DJIA next day forecast

[jmbonni]

Hello everybody.
Here you will find the forecasts review for the next trading day of the Dow Jones.

 

[jmbonni]

March 3, should down.

 

[jmbonni]

March 4, should down.

 

[tech/a]

March 4, should down.
View attachment 100962

Why?
Is this a guess or analysis?
What is the analysis.
How far down and why?
Or how far up and why?

In a situation like we have a call for down days isn't rocket science.
When they find a vaccine a call for Up days wont be either?
Sorry I dont get the point of a simple line chart and a comment of Should be down.
Its a no brainer call.

 

[jmbonni]

CAUTION!
After a huge computer calculation an opposite trend emerged.
This is a very bad time actually for stocks. I suggest to wait.
Trend SHOULD up...

 

[jmbonni]

>>tech/a
The trends are calculated from few and simple data I get just after the us stock market closes, using a genetic deep learning soft (perso).
It gives generally good results but may need a lot of time to compute.
What about the trends? I think that what is underlying the value of the DJ (or other indexes) is generally stronger of what happens in the day. But what happens today may enter in the playgame later.
For example, the huge down of this past week may be linked to a too much evaluated stocks; and not so much to coronavirus. Some goods analitycs expected a down at the beginning of 2020, up to 20%, before they back buy stocks (tech) for a secure 5% profit this year.
Good luck

 

[Skate]

>>tech/a
The trends are calculated from few and simple data I get just after the us stock market closes, using a genetic deep learning soft (perso).
It gives generally good results but may need a lot of time to compute. What about the trends? I think that what is underlying the value of the DJ (or other indexes) is generally stronger of what happens in the day. But what happens today may enter in the playgame later.For example, the huge down of this past week may be linked to a too much evaluated stocks; and not so much to coronavirus. Some goods analitycs expected a down at the beginning of 2020, up to 20%, before they back buy stocks (tech) for a secure 5% profit this year. Good luck

@jmbonni I'm genuinely interest in hearing more about how you go about evaluating the markets moving forward. I've posted a few screen captures & have a few questions. It would be helpful to hear your take on the US futures & mid trading of the DAX & FTSE & how they tie into our markets tomorrow.

# Time Stamp
12:13am Thursday 5th March 2020

US Futures before the open

DAX - current trading result

FTSE - current trading result

My Questions
1. The DAX & the FTSE are having an up day, the US futures are up, does that mean the US markets will have a great day today?
2. Will the information above be correlated in our markets tomorrow, meaning - is the ASX in for a good trading day when the markets open at 10am?
3. Is this the information you use to formulate your market methodology?

Skate.

 

[jmbonni]

>>Skate
I understand you question as: "if futures go up before the market opens the stocks or indices underlyed on the futures will go up also, while the market is open"
This cannot be true. Just because the future reflect the underlying price at the precise moment M.
Yesterday you had seen the DJ future going up, and finally the Dow Jone finished down.
In calm and steamed trending period this may be usefull, but not allways.

International market are not so much linked by themself, at least for the next day.
Yesterday CAC40 gained but DJ goes down later.

The market should be understand as an inner tube inside a wheel. The market is the air inside the inner tube, somewhat under pressure. It has few exchange with the outside.
Now imagine the time as the wheel is turning. When the wheel meet an obstacle, the inner tube is compresed and this produces a shock wave. This shock wave runs forward and backward. As the inner tube is a finite wound up world, the shock wave will have irremediably an effect (big or small)... later.

Thanks for you comments

 

[Skate]

>>Skate
I understand you question as: "if futures go up before the market opens the stocks or indices underlyed on the futures will go up also, while the market is open"
This cannot be true. Just because the future reflect the underlying price at the precise moment M.
Yesterday you had seen the DJ future going up, and finally the Dow Jone finished down.
In calm and steamed trending period this may be usefull, but not allways.

International market are not so much linked by themself, at least for the next day.
Yesterday CAC40 gained but DJ goes down later.

The market should be understand as an inner tube inside a wheel. The market is the air inside the inner tube, somewhat under pressure. It has few exchange with the outside.
Now imagine the time as the wheel is turning. When the wheel meet an obstacle, the inner tube is compresed and this produces a shock wave. This shock wave runs forward and backward. As the inner tube is a finite wound up world, the shock wave will have irremediably an effect (big or small)... later.

Thanks for you comments

@jmbonni thank you for your reply & explanation.

Moreover
I've read many articles where top traders will use a non-related metrics as an additional conditional entry criteria & your post was leading me to that conclusion, thus the interest.

Its been test & correlated
I remember reading an article many years ago where Nick Radge backtested the correlation between the US close on Friday to the ASX open on Monday. After a 10 year test period more than 50% of the time the correlation failed. This is what I also gleaned form your post.

Just for the record
I'm doing a follow-up post "how the over night trading panned out". Our natural assumption is to correlate these trading results into our mindset "thinking", "hoping", "praying" that the ASX will follow their lead today.

Today's - ASX SPI 200

Skate.

 

[jmbonni]

March 5: DJIA should down (from an early stage computed result)

 

[Skate]

March 5: DJIA should down (from an early stage computed result)
View attachment 100988

The trends are calculated from few and simple data I get just after the us stock market closes, using a genetic deep learning soft (perso).

Interesting...
@jmbonni I've had a look at your website, may I ask what is the inputs/formula that is used in your deep learning software to arrive at the green line (future prediction) going forward?.

