel pox
"...pigs - whooping cough
"...chickens - typhoid fever
" ...ducks - influenza
"...Leprosy likely came from buffalo
"...and the common cold from horses
"...so called hamburgerization of the rain forest exposed hemorrhagic fever viruses
"..including Lassa virus..and of course Ebola
"...bird smuggling brought West Nile virus
"...emerging pig pathogen streptococcus - meningitis
"...sick cows fed to people - mad cow disease
"...why is there so much concern about the 'bird flu' because the last time a bird flu virus
adapted to human beings it triggered the worst plague in human history

"Dr. Greger Told Us About Coronavirus Risk In 2008"​

80 infectious disease death PY P100k Americans.png

commend watch this at 1.5 speed
 
sptrawler said:
Well vaccine hesitancy, seems to have gone out the window.
Click to expand...

Nice at one level but it's just a raw number. No large impact in having 125,000 vaccinations in locations where infections are trending down and 80% of the population is vaccinated and 25,000 in other locations where only 20% of the population is vaccinated and infections are trending up. I have seen some projections where, even at the current rates of vaccinations, NSW will experience close to 3,000 infections per day.

Edit: This from the Burnet Institute. It makes for grim reading I'm sorry to say.

Focus on contact tracing, lockdowns in opening up

The need for lockdowns and effective contact tracing should to be included in the debate over plans to reopen Australia, according to Professor Allan Saul.
www.burnet.edu.au
 
Last edited:
Had a conversation with one of my kids yesterday.
His neighbour is a bit strange, sort of bloke who complains about everyone else's dog while his own roams around the neighbourhood freely.
And it turns out he is an anti vaxxer.
Son thought he would see how the old bugger was doing and stopped to talk to him during the week.
Son mentioned that the and his other half had their Pfizer injection the week before and neighbour went off his tree.
The final parting word was that one of his favourite pastimes during lockdown was to book a vaxxine spot either locally or via the gov hot spot, then cancel a few days before.
Son won't be bothering doing the neighbourly thing again.
Mick
 
Joules MM1 said:

Setting it Straight | Doherty Website

Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty explores all things infection and immunity in a new weekly column, Setting it Straight, exclusive to the Doherty Institute website. Read more.
www.doherty.edu.au www.doherty.edu.au

engaging reading

and this: https://twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty
Click to expand...
You have to respect people like Doherty who have had a lifetime of devotion to their work and at 80, is still going strong.
Nothwithstanding that, there are some who think that the Doherty institue is being used by the feds and others to push their biews.

From Matt Barrie
On the 23rd of August Prime Minister Morrison said in Parliament “The plan as we set out very clearly about…that when we reach 70%, and we reach 80%, we can move through to phase B of that plan, those marks have been set by the Doherty analysis that was undertaken Mr Speaker”.

I spent a late evening reading it.

Neither of these statements are true and the report is being misrepresented.

The report is neither an economic model nor does it set any targets.

It is a report commissioned by the National Cabinet to model health scenarios going from Phase A (where we are now- suppressing Covid) to Phase B (reducing lockdowns, ramping up flights into the country and reducing quarantine) of the National Plan with various levels of vaccination targets. Note that there is also Phase C and Phase D of opening up. The Doherty Report doesn’t look at these phases.

Specifically, based on a set of assumptions, it models what daily new infections, workplace absenteeism from sickness, occupied ward beds, occupied ICU beds and daily deaths would look like under scenarios of 50%, 60%, 70% and 80% vaccination rates, for those aged 16 and above and based on two doses of vaccination for each person. About 80% of the Australian population are aged 16 and over, so these targets are actually 40%, 48%, 56% and 64% of the total population.

It doesn’t look like anyone has actually read the report.

They only run the simulation for 180 days.
1630195869975.png
Click to expand...
The article is long, and probably needs to be read in conjunction with the Doherty report.
But it does make some valid points.
Its not so much a criticism of Doherty or his institute as they modelled what the Government asked them to do. Its more a criticism of those who took the governments word for what it was supposed to have said.
In the end, its still just a model, and may or may not bear any resemblance to reality.
Mick
 
From discussions with some who know way more than I do, the Doherty Institute seeded its model with 30 cases nationally to ensure the virus did not die out naturally. The 70% vaccination number thrown about by many is actually relating to the population eligible for a vaccination (at that time) which is some 55% of the entire population and that testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine would manage outbreaks but still require a lockdown of some sort. It was a very cautious document in its modeling apparently. If cases go up and the tracing, etc become overwhelmed and less able to cope all bets were off. So how are the contract tracing teams going despite working their butts off?

Tis is one model predicting the infections.

chrisbillington.net

Progression of the COVID outbreak in New South Wales

Plot of cases and estimated R_eff for the COVID outbreak in New South Wales
chrisbillington.net

The methodology is at the bottom of the page. Dr Billington is a physicist at the University of Melbourne. The home page has other data which may be of interest.
 
Belli said:
Nice at one level but it's just a raw number. No large impact in having 125,000 vaccinations in locations where infections are trending down and 80% of the population is vaccinated and 25,000 in other locations where only 20% of the population is vaccinated and infections are trending up. I have seen some projections where, even at the current rates of vaccinations, NSW will experience close to 3,000 infections per day.

Edit: This from the Burnet Institute. It makes for grim reading I'm sorry to say.

Focus on contact tracing, lockdowns in opening up

The need for lockdowns and effective contact tracing should to be included in the debate over plans to reopen Australia, according to Professor Allan Saul.
www.burnet.edu.au
Click to expand...
Very true Belli, I was reading in the W.A weekend paper, the affluent areas are way ahead in Vaccine uptake, the working class and lower socio areas still have a lot of hesitancy.
 
sptrawler said:
Very true Belli, I was reading in the W.A weekend paper, the affluent areas are way ahead in Vaccine uptake, the working class and lower socio areas still have a lot of hesitancy.
Click to expand...

That is really bad. I'll be honest and to say I have little sympathy for the Derick's and Susanne's doing it tough on $4k per week and $100k in the bank and whining about not being able to have canapes and drinks on the beach as it's 100 meters outside of their 5k zone would be an understatement. However, for the Raj's and Indira's living high on the hog on $1,500 a week and $500 in the bank I have a different attitude. I'm in the Derick group without a Susanne by the way.

The whole approach has been a shambles from the top in my view. To me it doesn't appear there was much attempt to engage with respected leaders of various cultural groups to encourage vaccinations, a wasted opportunity of five months or more when it was observed the effect of the spread of Delta in India, the UK, through Europe or the US to establish the infastructure for vaccinations when vaccines became readily available here, not correcting misinformation concerning AZ v Pfizer (no reputable clinician has ever said AZ is a bad vaccine just that it has a slightly higher but still extremely low risk for certain age groups), poor targeting the peoples of the First Nations who have a higher risk. And the list goes on. Just my take on things. Others will have a different view of the matter as is their right.
 

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