Interpretation of the green extension line
In your last post - the March 5th chart DJIA should (sic: have been a) down (sic: day) but the chart didn't pan out that way OR am I misreading the value of the (green extension line) on the chart?

Clarification is needed
Is the green line on the March 5th chart indicating (predicting) the future market direction?

Skate.

 

[jmbonni]

@Skate
1/ inputs Say I just use DJIA OHLCV end of day time serie data.
2/ formula There is no formula. The deep learning process is like an adaptative logic running inside a neural network. The process is like an avanced recursive learning from past to future.
Using formula is like constructing a model (ie forecasting the weather). You start from known data points and you propagate the scheme to other points thanks to mathématica formulas. This is NOT what I use and I think a Model is not the way to do because each day has its new rules. A mathematic Model cannot really adapt itself.
3/ the green line is the forecast, right. Each dot (the 3) represents the prediction of the close value, calculated from data one day before. so the last dot represents the next trading day close value forecast calculated from the last real known data.
4/ interpretation The green line must be interpreted as a day trend, not the daily range/magnitude which is rarely good. So the March 5th chart shows that the learning processed computed an up trend (green line from dot 1 to 2) for March 4th which is confirmed by the blue line (real data), and shows a down trend (green line from dot 2 to 3 and last) for the next trading day (March 5th).
But you have to be aware
a/ that the forecast trend goes is over the previous real value for an up trend,
b/ that the forecast trend goes is lower that the previous real value for an down trend.
Otherwise an interpretation is not possble.

Anyway you have to consider this system in conjonction with other kind of information

(Sorry for my english writting, my mother tongue is the french)

 

[qldfrog]

@Skate
1/ inputs Say I just use DJIA OHLCV end of day time serie data.
2/ formula There is no formula. The deep learning process is like an adaptative logic running inside a neural network. The process is like an avanced recursive learning from past to future.
Using formula is like constructing a model (ie forecasting the weather). You start from known data points and you propagate the scheme to other points thanks to mathématica formulas. This is NOT what I use and I think a Model is not the way to do because each day has its new rules. A mathematic Model cannot really adapt itself.
3/ the green line is the forecast, right. Each dot (the 3) represents the prediction of the close value, calculated from data one day before. so the last dot represents the next trading day close value forecast calculated from the last real known data.
4/ interpretation The green line must be interpreted as a day trend, not the daily range/magnitude which is rarely good. So the March 5th chart shows that the learning processed computed an up trend (green line from dot 1 to 2) for March 4th which is confirmed by the blue line (real data), and shows a down trend (green line from dot 2 to 3 and last) for the next trading day (March 5th).
But you have to be aware
a/ that the forecast trend goes is over the previous real value for an up trend,
b/ that the forecast trend goes is lower that the previous real value for an down trend.
Otherwise an interpretation is not possble.

Anyway you have to consider this system in conjonction with other kind of information

(Sorry for my english writting, my mother tongue is the french)

Bienvenu et intéressé par ce réseau

I am interested as well....

 

[Skate]

@Skate
1/ inputs Say I just use DJIA OHLCV end of day time serie data.
2/ formula There is no formula. The deep learning process is like an adaptative logic running inside a neural network. The process is like an avanced recursive learning from past to future.
Using formula is like constructing a model (ie forecasting the weather). You start from known data points and you propagate the scheme to other points thanks to mathématica formulas. This is NOT what I use and I think a Model is not the way to do because each day has its new rules. A mathematic Model cannot really adapt itself.
3/ the green line is the forecast, right. Each dot (the 3) represents the prediction of the close value, calculated from data one day before. so the last dot represents the next trading day close value forecast calculated from the last real known data.
4/ interpretation The green line must be interpreted as a day trend, not the daily range/magnitude which is rarely good. So the March 5th chart shows that the learning processed computed an up trend (green line from dot 1 to 2) for March 4th which is confirmed by the blue line (real data), and shows a down trend (green line from dot 2 to 3 and last) for the next trading day (March 5th).
But you have to be aware
a/ that the forecast trend goes is over the previous real value for an up trend,
b/ that the forecast trend goes is lower that the previous real value for an down trend.
Otherwise an interpretation is not possble.

Anyway you have to consider this system in conjonction with other kind of information

(Sorry for my english writting, my mother tongue is the french)

Thanks mate..

This could turn into a very educational thread, I would love to hear more on your findings & the application of your findings in real terms.

Tell me more, I’m all ears.

Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

This could make my crystal ball redundant

 

[tech/a]

Smoke and Mirrors

Seems prevalent in the financial fraternity.

 

[jmbonni]

No lose time to take advantage of the forecast because meanwhile the gap can narrow rapidly. You can use the Telegram channel "TheMoreTime" which displays an alert as soos as a new forecast chart has been released.

 

[qldfrog]

Tobe honest in the short term it is
4pc up, then 4pc down, today is 4pc down and i would bet it will be up by tomorrow morning
Suckers buy the dip, big offload from big money, then when this atops and crash again Feds pumps or media move into a : vaccine found....
Soon overpositive news
One of the trouble of neural
networks is that learning is done on the expectations than future behaviour is an extension of the past
Great to recognise car plates or faces less for market movement where it acts when you think about it as a master Chartist.
nothing wrong with that as this is what i attempt to do in my system, but do not expect a miraculous always right answer
Just another good tool

 

[qldfrog]

But let's not be unfair, it is a great subject as i often toyed with the idea of using neural networks in a system, after all this is the area i majored in, 30y ago and the tools have greatly improved since

 

[jmbonni]

March 6th: Dow Jones should go down